TSLA Earnings Play (Bearish Bias)
🚨 TSLA Earnings Play (Bearish Bias) 🚨
Earnings Date: July 23, 2025 (AMC)
🧠 Confidence: 75% Bearish | 🎯 Target Move: -10%
⸻
🔍 Key Takeaways:
• 📉 TTM Revenue Growth: -9.2% → EV demand weakness
• 🧾 Margins Under Pressure: Gross 17.7%, Operating 2.5%, Net 6.4%
• ❌ EPS Beat Rate: Only 25% in last 8 quarters
• 🐻 Options Flow: High put volume at $330 strike
• 🧊 Low Volume Drift: Trading above 20/50MA but losing steam
• 📉 Sector Macro: EV competition + cyclical headwinds
⸻
🧨 Earnings Trade Setup:
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 300,
"expiry": "2025-07-25",
"entry_price": 2.02,
"confidence": 75,
"profit_target": 6.06,
"stop_loss": 1.01,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"expected_move": 7.1,
"iv_rank": 0.75
}
⸻
🛠️ Trade Details:
Parameter Value
🎯 Strike Price $300 PUT
💰 Premium Paid $2.02
📅 Expiry Date 2025-07-25
🛑 Stop Loss $1.01
🚀 Profit Target $6.06
📏 Size 1 Contract
⏱ Entry Timing Pre-Earnings
📊 IV Rank 75%
🕒 Signal Time 7/23 @ 14:14 EDT
⸻
📈 Strategy Notes:
• 🧯 IV Crush Risk: Exit within 2 hours post-earnings
• 🎲 Risk/Reward: 1:3 setup | Max Loss: $202 | Max Gain: $606+
• 🧭 Volume Weakness & put/call skew signal downside
• 🧩 Macro + Tech + Flow Alignment = Tactical bearish play
⸻
🧠 “Not all dips are worth buying — this might be one to short.”
📢 Drop your thoughts — would you take the trade or fade it?
Tslashortsetup
TSLA WEEKLY CALL SETUP — 07/23/2025
🚀 TSLA WEEKLY CALL SETUP — 07/23/2025
📈 AI Consensus Signals 🔥 Bullish Move Incoming
⸻
🔍 SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT
5 AI Models (Grok, Gemini, Claude, Meta, DeepSeek) =
✅ MODERATE BULLISH BIAS
➡️ Why?
• ✅ RSI Momentum (Daily + Weekly = UP)
• ✅ Bullish VIX sentiment
• ⚠️ Weak volume + neutral options flow
• 🧠 No model signals bearish direction
⸻
🎯 TRADE IDEA — CALL OPTION PLAY
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "CALL",
"strike": 380,
"entry_price": 0.88,
"profit_target": 1.76,
"stop_loss": 0.44,
"expiry": "2025-07-25",
"confidence": 65%,
"entry_timing": "Open",
"size": 1 contract
}
⸻
📊 TRADE PLAN
🔹 🔸
🎯 Strike 380 CALL
💵 Entry Price 0.88
🎯 Target 1.76 (2× gain)
🛑 Stop Loss 0.44
📅 Expiry July 25, 2025
📈 Confidence 65%
⏰ Entry Market Open
⚠️ Risk High gamma / low time (2DTE)
⸻
📉 MODEL CONSENSUS
🧠 Grok – Bullish RSI, cautious due to volume
🧠 Gemini – Momentum confirmed, weekly strength
🧠 Claude – RSI + VIX = green light
🧠 Meta – 3 bullish signals, minor risk caution
🧠 DeepSeek – RSI + volatility favorable, careful on size
⸻
💬 Drop a 🟢 if you’re in
📈 Drop a ⚡ if you’re watching this flip
🚀 TSLA 380C looks primed if we break resistance near $376
#TSLA #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #WeeklySetup #AIPowered #MomentumTrade #TeslaTrade #GammaRisk #ZeroDTEReady
TSLA - GAME OVER!The 15 minutes of fame for TSLA & Elona is over! According to the chart.
Wave 3 up, with an Eiffel Tower ending pattern.
I got the top back in 2021 twice.
1st
2nd
I caught the break out in 2024
I caught the top again in 2024
I am getting the end now in 2025.
I am a macro guy so it won't be tomorrow but it's over.
Yes, there will be some buying opportunities on the way down. Ultimately the result will be the same.
GAME OVER!
