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Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (25.07-29.07).Last week brought weakening of the euro against the dollar, which was consistent with my assumptions, which I presented in the last daily reports. On Friday also they came to break the bottom of the nearly three-week trend side. Overcoming support at 1,0972-81 may suggest a further weakening of the euro against the dollar, towards the level of 1.0909 (at least after the announcement of a referendum). At this level (1.0909), I expect to activate the demand side, which will certainly defend that level. Any break 1.0909 support will indicate the weakness of the euro, which further confirms the downward trend. In this case, the aim in the longer term may be last year's lows.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 30.06 / 16The technical situation on eurodolarze has not changed much from yesterday's session. Demand side all the time trying to correct previous declines, but from what we see upward movements are limited. The demand side was able to lead to the abolition of the 38.2% fibo recent decline from 1.1427 - 1.0909. Wednesday's breakout above 1.1111 may suggest that the correction has not finished yet and perhaps demand side will take yet another attempt to attack towards 1,1168-88. Previously, however, the demand will have to overcome the resistance level 1.1130. After completion of the correction expect further declines towards the recent lows. Higher price levels will be a great opportunity to play for a short time. In the case of taking the initiative by the supply side, the Eurodollar will head towards 1.1050 and 1.1013. Overcoming these levels will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1.0909. In the version of the more pessimistic, Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825. Fundamental situation is not conducive to a common currency and hard in this case to assume that the current correction can turn into a greater movement upward. European currency not only pregnant but Brexit on the horizon, we also have a referendum in Italy, which applies to limit the political role of the Senate.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for the pair EUR / USD on 28/06 / 16- BreFundamental analysis is not conducive at the moment increases (Brexit, independence of Scotland), but we can not rule them out. On the markets, the situation begins to stabilize and demand side is trying to take the initiative. At the moment the currency pair is oscillating in the zone of resistance 1,1058-80, which correspond to minima of 14 and 15 March. Overcoming this zone will demand, to attack towards Tuesday's high of 1.1111. A further aim of the camp, the bulls will be the resistance zone extending between 1,1168-88 (38.2% sequentially and 50% fibo recent declines and the peak of 24 June). Especially this zone should be a strong barrier to demand. Considering the uncertainty that surrounds markets at the moment, it's hard to predict whether any upward movement is the beginning of bigger increases, or merely a correction in further declines. If I had to define clearly personally I assume that it is a corrective movement, after which we will see another wave of declines. Accordingly, the levels of 1,1168-88 may be a great opportunity to play for a short time. Whereas the puncture resistance of these will open the way towards recent highs. However, this option now seems unrealistic. In the case of the next wave of declines, we will return towards the last low of 1.1013 and then the supply will head towards 1.0971 and 1.0909. In a more pessimistic version of the Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825. In my opinion, a variant of the local correction and further declines seem to be more likely.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 27.06 / 16 BrexitAt the moment the currency pair is moving around the level of 1.1022, which is around 23.6% fibo abolition of inheritance from 1.1427 - 1.0909. Given the recent dramatic declines and no new minimum (during the Monday session), we can assume that the demand side begins to catch his breath. It may suggest the development of local correction toward resistance 1,1058-80. Further targets will be the levels of 1.11 and 1,1168-88 (38.2% sequentially and 50% fibo recent declines and the peak of 24 June). Especially this zone should be a strong barrier to demand. The single currency is under pressure and higher price levels can be a great opportunity to open short positions. Given the large nervousness and uncertainty that prevails at the moment, we may see further declines without prior correction. In this variant, the supply will head towards 1.0971 and 1.0909. In a more pessimistic version of the Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825. In my opinion, a variant of the local correction and further declines seem to be more likely.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 24.06 / 16Moving on to the analysis of the Eurodollar, we can assume that today's growth should continue in the coming hours. At 23:05 we met YouGov poll, which points to win supporters to remain in the EU (52% -48%). In my opinion, a wave of optimism and runoff further positive information, we should see increases in the resistance level at 1,1495-1,1530 (the upper limit of the local channel growth and peaks at the beginning of May). At these levels, I would expect some correction, which could bear part of the recent increases. After completing the adjustment will be possible further increases toward year's high of 1.1617. Strong support is the level of 1,1295-1,1330 and it does not seem that during Friday's session could be undermined. Variant further increases over the next session, is currently the base variant.