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Third-in-third-wave

How Low Will It Go Part DeuxPrior ABC Ideas closed for blowing through projected pivot; we're dealing with a monster here, not a garden variety correction. Topping formation in Wyckoff distribution. Will sell like Hell, then bounce back into a lower high zone, then sell again... and again. Looks impulsive. We clearly in Three not a C, which should've turned today. Three typically = 1.62 x One, so likely headed to 4365 for pivot to Four. NB: Three can extend up to 2.618 of One, although uncommon... watch and see. Four will be ~ half as tall as Two by alternating EW rule, won't bounce very high and can't pass One. Five can be ferocious, may extend up to 1.62 x One but is typically same length, although commonly it measures .618% extension area of the first & third waves combined measured against the high in the fourth wave. So to get Five need to see Four. This chart a wag and guess. It's goin pretty far south IMO. WOULD NOT JUMP IN BOTTOM FISHING YET!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
39
|wave5 of 3rd of a Third of a 3rd|elliotwave|WAVE3*UPDATED*LONG|As the title suggests, here is the updated chart of my third of a third of a third elliot wave hypothesis. Expect a near vertical rally from todays low, as we are within a sub-wave3 of the first wave 5 having completed the larger degree wave 4 of the even larger wave 3. Next will be consecutive wave 4 wave 5 wave 4 wave 5 of higher degrees to complete the entire pattern sometime this Spring. Feel free to ask any questions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by thatsblatzphemy
US 30 in ABC Correction? Road to ATH; in Handle of CupVolume lessens on rising prices, increases on downdrafts. RSI divergent. Small caps have reached .50 Fibo retrace off September's lower high. SP500 and Dow have a gap to fill down to the 0.50 Fibo. Three-day rally feels like a B wave, chaotic and widely fluctuant. If so, expect C wave down to the gapfill at the breakout point from Cup near 26300/SandP 2942. A hedged short here is probably a fair R/R as EOM 'window-dressing' is likely to finish what seems to be a modest correction. The ABC is consistent with Intermediate Wave 2 of a Primary wave 3; markets should enter third-in-third wave on completion of the modest correction. A severe tankoff would invalidate this hypothesis! IMO another major October downdraft is unlikely as these rarely happen two years in a row; but anything is possible in this mad market. Taking a small short position on indexes with the gap up in AM on 9/27; this gap will very likely fill in day; first week of October is likely to be choppy. Completing a corrective wave might coincide with positive trade news in Mid-October; if the outcome is disappointing expect a deeper selloff. Still very chancy. Indicators to watch: RUT strong support at 1500 (IWM 150, now trading near 153); small caps have been a leading signal canary. I'd close shorts with IWM at 150; DIA at 264; SPY at 294, if and when they get to these prices. An ABC complete wave could well provide launch point for next bullrun. Longer-term still Bullish going into New Year, I'm not convinced this appearance of H&S in the monthly chart is really going to rollover. We shall see! This isn't investment advice; just an idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
US Equities Alternative Bullish Hypothesis: In Primary EW 3?!Risk is terrific for both longs and shorts at this juncture; I am sidelined, patiently and prudently waiting. In a previous idea I hypothesized a double bottom possibly in October. It is possible the markets are grinding out a near-term bottom at this consolidation zone now. Markets hold tenaciously to this consolidation zone beneath ATH. The September pullback may be nothing more than an Intermediate wave 2 in a Primary Wave 3. We are near a Fibo retracement level off the Cup which seems to be supported, although support is illusionary and can break sharply and suddenly, making longs as risky as shorts. Shorting is terrifically risky now, as delegates are in trade talks in China atm, as a single optimistic tweet could unleash coiled up Bullish energy at this level, possibly driving prices to new ATH in Nov/Dec and another mad January rally into a Primary Wave 5. Donald manipulates the financial markets, and he clearly needs it to be propped up to support his re-election campaign. Betting against the Donald has historically proven to be a poor risk. Direction is highly uncertain at this point; it could break either way, but we saw in August after intense distribution the prices broke to upside. It is certainly possible the Bears have been ground out and equities are poised to move higher. October actually tends to be one of the more Bullish months on average, although most notable crashes and many corrections also have occurred at this time of year, giving it an undeserved bad rep; it is by no means a certain bet to expect another, after last year's savagery. We do have a Cup and Handle clearly formed, and if this be truly the Handle, then the next move is continuation to upside, as depicted in this graph: www.investopedia.com I offer this idea as a precautionary tale to plungers; please FGS do not bet the farm on a further correction! I closed shorts today, as a massive rally could continue. Any disappointment in global events will spark a selloff but optimism over trade could as easily drive prices to a new ATH. R/R is terrible now! As always, this hypothesis is just another WAG, definitely NOT investment advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
BCHUSD - Long Term PredictionOn a lower degree, I posted earlier that we're most likely heading up into a third wave. This was, however, on a lower degree. I also wanted to take a look at the bigger picture since the hardfork of BCH. I believe we have finished the second wave and have started into the third wave on Cycle-degree. That would mean we're presently in wave 3 of a wave 3, so I am expecting an interesting period ahead. Extending on Cycle-degree, the target for this wave 3 would be upwards of $4.200. Usual disclaimer: Only idiots blame other people for their own mistakes and actions. 'Nuff said.
KRAKEN:BCHUSDLong
by Pvgeldrop
2
And boom goes the dynamite!My previously published chart called that a series of 1 & 2 waves had developed. Price looks like it is now dropping in third wave fashion. There's as slight adjustment to the count which makes this wave (3) of ((3)) of iii of (iii). In the news: Bitcoin Miners Miss the First BIP 148 “Deadline” bitcoinmagazine.com but, price was already dropping... it's as if markets are irrational and driven by a "social mood" or "crowd psychology" rather than exogenous causes like the news ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Kappy
7