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EUR/JPY: 16/05. Good input for the sellerEUR/JPY is heading towards the neck and shoulder line after the cross broke out of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 147.68. However, it still hesitates to achieve a decisive breakout that could invalidate the pattern. As the Asian session begins, EUR/JPY is trading around 147.95, down 0.06%. EUR/JPY remains skewed to neutral, although in the near term, will be tilted slightly to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator shows a pause in the uptrend as the RSI is flat in the bullish zone, while the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) is neutral. Although EUR/JPY spot price tests the head and shoulders neckline, the pattern remains intact. The confluence of the neckline and last year's high of 148.45 could make it difficult for buyers while being a good zone for EUR/JPY sellers. OANDA:EURJPY SELL EURJPY zone 148.00 - 148.10 SL: 148.35 TP: 147.00
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
1
Trade Recap - XAGUSD Review the trade I've taken on XAGUSD My trading style is a combination from all of these methods: Top down analysis Chart pattern analysis Supply & demand Let's start with the analysis which I did on 30 Dec 2021. Monthly Bullish flag pattern is formed. With this pattern, there's potential price to break the flag and impulsive to the upside. Currently on Monthly low in a corrective phase. Monthly low indicate that probability price could go more to upside than downside. Historical price also show that on this region, price tend to go impulse to upside. I would target the price to reach the beginning of correction (beginning of flag). Weekly Price hasn't break previous bearish structure. The probability for price to go up only for short term and then to the downside again is there. I should aware of the scenario where Bullish W pattern could play-out. Current price is on Weekly low. Never buy on weekly low because historically the price tend to go upside. There is double bottom pattern that indicate currently on resistance. Bullish candle already appear, indicate that the bull is there. So lower potential to catch the falling knife. The conclusion is there's more probability going to upside than to the downside. Daily Bullish M pattern with consecutive bearish candle on the 4th leg. This pattern indicate the bullish momentum. Clear trend-line (white). Historically price respect the trend-line, so there's probability that it still will respect the trend-line. Bullish candle appear showing that the bull is there. So lower potential to catch the falling knife. I draw fibonacci from 3rd leg of Bullish M pattern and will find Supply & Demand zone below 61.8. Also use -27 as Daily target profit. Clear Supply & Demand zone (white). S&D is a zone that could act as both resistance & support. On this zone I will wait for the entry confirmation on 4H timeframe. 4H Bullish M pattern with false break on fib completion -68. This pattern inside the bigger timeframe pattern indicate that it align with the bigger timeframe trend, which is uptrend. Inverse H&S could play-out. This is my confirmation for entry position. I will wait on Supply & Demand zone (grey) I wait for deceleration and bullish indication before place my entry to minimize the risk. Place my Stop Loss on the lowest wick that on my S&D zone. Will increase my position along the way if the price go according my analysis. Current price 1 Jan 2022
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by William-Gan
No Forecast (WTICO/USD Trade Update).The market as it has for the whole of October is looking great frame a higher time frame perspective but very poor from a lower time frame one, at least in terms of opportunities which meet my plan. So this is just a quick trade update for you where the short trade that I placed yesterday on WTICO/USD is concerned. Patience always pays folks and I'm in this game for the long haul, not with the intention of "getting risk quickly" like a large percentage of my fellow market participants are but with the intention of continuing to generate wealth for myself and my family steadily and when you let the market come to you as opposed to you chasing the market you'll feel empowered as I always do and this is going to increase your confidence in your trading ability as it has mine and it's this confidence and this mindset which is going to set you up for success as a trader. Have a great weekend!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by StewySongs
2
AUD/CHF and EUR/USD on watch for me today.AUD/CHF: • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/USD: • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, or price impulses up still further and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
No Forecast (GBP/USD Trade Update).Good morning guys and girls, I'm now back at my office desk at my home address in Scotland. I still need to catch up on a few things and set my recording equipment up which I'll be doing later today, but once I've done so I'll be able to start making videos for you again from tomorrow onwards. For now here's a quick update on my GBP/USD trade. I was tagged out a few seconds after 8:00 AM this morning for +1.88%. Since price had previously twice come very close to my stop loss before pushing back up in my forecasted direction I moved my stop back down by a couple of pips whilst I was sat waiting for my train at London King's Cross station to give my trade just a tiny bit more room to breathe so that my stop loss made sense relative to where this new swing low had formed. I don't normally give back profit if I've already locked it in, but I will if it makes sense to do so and I'm only giving back a tiny amount such as +0.07% as I was in this instance. Price then subsequently pushed up leaving me running at around +4.00% profit at one point and a question I always ask myself when I have a lot of profit exposed to the market is, "Would I be comfortable having this much profit exposed to the market if I was trading a one million pound account?", which if I was trading a one million pound account would have meant that this trade would have been in profit by £40,000 with the possibility of price taking me out for £12,900. So after asking myself this I decided to lock in below the big wick that had formed on the one hour chart which was also a notable inflection point on the four hour chart. I could have locked in on the break of the subsequent tight flag that had formed on the one hour chart, but an amendment I made to my trading plan a while back was to not lock in on the break of tight flags if price has broken them correctively, because the testing I've done and my experience have taught me when this happens price will usually turn such tight flags into larger versions of themselves before price finally commits in my forecasted direction and given that the profit potential of this trade was just over +30% not locking in too tightly made sense. i.e. I was happy to be a bit more aggressive and lock in some of the +4%, but not too aggressive and by not being too aggressive give this trade a little more room to breathe. So I'm very happy with this trade which puts me in profit for the month and therefore obviously the quarter, a trade which I'll be documenting later today as one of my five daily goals and I look forward to bringing you videos once again from tomorrow onwards. Have a great day and I'll speak to you tomorrow!
