BTC – Signs Of The BullRight up front, a disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes. It IS NOT a prediction of price curves. It’s meant to be a scenario in which signs of a bull run could be identified. As always, make investment decisions based on your own due diligence.
CHART LEGEND
Blue = Bullish price cycles
Green = Transition out of or into a bull market
Yellow = HOLD, No Man’s Land (or, after a bull run, GTFO!)
Orange = Transition into or out of a bear market
INTRO
This is one approach on how to look for signs of an upcoming bull run, while still in a bear market. There are many signs that a bull run is near. However, there are NO signs this bull run will last very long. So, as always, stay on your toes.
IF (this is a big “if”) this is the beginning of the end of the bear market, the following signs should be expected:
==1==
The peak of a possible double curve
The price closes AND HOLDS above the previous bear price cycle. Having it hold a few days is key. If it jumps up, then falls right back down, that’s not a sign. That’s wish fulfillment. But, as you can see, we’ve held at this price long enough to possibly form our first double curve in quite some time.
==2==
A definitive bounce
After falling to complete the first double curve, the price bounces back up, it does NOT hold there. If it holds, be wary. If this bounce occurs below the start of the first double curve, that’s fine but it should occur above the trough. This is an indication the bulls are showing some strength.
==3==
The bear’s last stand
This is where the last of the struggling investors are shed from the market. IF this is the beginning of the end, look for the low point to land somewhere between $6k and $5k.
==4==
The bull is at the gate
The main thing to look for is A. the bottom is at—or above—the trough of the initial double curve and B. the top is at—or above the peak of the same double curve.
==FINAL SIGN==
Confirmation
The final sign is then, of course, the obvious bull price cycle as indicated in blue. In which case you’ll be in an excellent position, having bought at signs #3 & #4.
…Party time.
NOTES
Notice how the signs make a dip? This dip, when confirmed, will be identified by many analysts, after the fact, and used to predict the bull run that's already under way. Should this actually play out as described, congratulations. You can then thumb your nose at them and laugh all the way to the bank. (I don't recommend this b/c, whenever you're right about the market, it's only a matter of time before you're wrong again!)
It’s possible these dotted double curves could be shifted down to the $2950 mark. This is possible for two reasons: 1. a bull trap and a transition to a legit bull market are often indistinguishable and 2. dropping to the $3k mark would complete the classic cycles of a bubble, where the 3rd sign lands in the “despair” phase.
Should these signs actually play out in this scenario, I’ll keep this chart up to date.
