USDJPY Structure Analysis – Liquidity Filled, Rejection + Target🧠 Overview:
This 2-hour chart of USDJPY highlights a clear bearish structure following a smart money-driven move. The price action reflects market maker behavior, liquidity manipulation, trendline rejections, and strategic zone targeting. Let's break down the key elements for today’s USDJPY analysis.
🔍 Key Technical Breakdown:
1. 🏦 Liquidity Grab & Fill (July 17th)
The marked green zone shows an aggressive liquidity sweep where the price dipped sharply into a previous demand zone, triggering stop losses and collecting institutional orders.
This movement represents a classic "liquidity fill", often engineered by market makers to trap retail buyers/sellers.
After sweeping liquidity, price quickly reversed upwards — a signal that large buy orders were triggered and filled.
2. 🎯 Central Zone as a Distribution Region
The market retraced to the "Central Zone", highlighted on the chart, which acted as a distribution area:
Price consolidated and created indecision before rejecting sharply again.
This zone reflects a short-term supply where institutional players may have offloaded positions.
Key clue: This consolidation occurred below the major trendline, increasing its strength as resistance.
3. 🔻 QFL Zones (Quasimodo Failure Levels)
Two QFL levels are marked, which denote structure breaks and retracements in MMC/SMC strategy:
First QFL marks a major support break – a signal of shifting market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Second QFL confirms continued lower lows formation – solidifying bearish market structure.
These levels are critical in identifying market intent and anticipating future moves.
4. 📉 Descending Trendline Rejection
The descending trendline drawn from recent highs is being respected continuously:
Price tested the trendline multiple times but failed to break above.
These rejections represent seller dominance and validate the trendline as a dynamic resistance.
A break above this line would invalidate the current bearish structure.
5. 🎯 Next Target – Major Demand Zone (145.00–145.20)
Price is heading toward a major demand zone marked in green around 145.000:
This area is a strong buy-side liquidity zone, where institutional buyers may show interest again.
If this zone is tapped, we may see either:
A bounce (bullish reaction), or
A breakdown and continuation lower if bearish momentum continues.
Traders should monitor this area closely for price action signals (engulfing candles, rejection wicks, or bullish divergence).
🧠 Strategic View:
Bias: Bearish, unless trendline breaks with strong volume.
Ideal Entry: Look for short entries on lower timeframe pullbacks into minor resistance (like trendline or last supply zone).
Target Area: 145.00 – ideal zone to book profits or switch bias.
Invalidation: A break and close above the descending trendline + central zone.
🔑 Confluences in This Analysis:
Concept Details
✅ Liquidity Grab Trap & Fill strategy at prior lows
✅ Central Zone Bearish distribution and rejection
✅ Trendline Repeated resistance rejections
✅ Structure Lower lows and QFL confirmations
✅ Target Area Clear next demand zone identified
⚠️ Risk Note:
As always, wait for confirmation before entering trades. The market may fake out near zones. Use proper risk management (1-2% risk per trade) and adjust your strategy as new candles form.
📌 Conclusion:
This chart paints a textbook scenario of how institutional movements and structure-based analysis (MMC/SMC) can offer high-probability setups. We expect further downside toward the 145.00 region before any significant reversal. Keep an eye on reaction from this demand zone for the next play.
