LTC 2019 Entering AprilTrader Noxtreme. Crypto Spring?
Too long, didn't read version:
If LTC is able to hold above 57.20 for another day or two or break to the upside I see a strong bull case for 70+. However, the bulls seem like they might be tired after 3 weeks of uptrend. If we fall back below 58.18 we could see a FAST pull back to mid to upper 40s. If we pull back losing the uptrend and we go right to low 40s... It might still be crypto winter.
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LTC has been and will continue to be one of the coins I like fundamentally, technically, and from a game theory perspective. LTC is not a one and only coin for me. Moving on.
Right now a few things are catching my interest for both bull and bear ideas.
Bear:
- Looks like an ascending wedge or channel. An ascending wedge is typically bearish but a channel could be bullish. This one is tough to tell as it is narrowing but not by much. Bears were in control for a LONG time until recently so I will give the benefit to the bearish ascending wedge.
- Volume has been tapering down since the initial move up in mid Feb. This is a bit alarming because we have been in an uptrend despite tapering volume.
- We have now TRIPLE TOPED at about 61.30. This price has not been much in terms of a historical resistance level... I think the bulls might be tired.
Bull:
- We have been in a higher low higher high pattern since Feb 7th 2019 on the 4 hr! We are very close to getting our second green month in a row. We have not had two green months in over a year so this is very notable! This is definitely bullish BUT last time this happened we ran from about 51 to 420 soooo yeh... not 2017 bullish.
- Growth has been healthy. RSI has not gone crazy extreme in either direction. Indicates bullish accumulation during the uptrend. Bulls are finally starting to be right again and this is more synergistic for price. It is my opinion that most organic volume in crypto are speculators and they are speculating in the bullish direction either because they love crypto OR their exchange does not allow them to short. Either way I think the money can flow into bullish positions easier than it can into bearish at this time so the potential for a good fomo push at this price and time is strong.
- We are nearing a price point where the resistance levels spread out so IF we can keep from falling out of the channel/wedge, the upside movement could be explosive. Great opportunity to take a long with a tight stop initially and then move that stop up to be in solid profit.
Potential FLAGS:
Bears are probably salivating at the potential break of 57.20. We could see a violent pull back to around 48-45 if we fall out of the channel.
Bulls have been VERY strong for 3 weeks between 57 and 58. If we hold this support or break up in the next day or two odds will be in favor of staying in the channel/wedge. Since resistance thins out above our current price, fomo could move us back to the top of the channel or beyond. 70+ would be a possibility.
Conclusion
What we have seen this year so far was an initial relief spike in early Jan after the massive down trend of 2018. A small disbelief rally, if you will, where people were essentially saying "omg we made it." This was followed by some timid accumulation for the rest of Jan 2019. Psychologically I think January was "omg we made it and now crypto has to rebound. OMG I'm green, let’s take the money and get out before this thing goes lower."
News and sentiment were dark in December 18 and early Jan 19. We were not at blood in the streets/suicide hotline status but a lot of the discussion was about getting rekt and the failures that were killing crypto. Blame was be slung like monkey poo and honestly it felt like there was potential to lose this ENTIRE investment.
Then at the end on Jane 19 it seemed as if the market finally breathed a sigh of relief. We FINALLY HELD SUPPORT rather than just going lower. It began to feel like we made it through the crypto winter without dying and maybe 2019 would bring some new life to the space.
Now we are seeing some green and the bulls are coming out to graze even though they are just little calfs at this point.
Bullish development news is starting to move the market again and there seems to be real catalyst level things coming like large corporate adoption. Not for LTC specifically but, for example, if JPM is coming out with a crypto after saying what they did about crypto then my thinking is that this is EXTREMELY BULLISH. They are terrified they are going to miss an opportunity.
Halvening, starbucks, mass use cases, and large corporations looking at crypto as new ways to transact and value their companies. It seems that the idea of coins being shares of a company, which you can also transact with, is finally catching on which is very exciting to me. I have been waiting for this since early 2017. I see no better way crypto can merge pools of capital then this. Think about it; this is a direct merger of wall street and consumer purchasing and its actually quite elegant.
One last thing:
Tax Ideas... I do my own taxes and I make some investment decisions based on how much tax I will pay. So let me bring this up because I think it is valuable; I sold everything and re bought some but not full positions at the end of 2018. Crypto does not have wash trading rules at this point so you can do this and "realize losses" with a quick in and out trade. I did this because I was able to fully offset all my stock market trading gains and create a LARGE carryover for next year. I am SURE I am not the only one that figured this out. The loss is bad but "realizing" the loss got me about 30% BACK by offsetting the stock capital gains I was going to have to pay already. Also it created a big chunk of gains that I can now get tax free next year. This is huge when thinking bigger picture and long term.
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If you have opinions or thoughts, I would love to hear them also.
