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Turningpoint

Sunworks correction/turnaround soon? ABC, potential to 2.70Sunworks suffered a lot already, and the stock almost in the graveyard. I am following it a while, was a nice short on the way down. Finally posted a tiny bit more positive earnings compared to expectation. Meanwhile a falling wedge formation created. Also moving in a big downward channel. There are two scenarios for counting the waves, one scenario suggests, that the wave 5 down could be finished (1.618 extension was put in a few days ago), and we are up for at least an A-B-C upside correction. Possibly (but not guaranteed) we just starting to put in the Wave "A", so far. Consodilation in a smaller channel happening, with one breakout to the top,which could fall back. Important thing in order to have this idea a basis, is not to put in a new low (0.7252), and not to stay below comfortably 0.78. If that happens, then I need to assume new lows are coming. It is possible, that this 0.78 level will be retested, I am following SUNW's actions now more closely. On the daily, RSI is started to come up a bit, trying to leave the oversold levels. MACD coming up, a little bit week still. The 9/15 SMA's starting to turn updwards, currently being a possible support. 21day EMA so far rejecting price actions, so we are squeezed in between those. 52day EMA/180 EMA, 200SMA coming down, 52 in a higher speed. On the weekly, 200 SMA up at around 3.92; it is far away (to be a resistance) Weekly RSI is on oversold levels (could drop more of course), trying to leave it, now showing sign of possible normalization, MACD indicator could start to converge (in a few weeks could be divergenced, but no guarantee) I have opened a long position( accumulation purposes), regardless of this idea. I plan to open an other one for swing-trading, IF we restest the 0.78 fib level and popping back up from that (meaning possible wave 3 starting to the upside, and wave 2 is in) Also be aware, as of now, the 1st quarter 2023 results,conference call and webcast was postponed, which might heavily influence the price actions (and sure it has a reason behind it.) Resistance at 0.92, next resistance at 1.12. No GAP below, next GAPs upwards:1.12; 1.62
SLong
by tommtajlor
34
The Best Odds within a Consolidated MarketEvery pattern of the market has precise areas where the probabilities can play in the most favorable way for you, if you trust the pattern (until it expires). Of course, we trust patterns... that's what we do: we drink and trust patterns . This example on the XRPUSDT pair is a good example of this. As a day trader (or a FTT trader), your hope here would be to catch a meaningful impulse, a long movement of the price that could give you profits. If you want that, where would you place your entry? The basic knowledge tells about "zones", but all zones are not equally safe and important in every pattern. For example, we know that the average zone in a consolidated market (the midrange between its resistance and support) is important... but is it safe? Let's think about it: By definition, an established market that goes sideways is bouncing between its resistance and support zones. It also tends to bounce against the midrange, of course (or, at least, it tends to struggle in that place); but normally you would expect the price to break the middle of the channel in order to reach its margins. Why? Because that's the very nature of the pattern! Duh! If the price surpass the midrange, the pattern stays vigorous, healthy and reliable. But what happens if the price exceeds markedly the channel's resistance or support? That would be an apparent or definitive breakout of such pattern... its closure: There's no trustable pattern anymore and you must be careful because your previous analysis now belongs to the past. This reflection is meant to warn you about one of the common mistakes we commit –perhaps because of the nature (a fault?) of our system or because of our unwise decisions–: Not waiting for the price to come up to the best spot for our entry. Not being selective enough when deciding the best settings of the market. In my series about trading psychology I expect to delve more into this attitude of not caring too much about our best chances, which is a way of not protecting our capital –although there is also a problem in caring too much , to the point of inertia–. But, for now, let's just reflect about the significant disadvantage of placing our bets into forecasts that objectively lack the best odds within a known pattern! Surely those are not the most educated bets we are capable of... and a profitable trader is person who makes educated bets.
