Unilever (ULVR) Intrinsic Value - DCF ModelUnilever DCF Assumptions:
Tax Rate = 23.5%
Discount Rate = 4.9%
Perpetual Growth Rate = 1.5%
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
Transaction Date = 01/04/2022
Fiscal Year-End = 31/12/2022
Current Price = 41.92
Shares Outstanding = 2,610
Debt = 29,672
Cash = 4,495
Capex = 1,340
Base Case Scenario
In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 5%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 3%. These assumptions are lower than analysts’ forecasts.
DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = €12,873
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €160,909
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value = €162,651
Plus: Cash = €4,495
Less: Debt = €29,672
Equity Value = €137,474
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = €52.68 / £44.25
DCF (5Y) PERPETUAL GROWTH RATE MODEL
Terminal Value
Final Forecast FCFf (m) = €8,742
Perpetual Growth Rate = 0.5%
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €201,447
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value = €195,001
Plus: Cash = €4,495
Less: Debt = €29,672
Equity Value = €169,824
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $65.08 / £54.66
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DISCLOSURE:
I/we have open long positions in Unilever. We have no immediate intentions of altering this position in the short term but have the right to change this if more information becomes available.