Long
by StewySongs
1
Nothing on watch for me today.Good morning all, I hope you're doing well. So I was tagged out of my EUR/GBP trade for break even yesterday and now as I'd expected it would if I was tagged out price looks it might be pushing back down to the bottom of our higher time frame structure, so I'm very happy with how I placed and managed this trade and all we as traders have to do after a trade is document and journal it and then role the dice again and our let our edge over the market play out over a large enough sample size of trades just as a casino does when it comes to hands or spins. Where today is concerned I think the market once again looks like it needs a little development across the board where how I look to trade is concerned, so because I'm running my trading career like a business and I'm not looking to get rich quick I'm happy to watch from the touchline again as it were and wait for the market to show its hand. I think AUD/JPY could be a possible candidate for my Friday Forecast, but we shall see how this pair develops as today unfolds. Have a great day and remember that in trading just as in life, patience always pays!
Long
by StewySongs
CAD/JPY on watch for me today.CAD/JPY: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If price only pushes down to and ideally just below our upper rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll again be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it, but I'll be hiding my stop loss below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure for extra protection. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline and it does so impulsively, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
2
EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD on watch for me today.EUR/NZD: • If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our lower rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll once again be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it but I'll be hiding my stop loss above our upper ascending trend line for extra protection. • If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our lower rayline or I miss the risk entry opportunity from the top of our most recent piece of structure, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
4
EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning guys and girls. I hope you're doing well. So my NZD/JPY trade which I liquidated on Sunday night would now (had I not liquidated it) be running at just over +8.00% profit with +7.81% locked in which would have been my most profitable live trade of all time in both percentage and monetary terms. Am I frustrated by this? Not at all. In fact I actually feel motivated because I previously never even used to miss these moves because I didn't know how to forecast them in the first place and one of the reasons I feel motivated is because I was backtesting yesterday and based on something which I discovered on my charts plus one other tweak which I've made to aid my psychology I know that had I been in this trade today I most definitely would not have liquidated my position. Furthermore this is the second +7.00% move that I've missed in one week, so it's only a matter of time before these bites turn into catches! I'm not in any trades at the moment but my forecast for today I've listed below. I only have two pairs on watch today because we've seen some big moves this week and after big moves I typically prefer to let the market show its hand rather than trying to catch a bunch of falling knives. I've just added EUR/GBP to my Tuesday Forecast but this might not be ready by the end of the day, but since I only have one other pair on watch I thought I'd add it into the mix as a bit of a hedge. Have a great day! EUR/GBP: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning guys and girls. I hope you're doing well. So my NZD/JPY trade which I liquidated on Sunday night would now (had I not liquidated it) be running at just over +8.00% profit with +7.81% locked in which would have been my most profitable live trade of all time in both percentage and monetary terms. Am I frustrated by this? Not at all. In fact I actually feel motivated because I previously never even used to miss these moves because I didn't know how to forecast them in the first place and one of the reasons I feel motivated is because I was backtesting yesterday and based on something which I discovered on my charts plus one other tweak which I've made to aid my psychology I know that had I been in this trade today I most definitely would not have liquidated my position. Furthermore this is the second +7.00% move that I've missed in one week, so it's only a matter of time before these bites turn into catches! I'm not in any trades at the moment but my forecast for today I've listed below. I only have two pairs on watch today because we've seen some big moves this week and after big moves I typically prefer to let the market show its hand rather than trying to catch a bunch of falling knives. I've just added EUR/GBP to my Tuesday Forecast but this might not be ready by the end of the day, but since I only have one other pair on watch I thought I'd add it into the mix as a bit of a hedge. Have a great day! EUR/GBP: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
