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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK - SUPPORT BROKEN: BULLS BEWARE FOR NOWToday, we saw the break and hold below of an important long term trendline in effect for months leading up to now, as well as several strong points of support. Rationale for short: - Break of lower bear flag channel trendline & hold - Successful retest and rejection of trendline. - Broken support at 206.80s and 206.00s - Huge bull rally immediately and decisively reversed to new lows. - Close below Friday, Tuesday Close prices - Small bear flag printed in closing hours today, visible on chart at close today. I am still short, and I have decided on a few important levels below us. Short 205.71 Target 1: 203.72 Target 2: Lower trendline in current short term descending channel as shown on chart Conditions: Price must always close (15min candles) below long term trendline we broke I expect the price to head a lower for now. The 15th could be a reversal point, historically the 15th is the start of the main "Santa Claus" rally in December.
AMEX:SPYShort
by buff22
CLEAR BREAKDOWN POINTS NEARBY, MARKET UNCERTAINTY AS OF TODAY This is the short term view. I will post the long term as well. The past four market days have seen a large increase in volatility, as the bears and bulls fight for control in this range. Today saw a large gap down, and a reasonable attempt to stay above yesterday's lows. These lows happen to be very strong resistance from all of last week as well. The price failed twice to hold these levels, yet stay just below them. A gap and hold above this 207.30 level would be very bullish, with implications of visiting Monday's open at the low 209 levels. This would be accelerated by the short squeeze this would cause. Gap below would help the case for a continued short. I'm short from Friday, waiting to see how this plays out. Good luck
AMEX:SPYShort
by buff22
1
UPDATE --- MADE A KILLING TODAY The Sentiment on 12/2 was 93% Bullish . As I noted: “In general it is never a good idea to Buy on High Sentiment.” We have seen that every extreme cluster of Low Dorsey Sentiment have been ideal time to Buy zones. However, it is little recognized that “High Sentiment and Low sentiment are materially different in that they represent different aspects of the Emotional Market Brain.” The 5% Bullish on Thursday has been followed by 2% Bullish today after yesterdays’ dramatic declines. Stocks are trying to recover this morning and that may continue to some extent. However if the market remains relatively weak and there is low Sentiment on Monday, it could register a MEMBERS ONLY [/b Negative Sentiment Cluster and fit with the profile for declines into MEMBERS ONLY [/b time zone. However, given that the Price High and Key Reversal from the 93% is only, MEMBERS ONLY [/b,” the best profile resolution is for generic weakness to persist into MEMBERS ONLY [/b . There is overt and obvious support down to the MEMBERS ONLY level. Thus it may yet turn out that this profiled hiccup is still just more Range Trading. The interesting idea that I provide is that there are short term profiles within the longer time frames that most investors are focused on and/or seduced by. There are high probabilities profiles that don’t require long winded cognitive rationales. I had surmised that the “Seasonals would NOT be typical this year.” After this downside surprise, there is due to be an MEMBERS ONLY and then perhaps another MEMBERS ONLY [/b into year end. Let’s take it one trade at a time. I repeat: “Thus, this is not the time for Big Bets and Out-sized trading positions.” .Don't be on the wrong side!!!! click on the link below to see what Woody Dorsey has to say and if you want more information This link will provide a free report www.sentimenttiming.com
FX:SPX500Short
by sentimenttimingnewsletter
Sentiment Timing - DEC/4/2015 - THIS DROP WAS COMING The Sentiment on 12/2 was 93% Bullish. As I noted: “In general it is never a good idea to Buy on High Sentiment.” We have seen that every extreme cluster of Low Dorsey Sentiment have been ideal time to Buy zones. However, it is little recognized that “High Sentiment and Low sentiment are materially different in that they represent different aspects of the Emotional Market Brain.” The 5% Bullish on Thursday has been followed by 2% Bullish today after yesterdays’ dramatic declines. Stocks are trying to recover this morning and that may continue to some extent. However if the market remains relatively weak and there is low Sentiment on Monday, it could register a MEMBERS ONLY Negative Sentiment Cluster and fit with the profile for declines into MEMBERS ONLY time zone. However, given that the Price High and Key Reversal from the 93% is only, “ MEMBERS ONLY ,” the best profile resolution is for generic weakness to persist into MEMBERS ONLY . There is overt and obvious support down to the MEMBERS ONLY level. Thus it may yet turn out that this profiled hiccup is still just more Range Trading. The interesting idea that I provide is that there are short term profiles within the longer time frames that most investors are focused on and/or seduced by. There are high probabilities profiles that don’t require long winded cognitive rationales. I had surmised that the “Seasonals would NOT be typical this year.” After this downside surprise, there is due to be an MEMBERS ONLY and then perhaps another MEMBERS ONLY into year end. Let’s take it one trade at a time. I repeat: “Thus, this is not the time for Big Bets and Out-sized trading positions.” .Don't be on the wrong side!!!! click on the link below to see what Woody Dorsey has to say and if you want more information www.sentimenttiming.com
FX:SPX500Short
by sentimenttimingnewsletter
1