TIP
MOVE INDEX BONDS SET TO HAVE CRISIS The chart of the move index aka BOND VIX is showing a high level of Complacency as the bonds are in sharp decline phases The worst is yet to come as the Panic in the debt markets has not been seen. Inflation and deep recession is in my model and forecast for the next 18 plus months .
Rising Inflation Expectations: TIP vs. IEFIntroduction:
With the election concluded, market focus has shifted to bond markets, where recent developments hint at rising inflation expectations. Despite President Trump's campaign emphasis on price control, indicators suggest a shift toward higher inflation. A key metric to monitor is the ratio between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities AMEX:TIP and 7-10 Year Treasuries $IEF. When (TIP) outperforms NASDAQ:IEF , it signals increasing inflation expectations; conversely, when IEF outperforms, it suggests a decline in inflation expectations.
Analysis:
Inflation Expectations: The TIP-to-IEF ratio is a reliable gauge of the market's inflation outlook. A rising ratio indicates growing inflation concerns, as investors favor TIPs for their inflation protection over traditional Treasuries.
Technical Pattern: Currently, the TIP-to-IEF ratio is breaking out of a descending triangle formation, a continuation pattern that signals the potential for higher inflation expectations. This breakout aligns with a recent surge in interest rates, reflecting heightened inflation concerns in the bond market.
Market Implications: This breakout could be the early stage of a sustained trend toward higher inflation, raising questions about whether the recent interest rate surge is a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a longer-term shift.
Conclusion:
The bond market is sending signals of rising inflation expectations, as indicated by the breakout in the TIP-to-IEF ratio. This could mark the start of a new phase in the inflation cycle, with potential implications for interest rates and broader market sentiment. Traders should closely monitor this ratio to assess the longevity of the current trend. Do you think inflation expectations are set to rise further? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the TIP-to-IEF ratio, the descending triangle formation, and breakout targets)
Tags: #Inflation #Bonds #Treasuries #TIP #IEF #InterestRates #TechnicalAnalysis
🔥 FOMC meeting... Should I be careful? Should I trade?📢 Insight on FOMC meeting:
No need to trade during this meeting. Protect your capital.
Keeping it short this time. Stands for, "Federal Open Market Committee".
Meetings are held 8 times a year. 6 wks apart.
September meeting is crucial. Right after summer ends.
FED gives economic forecasts (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc)
Budget/ debt ceiling discussions/ decisions
Interest rates (mortgage, savings, etc)
Forward guidance (very important, probably what matters the most here).
These decisions will affect the US Dollar, which affects the global economy one way or another.
Volatility for markets, especially if there's new/ unexpected guidance.
Pay attention to the forward guidance today. Everything else may already be "priced in". AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! will react the most.
Good luck & trade safe. No need to jump on any trades during the meeting YOU MAY GET burned (unless you do a straddle I guess). 💯
As Deflation Hits the Economy The Price of TIPs Should FallEarlier in 2022 I got some Bullish Exposure to Deflation by positioning Bearishly against TIPs (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) as can be seen here:
Fast-forward to today and we can now see the CPI declining and the TIPs declining even faster, This ETF Tracks the price of these TIPs and we can see that it is breaking through support even though the CPI has only retraced half way. If the CPI continues on this path and the Bond Market continues to price in Long Term Deflation, we should then see the pricing of this TIPs based ETF come down crashing in a big way. If that does happen, I would target at least the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension.
QQQ still very elevated when compared to the TIPThe NASDAQ:QQQ typically trades with the AMEX:TIP over time, as the TIP represents real yields. With the TIP ETF falling, it would suggest the QQQ should be falling too, but that relationship has broken down over the past several weeks, suggesting one is likely wrong.
Significant Divergence in equity markets and leading indicatorsObservable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced.
What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines.
The combined US equity markets and particularly the NASDAQ itself is very bullish, spiking up and hard in the last two weeks, extending further from mean.
So, going forward the next couple of weeks, either one of two needs to happen.
EITHER, the equity indexes continue the upward surge and the leading indicators reverse course to align and exceed (and return to be leading indicators);
OR the equity indexes breakdown really hard to converge with the leading indicators.
Watch for the latter, as the leading indicators break down of the trend line and show commitment. Then the equity markets may give a swift reversion into convergence and confluence.
There are many ways to look at this and many more parameters to add in, but keeping it as simple as I would, perhaps waiting and watching for the next couple of weeks might be better than taking a committed position.
Stay safe, keep a watchful look, be ready...
TIP off... Just want to show an anomaly observed here... sort of a tip off on what is most likely to happen.
You see, I read Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear back in 2009 (not easy to get it as it is out of print!), and he describes TIP as one of the/a leading indicator ahead of the equity market.
Superimposed on the TIP daily chart is the SPY (blue line), NASDAQ (cyan line).
You can see that it does lead the SPY and NASDAQ.
However, there is a deviation from the pattern since two weeks ago. TIP has been falling hard, and the technical indicators are all bearish no doubt; but the SPY has been cranking upwards, furthermore so the NASDAQ.
So, here is the deal... either TIP rockets back up, or the equity markets dive down.
Which would it be, you think???
{AUROPHARMA}:{HIGH RETURN TRADE }
Price is retracing into a Daily Demand and there is a 1H Demand coincided with the Daily Demand which makes this 1H Demand a Special Demand
TIP off?Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index.
Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect a bullish advancement.
MACD has not yet turned to crossover, but VolDiv is already giving us a heads up tip off! < Pun not intended >
My view on ETHHello, i marked long and short areas for ETH (green box and red box), where i will enter trade. The lines between are areas, where can be some price action. Hope it will help, do not trade according to me, I do not guarantee success. :)!