EUR/USD, EUR/NZD and USD/CHF on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well, you had a great weekend and that you're feeling focussed for the week ahead. So I closed my NZD/JPY trade down manually last night for break even (or +0.1% profit to be price) once price broke back with in our larger flag and then closed within it on the one hour chart and then immediately after I had price dropped like a stone in the direction I previously required it to. If I hadn't then I'd currently be running at around +2.7% profit, but that's trading for you. We document and journal the trade and then we move on to the next one. My forecast for today is listed below and I currently have an order set on EUR/USD which I'm currently monitoring closely to make sure that my stop loss is in the right place encase I'm triggered into the trade. Have a great day! EUR/USD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/CHF: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EUR/USD, EUR/NZD and USD/CHF on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well, you had a great weekend and that you're feeling focussed for the week ahead. So I closed my NZD/JPY trade down manually last night for break even (or +0.1% profit to be price) once price broke back with in our larger flag and then closed within it on the one hour chart and then immediately after I had price dropped like a stone in the direction I previously required it to. If I hadn't then I'd currently be running at around +2.7% profit, but that's trading for you. We document and journal the trade and then we move on to the next one. My forecast for today is listed below and I currently have an order set on EUR/USD which I'm currently monitoring closely to make sure that my stop loss is in the right place encase I'm triggered into the trade. Have a great day! EUR/USD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/CHF: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EUR/USD, EUR/NZD and USD/CHF on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well, you had a great weekend and that you're feeling focussed for the week ahead. So I closed my NZD/JPY trade down manually last night for break even (or +0.1% profit to be price) once price broke back with in our larger flag and then closed within it on the one hour chart and then immediately after I had price dropped like a stone in the direction I previously required it to. If I hadn't then I'd currently be running at around +2.7% profit, but that's trading for you. We document and journal the trade and then we move on to the next one. My forecast for today is listed below and I currently have an order set on EUR/USD which I'm currently monitoring closely to make sure that my stop loss is in the right place encase I'm triggered into the trade. Have a great day! EUR/USD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/CHF: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
EUR/USD, EUR/NZD and USD/CHF on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well, you had a great weekend and that you're feeling focussed for the week ahead. So I closed my NZD/JPY trade down manually last night for break even (or +0.1% profit to be price) once price broke back with in our larger flag and then closed within it on the one hour chart and then immediately after I had price dropped like a stone in the direction I previously required it to. If I hadn't then I'd currently be running at around +2.7% profit, but that's trading for you. We document and journal the trade and then we move on to the next one. My forecast for today is listed below and I currently have an order set on EUR/USD which I'm currently monitoring closely to make sure that my stop loss is in the right place encase I'm triggered into the trade. Have a great day! EUR/USD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/CHF: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
EUR/NZD, NZD/JPY and EUR/CAD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well. So I took another loss yesterday, this time on EUR/NZD by the first of two volatility spikes during swap hours. I placed my trade at my cutoff point of 7:30 PM BST and once again unfortunately the liquidity didn't come in which would have pushed price clear of my stop loss. I also experienced slippage too which means that I ended up losing a fair bit more than the 1% I told my broker that I wanted to risk. Those who say that you shouldn't trade at this time, or at this time, or during this session, or that session either forget or they aren't aware just how much testing I've done of this strategy and how much experience I now have trading it, which is why I trade the hours I do because I've found that over a large enough sample size of trades it's a profitable one unless you start trading beyond my cutoff point. But unfortunately testing and probabilistic thinking are concepts which the majority of traders struggle with, which is to a large extent why many of them strategy hop the moment that they experience a period of drawdown which you'll experience at some point regardless of what strategy you trade. However thanks largely to the fact that I've trained my mind to deal with drawdown I was able to stay neutral and positive after my latest loss, which allowed me to take advantage of another golden opportunity and arguably an even better one just after swap hours had finished and the spread during the Asian Session had calmed down so I'm now currently short on NZD/JPY. Once again I was almost taken out for another loss, but price has since scooped back down to my entry point, so we'll see how this one plays out and of course I'll keep you updated on its progress. My forecast for today which includes a screenshot of my EUR/NZD trade and the NZD/JPY trade which I'm currently still in I've pasted below, as usual I'll be selecting my Top 6 and my Wildcard list pairs tonight, tomorrow morning I'll be creating my Monday Forecast and on Monday morning I'll bring you that forecast. Have a great day, a great weekend and I'll speak to you again soon! EUR/NZD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/JPY: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/CAD: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EUR/NZD, NZD/JPY and EUR/CAD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well. So I took another loss yesterday, this time on EUR/NZD by the first of two volatility spikes during swap hours. I placed my trade at my cutoff point of 7:30 PM BST and once again unfortunately the liquidity didn't come in which would have pushed price clear of my stop loss. I also experienced slippage too which means that I ended up losing a fair bit more than the 1% I told my broker that I wanted to risk. Those who say that you shouldn't trade at this time, or at this time, or during this session, or that session either forget or they aren't aware just how much