Education
by adleriantrader
2
How To Pick Bottoms Without Getting Stinky Fingers!Another wild session, another opportunity to suggest that you learn how to use RSI to find turning points, and perhaps more importantly, stay away from the drops that keep on dropping. In this short video, I revisit the same concept from my past 2-3 posts, which is how to use Relative Strength (with the correct settings) to identify potential reversal points in your market of choice. The best markets for day trading being futures, of course! 🤑
CME_MINI:MESH2022
by RodCasilli
1
BTC key Fibonacci level, bounce or break?Recently Bitcoin broke out of a descending wedge (yellow dotted lines) to show a potential sign into a reversal uptrend. However, Bitcoin looks to be approaching some key resistance dancing around $43-45K. The current price is right around the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the drop back in May/June, but this also is the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the drop back in March 2020. There still is some promise that the price can break through the resistance here and head either upward or sideways, however, there are a few negative signs around the corner. First off, one can see a potential pattern of a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern that formed over the past few months and the current price action is nothing more than a retreat back to the neckline. Furthermore, the current price is prime to start a continuation of a downward trend into a descending channel (as shown by the dashed blue line with the bottom being the bottom of the wedge's yellow dotted line). This looks to potentially be supported by bearish hidden continuation divergence as found on both RSI and MACD (as seen by the blue dashed lines on the oscillators), however, I must note that MACD has crossed positively on the daily chart, which is an indication of a potential bullish trend forming. Either way, it looks like this is one of the key points for which direction the price may go in the next few months. If the price breaks above 45K and continues to head upward, then it might signal the next beginning of another bullish run (with potential sideways action until the bull run takes over). If however Bitcoin is rejected at the current prices, there are a few key points that I see to watch out: One is a rejection down to the top of the descending wedge to near 32-34K once again over the next week. Another key is a short term continuation into the bottom of the "newly forming descending channel" which could lead to a precipitous drop to near 27-28K (another key Fibonacci level) over the next weeks. Lastly, there is a possibility of a continuation downward, then sideways, then further down in the descending channel over the next few months to the next Fibonacci level to near 17-20K! It looks like there is no "sure deal" for which way prices may head, but at the very least at least the trend may be more solidified shortly over the next few days. And as always, this is in no way meant as financial advice and is solely my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or see anything further/differently.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
Down Friday + Down Monday: How to Spot a Major Turning PointFridays and Mondays are the most important trading days of the week. A lot of traders will rebalance their portfolios at the beginning or end of the week, and then simply hold through the week. These days also signal something about the news environment. A down Friday typically signals that traders fear bad news over the weekend, and a down Monday signals that bad news has actually materialized. In fact, Jeffrey Hirsch, author of The Stock Trader's Almanac and reigning king of stock market seasonality, argues that when a down Friday and down Monday occur together, it often signals a major stock market turning point-- occasionally a bottom, but more commonly a top: "For over 30 years, a down Friday followed by down Monday has frequently corresponded to important market inflection points that exhibit a clearly negative bias, often coinciding with market tops and, on a few climactic occasions, such as in October 2002, March 2009 and December 2018, near-major market bottoms. . . . Since 1995, there have been 248 occurrences of Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM), with 69 falling in the bear market years of 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011 and 2015, producing an average decline of 12.1%." Hirsch, Jeffrey A.. Stock Trader's Almanac 2020 (Almanac Investor Series) . Wiley. Kindle Edition. " (Hirsch, Jeffrey A.. Stock Trader's Almanac 2020 . Wiley. Kindle Edition.) I've illustrated this dynamic on the chart. Note that there are definitely a few false alarms, but the signal does tend to coincide with inflection points. For instance, most of the significant market downturns in 2019 either began or ended with a down-Friday + down-Monday signal. In March 2020, a down-Friday + down-Monday signal both began and ended the major market plunge associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. And when the market turned downward in September 2020, the down-Friday + down Monday signal twice preceded a bounce. So, beware, because this last weekend we had a down Friday + down Monday, so a correction may be coming in the near future. (In this case, I think the risk that traders are signaling is related to the possibility that Congressional negotiations for a new federal stimulus package might break down. We also had a major deterioration of jobs numbers last week.) This was a small downward move, and the size of the correction often corresponds to the size of the signal. So, probably don't rush to gamble on a 40% correction or anything crazy like that. But it might be a good time to own protection against, say, a 5% downward move.