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 06/23/16The technical situation on the Eurodollar market remained virtually unchanged, despite the volatility we have seen in recent days. Currency pair moves continuously in the vicinity of a strong zone 1,1300-30, which I think is crucial for further direction. Looking more broadly at the eurodollar market, we can see that the traffic growth, which was launched in December last year is in full swing. Especially well it can be seen on the chart with the interval of the day, who presented below. In case of victory of supporters remain in the EU single currency will gain. The purpose of the demand for this embodiment will last peaks at levels of 1.1416 and 1.1617. In the case of Brexitu investors flowing in the direction of the dollar. At the moment, hard to estimate the scale of declines, while the first props will level 1,1136-44, followed by 1.10 and 1.0825. Personally, I think that Britain will remain in the structures of the EU, which will drive further growth. Bearing in mind the nature of the pigeons of the last FOMC meeting, the dollar should soon lose. Turning now to the end only to the Thursday session, it seems that the dominant party should be the demand side. Recent polls show from 23:00 to lead supporters of the EU, which should support the demand. Keeping the eurodollar rate above the level of 1.1295, it will be a clear signal for the further growth. In this case, we should head for the resistance level at 1.1416 and 1,1376-82. Alternative version of a return towards level 1,1213-37, after earlier defeat of support 1.1295.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 21.06 / 16Fundamentals at the moment, supports the single currency, but keep in mind that the next polls can change the image on the Eurodollar market. From a technical point of view, the currency pair hovers just above the level of 1.1295, which last week was a strong resistance. If the demand side thoughts on further increases, the level should be defended. In this variant, we can count on further increases toward the maximum of Monday's 1.1383 and 1.1416 (peak of 9 June). In the longer term (several weeks) can be growth toward year's high of 1.1617. Otherwise, breaking 1.1295 level (last maxima) and 1.1278 (Friday shutdown) may indicate that the increases were temporary and return towards the last minima. The first supply will head towards 1,1213-35. Further props will be levels 1.1189 and 1.1144. Considering the confusion of the referendum in the UK and hence a large oscillation, which can foster this, you should be careful when making investment decisions.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (20.06-24.06)A currency pair is currently just below the important resistance zone of 1,1295-1,1330 can be seen especially on the daily chart. On the impact of the Eurodollar they will certainly have another opinion polls, but from a technical point of view, to overcome the resistance to open the way towards the last peak at 1.1416. Bearing in mind the pressures associated with the referendum seems to be more likely further weakening of the single currency and consequently, a return towards the recent lows 1.1189 and 1,1131-44. In the event of further declines in supply can put towards 1,1058-80. The level of defense for the scenario of succession is above the level of 1.1330. Regardless of the situation that prevails in the British Isles, we may agree that the single currency is holding up well. To sum up my thoughts, we can conclude that in the first part of the week the single currency may lose (if the date of the referendum will not be changed) and then to the dollar should be the reverse (back to concerns about the lack of further interest rate hikes in the US). Version alternative involves changing the date of the referendum (postpone), which will support the common currency. This option will allow the demand side, on the attack on the resistance zone of 1,1295-1,1330.
by RobertPapon
1
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 06/16/16The situation on the eurodolarze changes as the proverbial kaleidoscope. Despite the break on Tuesday Zone support levels and reached a low of 1.1189, falls on the main currency pair not continued. On Wednesday we witnessed the execution of the alternative scenario, which assumed a return to the vicinity 1,1300-30 level. The demand side has received support in the form of a pigeon's FOMC statement. (Demand led to the abolition of the last half of the decline from 1.1416). At the moment Eurodollar hovering around 1.1265, and the very fact of maintaining the exchange rate above 1.1235 might suggest an attack on the last maxima. In this case, demand is a target for area 1,1300-30 and subsequently, the resistance level of 1.1362 and 1.1416. Considering the uncertainty before the referendum in the UK, it seems that the demand side, could take full advantage of his chance. The single currency is under pressure and in my opinion the higher price levels, can be a great opportunity to open short positions. Is today's killing up will be short-lived, it will show the next hours. (At the moment, the current upward movement can be seen as a correction of recent decline). Signal pro-trend will be back towards the recent support levels at 1,1213-35. While breaking the 1.1189 level will confirm that the actual killing up was only a correction of the recent declines. In this case, we will go towards support at 1.1144 and 1,1058-80.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 14/06/16The currency pair has corrected some recent declines (1,1417-1,1235) and reached the level of 1.1303. Strong resistance remains the 1.1330 level (minima of 6 June). If the demand side will lead to a break in / at resistance will be open way toward 1.1376 and 1.1417. The signal for a stronger upward movement may be weaker data from the US. Otherwise, the supply will head towards a strong zone of support levels located on levels 1,1216-35. It should be borne in mind that the most important information for the euro-dollar, will flow only on Wednesday, when it will be announced the statement after a meeting of the Federal Reserve.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 05/27/16Movement of growth that occurred in the last two days we can qualify as a correction of the recent declines. Currency pair found support at 1.1129 while strong resistance level remains 1,1213-16. (For the record, let me add that these are minimums of 23 and 25 April. In addition, this level coincides with the 38.2% fibo increases from 0.8231 to 1.6038 level, which at the moment is quite a barrier to demand). This does not mean, however, that demand will not try to move out attack towards resistance 1.1216, which break open the way towards 1.1240 level. However, keeping in mind the data from the US, I do not think that either the party wanted to take the initiative before the hour 14:30. Due to the above signal for the supply or demand, should be read GDP. Summing up for a better reading supply will direct Eurodollar towards recent lows 1.1144 and 1.1129. In contrast, worse reading may be a pretext to develop a stronger correction towards 1.1280. In the longer term, after completion of the correction, I expect further declines towards the recent lows.