testing I've done of this strategy and how much experience I now have trading it, which is why I trade the hours I do because I've found that over a large enough sample size of trades it's a profitable one unless you start trading beyond my cutoff point. But unfortunately testing and probabilistic thinking are concepts which the majority of traders struggle with, which is to a large extent why many of them strategy hop the moment that they experience a period of drawdown which you'll experience at some point regardless of what strategy you trade. However thanks largely to the fact that I've trained my mind to deal with drawdown I was able to stay neutral and positive after my latest loss, which allowed me to take advantage of another golden opportunity and arguably an even better one just after swap hours had finished and the spread during the Asian Session had calmed down so I'm now currently short on NZD/JPY. Once again I was almost taken out for another loss, but price has since scooped back down to my entry point, so we'll see how this one plays out and of course I'll keep you updated on its progress. My forecast for today which includes a screenshot of my EUR/NZD trade and the NZD/JPY trade which I'm currently still in I've pasted below, as usual I'll be selecting my Top 6 and my Wildcard list pairs tonight, tomorrow morning I'll be creating my Monday Forecast and on Monday morning I'll bring you that forecast. Have a great day, a great weekend and I'll speak to you again soon! EUR/NZD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/JPY: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/CAD: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EUR/NZD, NZD/JPY and EUR/CAD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're doing well. So I took another loss yesterday, this time on EUR/NZD by the first of two volatility spikes during swap hours. I placed my trade at my cutoff point of 7:30 PM BST and once again unfortunately the liquidity didn't come in which would have pushed price clear of my stop loss. I also experienced slippage too which means that I ended up losing a fair bit more than the 1% I told my broker that I wanted to risk. Those who say that you shouldn't trade at this time, or at this time, or during this session, or that session either forget or they aren't aware just how much testing I've done of this strategy and how much experience I now have trading it, which is why I trade the hours I do because I've found that over a large enough sample size of trades it's a profitable one unless you start trading beyond my cutoff point. But unfortunately testing and probabilistic thinking are concepts which the majority of traders struggle with, which is to a large extent why many of them strategy hop the moment that they experience a period of drawdown which you'll experience at some point regardless of what strategy you trade. However thanks largely to the fact that I've trained my mind to deal with drawdown I was able to stay neutral and positive after my latest loss, which allowed me to take advantage of another golden opportunity and arguably an even better one just after swap hours had finished and the spread during the Asian Session had calmed down so I'm now currently short on NZD/JPY. Once again I was almost taken out for another loss, but price has since scooped back down to my entry point, so we'll see how this one plays out and of course I'll keep you updated on its progress. My forecast for today which includes a screenshot of my EUR/NZD trade and the NZD/JPY trade which I'm currently still in I've pasted below, as usual I'll be selecting my Top 6 and my Wildcard list pairs tonight, tomorrow morning I'll be creating my Monday Forecast and on Monday morning I'll bring you that forecast. Have a great day, a great weekend and I'll speak to you again soon! EUR/NZD: • If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/JPY: • If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/CAD: • If price pushes up above our lower rayline, it does so impulsively and in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're well. So yesterday I took another loss, this time on SUGAR/USD which has now rocketed to the upside and although I'm now consistent enough to be able to trading professionally based on the very large sample size of fully documented and journalled trades that I have this is currently my worst run of form from a results perspective since I started doing so. This doesn't worry me in the slightest because of this edge that I have over the market which I know will continue to consistently play out over a subsequent large enough sample size of trades, because it's been tried and tested over several decades worth of data. But since I'm running my trading career like a business I'm always keen to make tweaks and improvements where I can. So yesterday I did a lot of assessing and re-evaluating and with trading being a predominantly psychological affair I've made several tweaks and improvements to my processes which are designed to improve my psychology moving forward. That said I did identify one key area of my trading from a technical perspective which needed improvement and I've now made an amendment to this which based on the fully documented and journalled trades that I've placed should see my trading results improve dramatically over a large enough sample size of trades. The latter resulted in me getting long on EUR/GBP last night just before I went to bed with price currently floating around my entry point as I type, but I wouldn't be surprised if some momentum kicks in to the upside when the London Session opens this morning. Below is the forecast which I created last night and of course my EUR/GBP forecast gave me the entry that I was looking for, so I'll now only be watching this today for monitoring purposes and as always I will not be looking to get long on EUR/NZD until my 1% risk exposure to EUR/GBP has been completely removed from the table. EUR/GBP: • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll once again be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
