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BTC Intraday Market Analysis (Thesis Prediction)1. Current Market Position: Price: $101,645.39, down -1.9% in the last few hours. Support: $101,000 | Resistance: $103,000. Trend: Short-term bearish; BTC has failed to sustain key support levels but shows signs of possible stabilization on hourly charts. 2. Technical Indicators: RSI: 30.04, oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term bounce or consolidation. MACD: Bearish signal with MACD line at -46.82 below the signal line at -193.45. The narrowing histogram (-146.63) hints at diminishing bearish momentum. VWMA: Current price below VWMA at $102,847.77, signaling strong bearish sentiment. A move above this could suggest a reversal. 3. On-Chain Insights: Exchange Balances: No significant inflows or outflows (1.81M BTC held on exchanges), indicating stable liquidity. Open Interest: Longs: Down -27.39% to $3.78B. Shorts: Up +47.47% to $6.26B, reinforcing bearish bias. Funding Rates: Low (Binance: 0.0100%), reflecting minimal cost for holding short positions and bearish sentiment. 4. Financial and Sentiment Analysis: Trading Volume: Down -29.68% to $81.58B, signaling reduced activity or market consolidation. Fear & Greed Index: Dropped -10.71% to 75 (closer to neutral), indicating waning speculative enthusiasm. Market News: Reports on declining altcoins and BTC slipping below $102K from Cointelegraph could contribute to bearish sentiment. 5. Scenarios: Bearish Scenario (Confidence: 60%) Conditions: Persistent bearish sentiment, outflows from exchanges, and low funding rates suggest further selling pressure. Outcome: BTC could test $100,000 or lower, driven by technical and sentiment-based momentum. Bullish Scenario (Confidence: 25%) Conditions: Recovery if RSI moves out of oversold territory or positive sentiment emerges from news or trader behavior (e.g., increased long positions). Outcome: BTC might bounce to $102,000 or $103,000, especially if it breaks above the VWMA, signaling a potential trend reversal. Sideways Scenario (Confidence: 15%) Conditions: Mixed market sentiment with consolidation around current levels, lacking strong catalysts. Outcome: BTC likely trades in a narrow range between $101,000–$102,000, awaiting clearer direction. 6. Trading Strategies: Contrarian Play: With RSI in oversold, cautious long entries near $101,000 could target $102,000 or higher, but require tight risk management. Bearish Continuation: Align with the current trend by shorting on failed recoveries, targeting $100,000 with stop-losses above $103,000. 7. Conclusion: BTC’s short-term outlook remains bearish, but oversold indicators suggest potential for a bounce or consolidation. Traders should monitor VWMA, funding rates, and news updates to gauge momentum shifts. With market volatility elevated, maintaining strict risk controls and staying updated on sentiment is crucial for navigating the current conditions.
by titankarma
Hidden Risk: How to Uncover and Control Before You Click 'Buy'As seasoned traders, we understand that risk management isn't just a beginner's concept; it's the bedrock of sustainable profitability. We've moved beyond the rudimentary rules and are fluent in position sizing and stop-loss orders. But in the dynamic landscape of TradingView, where opportunities arise and vanish in the blink of an eye, even intermediate traders can fall prey to impulsive decisions that erode our hard-earned capital. The solution? Systematizing our risk assessment with a pre-trade risk profile. It isn't about reinventing the wheel but refining our approach to ensure that every trade aligns with our overall strategy and risk tolerance. It gives us an edge by keeping us disciplined. The Pitfalls of Complacency It's easy to become complacent when we've got a few winning trades under our belt. We start to feel invincible precisely when we're most vulnerable. We might skip steps, loosen our stop-losses, or increase our position sizes beyond our predefined limits. We are often driven by emotions rather than logic, and it's a slippery slope. Remember, even a well-defined risk management plan is useless if it's not consistently applied. Each trade carries unique risks influenced by factors beyond our standard calculations. Creating a Pre-Trade Risk Profile: A Refresher Before hitting that buy or sell button, click on TradingView to create a simple risk profile for the specific trade. Ask yourself a series of critical questions: 1. The Asset's Volatility: What's the current Average True Range (ATR)? How does it compare to the asset's historical ATR? Higher volatility demands wider stop-losses and potentially smaller position sizes. Are there any upcoming news events or economic releases that could impact volatility? Factor these in, as they can significantly alter the risk landscape. Be aware of, for instance, earning reports. 2. The Trade Setup: What's your entry point, and why? Is it based on an explicit technical signal, or are you chasing a move? Where's your stop-loss, and what is your rationale behind it? Is it placed below a key support level or based on a multiple of the ATR? What's your target price, and is it realistically achievable given the current market conditions? Avoid setting overly ambitious targets that expose you to unnecessary risk. 3. The Correlation Factor: How does this asset correlate with other positions in your portfolio? Are you inadvertently increasing your exposure to a specific sector or market trend? Could a single event trigger losses across multiple positions? Diversification is key, but it requires careful consideration of correlations. 4. The Time Factor: What's your intended holding period for this trade? The longer the timeframe, the greater the potential for unforeseen events to impact your position. Does your stop-loss need to be adjusted based on the timeframe? A wider stop-loss than a day trade might be necessary for a swing trade. 