$TSLA's $207.50 Price Target for a BounceIt's not looking too good for NASDAQ:TSLA holders right now. TSLA has 6 rejections off the yellow resistance line and has been dropping rapidly after the most recent rejection. The green trendline ($207.50) is a key support level on the way down, and there is likely to be a dead cat bounce there before further decline. For now, $207.50 is my short term price target for a bounce. I think NASDAQ:TSLA would be a bit oversold, so there is some potential for a long trade setup. However, TSLA is likely to underperform with its upcoming Jan. 24 earnings report. The forecast is higher than the previous forecast, which TSLA missed. I think there will be more pain ahead after a bounce off the green support line with some more downside in 2024.
TSLA SHORT NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA on the 4 hour chart appears to be in a downtrending parallel
channel and presently at the upper resistance boundary of
the channel. This could also be a megaphone pattern as the channel
is widening a bit as it descends. I see the horizontal resistance of February 2021
market high as resisting any breakout to higher prices.
I see horizontal support below at 190 from the market lows in March and May this year.
The MACD oscillator is in mid-range as is the RSI oscillator. The latter shows
some bearish divergence suggesting an impending reversal.
I see this as a short setup to synergize with the general market
the downturn from the current market price to 190 or until just before
the earnings report in mid-October. This is about $100 of profit
I will set a stop loss of $5 above the current market price Thid
is a great reward-to-risk ratio even if the price gets jammed up
at Fibonacci retracement levels on its way down. The low-costTR bearish ETF
is a consideration as are out of the money put options.
Tesla Fundamental, Technical and IdeasTSLA—Tesla Fundamental and Price Chart Analysis ( Concluding and comparing historical financial health, stability, growth and value of company to current and future projections to help make investment decisions. )
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
TSLA Fundamental Analysis
Income Statement
- Income, Earnings and profit margin for Tesla all increased over past 5 years
- Tesla reported higher than forecast earnings for company for the past 4 quarters
Balance Sheet
- Increasing Assets and liabilities with a shrinking Debt-Asset Ratio
Cash Flow ( Value of the Company is ALWAYS a reflection of FREE CASH FLOW )
- 2018-2019 Tesla free cash flow growth risen by 442.2%.
- 2019-2021 Telsa free cash flow growth is still increasing but by smaller percentages. Since 2019
Tesla free cash flow growth decreased by -455.04%.
- Trailing Twelve Month free cash flow for TSLA is nearly 70% higher than free cash flow ending year 2021.
Source: tradingview.com
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
TSLA Price Chart Analysis
Tesla decreased more than 50% in value since November 4, 2021 bringing the value of the company near 52 weeks low between 790.00 - 640.00 on Daily timeframe. Largest movements to downside are near Company Earning Announcements ( though Tesla has reported higher than expected earnings for 4 consecutive quarters, the growth rate between the both has been declining.
*Tesla is expected to announce lower than previously forecasted and actual earnings ( @ 1.81/per share ) and
revenue ( @ 16.5 billion ) report today July 20, 2022 during after market hours.*
Sub-chart indicators demonstrates indecision in direction of price with 750.00 being close to the highest price investors are currently willing to pay for stock. Near 790.00 is assumed to be safest and most profitable position to enter a short term sell entry.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Sentiment for TSLA:
-Short Term Bearish
- Mid Term Bullish
Entry and Exit Levels for TSLA:
-Short Term SELL - up to 2.5 months Holding period )
- Limit 790.00
- Stop Loss 900.00
- Take Profits 400.00
- Reward-Risk 3.50/1.00
Mid Term BUY - up to 5 month Holding period )
- Limit 500.00
- Stop Loss 400.00
- Take Profits 1000.00
- Reward-Risk 5.00/1.00
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
*Follow me to be notified when new trading ideas are posted, leave comments and/or messages for fundamental and technical analysis for any stock, currency, cryptocurrency, commodities and more.
*All information is to help educate and assist you in your investing/trading journey and doesn’t guarantee any favorable outcomes.
Tesla Follow-up with More Detail $550??I have doubled my short position as of today.
Earlier this week, I posted a rather stale chart of Tesla (lol). At any rate, here is what I see from a technical perspective:
Double Top
Lower Highs
Rising F-Flag (bearish)
The CEO out there meme-ing in real life.
It's a set up for a complete catastrophe in $TSLA stock.
I think $500 - $550 is probably.
God bless,
Chief