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US10Y Medium-term sellThe US10Y has confirmed the shift from bullish to long-term bearish as last week it broke below the Higher Lows Zone that has been holding since the August 07, 2020 bottom. The bounce however on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart) is something to keep an eye on, but for the moment that is viewed as a Lower Lows rebound within a Channel Down (right chart). The last Lower Highs were made at or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line on the right chart). Since the 4H RSI has just entered its Resistance Zone, it may be a good time to start selling the US10Y. The target is 1.1600, above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (as seen on the left chart). Most recent US10Y idea: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Ether2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
Gold Sell UpdateGood day guys! This is just an update in regards to the position that my team and I are currently holding. In my previous chart, I highlighted how the technicals would be looking to create a rising wedge before continuing to the downside. As of today, the markets are revealing just that. With over 1200 pips and counting, we are still looking for the markets to continue to sell off, because the US government needs the value of gold to be lower for the dollar to strengthen. I mentioned this in my latter post as well, I believe this is going to be the final push to the down side before gold takes off to unprecedented levels before bottoming out. Understand this, Jay Powell and the Fed has come out this previous week to try to calm the markets, but verbally stating, "this is unsustainable." He was referring to the money machines going rapid and inflation moving to higher levels. I believe a top is looking to form in the stock market. This is not financial advice, for I am not a financial advisor registered with he SEC. I do believe in transparency. Therefore, I have began shifting my portfolio to the emerging markets, gold miners, commodities, etc. However, I have learned not to bet against the fed, for they can print whatever and the markets loves debt. We do appreciate you for checking out our post and remember, we will see you on the other side. Rodrick (CEO) Third Eye Traders
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ThirdEyeTraders
2
Elliott Wave Analysis: TLT Has An Unfinished Five-Wave DeclineHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about TLT treasury bond in which we see very interesting development. We are observing a bigger A-B-C correction, where a five-wave decline within wave C looks to be unfinished. Currently we are tracking a three-wave A-B-C correction within wave 4) that can stop at the strong trendline connected from the highs, so watch out for another drop for wave (5) of C towards 130 support level before bulls show up. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ew-forecast
3
Copper breaking outTechnical Analysis As you can see in the chart, every red square is showing a consolidation period, followed by a strong rally. Today's action is showing strength as we are seeing a potential breakout, outside the 1-month consolidation period. Trade setup The light-blue arrows are potential measured moves. However, I would follow the 5sma or 10sma, as a stop-exit for 50% of your position. Fundamental Analysis There is some concern around inflation, all though the Fed maintains he believes it will be transitory. Here is the way I follow inflation, which is a free chart by the Federal Reserve Economic Data : fred.stlouisfed.org Another way is with the TIP etf.
AMEX:CPER
by dorfmanmaster
1
Rising Interest Rates Are ComingTightening monetary policies are coming. Throughout history, bond yields have been a clear telltale sign of rising interest rates. Throughout the last couple of months you can see bond yields have risen quite sharply. There is no alarm to be raised just yet on the health of the market, just an early indicator that Feds will start tightening monetary policies. I will be watching bond yields closely as the next indicator for market uncertainty would be the yield curve.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by WaisTrades
Aussie slips as retail sales slideThe Australian dollar is in negative territory for a second straight day. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7727, down 0.43% on the day. Australia's retail sales started off 2o21 on a decidedly sour note, as the January report came in at -1.1%, much worse than the street consensus of +0.6%. The decline is attributable to Covid restrictions, which had a negative impact on consumer spending. The Aussie is also feeling pressure from the geopolitical front, as a tense meeting in Alaska between senior US and Chinese officials is weighing on investors' risk appetite. Add to this mix higher US Treasury yields, and it's no surprise that the Australian dollar is headed for a disappointing end to the trading week. The Federal Reserve sent the markets a dovish message at its policy meeting on Wednesday, reiterating that it had no plans to raise interest rates before 2023. The US dollar dipped after the Fed meeting, but had little trouble erasing these losses. AUD/USD has posted considerable losses since Thursday's Fed meeting. The catalyst for the recent US dollar strength has been rising US yields, and investors were treated to another rise in yields on Thursday. The bond market has been edgy all week, and an outstanding manufacturing reading was enough to cause a strong selloff in US bonds. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index soared to 51.8 in February, up from 23.1 and its highest level in some 48 years. This signals higher input costs, and US yields took off in response. The US 10-year rose to 1.72%, while the 30-year rose to 2.47%, boosting the US currency.