TVC:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
37
EXY is at a critical turning point.EXY is at a critical turning point which will judge its course in the future. Looking at the data in the charts, it is obvious that the sellers are trying to lead the index to lower price levels. Starting from the analysis of the trend and its momentum, in the price chart on the left, there is a downtrend lately which has led to the break of the lower limits of the uptrend channel, creating two lower lows as well as two lower highs. Continuing the analysis with the averages, which follow the trend, it seems that a change in the direction followed by the prices is imminent. Specifically, the position of the green average, it is the one that indicates the type of the trend, and its attempt to go below the white average is an indication of an impending change in the direction of the price. Then the data from the MACD show a weak momentum, at the moment, which does not cease to be negative. Looking back at the chart, however, the MACD’s momentum was not as strong as now and the green average did not try to break the white in the previous attempt of the sellers to lead the EXY to lower levels. These data may lead to the conclusion that this may be the beginning of a downward trend in EUR Index prices. On the other hand, focusing on the data that arise from the analysis of support and resistance levels, there are some points of interest that need special attention to make any decision. At this point I should mention that some levels of Fibonacci Retracement and Expansion have been deliberately removed as well as several levels of support and resistance have been omitted to make the chart as clear as possible. In the findings of the analysis, it is obvious that the downward trend of prices stopped right at the confluence of the levels 100.0FE and 61.8FR as well as at the support level 119.00. Also, the fact that the fall was stopped at 61.8 FR, which is an important limit in the study of Fibonacci levels, testing it twice in recent times, it is concluded that the dynamics of sellers, at present, is not enough to push EXY to lower price levels than currently. Some very critical levels that are formed after the application of the Fibonacci tools as shown in the chart are the resistance levels 119.8 and 123.0 as well as the support levels 119.0 - 116.3 and 113.5. Considering the above findings, the conclusion is that the index is at a very important price level. A breakout of the 119.0 level could lead to a further drop to the 116.3 price level and then to 113.5. On the other hand, the possibility of prices breaking 119.8 may lead to higher price levels, initially up to 123.0, and in the end, the downward trend of the last period may be considered as a correction.
TVC:EXY
by UnknownUnicorn214400
2
XRP At A Crossroad & The Devil Wants To Deal Needs to break above .52 to begin a new uptrend. Breaking below .485 could send us towards .45 then .40. I even can see a case for a retest at .33-.34 in a worst case scenario. However, if 2017 taught anything is once XRP begins to climb a short strategy is a quick way to get rekt. The true short trade was weeks ago in the .70c region. Certainly there will be pull backs with volatile opportunities but in regards towards the macro trend I think the party is far from over. 2021 year of global change. Cash is trash. "They" said it not me.
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by MitchMilli
11
How to navigate any turn 2 steps ahead! Real Time examples!Live - Real Time - Trading examples of navigating the turn(s) - swings - in any market. (In this case: EURUSD & EURGBP) ======================================================================================================= The following *** Live Trading snapshot *** can be found in this Real Time Trading Post: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX EURUSD - 5 min.; 09-24-2020, 02:05 EST. Buy - LONG @Market; w.33 pip Trailing Stop. ====================================== EURUSD - LONG; Buy - LONG @Market; w.33 pip Trailing Stop. EURUSD - 5 min.; 09-24-2020, 02:05 EST. Most likely Price Action - for reference only. 35 mins. later 45 mins. later 60 mins. later 70 mins. later 95 mins. later 100 mins. later 120 mins. later ... and... 145 mins. later ... and here it is, the same market (EURUSD)... ... "many" minutes later. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX This Live (Real Time) Trading example (EURGBP) can also be found in the same post as the one above: The commens for this live (real time) example are included in the charts. ============ EURGBP ================== Entering LONG here: Then... ... and ... Then... ... and... ... and ... Then... BOOM!! ... and ... ... and finally:
Education
by Nemo_Confidat
FEAR index - VIX vs. SPYHello traders, we will try to implant a new point of view on the markets today. What if I told you that there is a tool that can find a bottom in the AMEX:SPY market? This tool exists and is called CBOE:VIX . If you compare these two graphs, you will easily see, that almost every extreme in the VIX market found the bottom in the SPY market. Yes, it's that simple. Try to implant this tool in your trading. You will appreciate that. 100% guaranteed. Good trading. FINEIGHT team
TVC:VIXLong
by Fineight