Ub — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Bonds: 10-12% further downside?Based on the TLT pattern shown here, bonds may have much further below to go. They've continued to steadily sell off as rates have continued climbing, and show no signs of a long-term bounce. Target 1 has been breached, leaving target 2 in the crosshairs: $86-87.

Update on long duration bonds Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion, the drop over the last two days was caused mainly by Pelosi visiting Taiwan and bonds getting overbought on lower timeframes. The 30y yields were rejected at the monthly pivot, while the 10y yields bounced at support and were denied at resistance. Yields are still in a short-term bearish trend, and there is no confirmation of a reversal yet, although the trend might have changed. It all depends on the situation between China and the US, as the more the tensions between those countries increase, the higher inflation will be, and therefore the higher rates will be. If China starts aggressively selling US bonds, this could create chaos in the funding markets. If the US starts banning Chinese imports or exports, the US bond market could explode, and yields go to the moon. This would force the Fed to step in and do unlimited QE / yield curve control. Essentially we are stuck in a scenario of mutually assured destruction here, and there is no way either one will come out as a winner in the short term. I believe that we are in a deflationary/disinflationary period, which could be disturbed at any moment if China invades Taiwan. The Russia/Ukraine war pushed inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to start slowing down, and a China/Taiwan war could push inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to slow down. TLT could quickly reach 125-135 in the next few months. However, I don't believe bond yields are going negative soon. It will be challenging for the market to have negative nominal yields when inflation is so high and at a time when the Fed might be forced to intervene and do YCC.

Short Bonds - why, and market review Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI. You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red. So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points. Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people. I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in. My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting. If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend. The orange arrows are a measure of volatility. Six hour chart.

Bond yields keep falling Bonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and governments are benefiting from the situation, but this is also a fragile situation. Although the current conditions benefit some stocks and risk assets due to the highly negative real rates, this doesn't mean that everything is perfect. Personally I believe equities haven't topped and they have much more room to grow from here, but I also think a big correction isn't far away (10-20%). In my opinion bond bulls are in control (bearish on yield) and yields could fall even lower.

Are the bond bulls in control or is it time for a break?Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have extremely high inflation yet and I don't think we will have the good type of inflation because things are going well. I do expect Oil to go higher and that to cause all sorts of issues and higher prices, but other than that I don't think bonds will get crushed. At least no yet. The key question for the whole reflation trade is... WIll bonds and USD keep going higher, with only US behemoths rallying or and the rest bleeding or struggling, or could we get a larger shock? Because to me if the USD really breaks out and heads for 96 on the DXY, while bonds also rally... we will eventually see something break. I think we'll soon have a better idea of where things could be heading next so it is better to be patient and take a few select trades that go well with this environment and look technically sound.

Bond Futures Rallying. Short equities into next week.Bond futures are rallying further this morning. It started yesterday and they are only accelerating. It's hard for me to believe that this acceleration is from the fed again. It is either old bitcoin investors that were scared away, or the investment funds are parkling their money somewhere "safe" for a few weeks until the fed speaks on June 15th. Something to keep an eye on.

Are bonds ready for a bounce?Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support, swept the lows before the big move up and are no showing signs of life. When I see so much debt, when I see slow growth and all the bad things going on around us... I don't think we'll get huge inflation any time soon. To me this is cyclical inflation after a supply shock rather than anything else. Many other yields are decreasing and spreads are the tightest they've been in years, so why would bonds go much lower? The Fed has failed to meet its inflation target for years, but they are going to make it now? We are also post the SLR cliff that could had been the 'sell the rumour buy the news event'

UB vs SPY The US Treasury Bond futures are forming another large wedge. You can see what happened after the last large bond wedge formed and broke its resistance upward. Also notice how the second valley is occurring at a new, long awaited, all time high. The bond wedge in Oct 2019 formed its 2nd trough as the SPY was breaking a long awaited new all time high too. I am estimating that this scenario plays out again. It took about 2-3 months for the UB to break out of its wedge in Jan 2020. One month later, the SPY sold off . The wedge this time looks to be about 3 times as large which leaves us with the market climbing through the rest of the year with the large sell off coming in the first quarter of 2021. This is just my opinion, not trading advice.