by OANDA
Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks. A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week. Join in this great trade! TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mortdiggiddy
85
10 yr10 year bond yields approaching strong resistance here at the 200 weekly ema. I would be shocked if yields didn't reject from that level. The drop in yields should be taken well by the broader stock markets & crypto sectors as fast rising yields have been attached to rising inflation (at least that's the current narrative). The DXY is looking weak as well running into the trend resistance on daily chart & making a lower high. This looks like a good set up for the bullas.
TVC:US10YShort
by Big_Mike716
11
10-Year Notes Auction Result Is Pointing Toward Market StabilityTuesday's 3-year notes auction, Wednesday's 10-year notes auction, and Thursday's 30-year bond sale are 3 of the most closely watched auction that will be happening this week due to the recent focus on bond yields which have been a key driver of stock movements. We saw that on Tuesday, the $58 billion auction in 3-year notes was well-received, attracting demand that is well above average. This can be seen from the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, where we saw a ratio of 2.69 for Tuesday's auction, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40. This temporarily eased the fear of an uncontrollable rise of velocity in the surge of bond yields. I believe today's $38 billion auction in 10-year notes has helped to further calm such uncertainty. Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $38 billion in 10-year notes at a yield of 1.523%, with bidders seeking $2.38 for every $1 on offer from the government. This means that the bid-to-cover ratio stand at 2.38, which is nearly on par with last month's 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.37, but lower than the average taken from the last 10 previous 10-year notes auction ratio of 2.42. While this does not indicate above average demand like what happened yesterday with the 3-year notes auction, it does shows that today's auction has demand that is consistent with recent auctions. This is a good thing because one of the things that market participants are fearful for is unpredictability and instability caused by more weak auctions that are not within expectations like what we saw in late February's auction of 7-year notes where an unexpectedly weak auction caused the market to sell-off. As such, given today's average 3-year notes auction that was within expectations in combination with the lower than expected core CPI data that was released earlier today, the fear surrounding the bond market is temporarily put to a halt once again. Tomorrow's $24 billion sale of 30-year bond will be the last straw of the week that could potentially move the market significantly in either direction. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market because I believe that Treasury yields and the result of bond auctions will continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
2
Inflation Concerns Eases Amid Lower Than Expected Core CPI DataAmid rising concerns on inflation, today's release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February is among the most anticipated event of the month. The CPI acts as a gauge for inflation, where it measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. The CPI data vs Analysts' estimates is as follows, CPI: 0.4% vs Expected 0.4% CPI YoY: 1.7% vs Expected 1.7% Core CPI: 0.1% vs Expected 0.2% Core CPI YoY: 1.3% vs Expected 1.4% Note that Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy prices, while CPI is an all items index. Considering the above CPI data that is relatively tamed, we can expect the market's concern about a spike in inflation to be eased for the time being. We also saw the 10-year Treasury yields sliding lower, and an upward push in the stocks pre-market in reaction to a positive miss in the Core CPI data. As such, I expect the broader stock market to stay relatively green today, at least until the $58 billion auction in 10-year notes that will happen later today, which may provide further indication on where Treasury yields may be headed going forward. Thus, market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
Today's 3-Year Notes Auction Is Why The Stock Market ReboundedAfter experiencing a sharp spike in the 10-year Treasury yield last month due to an unexpectedly weak demand of a US$62 billion 7-year notes auction, today marked the start of a crucial bond auction week that will test the condition of the bond market. This week's schedule is as follows, Tuesday: $58 billion auction in 3-year notes Wednesday: $38 billion auction in 10-year notes Thursday: $24 billion sale of 30-year bond Following today's auction, the Treasury sold $58 billion in 3-year notes at an auction-high yield of 0.335%, with bidders seeking $2.69 for every $1 on offer from the government. According to the bid-to-cover ratio, which acts as an indicator of demand, the ratio stands at 2.69, which is stronger than both the 2.39 ratio we saw in February as well as the average ratio of 2.40, indicating that the bond auction was well-received compared to what was expected. As a result, lingering fear of an uncontrollable rise in velocity of the surge in Treasury yields was temporarily put to a halt today. This caused the 10-year Treasury yield to drop by 4.46% today, and resulted in a rebound in the U.S. stock market, with S&P 500 up by 1.42%, NASDAQ up by 3.69%, and DJIA up by 0.10%. I expect Treasury yields and the result of the aforementioned bond auctions to continue acting as an indicator of the general direction of the broader stock market throughout this week. Market participants in the stock market should continue paying close attention to the situation surrounding the bond market as it will help provide you with insights on what you can expect for the day's movement. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10Y