5. The "Gut Check": Are you comfortable with the potential loss on this trade? If the answer is no, it's a red flag. Either reduce your position size or reconsider the trade altogether. Are you trading based on a well-defined plan, or are emotions driving your decision? Be honest with yourself. From Profile to Action: Implementing Your Assessment Once you've answered these questions, you have a clearer picture of the trade's risk profile. Use this information to: Fine-tune your position size: Ensure it aligns with your pre-determined risk per trade (e.g., 1-2% of your capital). Set your stop-loss: Place it strategically based on the asset's volatility and your chosen support/resistance levels. Determine your risk/reward ratio: Is the potential profit worth your risk? Aim for at least a 1:2 or 1:3 risk/reward ratio. Bonus Tip: Develop Your Risk Score System Consider creating a simple risk score system to streamline your risk assessment further. Assign points to different risk factors based on their potential impact. For example, here is the Trade Impact Estimator (T.I.E): Volatility: Low Volatility (Below Average ATR): +1 point Average Volatility (Within Average ATR): 0 points High Volatility (Above Average ATR): -1 point News Events: Major News Event Scheduled: -2 points Minor News Event: -1 point No News Event: +1 Point Correlation: High Correlation with Existing Positions: -1 point Low Correlation: +1 point Timeframe: Day Trade: +1 point Swing Trade: 0 points Long-Term Trade: -1 point Trade setup: Good Risk/reward ratio: +1 point Neutral Risk/Reward ratio: 0 points Bad Risk/Reward ratio: -2 points Set Thresholds: Total Score of +3 or higher: Potentially a lower-risk trade, consider proceeding as planned. Total Score between 0 and +2: Proceed cautiously; consider reducing position size. Total Score of -1 or lower: Re-evaluate the trade, widen your stop-loss, significantly reduce position size, or avoid the trade altogether. Disclaimer: This is a simplified example. You can customize your risk score system to include additional factors and adjust the point values based on your own trading style and risk tolerance. You can also assign more points to factors that have historically impacted your trading results. It's crucial to backtest and refine your system over time. The Takeaway Mastering risk management is a continuous journey. By incorporating a pre-trade risk profile into our routine, we elevate our trading from reactive to proactive. We transform ourselves from gamblers to calculated risk-takers. On TradingView, where information flows ceaselessly, this disciplined approach is not just an advantage; it's a necessity. So, refine your process, stay vigilant, and make your trades profitable.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by hydtie
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad. Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔 We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines. Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade. To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being. This helps define the trade risk very well. If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out. To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down ! From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too. That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750). So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation? The following is a way to have: An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more) Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk Entry Points and Stops 9000 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8600 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9200 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8800 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9400 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Initial Risk: £1000. Profit Targets First Position (9000): Gain: 1000 points. Profit: £2500. Second Position (9200): Gain: 800 points. Profit: £2000. Third Position (9400): Trailing Stop Profit Example: 10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500. 11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more. Summary Total Risk: £3000. Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500. Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
LSE:IHGEducation
by jasperlawler
5
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, Please see update on our weekly chart idea. Sunday we stated we had a gap remaining at 2434 but just needed to keep in mind the conflicting resistance with the channel top. - 2434 was hit perfectly completing this target. We now have the final Axis target at 2505 and if momentum allows this week; we may just see this complete without confirmation. However, the ideal confirmation would need to be with a candle body close above 2434 this week to confirm this gap or ema5 cross and lock for a double confirmation. The levels within the channel will provide the bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips in true level to level fashion, using our smaller time-frames. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings, instead of chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
4
