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Tradetheplan

EUR/HUF Some Wild Swings. Not for the Faint of HeartDid y'all see that yesterday. The EUR/HUF has a massive move lower for over 570 pips and I was able to catch that. I exited out of my position because I have been in the pair for a while now and think it is going to push higher. It is pushing higher now, so for now I am correct. But I think there might be a larger push higher. If this pair can hit 380 or higher, I'll likely get back in and start building up to a standard lot. The reason, the Technicals (monthly head and shoulders with price almost completing the head), Fundamentals (over 25% inflation, 13% interest rates, Hawkish NBH and the possibility of increasing rates), and sentiment (news, articles, thoughts, analysts are pointing to a stronger HUF) are all inline and providing support for each other. This strengthens the probability for price to move lower. This heightens my conviction in building larger positions on this pair as this might be an opportunity that I don't want to miss. Of course I am going to build my position in blocks and not just place one max position. I am thinking though, that the price might push higher because of the coming up ECB Rate Hike. But I am also skeptical that price will hit 380 (so, I might place an entry at 380.50). What would be good is to build a position above the 380, build a max position to have my average position above the 380, see price push to around 375 and place a stop at 380 (one can only dream). So now it's the waiting to see what price wants to do.
Short
by DollarSaenz
Oil is Ranging. So Where Will it break? Oil has been in a range towards the end of last year and price is fighting against pushing below the 75 lvl and staying below it. It makes sense as the news is mixed because there are positive and negative news for Oil. Check out the following: Positives for Oil: -China economy recovering and demand increasing -Russia plans to cut Oil exports by 25% and cut oil production by 500,000 barrels -EU ban on Russian Oil -OPEC maintaining production cuts -JP Morgan looking at $90 a barrel for Oil in the middle of the year Negatives for Oil: -to the FED increasing rates for the next three meetings -a possible global recession as majority of the G7 nations increase rates So, what will win out? The negatives or the positives. I am thinking Oil will be able to push higher in the short term (next few months) and eventually fall as interest rates push higher and higher. If inflation does not drop as fast the FED wants, it will need to crank up the the heat on inflation, by doing it through interest rates. In 2025, I think Oil is going to push back up to $100, maybe higher and if this does happen, it would be good if I am still in the GBP/CAD as price would likely be around 1.45. On a side note, there is a big push to renewable energies and electric vehicles, but this requires a lot of resources to produce on a massive scales and in the interim Oil will be needed. If this massive push does happen, in the beginning, Oil will increase exponentially until renewables take over. In the next couple years, lets see if I am correct: -price by the end of the year $80 -price in the beginning of 2024 (first 6 months) $70 - $80 and end of 2024 (last 6 months) $95 -price in 2025 $100+ (I keep thinking production is going to go off the rails with what's going to come out and the new technology)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DollarSaenz
Will the NZD/USD still be able hold above the 0.60 lvl?The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinvoked the power of the interest rate hikes to continue the battle in bringing inflation down. This news push the USD near the 106 lvl and hit the NZD/USD, pulling price below the 0.61 lvl. This was a hit to my position, but I ok with the floating loss currently. In order to reduce my risk, I added a stop at 0.60 because my thought is, if price pushes below the 0.60 lvl and holds by the end of the week, then I don't think I wrong on my R/A on this pair; I am just early. What I am going to do if I do get stopped out, I would wait a few days, see if price is still pushing lower, and then start building my position again. My objective is to have a max position before price pushes above the 0.65 lvl, so getting into a position below the 0.60 lvl, I think is an opportunity. There is also the thought of waiting until the USD NFP and CPI are released and the FED Rate Hike, as this could push the NZD/USD even further down. I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility. I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out. Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you. Y'all have some good trading out there.
