$DIDI - The Demise of an IPO (Qualitative Judgement)The current news and development suggest that DIDI will continue to go down.
1. The growth expectation is shattered by delisting the app.
2. The company has a lot of debt, just like any tech companies.
3. Earning growth will be slumpped until they figure out how to get past the hurddles.
THE MOST IMPORTANT
4. Management's dishonesty was well documented with the listing process.
My current valuation is, This will be a $1 stock soon. With a huge law suit to bear on the backbone, which they will definetely lose. (Clearly documented)
The CEO's dishonesty and importance of personal gain rather than the investor's interest (not adding value to the company) is a big big big turn off for me.
2 Things must be noticed or tracked.
Let the law suit settle, Unless you see a huge retained earnings that can compensate for the law suit.
Want to see the CEO change, or atleast change his attitude and increase his holding by 20% (He just got paid $3,000,000,000 from the IPO). 20% is a conservative number.
There are other great options for the money.
$POSH will be something I have to evaluate net week.
IF YOU TAKE THE POSITION, YOU HAVE TO EVALUATE THE QUALITATIVE NATURE EVERY WEEK
Ucsgears
Long term - China $BABA, $BIDU, $TAL, $EDURecently we have been seeing a constant selling pressure from Chinese stocks. These are generating some long term opportunity. Very large MOAT here, with very high uncertainity in the market.
Do focus on the price move and adjust the projected pattern accordingly.
Some might pick $EDU against $TAL due to their cash position. $TAL has a industry advantage being the leader in the education sector, so I favor $TAL, with their small investments and large bond sale last year, there is very little risk of further earning dilution in 2021 (constant 3% max). Next Earning Report is Huge.
$BABA - DAMN the enterprise value, My model shows to justify the enterprise value $BABA is currently trading, we should have a growth rate decline from 46% to 8% and the interest rate for 20 Yr bond to go up 42 - 60%, with EPS of $10 in 2021, 2022. Is that likely? I would argue not all of them will happen.
Therefore, I want to wait for the selling frenzy to be over to take a sizeable position here (Leverage - Go big or go home).
$BIDU - The least favoritefor me at this point. If I have to get really interested in Bidu the share better drop another 20%. I am not too keen here.
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This is similar to my 2017 Eurusd Post. FXE play. The reversal is so evident that could really be worth.
Trades - Short term ($HES, $WYNN, $RCL - $IWM market outlook)I give up, trading privately sucks, I want to display my artistic talent and the trade along with it.
Its better personally for me to share my ideas, I am a lot more disciplined and focused that way. All I have is 24 hours, Damn.
Other binary option position I have from last week, $ADSK short, $NFLX short. From 2 weeks, $CVS long, $CAT long. Others are played out or expiring soon. So, no use revealing.
Will try to keep this habit of issuing new stock picks from my scan like the Covid peak times.
New Trend (Directional Bias)I have developed to Simply your lifeNotice is the difference between the other trend indicators available in the market vs the new and improved directional bias indicator. I have prepared to help my friends in this community.
It keeps you in the trade when you have to, not exit you out when there is a short pull back. However, when the pullback is not a fake one, It pulls you out.
FEEDBACK PLS.
I miss this stuff.
Market Pairs TradingHow to play this divergence in corporate bonds vs market. The best way I think of is Pair em up.
1. Buy QQQ and Sell HYG
2. Buy SPY and Sell JNK
They will have to converge and even out.
$TLT - Watching 166 break. Watching for a break about 166. The profit potential with Low IV is sweet. You can just go outright and buy a call.
IVP - 10%, shows how no one wants to decapitate the risk here. The market is expecting no risk in Bonds. Is it true?
$LULU - Earnings on the 8th AMCSELL -1 IRON CONDOR LULU 100 (Weeklys) 11 SEP 20 387.5/397.5/387.5/377.5 CALL/PUT @9.20 LMT
Try to build it yourself. And keep the Risk less than $100.
For every $80 Risk. You have a potential to make to $150 (Realistic targets).
Another earning trade. Betting this wont have a severe move.
The Perfect IRC
$CVS - setting up nicely for an explosive move. Squeezing here.
1. IVP - 11%
2. IV - 29%
The breakout can be significant.
The options are a bit manipulated. So, build your position accordingly.
Buy the Volatility here. Spreads such as Back Ratio Spread, Buying Iron Condor / Iron Fly.
Below is an example.
For less experienced trader
BUY +1 IRON CONDOR CVS 100 (Weeklys) 11 SEP 20 65.5/69.5/65.5/61.5 CALL/PUT @2.50 LMT
For an experienced trader
BUY +1 1/1/-1 CUSTOM CVS 100 (Weeklys) 11 SEP 20/11 SEP 20/11 SEP 20 65/65/61 CALL/PUT/PUT @3.20 LMT
Both are done for a debit. Strictly close 1 week prior to expiration.
The risk is, This stock can squeeze for a month. However I feel like this will explode in 2 weeks.
Time to Go Long Gold AGAIN $GLD $NEM $WPMGDX and WPM are tracking close to each other.
NEM however is weaker.
So, I am hoping to build a position for a Long trade AGAIN in the Pullback. This time it will be for a longer duration.
$EWZ is coiled up as well. This is a commodity (oil) and Bank (XLF) driven etf. Although its Brazil, and their Covid Scenario is not good.
Build the position similar to BABA.
If you want me to check your position and explain. Post a response. I will let you know how you can tweek it.
$TWLO - coiled up and readyOK.
This can be another $BABA Trade. Has all the signs for it.
The smartest move here is to take the trade - non directional bias. Follow how I constructed $BABA
IVP is 30%, but the HVP is 40% - Comparing them both, we can expect both to converge. That would mean, Either it consolidates for 1 full month (like the GDX trades I posted) or it moves like BABA.
Many ways to trade this scenario, You can choose one and try to manage the trade.
$BYND - Best Iron Condor SELL -1 IRON CONDOR BYND 100 (Weeklys) 7 AUG 20 130/140/130/120 CALL/PUT @8.32 LMT
In this case I want to sell the Iron Condor.
1. IVP - 47%
2. IV earnings is - 158%
3. Normal IV - 70-80%
4. R/R = $173 Risk to $322 Reward
Trade done for a hefty $832 credit, on a $1000 wide contract.
ALL you need is tomorrow this should open between 120 - 140. If it doesn't you lose $173. If it does, you are profitable and leg out.
This is the only scenario I like selling Iron Condor.
$IBM - Earning Strategy - IntroductionWorking on a new Strategy to take advantage of earnings. This is how its structured to play.
Knowing your risk and keeping your expectations low gives you a sizable profit.
GET OUT OF CONVENTIONAL THINKING of Iron Condors and Iron Butterfly prior to earnings. The whole world thinks that is the edge.
Now, try to do yourself a trade on $UAA $CHTR $XOM $SHAK
An Option Lesson on $YY$YY - If You are not disciplined, Guaranteed Loser market.
1. Options Liquidity
2. MM manipulating Options Market
3. Staying in the trader and TAKING HEAT.
The story is 07/09 I entered a debit spread as it checked out all my criteria for UCS#1 Long Trade.
$2 Wide Spread for $0.95 (Thanks to Skew)
On 7/16 - The Short side lost 75% of its credit, so Closed it effectively bringing my Long trade risk down by 60%
Left the Long side to close on a bounce.
On 07/21 - The Long side ran higher Closing the net trade for 80% winner.
The lesson is. For my trading mindset Its worth to establish the position and leg out (or not) or add smaller risks on the troubling candidates. (In case of YY, due to liquidity I couldnt manage it at all, so Legging out was the best options).
For any options trader, You have to understand your mindset which will define your profitability.
Today I bring you Sectors $XRT $XLF $XME $IWMXRT - Retail Sector (Non Market Cap Weighted)
XLF - Financial Sector (Market Cap Weighted)
XME - Mining Index (Non Market Cap Weighted - US Miners only)
IWM - Small Cap (Non Tech Giants)
First The critical levels shown on Right Charts are something to be very mindful off.
The Product must hold support for the SPX to move higher. But a Crash in the SPX market wont happen without Russell 2000, QQQ will have to lead the market to a crash. Not happening at this point, I boycott trading short side on QQQ.
These products are Ready to Pop.
I personnally think they are going to breakout and fade back.
For someone who want to make money on this. Build a Spread (OTM), ensure that the IV is in your favor.
In a Nutshell, My analysis is - XLF, XRT, XME all going up, while the QQQ walk down a few steps,
SPX and IWM may have a slight p/b (UCS#2 Long Entry) and then run higher with QQQ.
A Crash right now, although would be great for my account. Is highly unlikely.
$BABA - UCS-RSG setting up beautifully. BUY +1 IRON CONDOR BABA 100 (Weeklys) 10 JUL 20 220/225/210/205 CALL/PUT @2.47 LMT
Lets look at the R/R
1. BABA is smack at 215 - You lose about $250 max - Risk mitigation close it 4 days before the trade mature.
2. BABA moves past 223 - You are profitable on the Long Side
3. BABA moves past 207 - You are profitable on the short side
Max Profit - $250
Max Loss - $250
Probability estimated - 50%
All RSG does it there is a pop coming.
$KR - Breaking out to new 1 Yr High. Not All Time thoughThe levels to watch for in KR.
34.50 is a heavy resistance, technically. So a pullback to $32.00 is still highly probable after a break below 33.80.
A break above 34.50 is a quick rally up to the next level. Then it will coil up for a while and get smack down really hard, if the momentum doesnt build.
$LUV - Squeeze Trigger soon? I am biased to the short side. But another long side break may not have a big run up, the squeeze defines there is no resistance to the top.
$CHTR $MMM $CAT $DKNG $ROST $LULU - Long provided SPX holds.
If the SPX can hold the trendline. Enter on trigger.
All trades are Long Setup.