by RobertPapon
5
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 24/05/16The technical situation on the main currency pair has not changed. The preferred option remains further declines towards lower price levels. Until then we may be witnessing the development of movement correction toward resistance 1,1256-82. Support for this view may be better readings from Germany. It should however be noted that after adjustment, the supply should push-dollar towards the minimum in the last level 1,1179-87. Accordingly, the level of around 1.1280 seem to be an ideal place to open short position. Taking into account the possible interest rate hike in June, we can also assume that further declines will take place without the mentioned correction. This in turn means that the breaking of the last low of 1.1179 will open the way towards support at 1.1144 and 1,1058-80. Strong support in this case are robust readings from the US economy.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (23.05-27.05)Currency pair after the recent declines and reaching the level of 1.1179 is currently in revision. Demand side should lead to increases in the vicinity of 1,1256-82 (the upper limit of the downward channel, and a minimum of 13 May, which coincides with the 23.6 fibo of 1.1617 drops to the level of 1.1179). For overcoming w / w resistance demand may even reach the vicinity of 1.1345. After the implementation of the motion correction expect declines towards the 1.1216 level and 1.1179. Breaking the support levels open the way towards much lower price levels. The next levels are 1.1144 props and 1,1058-80. At the moment, expectations of a possible rate hike in June will support the US currency. Therefore, the adjustment may be local in nature or can be witnessed further declines without the said correction. A variant of the base seems to be a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. The threat for the said variant will be worse readings from the US, which negate the increase in June.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecast of EUR / USDThe technical situation currently favors further declines. Currency pair ended the week around 1.1313 (76.4% fib increases of 1,1216-1,1617), and considering the recent declines, it is possible to undo the correction 1,1336-59 area. After completing local correction, the supply side should push the exchange rate discussed currency pair towards 1.1240 and 1.1216. It is also possible variant of further declines without any correction. In this case, the start of the week we will start further declines towards 1.1216.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 13/05/16The technical situation Eurodollar remains unchanged. All the time we are in consolidation between the strong resistance at 1.1465 and support at 1.1376. The market is waiting for the moment of issue. It is likely that the signal for further direction will be Friday's data. Accordingly I repeat, what is presented in previous reports: "Overcoming support paves the way towards lower price levels 1,1336-42 (peaks of 17 and 18 March). In contrast, defeat in / at support levels will lead to a return to the recent lows at around the level of 1,1213-18. If you happen to break the mountain above the level of 1.1465, in this case the demand will head toward this year's peaks. Along the way, the demand side encounters resistance levels are located at 1.1495 and 1.1536. "
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (02.05-06.05)Currency pair after the recent rally came to a very strong resistance zone, which was a strong barrier in the first two weeks of April. Eurodollar noted Friday's high of 1.1461, which coincides with the peak of 18 September. The demand side is facing a difficult task to force the resistance extending between 1,1465-95, whose defeat opens the way toward 1.1621 and 1.1714 (highs from the end of August). At the moment, support for variant growth is a minimum of 22 April, at the level of 1.1216. (It is worth reminding that the support referred coincides with the 38.2% fibo abolition increases from 0.8231 to 1.6038). Certainly it can be said that the strong resistance zone 1,1465-95 will be defended by the supply side. In my opinion, an attempt to break through these levels with the march should not go, which should enable the supply side. If my suspicions are correct it in the next session, we should see some form of correction of recent increases, and another attack on the mentioned resistance zone. Any adjustment can refer Eurodollar rate in the vicinity of the support levels 1.1400 and 1.1367 (38.2% fibo recent increases and the lower limit of the upward channel on the chart with the interval 1D). Overcoming resistance level at 1.1495 will be crucial for the euro-dollar in the medium term.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 05/04/16Today's growth and the strong decline below the opening price may suggest a long-awaited correction. For this turn of events is also supported by the daily candle, which may indicate a trend reversal. Another aspect that suggests a strengthening of the dollar in the near future, is its seasonality. May is a particularly good month for the US currency, which strengthened in the past to most currencies. It was no different in previous years, the main currency pair. Over the past 10 years, the dollar strengthened against the euro in May, up to 8-fold. The last argument, which supports the camp bears is the fact that after the recent rally almost six months, the correction in May would be a natural thing. If my suspicions are correct, then in the near future we should see declines towards lower price levels. The closest props are the peaks of mid-October at 1,1489-95. After their break open the way towards the next support levels are located at levels 1,1437-65 (peaks in the first half of April). Further support will be around the level of 1.1416 and 1.1376.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/05/16Bulls showed today incredible determination and growth took place without prior local correction. This is already the sixth day of gains in a row and it does not seem that the demand side, was able to keep the pace of growth without local correction. A currency pair is heavily subscribed, while the RSI above 70, increases the risk of progress in further increases. With every moment of chances for initiating the supply side correction. Therefore, we should see counterattack supply side, which can lead to declines toward support levels 1.1411 and 1,1458-61. Then, after the correction should be the next wave of growth towards recent highs 1.1495 and 1.1533. If they overcome the demand side will have an open path towards higher price levels. In turn will be the levels 1.1600, followed by 1.1621 and 1.1714 (highs from the end of August). Alternate version assumes further increases without the mentioned correction, but at the moment it seems to be unlikely.
Short
by RobertPapon
2