Scalping Strategy for Trading BTCUSD on 15minThe Bollinger Band is a versatile technical indicator. It identifies trend direction, momentum, volatility, and overbought or oversold price conditions. This indicator provides all this information using three lines. The middle line of the classic Bollinger Bands is based on a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Two lines are then drawn above and below the middle line forming a channel. The upper and lower lines are derived from the middle line by computing for the standard deviation of price movements compared to the 20 SMA. Because the outer bands are based on a standard deviation of price movements, the band tends to contract during market conditions with low volatility and expands during an influx of volume and volatility. Price breaching the bands could indicate a strong momentum, while price rejecting the outer lines could signal a probable mean reversal. The middle line of the Bollinger Band could also be used just as a standard Simple Moving Average. Trend could be based on how the line is sloping. It could also be used as a dynamic support or resistance line where price could bounce off. Advanced Bollinger Bands is a modified Bollinger Band which allows more control over how the lines are drawn. Traders could modify the type of moving average, the basis of price being applied to the computation, and much more. == MACD Signals == The classic Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) is based on the difference between a 12-period and 26-period Exponential Moving Average. It is then displayed as an oscillator that becomes positive during an uptrend and negative during a downtrend. A second line, called the signal line, is then derived from the MACD line. The signal line is a Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the MACD line. Trade signals are then generated based on the crossing over of the MACD line and the signal line. MACD Signals is modified version of the classic MACD. It allows more control for traders by allowing traders to tweak the type of moving average line used on each parameter. It could also be set to indicate trade signals generated by the MACD. The MACD Signals is displayed as an oscillating histogram. Positive bars indicate a bullish trend while negative bars indicate a bearish trend. Trade signals could be generated based on the crossing of the bars over its midline. == Trading Strategy == This trading strategy identifies possible trade setups based on the crossing over of a 5-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) line and the midline of the Bollinger Bands. These signals should be in confluence with the signals generated by the MACD Signals indicator. Trades should first be filtered based on the direction of the long-term trend. To do this, we will be using a 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Trend direction are simply based on the location of price in relation to the 200 SMA, as well as the slope of the 200 SMA line. Then, we will be waiting for a confluence of the crossover of the 5 SMA line and midline of the Bollinger Band and the trend reversal signal generated by the MACD bars. Trades are then confirmed based on the type of price action and candlestick patterns occurring around significant areas on the Bollinger Bands. It could be an indication of price rejection of the outer bands or a strong momentum as price crosses over the midline. == Indicators == 200 SMA (Green) bollinger_bands (default setting with 21 MA) MACD_Signals MAFast: 6 MASlow: 15 MASignal: 1 Preferred Time Frames: 15 min Trading Sessions : Tokyo, London and New York sessions == Buy Trade Setup == Entry Price should be above the 200 SMA line. The 200 SMA line should be sloping up. The 5 SMA line should cross above the midline of the Bollinger Band. Price action should show bullish patterns and indications. Enter a buy order on the confirmation of these conditions. Stop Loss Set the stop loss on the fractal below the entry candle. Exit Close the trade as soon as price closes below the midline (21MA) of the Bollinger Band.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Michael_Harding
Forex Fundamentals: Building Winning StrategiesForex trading success hinges on a well-defined strategy, as it sets a clear direction and methodology, whether it be scalping, day trading, or another approach. Key to this is understanding the market conditions under which your strategy thrives, as different strategies perform variably across market environments. Employing technical indicators is crucial in providing insights and aiding in decision-making, but they must align with your overall strategy for coherence and effectiveness. The core of any trading strategy lies in its entry and exit criteria. These criteria ensure disciplined and non-impulsive trading decisions, allowing for entry and exit from the market at the most opportune times. Equally vital is stringent risk management, which protects your capital by defining the risk per trade and setting maximum drawdown limits. In tandem with this, appropriate position sizing mitigates the risk of substantial losses and maintains the health of your trading account. Backtesting the strategy against historical data is indispensable for understanding its potential effectiveness and challenges. This, followed by forward testing in real-time conditions, often in a demo environment, allows for fine-tuning and adaptation to current market dynamics. Constant adjustments and optimization of your strategy are necessary as financial markets are ever-evolving, and a static strategy is often a recipe for failure. However, the strategy itself is only part of the equation. The psychological aspect of trading – maintaining discipline and managing emotional responses – is equally critical. Regular performance evaluations and reviews provide insights into the strategy's effectiveness and areas that require improvement, fostering a cycle of continuous learning and adaptation. In the realm of Forex trading, patience and consistency are not just virtues but necessities. The development, implementation, and refinement of a trading strategy is a meticulous and ongoing process. Success in trading emerges from a disciplined approach, a willingness to learn continuously, and an adaptability to evolving market conditions. It's a journey where each step, from understanding market conditions to psychological resilience, plays a pivotal role in shaping a trader's path to achievement.
