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Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years. After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028. Targets: First target: Range of 28-29 Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
by MinimumWagerLvl1
5
USD/TRY Targeting above 20.0000 | Q2 Q3Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬: “We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.” “𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬.” “𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐨𝐧𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.” The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY. USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains: USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless. In the meantime, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟔% 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 (𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲). From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news. What to look for around TRY: The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet. Eminent issues on the back boiler: Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023. 𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬: So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level). 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟏𝟏.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - 𝟏𝟔.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION. - Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !! - The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH . - 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
9
Turkish Lira is far from recovery. This is just a quick look at the USDTRY pair. I'm evaluating the recent recovery of the Turkish Lira versus the dollar from about 8.5 TL per dollar to 7.3 TL. In my estimation, this recovery has not shown enough strength to continue. We can see that as soon as it touched the bottom of the drawn curve, RSI has reached the bottom of its parallel channel. That's as far as this recovery will go. In fact, I think the next five years will see the USD appreciate against the TL by 150%, which is exactly as much as it has appreciated during the past five years. This will take it all the way up to 18TL by February 2026. This signal I consider strong enough to predict a complete reversal of this trend is significant RSI divergence, i.e., a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. We have seen one instance of slight RSI divergence shown in the chart which has contributed to a recovery in August 2018 from 7.08 to 5.13 TL. That is 27.5% appreciation for the dollar. To imagine what a significant RSI divergence would look like, consider the most recent top on 2 Nov 2020. Look at the RSI level on that same day. We're looking for a higher top in price where RSI is significantly lower, ideally within the blue zone. That would be a strong signal for trend reversal. Another thing to notice is the blue zone and the ascending parallel channel. What's the meaning of the blue zone? When RSI climbs above it, the asset is said to be overbought. It means that price has went up too high too fast without enough real demand backing it up. However, that interpretation really depends on the parameter used. A better, easier and more reliable way to use RSI is to look for RSI divergence like I explained. That becomes even more relevant for this chart when you notice how RSI levels have been steadily climbing in the parallel channel shown. That means that the overbought zone becomes less and less significant as an indication. But it also means that TL recovery phases will be more and more volatile.
Long
by TechNerdOmar
TURKISH LIRATRY has been weakening against USD for a long time. Last week, Turkish Central Bank slashed its key interest rate to 18%, and the inflation in the country is more than 19%. From USDTRY log chart we can see the clear uptrend and the price movement is tightening forming a rising wedge. The ratio is climbing but with lower and lower momentum. RSI is also indicating to divergences. After breaking down from the pattern, the next support areas are marked in red zones. Also, the green support line that has been keeping the price up since 2014 is indicated.
Short
by lalayev