3
EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're well. So yesterday I took another loss, this time on SUGAR/USD which has now rocketed to the upside and although I'm now consistent enough to be able to trading professionally based on the very large sample size of fully documented and journalled trades that I have this is currently my worst run of form from a results perspective since I started doing so. This doesn't worry me in the slightest because of this edge that I have over the market which I know will continue to consistently play out over a subsequent large enough sample size of trades, because it's been tried and tested over several decades worth of data. But since I'm running my trading career like a business I'm always keen to make tweaks and improvements where I can. So yesterday I did a lot of assessing and re-evaluating and with trading being a predominantly psychological affair I've made several tweaks and improvements to my processes which are designed to improve my psychology moving forward. That said I did identify one key area of my trading from a technical perspective which needed improvement and I've now made an amendment to this which based on the fully documented and journalled trades that I've placed should see my trading results improve dramatically over a large enough sample size of trades. The latter resulted in me getting long on EUR/GBP last night just before I went to bed with price currently floating around my entry point as I type, but I wouldn't be surprised if some momentum kicks in to the upside when the London Session opens this morning. Below is the forecast which I created last night and of course my EUR/GBP forecast gave me the entry that I was looking for, so I'll now only be watching this today for monitoring purposes and as always I will not be looking to get long on EUR/NZD until my 1% risk exposure to EUR/GBP has been completely removed from the table. EUR/GBP: • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll once again be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
2
EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning one and all. I hope you're well. So yesterday I took another loss, this time on SUGAR/USD which has now rocketed to the upside and although I'm now consistent enough to be able to trading professionally based on the very large sample size of fully documented and journalled trades that I have this is currently my worst run of form from a results perspective since I started doing so. This doesn't worry me in the slightest because of this edge that I have over the market which I know will continue to consistently play out over a subsequent large enough sample size of trades, because it's been tried and tested over several decades worth of data. But since I'm running my trading career like a business I'm always keen to make tweaks and improvements where I can. So yesterday I did a lot of assessing and re-evaluating and with trading being a predominantly psychological affair I've made several tweaks and improvements to my processes which are designed to improve my psychology moving forward. That said I did identify one key area of my trading from a technical perspective which needed improvement and I've now made an amendment to this which based on the fully documented and journalled trades that I've placed should see my trading results improve dramatically over a large enough sample size of trades. The latter resulted in me getting long on EUR/GBP last night just before I went to bed with price currently floating around my entry point as I type, but I wouldn't be surprised if some momentum kicks in to the upside when the London Session opens this morning. Below is the forecast which I created last night and of course my EUR/GBP forecast gave me the entry that I was looking for, so I'll now only be watching this today for monitoring purposes and as always I will not be looking to get long on EUR/NZD until my 1% risk exposure to EUR/GBP has been completely removed from the table. EUR/GBP: • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If price only pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll once again be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by StewySongs
EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD on watch for me today.Good morning guys and girls, I hope you're doing well. I placed a short trade on SUGAR/USD yesterday. It met all of the criteria which has made it possible for me to trade professionally, but once again the liquidity just hasn't come into the market in my forecasted direction. On the lower time frames this trade no longer looks great from a structural perspective in my opinion and in my experience when this happens it almost always means that a trade that I'm in will result in another loss. However as professionals it's important that we're not as zoomed in as most people are on TradingView and we observe the bigger picture and on the daily chart yesterday's trading did leave SUGAR/USD with a confirmed evening star formation at structure, although admittedly still with a little bit of wick to the downside. So we'll see how this one plays out. As I keep saying, trading isn't about making money every single time you place a trade, if it was then none of us would be professional traders. It's about having an edge over the market and letting that edge play out over a large enough sample size of trades, something which the majority of people who trade aren't patient or probabilistically minded enough to do. Where today is concerned it's all about the Euro for me today and pasted below is my Tuesday forecast for your viewing... Have a great day! EUR/CAD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and it does so impulsively, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/GBP: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD: • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour rejection from it. • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline and it does so impulsively, then I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
1