Education
by Wiiso
The Forex Market: A World of OpportunitiesForex trading, also known as foreign exchange trading, buys and sells currencies to make a profit. It is the largest and most liquid financial market globally, with trillions of dollars traded daily. The forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, allowing traders worldwide to participate. The Importance of Patience 🕰️ Patience is a fundamental quality that every successful forex trader possesses. It is the ability to wait for the right opportunities and not rush into impulsive decisions. In the fast-paced world of forex trading, jumping into trades without proper analysis and exiting prematurely can be tempting due to fear or greed. However, patience lets us stay calm, focused, and disciplined, leading to better trading outcomes. Building a Strong Foundation 🏗️ Before diving into the exciting world of forex trading, building a solid knowledge foundation is essential. Understanding the basics will empower you to make informed decisions and navigate the market confidently. Here are a few key concepts to get you started: Currency Pairs: Forex trading involves the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currency pairs are quoted with each other, such as EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. The EUR stands for European Euro. The USD stands for the United States Dollar. The Euro is also called the base currency because it's the currency being bought with the United States Dollar. So, for every Euro being bought, the United States must exchange the equivalent amount in their currency, hence, the exchange rate. Search EURUSD in your trading view chart. The price scale to the left shows you the exchange rate or price it currently costs to buy 1 EURO in the United States Dollar. Pips: A pip is the smallest unit of measurement in forex trading, representing the fourth decimal place in most currency pairs. It is used to measure price movements. To go deeper, every hundred pips equals 1 cent or 1 penny. So when you think about it, if you gain 50 pips on average, you're gaining half a cent. If this was a Yen (JPY) pair, every 100 pips equals one Yen. So, on average, if you gain 50 pips, you're gaining half a Yen. Little things like this matter when trading because on a price chart, things can seem so big, when in reality, the movement of currency on a price chart is small, which can result in huge profits for you trading the trend. Leverage: Leverage allows traders to control larger positions with less capital. While it can amplify profits, it also increases the risk of losses. Leverage is borrowed money the broker gives you to trade with. It can increase your position size significantly. But be careful; too much leverage can make you overtrade, while insufficient money can make you resent trading if you can't trade the size you desire. You can also think of leverage as space or how much room you can let the trade move against you before taking a profit. If your trade doesn't have enough room to move and you use most of your money in one position, the broker will do a margin call. That means your trade has no room to move, and you are out of money to trade with, so they will automatically close your trade. On the flip side, if the position is too big before you place a trade, the broker will not allow you to enter a trade until you decrease your position size. It's like living. While we must live within our means until we get more money to increase the quality of our lives, we must trade within the means of our account balance. Market Orders and Limit Orders: Market orders are executed immediately at the current market price, while limit orders are placed to buy or sell at a specific price level. A market order is an order you execute yourself. For example, if I wanted to enter a trade right now, I'd push the buy or sell button, place my stop loss and take profit, and hit the buy or sell button again in the direction I desire the price to move in. If I was pressed for time, I could do the same thing, but I'd place a pending order at the price I want the broker to trigger my trade-in, so if I'm not there and the price reaches that price, the broker will do the job for me. The Journey Ahead 🚀 As we embark on this journey together, remember that forex trading is a skill that takes time and practice to master. Patience will be your guiding light, helping you make rational decisions and avoid unnecessary risks. The next time we speak we will explore the importance of identifying key supply and demand zones to make informed trading decisions. Stay tuned, and get ready to level up your trading game! 💪 Your Forex Coach, Shaquan
Education
by ShaquanLopez
1
Essentials for Prosperous TradingWhile the basics seem straightforward, the intricacies of the market often trip up even the most knowledgeable individuals. Trading transcends a mere understanding of market dynamics; it requires a unique blend of pattern recognition, abstract thinking, and a mindset that combines personality traits, self-discipline, and a specific mental approach. The Foundations of Successful Trading: 🟣 Unmasking the Illusion of Gambling: A staggering 99% of novice traders harbor unrealistic expectations about potential returns, often treating trading as a form of gambling. The first step toward success involves dispelling these illusions. 🟣 Setting and Maintaining Your Risk-Reward Ratio: Risk management is paramount. By risking no more than 1% of the deposit per trade and employing a variable lot size, traders gain consistent control over the risks involved. 🟣 Resisting the All-In Temptation: Novice traders often succumb to the allure of recovering losses hastily by going all in on a single trade. Learning gradually, even at the cost of account diminution, is a crucial aspect of trading education. 🟣 Capital Protection through Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders is imperative. Relying on the erroneous belief that one can manually close a position when the pre-determined stop-loss level is hit is a perilous misconception. 🟣 Instituting Loss-Cutting Measures: Setting a daily loss limit and refraining from trading after a set number of consecutive losses are essential to prevent emotional trading and safeguard capital. Maintaining Composure in the Trading Arena: 🟣 The Role of Emotional Intelligence: Exemplary traders exhibit robotic emotional detachment while retaining the cognitive flexibility and intuition that machines lack. Timing entry points accurately is paramount to success. 🟣 Emotion Control: Whether it's euphoria or panic, extremes of emotion are detrimental to successful trading. The mantra is clear: emotions belong in a casino; trading is all about business. 🟣 Overcoming FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Resisting the urge to trade uncertain opportunities out of fear of missing potential profits is crucial. Decisions driven by FOMO are counterproductive and should be avoided. 🟣 Breaking Free from Herd Mentality: Following the crowd leads to the 99% category of losing traders. Individualized strategies, free from herd mentality, are key to success. 🟣 Crafting a Watch List: Building a diverse watch list provides choices. Seeking opportunities within this list avoids the futile pursuit of non-existent patterns. Consistency: The Key to Sustainable Success: 🟣 Steady Gains Over Boom-Bust Performances: Establishing consistent trading practices is pivotal for transforming trading into a reliable income source. Slow, steady gains surpass erratic boom-bust performances. 🟣 Identifying a Strategy: Conducting thorough research on various trading strategies and selecting those that align with personal understanding is the foundation of success. 🟣 Utilizing Paper Trading and Backtesting: Validation through backtesting and real-time insights from paper trading refine chosen strategies and enhance their effectiveness. 🟣 Tracking Trades for Insight: Maintaining a comprehensive record of trades is an invaluable tool. Analyzing this data helps identify strengths, weaknesses, and patterns in trading. 🟣 Formalizing Rules for Objectivity: Objectivity is the linchpin of consistent trading. Defining each element of a strategy precisely and creating a strict algorithm to follow meticulously ensures emotional detachment.