Long
by DollarSaenz
2
Will Silver be able to hit and break the 20 levelThe FED is increasing rates higher and higher and it is looking like they will increase rates past 5%. The next increase comes in March and it will either be 25 basis points or 50. A 50 basis point increase will definitely push Silver below the 20 level. Inflation is still high across all major countries and it is a battle between Central Banks fighting inflation and winning, but potentially pushing their economy into recession. Which one is more important. Fighting inflation, but pushing the economy into a recession or keeping inflation high and possible pushing a recession further out. But my plan is to get into Silver once price pushes lower. The lower the better. If price can hit 18 or lower, that would be a big opportunity to get in. I think Silver will break above the 50 lvl in 2025 as I keep thinking it is going to be a big year for all these new technologies coming out (Space, Robotics, AI, Medical, so on). Since the sentiment for the USD pushing higher is very strong, it is only inevitable for Silver to keep pushing lower. The lower it goes, maybe other countries, just like they have been doing with Gold, will start to buy it up in droves. But this is going to be around a two year play, maybe longer. So it is best to build up slowly and stay tuned for further developments in my plan.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by DollarSaenz
1
MLFB. Can we get a Season this year or Is it all over?I've been in MLFB for a while, since around 2018/2019. MLFB attempted to establish a season in 2020/2021, but due to COVID, they were unable too. Here comes 2022, and things were looking good. They were bringing on players, coaches, bought equipment, named teams, hand a place for a camp, and had some coverage. Things again were looking good. Around June/July, the actual camp was commencing, and out of now where, MLFB could not pay their hotel bills and left players stranded. The season went out the window and the price of the stock tanked. Now in 2023, MLFB is attempting to start up a season. They were able to get about 5 million to pay bills from last year they owed and hopefully have enough to start a season. If this is the case, and they are able to start up again, will price be able to go higher? As time goes on, I'll see if price starts pushing to $0.01 and starts hitting its high of last year around $0.03. If there is some more press releases and actual broadcasting commencing, this will assist the stock pushing higher. There are some good things about MLFB, but they are not doing great in the PR department. But if MLFB can keep fighting to start a season and one actually commencing, there might be light at the end of the tunnel. I am in this stock, and this is only my thoughts. Make your own decisions and conduct your own research and analysis before deciding to get into any stocks. I'll revisit this later on and see what happens.
MLong
by DollarSaenz
EUR/HUF A Hidden GemThe EUR/HUF is meeting all of my expectations on the Technicals, Fundamentals, and Sentiment. On the technicals, price is showing a head and shoulders patterns and price looks like it might be able to complete the head portion this year. The reason being is, on the fundamental side, the ECB is struggling to fight inflation, the National Hungarian Bank sticking to maintain the highest interest rates in the EU (at 13%), the NHB is not looking to loosen monetary policy, even if the Hungarian Governments wants them to, and inflation is extremely high at over 25%. Sentiment is very strong for the HUF, with a lot of articles in favor of the HUF. Also the EUR/HUF is a great carry trade, and with the possibility of the NBH possibly raising rates further, could push price down to my price target of 345.
Short
by DollarSaenz
My current Plan for EUR/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/HUFThis is my plan for the next few Quarters. My main focus is on the EUR/USD. If price is able to hit the 1.05 level, I will need to decide if I want to place a stop at 1.06 and ride price lower, or exit at 1.05 and move my focus over to the GBP/CAD and EUR/HUF. I might place a tighter stop and see if price is able to maintain the momentum lower on the EUR/USD. The GBP/CAD, I do want to get into a 50k position before price pushes lower. I think this pair is going to take a while to push lower, but it is only a matter of time. If I am able to get into a max position on the GBP/CAD and have a stop at 1.60, my conviction will be strong is holding onto the pair until the 1.50 level. The EUR/HUF, again, I like the positive rollover interest, so if price ranges, I am fine with price doing that. If price does push lower, I may add to my positions, but I am just thinking about it for now. The GBP/CAD has negative rollover, so the EUR/HUF and EUR/USD with there positive rollover is offsetting the negative rollover on the GBP/CAD. If I am correct on the GBP/CAD and EUR/HUF, Silver is becoming extremely enticing to get into next, especially if price pushes below the 20 level. I think Silver will be able to hit the $50 level, but that will likely happen in 2025 because space, robotics, AI, medical, electric vehicles, and so on will require a ton of Silver, which is a better conductor than copper.
by DollarSaenz