Liberation, Altercation & Boom: US China Trade talks CME_MINI:ES1!
Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out.
Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd.
After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit pause. In a joint statement that’s given markets some breathing room, both countries announced a 90-day suspension on a large portion of their punitive tariffs—an initial step toward dialing back tensions and restarting dialogue.
Key Tariff Measures from US-China Joint Statement (90-Day Pause)
US Tariff Reductions:
Tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period.
24 percentage points suspended, leaving a 10% base tariff in place.
China Tariff Reductions:
Tariffs on US goods reduced from 125% to 10% for the same 90-day period.
China also suspends 24 percentage points of additional ad valorem duties.
Retains a 10% baseline tariff on US imports.
Non-Tariff Measures: China to suspend or remove all non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2.
Includes sanctions on certain US companies.
Lifts export controls on some critical minerals.
Timeline & Commitment:
Both parties agree to implement these actions by May 14.
Commitment to continue trade and economic talks through a new bilateral mechanism.
Talks may be held in alternating locations (US/China) or via third-party venues.
No Agreement On:
Currency policy.
E-commerce “de minimis” exemptions.
Sector-specific tariff frameworks.
Future Key Dates and Timeline:
May - Potential US semiconductor tariffs.
May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs.
July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires.
July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect.
August 10th - US-China tariff relief expires.
Was this really mutual or just a game of chicken?
There’s an argument to be made that this is more of a tactical pause than a full reconciliation. With China’s GDP in purchasing power parity terms now surpassing that of the US, and its continued technological advancements across sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, and critical minerals, the balance of economic leverage is shifting. For investors, this isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about the evolving structure of global trade.
Geopolitical undercurrents continue to shape the backdrop. China’s strategic influence in regional security, technology supply chains, and commodity access adds another layer to its negotiating position. Recent developments—such as China's reassertion of dominance in strategic corridors and growing control over key mineral exports—suggest its economic posture is becoming more assertive. This, in turn, has implications for US firms dependent on Chinese inputs or facing retaliatory restrictions.
In short, the 90-day window presents a tactical opportunity, but the structural story remains complex. Investors would be wise to monitor not just tariff updates, but broader shifts in trade alliances, export controls, and supply chain vulnerabilities—especially in sectors like tech, energy, and defense-adjacent industries.
ES Futures:
ES Futures and risk on assets are positive across the board following this announcement.
Key Levels:
Key LVN/ Key LIS: 5861-5837.25
200 Day MA: 5872.99
0.786 Fib Retracement level: 5921.75
0.618 Fib Retracement level: 5688.75
pWkHi: 5741
mCVAL 2025: 5639.75
Expectations for the week ahead:
US CPI and Retail Sales data on the docket this week along with slew of FED speakers.
Scenario 1: Risk on
ES Futures get back above 200-day moving average clearing the key LVN resistance zone and our key LIS, head towards 0.786 Fib retracement level before pulling back and consolidating for the remainder of the week.
Example trade:
Entry: 5861
Stop: 5837
Target: 5921.75
Risk: 96 ticks
Reward: 243 ticks
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.5 R
Scenario 2: Further consolidation
Markets consolidate below the key LVN resistance zone and prior weekly high.
Example Trade:
Entry: 5837
Stop: 5861
Target: 5741
Risk: 96 ticks
Reward: 384 ticks
Risk/Reward ratio: 4 R
Glossary:
VA: Value Area
VPOC: Volume Point of Control
VAL: Value Area Low
C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.)
mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
LNV: Low Volume Node
LIS: Line in Sand
Important Notes:
These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