Education
by Vestinda
2
Trading strategyA trading strategy encompasses a set of guidelines for initiating a position. A trading system encompasses a set of rules for consistently profitable trading. This involves a clear comprehension of your strategy, specifying the assets you trade, the setups you utilize, the risk involved, preferred timeframes, and other pertinent details. Consistency: A meticulously crafted action plan serves as a tool to maintain a steady trading strategy while minimizing the sway of emotions on your decision-making. Such consistency often yields more predictable results and enhances overall performance over time. Confidence: Equipped with a playbook, you can trade with increased self-assurance, knowing that you are following a tried-and-tested strategy. This confidence alleviates stress and anxiety, enabling you to maintain focus and make sound decisions. Adaptability: In the face of shifting market conditions, having a playbook at your disposal empowers you to adjust and fine-tune your strategies as needed. This adaptability is a critical factor in staying ahead and sustaining success in the constantly evolving realm of trading. 4 distinct components that constitute a trading strategy: Context: Context encompasses the surroundings and circumstances related to a trading idea or event. It is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation and is vital for maximizing the potential of your trading strategy. Many traders erroneously believe that a trading strategy is simply about identifying patterns or triggers along with basic risk management. For instance, some may focus on trading Order Blocks. However, the key to making Order Blocks a profitable tool lies in applying the correct context. Patterns: The second component involves identifying the triggers or patterns that dictate when to enter a position. Context is applied to these triggers for in-depth analysis, aligning them with the risk-to-reward parameters defined in your trading system. Triggers can vary widely and should be chosen according to your individual trading style and strategy. Position Management: Inexperienced traders often find themselves overwhelmed when they enter a position, leading to irrational decisions. Defining a repeatable process for managing your trades is essential. This process should align with the goals set out in your trading strategy. For instance, if your strategy aims for a risk-to-reward ratio of 3R or higher, your approach will differ from someone targeting a minimum of 1.5R. To ensure consistency, it's crucial to avoid excessive discretion when managing positions, such as attempting to achieve a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio, placing short stops, or averaging down. Instead, aim for strict consistency, gradually honing your skills. Risk Management: The final facet of any trading system is risk management. Poor risk management is a leading cause of trader failures. It often results from excessive leverage and a lack of understanding. Your risk management plan doesn't need to be overly complex, but it must be clear and diligently adhered to. By following a robust risk management strategy, you can avoid the pitfalls that ensnare many inexperienced traders who destroy their accounts due to reckless trading practices. It may vary depending on your trading style, but for day trading I recommend the following: * 1% maximum risk per trade * 2% maximum per day * 6% maximum per week * 10% maximum per month 6 essential steps to build and refine your trading strategy: Determine Your Trading Style: Start by defining your trading style, whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor. This choice guides your selection of appropriate strategies, time frames, and risk management techniques. For instance, specify your preferred win rate (e.g., 50%+), risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2R minimum), and trading style (e.g., scalping, position trading, or swing trading). Research and Select Strategies: Explore various trading strategies and choose the ones that align with your trading style, risk tolerance, and financial objectives. You may want to consider strategies like Smart Money trading, which could be particularly beneficial. Define Entry and Exit Criteria: For each selected strategy, outline precise entry and exit criteria. Determine your stop loss and profit targets to ensure you execute trades accurately and limit potential losses. It's crucial to establish a well-defined trade management plan that guides step-by-step position management. For example, decide to move your position to break-even when a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is reached, open trades exclusively with a 1:2 ratio, or close 50% of your position at 1:1 and the remaining 50% at 1:3. Establish Risk Management Rules: Implement robust risk management rules to safeguard your capital. These rules might include setting a maximum percentage of your account balance to risk per trade or using Expert Advisors to automatically determine position sizing for risk control. Test Your Strategies: Prior to committing real capital, test your strategies using historical market data or a demo account. This testing phase allows you to refine your strategy and build confidence in your approach. If you cannot achieve positive results on a demo account, it's advisable to avoid risking real money until you've honed your skills. Analyze Your Trades: Maintain a comprehensive trade journal recording the strategy used, entry and exit points, and relevant market conditions for each trade. Regularly review your trade results to pinpoint areas for improvement and adapt your trading plan accordingly. Analyzing your trades is crucial for continuous growth as a trader. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
13
A BEARISH IDEA ON USDJPYHey traders, haven't done my TECHNICAL ANALYSIS on the 30MINS time frame, my idea on USDJPY is a bearish one ..... looking closely at the 30MINS chart on FOREXCOM:USDJPY , one can see the market formed an before we eventually saw a break of structure outside of the lower trend line ...... later on, price came back to retest the lower trend line giving us an ENGULFING BEARISH CANDLE closing below the previous opening candle Hence, i have a convincing However, i will be sharing a TOP DOWN ANALYSIS on this same pair on the 1MONTH TIME FRAME. SEE YOU THERE INNNNN ANNNND OOUUUUT.