- kiko <3
Aftermath of the Fed rate hike - NASDAQ, S&P500, SOXL, ENPHJust a quick rehash on the few that I have been closely following of late, especially after the Fed raised rates 0.75%, as expected; but the important bit was in the narrative (not analyzed here).
The NASDAQ futures had 11,900 simply broken through, and the next day followed through with a slight gap down, as global markets react.
The S&P500 ETF, SPY, similarly broke down below 388, and closed at its low of the day.
Both have bearish candlesticks with momentum, and MACD is supportive of further downside, likely to visit the last low (and possibly exceed) within the coming weeks.
In the same light, SOXL (as covered previously) had all its bullishness invalidated since last week. There is a slight divergence with the MACD struggling to maintain a slight bullish stance, but the candlestick is just pain bearish, period. This is highly likely to exceed its previous low and go below 10.
ENPH, the fascinating one, is amazingly holding at the lower end of the recent range. It appears to most likely break down to the lower end of the lower range, about 275, to meet the 55EMA. Yes, this is one that is above its daily 55EMA. MACD however, is less bullish with a cross under its Signal line. 235 is a critical support, after 255 (if it is to hold its bullish case).
Overall, bearish as previously expected, to the last low for the major indexes and the corresponding ETFs.
In the wider scope (not shown here), the USD futures is getting a pump, and both TIP and TLT may be bottoming out. The latter being some deviation from the recent trend where almost all drop except the USD.
Simple comparison between TIP and SPY - ominous lookingA simple comparison between TIP and SPY line charts. Had always known that TIP is one of the leading indicator for the S&P500 index (and ETF is SPY). Previous heads up shown with the lag denoted by the white boxes.
Key takeaway here is that TIP had went past the last low, and is pushing down lower, while the SPY is hovering and IF it is to keep the co-related relationship, it does suggest a lower low for the SPY!
A similar time previously occured in September 2018; and twice in 2022 - January & March
So... how do you think this September-October would turn out?
Analysis on USDJPYHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it.
As we can see, the price is at its STRONGE TRENDLINE RESISTANCE. I am expecting a reversal.
Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all.
There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand.
So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us
BTCUSD if there is no recovery waveWithout a recovery wave above $44,600, BTCUSD will likely continue to fall. For now the price will swing back and forth around the $42,000 pivot point and the shorts are still active. BTCUSD price will expose more shortcomings if it fails to recover to higher price levels and we have reason to believe that the short-term price action will be less than ideal.
Possible scenarios
1) Price rallies to around $44600 and we choose to go short with a target of $35000-37000;
2) Price drops quickly at the pivot point of $42,000 to around $37,000.
earlier analysis
GME LongJust up & HODL to the green belt, Buy the golden dip brick by brick, Buckle up to the ...... moon, No exit strategy just get some bloody red tips!
Silver Spear TIPTrapping Silver/TIP ratio between the descending trend, flat 30wk SMA, Inclining 30D SMA. Ascending stoch with no sign of stopping.. The most coiled spring I have seen all day.
Honestly surprised at the accuracy of this Arc.
Trading habits that lead to SUCCESS...Focus on the long-term. Calculate returns and review your trading performance once per quarter or once per year. Checking returns daily or weekly just becomes frustrating and leads to emotional trading.
Trading is about getting rich slowly. Analysing performance on a daily or weekly basis is irrational and can be soul destroying.
gold ..gold..gold... heres what evryone should agree hahagold is actually a lot of things, but one thing every trader should agree to me is that gold is a mind game.
to defeat gold and anyother investors, remember that the investors takes the money of the impatient investors so be patient. each companies started low and blow up. impatients investors are always full of regret.
like if u agree
GOLD Bull Reposition RoadmapGOLD/TIP ratio has taken some noise out of the ver emotional Gold chart, zooming out a little to 3d we can start to look a little more rationally.
The chart speaks for itself, I have raised some cash in the hopes of repositioning on more silver over gold (though gold is the barometer for the wider PM market).
I will look to scale in over a few weeks where emotional selling will have given better entry points than I was averaging in September.
Using Treasury Protected Securities to HedgeFar be it from the lips of any trader to question the bull run, but all good, crazy things must come to an end. And it is in this spirit that we plan for the future. Everyone with the tiniest bit of gumption is a genius in a bull market, but it's when the stock comes crashing down that separates the real traders from the future embittered.
This is comparing all the TIP ETFs I could find with the effective Federal Funds rate. The idea is that while a TIP will protect your money from inflation, you want to pick one that is resilient in the face of high-interest rates. I've named my favorite, for the specific reason that it is the most volatile. So while it will succumb to a market crash it may more quickly recover.
The nightmare is to be left bag holding a 2001-2007-type scenario, or 2007-2012.
Now I'm a trend follower. Not a trend-setter. So my plan is to beat the market and generate some money in this environment and then lose 20% of the portfolio at the top when this thing starts flatlining - whenever that might be. It's been right around the corner for a decade and with the stock market totally beholden to the FED, it's not hard to imagine a subtle policy change like slightly raising interest rates totally blowing this thing for 2-3 years. At that time I hope to bail into some combination of TIPS and Food Retail (Ingles, Albersons, Kroger) to weather the storm.
It's not wrong to take advantage of the mania, but you better have a plan on where to put your money.
GOLD/TIP Arc SupportMonthly chart removes noise, we could breach the arch to form a handleultimately connecting with the 36mo/3yr EMA, or continue to hug the arch, either is bullish.
The overall picture for gold remains bullish. Zoom out. Chill out.