by AntrePoint
4
The Link Between Inflation, Rising Bond Yield, & Market Sell-offAggravated by Jerome Powell's speech at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, the tech-led sell-off continues, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall by 1.11%, S&P 500 by 1.34%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.11%. On that note, the 10-year Treasury yield also popped to 1.541% during Jerome Powell's speech, later closing at that level for the day. But how, specifically, did Jerome Powell cause the market to sell-off yesterday? Let's find out. Prior to Jerome Powell's speech, there were already a substantial amount of tension surrounding the bond market and concerns regarding inflation. A key event occurring recently that brought a great deal of attention to the acceleration of rising bond yields were the sudden spike in 10-year Treasury yield back in 2/25/21 from 1.38% to 1.54% - temporarily jumping as high as 1.6%, when an auction of US$62 billion 7-year notes was met with weak demand. This rattled the stock market because investors were not ready for the velocity of the 10-year Treasury yield surge. Instead, they were expecting for yields to gradually inch higher throughout the year. In an effort to pinpoint the exact reason for the surge, many conclusions were drawn. One of which relates to inflation concerns. Over the course of the pandemic, trillions in fiscal relief has been delivered, of which an addition $1.9 trillion in fiscal package is expected to come from the Biden Administration. With so much money printed and nowhere to flow yet due to economic lockdown as a result of the pandemic, investors fear that once the economy reopens again, pent-up demand will drive people to go on vacation and spend in masses, injecting all the printed money over the course of the pandemic into the economy all at once, driving inflation up at a rate that has not been seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Due to this belief of a looming inflation, it makes bond that are purchased currently potentially worthless because of possible subpar yield. As a result, people flock away from bonds at the moment because they are expecting that yields will rise going forward in order to compensate for inflation risk. Thus, yields are continuously being driven up. However, with the sudden spike in yield, it creates uncertainty around whether we will be seeing an acceleration of rising bond yields and possibly indicate that inflation could be around the corner. The possibility of this scenario is further amplified by vaccination efforts contributing to a recovering U.S. economy, and the incoming $1.9 trillion fiscal package that could further inflate the economy going forward while pushing the economy further into the recovery. Taking all of this into account, let's go back to Jerome Powell's speech. Having understood all of these, investors were looking at Jerome Powell to see whether he would give any indication on how he plan to control the acceleration of the rising bond yield, perhaps through an adjustment of the Fed's asset purchase program, where they will step up on the purchasing of long-term bonds to drive down long-term interest rates, or even extending the Supplementary Leverage Ratio that will be expiring on 3/31/21, so that banks can further help with the purchase of long-term bonds. However, in his speech, Jerome Powell said nothing of the sort, in which the market took as a signal that yields could rise further, triggering the sell-off even further, and driving the 10-year Treasury yield further up to a level that matches the initial 10-year Treasury yield spike back in 2/25/21. In fact, Jerome Powell made supposedly positive remarks stating that he expects the rise in inflation as the economy recovers to only be temporary, that he does not expect the move up in price to be long-lasting nor does he expect it to be enough to change the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, among others. With the market sell-off and surge in yield during his speech, it is clear that the market neither believes his words nor views it positively. To conclude, we are now in a very volatile situation where stocks no longer just goes up. We cannot control the direction of the market, but what we can control is how we deal with this situation emotionally and monetarily. Don't get too hung up on the short-term bearishness of the current market condition because if you zoom out your chart, in the grand scheme of things, this is just a tiny bleep. As such, if you believe that we will eventually recover from this market sell-off, use this as an opportunity to buy into your favorite companies at a huge discount. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10YEducation
by AntrePoint