Short
by Kryptomaps
2
The most common malpractice in all of Trading: Back-testingGiven ANY in- or out-of-sample time series, including purely random, synthetic data, anyone can generate (inflate) ANY Sharpe Ratio by repeatedly applying different trading or investment strategies to the same time series sample! By definition, purely random data has no discernible structure. Consequently, no method can exist to predict such a sequence - I.e., Sharpe Ratio = 0 must hold in all instances. Yet, ... See main graph! In the past It has been shown just how easy it is to generate Sharpe Ratios of 4, 5 or even >6, on any data, including on purely random, synthetic time series data when in fact, the only possible value in those instances should be S.R. = 0. As a matter of fact, this misleading (self-defeatists?) practice is so common and wide spread in finance and trading that the American Statistical Association considers it "unethical" (American Statistical Association ). (More importantly, it is a remarkably expensive way to fool oneself.) The above stems from applying the same rejection threshold for the null hypothesis under multiple testing will grossly underestimate the probability of obtaining a false positive. Unlike in the "other sciences", there is no "replication crisis" in finance or trading, simply because such checks don't even exist there - since those would be impossible to carry out. (Is that why the only two kinds of academic papers which never get revised or retracted are written in the fields of Finance and Theology?) The bottom line; In the common case of testing a trading or investment system, given a set of out-of-sample time series, one MUST increase the rejection threshold for the null hypothesis in proportion to the number of times ("peeks") such tests are carried out! (Good luck fooling yourself that way!) Anything less is just simple curve-fitting! For more in-depth explorations: Marcos López de Prado, Michael J. Lewis codemacher.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Nemo_Confidat
5
3 Best Market Trading Opportunities to Maximize Profit Potential Hey traders, In the today's article, we will discuss 3 types of incredibly accurate setups that you can apply for trading financial markets. 1. Trend Line Breakout and Retest The first setup is a classic trend line breakout. Please, note that such a setup will be accurate if the trend line is based on at least 3 consequent bullish or bearish moves. If the market bounces from a trend line, it is a vertical support. If the market drops from a trend line, it is a vertical resistance. The breakout of the trend line - vertical support is a candle close below that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to sell the market from. The breakout of the trend line - vertical resistance is a candle close above that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to buy the market from. Take a look at the example. On GBPJPY, the market was growing steadily, respecting a rising trend line that was a vertical support. A candle close below that confirmed its bearish violation. It turned into a vertical resistance. Its retest was a perfect point to sell the market from. 2. Horizontal Structure Breakout and Retest The second setup is a breakout of a horizontal key level. The breakout of a horizontal support and a candle close below that is a strong bearish signal. After a breakout, a support turns into a resistance. Its retest is a safe point to sell the market from. The breakout of a horizontal resistance and a candle close above that is a strong bullish signal. After a breakout, a resistance turns into a support. Its retest if a safe point to buy the market from. Here is the example. WTI Crude Oil broke a key daily structure resistance. A candle close above confirmed the violation. After a breakout, the broken resistance turned into a support. Its test was a perfect point to buy the market from. 3. Buying / Selling the Market After Pullbacks The third option is to trade the market after pullbacks. However, remember that the market should be strictly in a trend. In a bullish trend, the market corrects itself after it sets new higher highs. The higher lows usually respect the rising trend lines. Buying the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade. In a bearish trend, after the price sets lower lows, the correctional movements initiate. The lower highs quite often respect the falling trend lines. Selling the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade. On the chart above, we can see EURAUD pair trading in a bullish trend. After the price sets new highs, it retraces to a rising trend line. Once the trend line is reached, trend-following movements initiate. What I like about these 3 setups is the fact that they work on every market and on every time frame. So no matter what you trade and what is your trading style, you can apply them for making nice profits. Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
34
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open12/07US markets had another rally ahead of the all important CPI data release prior to the US open. It seems that markets have dragged in bulls recently which sets up for an interesting market if the CPI figure comes out stronger than expected...meaning sticky inflation and further rate rises. US Bond yields held steady while the USD swung between gains and losses in a holding pattern prior to the data release. Expecting a stronger open in Asia with the ASX200 to open up 30 pts, the Nikkei to open up 80 pts and Hang Seng to open up 90 pts also. Traders are focused on the US CPI data release and what that means to inflation and rate rises. Hopes will be that we are at the end of the rate rise cycle which to me means a slowing global economy. Also on the cards will be coming US earnings. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper ** If you like the content then take a look at my WEBSITE in the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. **
COMEX:HG1!
