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TRYJPY

Right, I'm calling it! 😁💥Overview I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling. The Details 2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻 The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates hiking from 8.50% to 45.00% - and conventional monetary policy seems to have finally arrived😅 Erodgan seems more committed to tackling inflation and having central bank stability Things to consider I am not suggesting that Turkey is on the verge of a boom, though I am not ruling this out; inflation could be peaking, so the Lira may finally see strength. This will create an all-time high on the TRY charts. I suggest that the aggressive uptrend could be coming to an end, even if that means TRY pairs start ranging. The carry trade makes this an irresistible opportunity for me. I have been long TRYJPY since June 2023, which has resulted in generous daily swap payments💰
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
2
High Risk, Long Term Carry Trade! TRYJPY!This is my high risk, long term carry trade for 2023 (opened in 2022, looking to add to my position further). The swap rate is very attractive - to provide some insight, I have received a 3% account increase since opening my first long position in 2022, through daily interest receivables. The Fundamentals... Turkey has potential. Exports are climbing. The country needs more stability and greater global confidence - Turkey is greatly lacking both. I believe that the currency is so heavily short, that any sign of monetary policy change could cause the Lira to rocket. Potentially creating some large volatile upside moves. With the possibility of a global recession, the Lira could also see buying momentum, as emerging markets often perform well during times of international recession. Current Technical Reasons... Price is nearing all-time lows and daily horizontal support. TRYJPY is also testing bearish channel support area. Don't get me wrong, the Lira could fall much further - it has been in extreme decline for around 15 years! This is considered a high risk trade.
Long
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
TRYJPY Breaks ConsolidationUnfortunately the break happened on a Friday. Will be looking to enter this trade next week as I do not want to hold over the weekend in this type of macro environment. First of all in terms of market structure, we had an uptrend with defined and multiple swings. What we look for. Then we stopped making higher lows and began ranging. We thus have seen 2/3 ways of the only ways all markets move. This break of the support level was quite strong as indicated by the large red body candle. And, it broke a flip zone level too. We even got a lower bounce pattern which is another confluence. For next week, I would like to see a retest of the break which would then create a lower high we can work with. That is ideal. Target will be the flip zone at 18.50.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
TRYJPY Double Bottom FormingMaybe not the most popular trade idea given what is occurring with Turkey geopolitically, but a good set up nonetheless. Been in a downtrend with multiple waves, and we hit a support/flip zone which can be seen by going further back or on the daily chart. A double bottom indicates a possible exhaustion of the trend as no new lower lows have been made. I am looking here for a break and close above the 18.54 zone but perhaps 18.60 is better since we take out the previous lower high. 19.10 zone would be the target if we get the break.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Medium-term channel in sightThe Turkish Lira has been driven by a strong upside momentum against the Japanese Yen since the middle of August, and thus sending the currency pair to the weekly R2 at the 21.94 mark. As apparent on the chart, the pair is testing the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel near 22.10. Given that the exchange rate is being supported by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, it is expected that a breakout north occurs in the nearest future. However, if given channel holds, it is likely that a reversal south occurs soon. Important support level to look out is the 200-hour SMA, currently located at 21.05.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
TRYJPY: Big short opportunity.This pair has been trading on a very long term 1M Channel Down (RSI = 31.162, MACD = -4.539, Highs/Lows = -2.4883, B/BP = -6.1380) since December 2014. The 1W bullish sequence is approaching the 22.300 - 23.450 Resistance zone, which is a Lower High mark on the monthly Channel Down, hence the most optimal short entry. TP = 11.900. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Previous forecast at workThe previous forecast worked, and the TRY/JPY currency pair continued to trade in a short-term ascending channel. As apparent on the chart, the exchange rate is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs near the 19.80 mark. It is expected that the pair surges towards the resistance cluster formed by a combination of the weekly R3 and the monthly R2 in the 20.42/20.69 range. However, if above-mentioned moving averages do not hold, it is likely that the rate goes downwards to re-test the lower channel line in the 19.60/19.80 area.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Supported by 100-period SMAThe Turkish Lira has been appreciating against the Japanese Krone since the pair reversed from the 2017/2018 low at 15.63. This movement has been bounded in a medium-term ascending channel. As apparent on the chart, the exchange rate is testing the lower trend line at 18.48. Also, the pair is supported by the 100-period (4H) SMA at 18.27. From the theoretical point of view, the currency pair should make a reverse and go upside. Potential target could be the 19.20/19.40 range. However, if given channel does not hold, a breakout might occur in the nearest future, and the rate might aim for the weekly PP at 18.07.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Target set for 24.50The TRY/JPY exchange rate has been consolidating in the 22.6140/24.6060 range since the beginning of June. Its bottom boundary was tested last week. The Lira has since appreciated slightly and moved past the monthly S1. This up-move has allowed the rate to reach a medium-term channel. This pattern has remained intact, reinforced by the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs. However, it should also be noted that the pair has nevertheless remained trading along this channel. This shows that the Lira might be ready to surpass the given resistance cluster and target the upper range line at 24.6060. There is another important resistance level formed by the monthly PP and the 55-day SMA at 24.00 that could hinder the pair for a moment.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
The TRYJPY Weakens Further Last post: June 13th. See chart . Review: Price had bounced off resistance suggesting weakness back in the direction of the bear trend. Update: Price has continued to weaken but is a distance away from breaking and closing below the pivot support of May. Conclusion: Applying patience and waiting for price to clear support before placing further short trades. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
Short
by Sublime_Trading
2
Bears Coming in at Resistance on The TRYJPY?Last post: June 11th. See chart . Review: Price had pulled back to resistance forming a potential double top. Update: Price has bounced off resistance suggesting weakness but the double top is still to be confirmed. Conclusion: Continuing to stand aside and manage short positions until the pivot low of May is cleared. Compounds will then be added. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
Short
by Sublime_Trading
A Potential Double Top on The TRYJPY?Last post: June 2nd. See chart . Review: The bears had resumed control of the market from resistance but a break below pivot support was needed. Update: Price has pulled back to the same key resistance which we want to see hold strong and form a potential double top. Conclusion: A waiting game now as we let price dictate a clear trend direction. The odds are still very much with the bears. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
by Sublime_Trading
Resistance Holds Strong on The TRYJPYLast post: May 25th. See chart . Review: Price was continuing to weaken as the bears remained in control of the market. Update: Price pulled back to resistance and the bears are now back in control with good weakness towards the end of the week. Conclusion: A break and close below the draw-in pivot support is still required and ideally in the form of a bear flag. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
Short
by Sublime_Trading