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Theta

Trade Plan 12/15/2022 TP1> if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4078, we can test > 4108 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221 TP2> if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4078 > we can test > 4054 > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped) Volume Profile 12/14/2022 - Unfair High 4091 (Below Y High) FOMC DUMP, and no BUYERS. Volume accumulation setup > It is forming since yesterday when SELLERS were super aggressive, strong SELLERS entering their positions in Rotation Area, with a clear change on the Volume Profile TREND. Strong Sellers who were accumulating their positions are likely to defend their positions and their interests. So, when the price returns to the volume accumulation area > MAIN POC 4078 (12/14) and MAIN POC 4054 (12/13), Strong Sellers start to defend their positions aggressively. This means that strong buyers start aggressive buying activity to drive the price upwards again. Strong sellers defend their short positions by aggressive sell-off which moves the price lower again. Here is a picture to demonstrate this (Short trade scenario): *This is a 50/50 Game, trade plan & risk management and trade management is mandatory
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by IronMan_Trader
Is Option Buying a Loser Game ? The picture above is a LOTTO PLAY I took this morning, end up buying 4250 ES CALL 6DTE for an avg of $11 at 8:07am (we were trading around 4054 level) , after the report in 2 minutes ES spiked to 4180 and my options price went to $30 Great I was up +160%, but with IV CRUSH + MKT HEADING LOWER 50 points before the bell, my OPTIONS that I got before 8:10am were losing money already.... but how If my entry was at 4054 and we were trading almost +100 points higher ? - Because when you buy an option you have all the factors against you, the probability of success are too small, as you have TIME (Theta) against you + the IV (Implied Volatility) you have not only to be right, but rely on the trend to follow, every minute you are wrong you are losing... Even if the market is sideways and not moving, your options have expiration and every second count, so you better be a DIRECTIONAL HERO and NAIL the trade. So today I was up 160% and end up losing this trade !! Part of the Game, as I call this a LOTTO PLAY ! It was BAD LUCK today, YES and NO, lack of liquidity was another factor (when you trade ES OPTIONS), at this chart you can see there was no orders getting filled at 30, mine didn't get filled, only a lucky trader got out at 25.25 !! After that it was a DUMP and NASTY day! To answer the question, I would say it depends on how you TRADE, but Please don't get me wrong, I do day trade 99% of the time on the BUY SIDE (Buying CALL or SELLING PUT), but 99% of my long time frame trades are on the SELL SIDE of OPTIONS (Selling CALL or Selling PUT) to have probability in my favor. I hope this can help you to understand why most of the times you end up losing money on the BUY SIDE of OPTIONS, the GREEKS are against you !
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
Trade Plan 12/14/2022 TP1> if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4054, we can test > 4081 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221 TP2> if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4054 > we can test > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped) *All those levels will be INVALID as tomorrow 2:00 PM we will have FOMC Interest Rates REPORT ! GET READY for LOTTO TRADES. $ES can move again +100/150 handles.... Yep, believe me or not we are going to survive tomorrow also !! Daily PIN BAR candle fading all the CPI pre-mkt move. STRONG HIGH = SUPER BEARISH / REVERSAL Reason I'm Flat and waiting to short, we have FOMC Tomorrow 12/14/2022 by 2:00pm.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE No New Trades Today I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day. Overall POP = 84% POP = Probability of Profit *Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13). With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures. *Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio> +50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro) +500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini) My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
1
There is a possibility of retesting the resistance!THETA had a range trend during the last week. After the selling pressure, the price of THETA broke the support of the $1 range and pulled back to this resistance, and is still decreasing and moving towards the lower support intended for it. The support is located between $0.765 to $0.590, and if the price hits this area, it can bring a positive reaction. In the daily time frame, we see a correction wave with 38% correction, which considering the price reaction to this range, we can still consider the power of sellers to be higher. Therefore, the minimum we expect is a retest of the previous support level in the range of $0.85. Also, we can see a range trend in the 4-hour time frame. Before the price continues to fall, there is a possibility of retesting the resistance in the range of $0.95 to $1. Because in the 1-hour time frame, the ascending trend line has broken down, and in the event of divergence, the probability of falling to the supports increases. The additional point is that the current resistance that the price reacted to in the last candles also overlaps with the midline of the descending channel and has great power to push the price back toward the supports.
by MonoCoinSignal
2
Theta Network RiskWe read charts and we read signals. We like to look for/spot reversals because if one is successful at spoting a trend change or breakout before it happens the chances increase for higher gains. When buying near support levels/bottom prices, the risk is always small (very tight stop-loss) while the potential rewards can be great. Look at Theta Network (THETAUSDT) now, bottomed out. If one is smart and do decide to buy after doing their research, the stop-loss can be at tight, at 10-20%... And if you get it right and the market turns... You can be looking at 40%, 60%, 90%, 150%, 200% or more on the way up. That's the beauty of trading cryptocurrency or anything for that matter. We have a maximum risk of 100%. But the potential profits have no limits... And we know that crypto grows 10, 20, 30x on bullish cycles. A few Xs in every bullish wave. Of course, there is no need to risk 100% ever. A tight stop-loss as mentioned before, limits your risk to 10-20%. So you only need to plan, win a few ones and many can go wrong and you still win in the end. We have to be smart though... We have 4 daily candles closing green. The trading volume is still low, nothing is yet confirmed. But after a lower low, short and long-term, with bear volume going lower and lower... We know for sure that soon the market will turn. How you approach it is your own choice. I am just sharing my thoughts. This is not financial advice. Thank you for reading my friend. Happy weekend. Happy holidays. Thanksgiving, all that stuff. I love you. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
2