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TMF

Opening (IRA): TMF May 17th 39 Covered Call... for a 38.06 debit. Comments: Along with TLT, one of the only red things on my ETF board. Doing a starter position here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 38.06/share Max Profit: .94 ROC at Max: 2.47% 50% Max: .47 ROC at 50% Max: 1.24% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call at 50% max.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF May 16th 37 Covered Call... for a 36.05 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 36.05/share Max Profit: .95 ROC at Max: 2.64% 50% Max: .48 ROC at 50% Max: 1.32% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, look to add at intervals if I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call when that aspect hits 50% max.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF March 28th 36 Covered Call... for a 35.08 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against shares on weakness to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.08 Max Profit: .92 ROC at Max: 2.62% 50% Max: .46 ROC at 50% Max: 1.31% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have, and/or roll out the short call on approaching worthless if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF March 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.85 debit. Comments: Starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.85 Max Profit: 1.15 ROC at Max: 3.30% 50% Max: .58 ROC at 50% Max: 1.65% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out the short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TMF Feb 28th 35 Covered Call... for a 33.98 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 40.7/44.2, which is no surprise, since this is a bullish 3 x leveraged 20 year paper exchange-traded fund. It does have a dividend that pays out quarterly in March, June, September, and December (annualized yield of 4.71%). Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Using the February 28th expiry to keep things in that 45 DTE wheelhouse and will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 33.98/share Max Profit: 1.02 ROC at Max: 3.00% 50% Max: .51 ROC at 50% Max: 1.50% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in-profit short call out to reduce my break even.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
$TLT long to 110 on February 20, 2025Everything is on the chart. I am calling for TLT to rally from today's closing price of $86 to $110 by Thursday, February 20, 2025. The Javier Milei Argentina experiment has been a huge success for Argentina, who is buddy buddy with the J's and Elon Musk, both of whom are buddy buddy with Trump. At the time of this writing, $105 calls for 2/21/2025 are .05 each. If the target hits, they will be worth $5.0, for a total return of 10,000% (10X). On the weekly chart, you can see the 200 week SMA coincides with my level on that date as well. Feel free to share.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by FomoFutures
4
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT / TLT T Bill Inverse TreasuriesOn this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell. They are inverses of one another . What makes one go down will make the other go up and viceversa. By February 1, TBT bottomed out and the ratio reversed. The cycle took 3 months. On a lower time frame, cycling would be more frequent. At present, it would appear to be time to sell TLT and / or buy TBT What applies to the TBT /TLT ratio would also relate to TMV / TMF as a ratio.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TLT Treasuries Long breaks down under VWAP SHORTTLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023. Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time. Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20. Relative strength trending correlates with price . I conclude, TLT continues to be set up SHORT or alternatively TBT LONG . I will take short trades at weekly highs on a 30-60 minute chart until signs of a reversal are seen on the chart.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by AwesomeAvani
TLT- Are rate cuts postponed? LONGTLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value of existing bonds with the implications of a rate cut postponed beyond June. The faster RSI line has recovered to cross the 50 level lending further support to this long trade.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF long trade setup 3X Bullish TreasuriesTMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated matter. I am taking a long trade targeting 54 with a stop loss at 50 in consideration of the triangle pattern. I have existing positions in TLT.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
TLT Long at VWAP Bounce T- Bills 20 yearsTLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci highest band. This will be about $ 1.00 cheaper than before that sale and is part of a zig-zag strategy for TLT overall.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMV Triple Inverse Treasury Bill ETF LONGTMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative volume indicator shows increasing volumes reacting to the price bottoming and accumulation underway. I see this as a long trade set up while recognizing that fundamentals such as interest rate adjustments and inflation data could impact the technicals.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
US10Y - Is it a "sea change" or a strong buy for TLT and TMF ?In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets. When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview: (Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U ) TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March. Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ? And in this weekly chart of TVC:US10Y , we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel: (Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W ) See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF . Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently: (Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze ) This week we will see if TVC:US10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at TVC:US10Y , then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. In conclusion, if TVC:US10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
TVC:US10YShort
by alikasapoglu
Impulse correction ?? - TMF pump 🚀📣 Hello everyone! I believe that in the next 3-5 months we can get a correction (growth - inverse chart) on TMF. The US 20-year yield of 5.388% on October 23 could be the medium-term maximum, or we are already very close to it. To do this, it is necessary to observe more, since the trend on the same TMF chart has not yet been broken. Be careful and keep a close eye on this. Target: 🎯 TP1 - $6.59 🎯 TP2 - $7.78 🎯 TP3 - 10$ Goodbye!
AMEX:TMFLong
by AnonymousTraderAcademy
2
TBT- a bearish treasury ETF LONGTBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above price suggests a lot of trading above price and likely short sellers. A longer time interval volume profile shows the POC line more than $1.00 below current price. Price could easily gravitate in the direction of that price magnet. Overall, I see a bias for a bearish move and will watch this to confirm. i will play this with put options to leverge the amplitude of the move albeit at higher risk.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
TMV leverage inverse ETF for treasuries SHORTTMV on the one-hour chart tested two standard deviations above the mean VWAP in both late May and early July it fell to one standard deviation below VWAP but then rose sharply into beyond the two standard deviations line ( thick red ) ascending into a YTD high. I believe that this is due to the recent federal debt creditworthiness downgrade. The threatened rise of BRICS reserve currency and potentially adversely affects the value of the dollar ( DXY) while supporting gold prices. I see this as a good continuation play no matter the overextension of price. Both the dual MTF and the zero lag MACD however suggest a pullback. The mass flow indicator does as well. As a result I will look at TMF to go long trusting the indicators to give me a directional bias.
AMEX:TMVShort
by AwesomeAvani
TMF ( 3X Treasuries)beatdown completed reversal underway LONGOn the one-hour chart, TMF a triple ETF of long-expiration treasuries has finally completed its downtrend or ten days given more bearish momentum with the federal debt downgrade of creditworthiness as well as the rise of BRICS as a reserve currency. Three indicators show bullish divergence with a MACD cross under the histogram. The 30 minute RS line rising before the 2 hr RS line reacts and importantly a mass index signal rising into the reversal line and then a drop. While none of this is a Holy Grail, I am confident that the bias here is bullish. I will trade long if you are interested in the stop loss and targets let me know. If you would lke my idea of an options setup, let me know as well. If this idea is helpful, please like and subscribe. Trade well !
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani