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Ukeconomy

UK HOUSE PRICES: RELENTLESS UPTRENDIn January 2025, the latest figures reveal that UK house prices have risen by 0.7%, pushing the average price to a staggering £299,238, a new all-time high. For the mainstream media, the narrative of an impending house price crash has been a constant refrain over the past two years, fueled by the belief that prolonged high interest rates would spell disaster for the housing market. Indeed, these elevated interest rates have significantly hindered the natural upward trajectory of house prices, which typically rise in response to inflation, a growing population, and a persistent shortage of new housing construction. The current stagnation in UK house prices resembles a pressure cooker, building up energy that is bound to release in a dramatic surge. The government’s ongoing strategy of printing money to appease voters will inevitably flow into asset prices, leading to inflation in these markets, much like the consumer price inflation we’ve already witnessed. The government finds itself in a bind, compelled to continue this money printing to meet the electorate's demands for free money and to manage an ever-growing debt burden. As the debt increases, so does the need for borrowing to service it. This cycle makes it increasingly challenging for the UK to lower long-term borrowing rates, especially compared to the US, which still holds sway over the global financial landscape. UK house prices are gradually regaining momentum following the fallout from the Liz Truss debacle, a situation she seems to remain blissfully unaware of, despite the havoc her brief six-week tenure as Prime Minister wreaked on the British economy. The financial landscape was nearly sent tumbling into chaos, prompting the Bank of England to step in with an unprecedented commitment to purchase UK Government Bonds. The economy is so fragile that the UK is now compelled to invest in US government bonds to shore up its financial system against the spectre of another crisis reminiscent of the Truss era under Labour. We were perilously close to a financial meltdown! Currently, UK house prices are inching towards a potential increase of around 10% per year, indicating a modest upward trend rather than a frenzied housing boom, while also avoiding the catastrophic price drop that the media seems to obsess over. Ultimately, average house prices in the UK are set to rise, irrespective of government actions or economic conditions. Therefore, those considering the purchase of a standalone house should act without hesitation, as flats and new builds present more complicated challenges—flats can become a logistical nightmare, and new developments might be situated in flood-prone areas, among other concerns.
ECONOMICS:GBAHPLong
by BallaJi
Roaring 20's #FTSE100 to meaningfully outperform UK HOUSINGA BOLD prediction --- possibly to some people But I stand by this chart as a roadmap where I see #UK equities outperforming against the cash cow that has been UK #Housing The how's and what's and why's are unimportant But the key thing is for younger people struggling to get into UK housing Investing in #Stocks #Technology Innovation #AI and #crypto will reap HUGE dividends these next few years I have talked about the roaring 20's echo mania bubble before but as we see stocks indicies around the world breaking it only confirms my thesis!
TVC:UKXLong
by BallaJi
$FTSE (UK100) Is Targeting All Time High As Bullish TargetTraders and Investors, FTSE is one of the best resilient indices which had one of the lowest impacts in last few months as compared to bearish US indies. Now last couple of weeks it has been making its move upwards which can set its trajectory to retest the previous high one more time. This can happen if the trend line and that FIB level is cleared. This is looking increasingly bullish now. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
ULong
by vikinsa
1
CINE - Cineworld due for a bounce from these levelsI've been accumulating this stock since the 60s slowly and now I believe it's at the point where it is due for a good bounce. It has just broken SMA100 level which was acting as resistance previously. Currently, SP is trading above SMA 10, SMA20 , SMA50 and SMA100 MACD indicator going positive Money flow going green too. Also, momentum has gone above 10 All these indicators are extremely bullish and overall it's breaking out of a falling wedge pattern. From a Financial perspective - Cine World had 698million profits which dropped to -529million GBP in 2020 pandemic levels. I am anticipating a good recovery towards the Christmas run-up as there is a backlog of many movies which were not released during the pandemic which should help reduce financial losses of 2020 as economic activity opens up and people start going to cinemas more. The support level which needs to be held is SMA100 which was previously acting as resistance @ 75.20 The next resistance which was rejected today is @ 80.49
CLong
by ghostinvoid
Last week outcome and current market statement ISM Manufacturing Index report announced on Tuesday was the main event last week. Recall, the Index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points (below 50 means decrease inactivity). As a result, the dollar has undergone the most massive one-day sales over the last month. However, the sale did not receive further development. The markets were waiting for the statistics on the NFP (unemployment fell to 3.5%, which is a record low for the past few decades. NFP figures are close enough to the forecasts and market expectations. Nevertheless, the dynamics can be traced more clearly (downward trend). So after Friday’s data to come out, the Fed has untied its hands to reduce rates in October (currently the markets estimate the probability at 76%). We also note that lower wage growth is also another enable signal to lower the interest rate. So, our position as for the dollar has not changed, but rather strengthened. We will continue to look for points for its sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Moreover, the US has not only economic but also political problems. The beginning of the impeachment procedure, regardless of its outcomes, is a negative signal for the US dollar. As for the upcoming week, it will be relatively calm on Wednesday, the markets will look through the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, on Thursday data on the UK economy (GDP, industrial production), as well as inflation in the USA, on Friday, attention will be focused on statistics on the Canadian labour market, as well as consumer sentiment in the USA. Of our other preferences, we note the purchase of gold, as well as the Japanese yen. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the 4th quarter in the last 10 years is the most unfortunate period for the Japanese yen. So do not forget about the stops and control the volume of entry. In the oil market last week, everything was following our forecasts. Goal 51.20 has been achieved. After that, the bears recorded profits on Friday. It is still difficult to say whether this fixation will turn into a full-fledged correction. So we will spend the beginning of the week neutral regarding oil - we will observe how events will develop and we will monitor the news background.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Central Bank Week Results, OECD Forecasts and Pound GrowthFollowing the Fed, the Banks of Japan, Switzerland and England announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policies. They keep interest rate steady. Accordingly, there were no large movements in the pound, yen and franc parities. Although it is worth noting some strengthening of the yen following the Bank of Japan decision. Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) noted that the Central Bank supports the expansion of monetary incentives. So the global trend towards easing monetary policies may continue. Based on the results, our trading recommendations are unchanged. We will continue to sell the dollar primarily against the yen and the British pound. We will also sell the euro against the yen. As for the pound, its fate will depend entirely on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. We are still looking for a positive outcome, therefore, recommend buying the British pound. Moreover, yesterday the pound against the dollar rose to the highest levels since July 2019. This happened after the comments of the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker appeared that the Brexit deal could well be concluded before October 31. in the light Gold purchases continue to be relevant. Concern among investors yesterday updated OECD forecasts on the world economic growth rates were added. The organization lowered its estimates to 2.9% from 3.2%. OECD also warned that exit without a deal would provoke a recession in the UK economy. Speaking of the UK economy. Retail sales came out worse than expected -0.2% m/m (forecast was 0%). But once again we emphasize that the fate of the pound is now decided not by economic data, but by Brexit. Yesterday, data on the real estate market in the United States was published and again the data significantly exceeded experts' forecasts: sales of existing homes in August increased by + 1.3% m/m (forecast was -0.7%).
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
Taylor Wimpey - More down likelySELL - TAYLOR WIMPEY (TW.) Taylor Wimpey plc is a residential developer. The Company operates at a local level from 24 regional businesses across the United Kingdom, and it has operations in Spain. Fundamentals Brexit uncertainties continue to undermine the performance of certain UK housebuilders. The ongoing political threat is sending shares in Taylor Wimpey lower. The latest set of results showed that first half operating profits were down 9.4%, which reflects higher build costs and tougher standards. House prices are stagnating, particularly in London and the South East where Taylor Wimpey are significantly exposed. Tougher times potentially remain ahead. Best Broker Target Price: 200p (Berenberg Bank 05/03/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 140p (Peel Hunt 10/12/2018) Technical Analysis Taylor Wimpey has been unable to reach the heights it saw in the aftermath of the Brexit result in 2017 and since then has traded in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The break of support seen this week at 153.8p suggest we are going to see a continuation lower in the short term. The immediate downside target is at the December 2018 lows of 128p, then below that we are targeting the Brexit vote lows of 110p. Recommendation: Sell between 140-160p Stop: 180p Target: 128p & 110p
LSE:TW.Short
by Investamate
EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHSEnd of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year. 2. Given the articles attached, this week was also the first week where risk-on/ risk-off positive correlations broke down and went back to some degree of normalcy, with Gold, Yen and bonds ending the week down some 5 - although the TRY Military Coup did cause some risk anxiety late on friday and caused safe havens to par some of their losses by 1% to close down apprx 4%. 3. Drivers of the risk-on rally i must say did come as a surprise, given the relatively subdued economic climate post brexit, with little planned risk-on drivers in sight. However, it was JPY's surprise talk from PM Abe/ BOJ Kuroda easing/ stimulus speculations at the start of the week (speculations around y10-20trn) that gave risk markets some legs - despite the reliability of the claims being denied by much of the JPY Govt though there certainly is no smoke without fire. 4. The other winner of the week was USD , much of which was safe haven demand on Friday (TRY Coup) but $ strength had built through the week on the back of hawkish FOMC speak sentiment (see attached) and risk markets rallying, causing rates to also rally (UST 10y averaging +4-5%) where all have contributed to increased market confidence which has translated into higher projected rate hike probabilities for their Sept/ Nov/ Dec meetings - currently at 12.9%/14.4%/38%, which is pretty much a 100% increase in expectations on the week. - Once risk got going, given the severe depression, it was unsurprising that it did manage to run away higher - as safe havens needed a correction higher, if only in the short term. Next week Projections: 1. Given last week, and most of friday, the obvious expectation would be to expect risk to continue on the offer and making new highs - however, late on friday afternoon we saw risk-on/risk-off balance tip in favour of safe havens as the TRY Coup uncertainty increased risk-off demand. - Friday traditionally is a weak day for risk anyway as 1) end of week sellers/ weekend flat risk books cause a natural selling of risk, and a natural buying of safe havens as portfolios look to hedge weekend event risk over the two days that the markets are closed (especially as the session ended i the middle of the TRY coup). - That in mind, i was surprised to see risk even trading better than safe havens on mid afternoon Friday at all (until TRY) - with Yen falling to 106.3 and goldd down 0.9%, i was confident that we would enter Monday with a risk-on tone.
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
2