by TradeTheStructure
Creating Your Trading Strategy: Simple Steps and Common PitfallsWhen it comes to using technical analysis for making trading decisions, a solid, simple, yet robust trading strategy is an essential foundation for traders to achieve consistent profits. However, constructing that strategy can be a challenge, especially for those new to trading, as there is an overwhelming amount of information out there. There are nearly countless books written on the subject of trading strategies. We want to simplify the process so that you can develop your own approach and get started. Step 1: Determine your market, timeframe, and trading methodology The overall first step in constructing a trading strategy is to determine: the market, trading methodology, and time frames you wish to take on. This will help you choose the appropriate indicators and approach to your trades. There are several markets to choose from, but it is highly recommended that you pick one when you first start trading. It is easy to look at all of the opportunities present in the market and potentially overplay your hand by trading too many, which can lead to devastating losses. As an example, if you wanted to scalp the forex market, it would be best to pick one or two currency pairs to trade rather than trying to monitor all major currency pairs for opportunities. Defining your trading methodology is another aspect of this step. Are you intending to hold stock or ETFs long-term? Do you want to swing trade or day trade cryptocurrencies? Maybe you believe you want to scalp the forex market. Doing your own research into these varying methodologies is a paramount step in formulating your strategy. Research all of them to better understand what they are and how they may fit your overall goals and risk tolerance. Your trading style can help determine what overall time frames you are looking at. A long-term holder will typically rely on higher time frames such as the daily or weekly timeframe. While a trader who predominantly scalps may rely more heavily on the 1-minute or 5-minute timeframes. Choosing the appropriate time frames and sticking with them for your trading decisions will help you achieve discipline and consistency. Step 2: Choose your indicators When choosing indicators for your trading strategy, it is important to know that there are several broad indicator categories to choose from. Included in these categories are: trend-following indicators, momentum indicators, volatility indicators, and volume indicators. Trend-following indicators help traders identify the direction of the trend, while momentum indicators measure the overall strength of a trend. Volatility indicators help traders identify the level of price volatility in the market, and volume indicators measure the amount of trading activity taking place. Traders commonly pick a combination of these to be included in their strategy to help give a clearer overall picture of the potential market direction. It is crucial to keep your strategy simple, so we recommend using 2-4 indicators at most. Choosing the right indicator combinations can be difficult, but is crucial to the success of your trading strategy. While it may be tempting to use multiple indicators in the hope of finding the perfect combination, having too many indicators can do more harm than good. When you have too many indicators, it becomes difficult to make clear decisions. You may end up with conflicting signals that can cause confusion and lead to losses or missed opportunities. It's important to choose only a few indicators that complement each other and provide valuable information about the market conditions. This will allow you to make more informed decisions and stick to your trading plan with greater confidence. Step 3: Define your entry and exit rules Once you have chosen your indicators, the next step is to define your entry and exit rules. This will help you determine when to open and close trades. For entries, you are taking the signals generated by the indicators you have chosen in step two and making a clear and definable set of rules for entering a trade. There can be other factors, such as market structure that play a role, but from an indicator standpoint, it is good to make these rules easy to follow. Your chosen technical indicators can also be used to exit trades. For example, traders may incorporate moving averages into their strategies, and moving averages can be used for both entries and exits. Other exit conditions include having hard set take profit or stop losses. We covered this topic in our stop loss article a few weeks back (and we highly recommend you check it out). No matter how you decide to make your entry and exit rules, please ensure you implement proper risk mitigation techniques to protect your account, and in turn, help you grow. Step 4: Backtest your strategy and practice, practice, practice Before putting your strategy into action it is essential to backtest it using historical data. This will help you determine if your strategy is profitable and identify any areas that need improvement. Note that while backtesting is an important part of determining if your strategy is successful, past results are not indicative of future success. Another aspect of this step is putting your strategy into practice. We never recommend diving straight into the deep end with your money before practicing. There are many free demo account options out there to get started. It is recommended that you find one that fits your needs based on the market you will be trading. The key part of this step is patience and carrying over that patience for when you are ready to go live with your strategy. Common pitfalls to avoid: When constructing a trading strategy, it is important to avoid common pitfalls that can lead to losses or missed trading opportunities. Some common pitfalls include: Overcomplicating your strategy: Using too many indicators or rules can make your strategy overly complex and difficult to follow. Failing to backtest and practice: Backtesting is essential to ensure your strategy is profitable and identify areas that need improvement. Ignoring risk management: Proper risk management is essential to minimize losses and maximize profits. Losing patience and jumping right in: It is easy for anyone to find a hot new indicator they believe is their edge in the market and to subsequently jump right into trading. Don’t fall into this trap as the outcome is seldom good! Take your time and become a student of the market you are trading, and a student of your strategy In conclusion, constructing a robust yet simple trading strategy using indicators requires careful consideration of your market and timeframe, choosing the appropriate indicators defining your entry and exit rules, and backtesting your strategy. There are other aspects of technical analysis that could be tied in between the steps listed above such as market structure and patterns. However, the goal of this article was to make the process as simple as possible to help traders get on the right path. By avoiding common pitfalls such as overcomplicating your strategy, failing to backtest, ignoring risk management, and chasing after losses, traders can increase their chances of success in the markets.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by LeafAlgo
5
The most common mistakes in trading Today, I will share a practical secret that I have learned for many years. Don’t hesitate when trading. If you hesitate, then don’t trade in the short term. Many people also have the habit of making trading plans. For example, I will enter the market at any position today, but when the opportunity really arises, I hesitate to make a decision. After the market ends, I find that I have made a profit, but I did not enter the market, and wait until the opportunity appears again. At that time, I thought to wait a little longer, but it turned out to be profitable again, and I still didn’t enter the market. Finally, I finally made up my mind that the next time I was in this position, I would definitely enter the market. As a result, when he entered the market, what he ushered in was a loss. In fact, in the trading market, good entry opportunities are fleeting and will not come often. If frequent entry opportunities appear, it must be a trap. When you have made a plan, all you need to do is Strictly implement, if you have no confidence when you enter the market, then I suggest that you do not make any transactions in the short term, because your plan has been disrupted, and the market likes to confuse your eyes and challenge your bottom line. It's also a psychological game. I make my trading plan every day and strictly implement it, so friends who follow me can receive my plan as soon as possible, which can be used as a reference, but I will choose to enter the market at the first time, if you hesitate, choose the second The second or third chance to enter the market, the probability of loss will increase a lot, so don’t do this, you can consult me to get the latest plan. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by DailyPlan
18
Trading Strategy. Basic principlesThe following clearly outlines my trading strategy, every day I seek out deals based solely on this strategy. Without regular backtesting (trade by trade), the results of trading are random and uncertain. The cumulative outcome of the R-multipliers should be positive, but, if a routine backtest is conducted (after executing numerous trades based on sequential trading processes that offer us an edge) The primary focus of our trading strategy is the risk-to-reward ratio (RR), where a large number of losses can be offset by a single profitable trade. - Entry requirements are sufficient to prevent market noise. - Position sizing ensures we have a consistent (fixed) risk every transaction, and we adhere to this algorithm on each and every trade. - Maintaining the advantage afforded by our trading method requires mental preparation for the fluctuations that will effect our account balance. Short-term losses should have no psychological impact! Entry Standards: We join the market based on key supply and demand sectors that play a significant impact in the structure of the market. We identify them by emphasizing the M15, H4 points of interest responsible for the structure's collapse. Once the price reaches our point of interest, we will watch for a reaction in this area, which will indicate if the price intends to move higher or lower. The objective is to identify where a substantial position was taken and wait for the price to return to that point in order to reduce the repercussions and ensure the price follows its actual intentions. Countertrend: - Monitor price action and reaction points closely. - Do not be greedy; if required, close such deals sooner, but not before 3R; bring the trade to the following supply/demand zone. - Keep a close eye on price movement and response points when entering a trend. - Enter a trade based on the candle that triggered the CHoCh, move it to the next high/low level, and partially close if momentum appears to be waning. - There is no need to move the SL aggressively; instead, let the price to fluctuate and move the entry to break even only after the initial LH/HL is created. 4H Definition of Market structure Determine the price's response to important zones on a daily/weekly basis. How should I mark the chart? 4H - swing highs and lows - B.O.S - Supply and Demand zones - Liquidity H/L, EQH/EQL, internal liquidity trend - Orderflow structure HL - HH or LH - LL 15M How should I mark the chart? - fluctuate between highs and lows - ChoCh/BOS - Demand/supply zones - Liquidity, liquidity zones/points, strong/weak H/L, liquidity before poi - Premium/Discount - short discount and long premium. - Order flow 1-5M How should I mark the chart? - Liquidity grab (sweep) - Mitigation/RTO - S/D flip
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
US Market – Long, Mid & Short-Term ViewHow to formulate investing and trading ideas for the long, mid and short-term within one single market? In this tutorial, we are using S&P. What you are about to learn can be applied to all markets. Markets are giving us many confusing signals with Dow Jones. According to CNN report, it enjoyed its best month in nearly a half-century in October and it’s up nearly another 3% in November. Whereas Nasdaq and many other stocks are very much still in their negative zone for the year. Also, the Fed’s policy is not very encouraging, with their priority to curb inflation with higher interest extending to next year than to pause it so as to revive the economy. So, with all these confusing signals, we are going to learn how to derive: Content: • Long-term view with week • Mid-term view with day • Short-term view with 15min E-Mini S&P Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $12.50 1 point = $50 10 points = $500 I have started this trading series, the purpose is for “Investing & Trading into Longevity”. And again these strategies shared, they can be applied to most markets. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by konhow
1
EURNZD short is moving Trade details for current trade are shown on the chart. We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little red short arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Previous trades can also be seen on chart. All four hit TP lets see if this trade can. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork