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Unemployment

US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts. Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, significantly higher than recent lows. Historically, every similar increase has coincided with or preceded an official recession declaration. Yet, mainstream economic narratives have avoided labeling this a recession. What does this data tell us, and is the market accurately pricing in the risk? Are we already in a recession, or is this time different? Share your thoughts below. Let's discuss the disconnect between the unemployment reality and official recession narratives.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Teqnkka
Just got the May NFPs... Let's have a lookWe just received the May NFPs, which, overall, are not bad. Let's dig in. TVC:DXY TVC:DJI FX_IDC:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDCAD TVC:GOLD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
NFP is out. Market reaction - 2025.05.02The NFP number came out higher than the forecast, but lower than the previous (even the revised one). The initial reaction was in favour of DXY, but it has gone quiet very quickly. Maybe because of the fact that the market is preparing for some action on 7th of May, when the Fed announces interest rates. Let's dig in... MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX FX_IDC:AUDUSD FX_IDC:USDJPY Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom
Behind the Curtain: Bitcoin’s Surprising Macro Triggers1. Introduction Bitcoin Futures (BTC), once viewed as a niche or speculative product, have now entered the macroeconomic spotlight. Traded on the CME and embraced by institutions through ETF exposure, BTC Futures reflect not only digital asset sentiment—but also evolving reactions to traditional economic forces. While many traders still associate Bitcoin with crypto-native catalysts, machine learning reveals a different story. Today, BTC responds dynamically to macro indicators like Treasury yields, labor data, and liquidity trends. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to historical data to uncover the top economic signals impacting Bitcoin Futures returns across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes—some of which may surprise even seasoned macro traders. 2. Understanding Bitcoin Futures Contracts Bitcoin Futures provide institutional-grade access to BTC price movements—with efficient clearing and capital flexibility. o Standard BTC Futures (BTC): Tick Size: $5 per tick = $25 per tick per contract Initial Margin: ≈ $102,000 (subject to volatility) o Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT): Contract Size: 1/50th the BTC size Tick Size: $5 = $0.50 per tick per contract Initial Margin: ≈ $2,000 BTC and MBT trade nearly 24 hours per day, five days a week, offering deep liquidity and expanding participation across hedge funds, asset managers, and active retail traders. 3. Daily Timeframe: Short-Term Macro Sensitivity Bitcoin’s volatility makes it highly reactive to daily data surprises, especially those affecting liquidity and rates. Velocity of Money (M2): This lesser-watched indicator captures how quickly money circulates. Rising velocity can signal renewed risk-taking, often leading to short-term BTC movements. A declining M2 velocity implies tightening conditions, potentially pressuring BTC as risk appetite contracts. 10-Year Treasury Yield: One of the most sensitive intraday indicators for BTC. Yield spikes make holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin potentially less attractive. Declining yields could signal easing financial conditions, inviting capital back into crypto. Labor Force Participation Rate: While not a headline number, sudden shifts in labor force data can affect consumer confidence and policy tone—especially if they suggest a weakening economy. Bitcoin could react positively when data implies future easing. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Labor-Driven Market Reactions As BTC increasingly correlates with traditional markets, weekly economic data—especially related to labor—has become a mid-term directional driver. Initial Jobless Claims: Spikes in this metric can indicate rising economic stress. BTC could react defensively to rising claims, but may rally on drops, especially when seen as signs of stability returning. ISM Manufacturing Employment: This metric reflects hiring strength in the manufacturing sector. Slowing employment growth here could correlate with broader economic softening—something BTC traders can track as part of their risk sentiment gauge. Continuing Jobless Claims: Tracks the persistence of unemployment. Sustained increases can shake risk markets and pull BTC lower, while ongoing declines suggest an improving outlook, which could help BTC resume upward movement. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Macro Structural Themes Institutional positioning in Bitcoin increasingly aligns with high-impact monthly data. These indicators help shape longer-term views on liquidity, rate policy, and capital allocation: Unemployment Rate: A rising unemployment rate could shift market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and monetary easing, can benefit from this shift. In contrast, a low and steady unemployment rate may pressure BTC as it reinforces the case for higher interest rates. 10-Year Treasury Yield (again): On a monthly basis, this repeats and become a cornerstone macro theme. Initial Jobless Claims (again): Rather than individual weekly prints, the broader trend reveals structural shifts in the labor market. 6. Style-Based Strategy Insights Bitcoin traders often span a wide range of styles—from short-term volatility hunters to long-duration macro allocators. Aligning indicator focus by style is essential: o Day Traders Zero in on M2 velocity and 10-Year Yield to time intraday reversals or continuation setups. Quick pivots in bond yields or liquidity metrics could coincide with BTC spikes. o Swing Traders Use Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Employment trends to track momentum for 3–10 day moves. Weekly data may help catch directional shifts before they appear in price charts. o Position Traders Monitor macro structure via Unemployment Rate, 10Y Yield, and Initial Claims. These traders align portfolios based on broader economic trends, often holding exposure through cycles. 7. Risk Management Commentary Bitcoin Futures demand tactical risk management: Use Micro BTC Contracts (MBT) to scale in or out of trades precisely. Expect volatility around macro data releases—set wider stops with volatility-adjusted sizing. Avoid over-positioning near major Fed meetings, CPI prints, or labor reports. Unlike legacy markets, BTC can make multi-percent intraday moves. A robust risk plan isn’t optional—it’s survival. 8. Conclusion Bitcoin has matured into a macro-responsive asset. What once moved on hype now responds to the pulse of the global economy. From M2 liquidity flows and interest rate expectations, to labor market stability, BTC Futures reflect institutional sentiment shaped by data. BTC’s role in the modern portfolio is still evolving. But one thing is clear: macro matters. And those who understand which indicators truly move Bitcoin can trade with more confidence and precision. Stay tuned for the next edition of the "Behind the Curtain" series as we decode the economic machinery behind another CME futures product. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:BTC1!Education
by traddictiv
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over. Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains. The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet. We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
1
A quick glance at what's happening after the NFP releaseLet's see how markets are performing right now after we received the US NFP number for January, which showed a significant decline from the previous reading. However, average hourly earnings improved and unemployment fell to 4%. Last time we saw a reading as low as 4% was back in June of 2024. MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX MARKETSCOM:GOLD FX_IDC:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDCAD 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
US Unemployed to Employed as Indicator of Job Market HealthIn this chart, we use the following symbols: ECONOMICS:USNFP , FRED:UNEMPLOY ECONOMICS:USNFP represents the number of jobs created in a month. FRED:UNEMPLOY represents the number of unemployed individuals for a month. Assuming exactly 1 payroll per person , the ratio 100 * ECONOMICS:USNFP / ( FRED:UNEMPLOY + ECONOMICS:USNFP ) estimates the percentage of previously unemployed individuals who transitioned to employment in the month. If enough jobs are created, the current FRED:UNEMPLOY should equal the previous month's FRED:UNEMPLOY minus ECONOMICS:USNFP , as the jobs created should correspond to the unemployed who found work. When sufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed decreases, and the ratio increases. A "healthy" value for this ratio is around 2.5% , indicating that approximately 2.5% of unemployed individuals transition to employment each month . Conversely, if insufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed rises, and the ratio decreases. Ratios around 0% or negative values are usually observed during or before recessions, indicating an unhealthy job market . For last two consecutive months, the ratio has been 0.17% , suggesting an unhealthy job market . Similar patterns were observed before the DotCom and GFC recessions. If this trend continues for several months, it strongly suggests that the US is either on the verge of or already in a recession. Historically, when the 30-week SMA crosses below the 50-week SMA, it signals a recession. This signal was triggered in June '24.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by eugene_sea
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
BTC - 9/24/2024Historically, unemployment and inflation tend to alternate each other- hence the Philips inversion curve and other trading philosophies. Inflation is not necessarily under check in my opinion, but retail and establishments are eyeing up entries here as central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and Fed start cutting their interest rates as job numbers have arguably seemed to look good. In any case, I see cash injections in the economy and eased lending leading to some faith for a bullish scenario. The last time inflation and unemployment alternated severity, it caused a pretty substantial drop in BTC prices before a super-cycle. I'm bullish on the cycle overall.
Long
by O_Positive
USD/JPY surges as Bank of Japan stays patThe US dollar has posted sharp gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.85, up 0.88% at the time of writing. The yen hit a 14-month high on Monday but the dollar has rebounded and is up 2.1% this week. It’s an unusually quiet Friday with no US events on the calendar. The Bank of Japan held its rate decision just after the Federal Reserve, but there was little drama at the BoJ meeting. The markets had expected that central bank to maintain rates at “around 0.25%” and the BoJ didn’t provide any clues about future hikes. The rate statement didn’t reveal much, stating that the economy had “recovered moderately” but some weakness remained. The statement noted concern over “developments in financial and foreign exchange market and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices”. Governor Ueda said last month that the BoJ would raise rate if the economy and inflation were in line with the Bank’s projections. If key data, particularly inflation, is stronger than expected in the coming weeks, we could see a rate hike at the October meeting. With inflation in the US largely under control, the Federal Reserve is keeping a worried eye on the labor market, as job growth as deteriorated quickly. That slide has unnerved financial markets and may have been a key factor in the Fed’s jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points this week. Thursday’s unemployment claims for the period ending Sept. 14 were better than expected, at 219 thousand. This was well below the revised 231 thousand reading a week earlier and beat the market estimate of 230 thousand. USD/JPY pushed above resistance at 142.41 earlier. The next resistance line is 144.55 There is support at 142.41 and 141.00
by OANDA
The 3-way of Economic Nightmares.I recently had a discussion on X, with regard to the Forecasting ability of High Yield Spreads. I was making the claim they do possess Leading Indicator qualities, while a gentleman took the other side of this debate. To illustrate my views, I've put together a chart of FedFunds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and said High Yield Spreads. This chart shows the last ~28yr of the above mentioned series, and how they "play" with one another. A) Shows the period leading into the "DotCom" Bubble. We see High Yield Spreads rise first - Leading the other two data series. In a Coincident fashion, FedFunds then rolls over, while Unemployment shoots higher. A successful "Forecast" by High Yield Spreads of the impending Downturn/Recession. A successful Leading Indicator. B) Shows the period leading into the "GFC". We once again see High Yield Spreads rise, this time SHARPLY, albeit with much less "lead time" than the previous example. As with example A), FedFunds and Unemployment then begin their inverse (to each other) dance. Once again showing High Yields Spread giving us that Advanced/Leading warning that things were getting fragile in the economy. A successful Leading Indicator - with admittedly less warning time. C) Shows us an outlier in this analysis, and for good reason. We see our 'significant' rise in High Yield Spreads, but what we do NOT see, is FedFunds and Unemployment doing their typical dance. Unemployment continues to head lower, while FedFunds begin to rise - the OPPOSITE of what they did in the prior 2 examples. D) Shows the period surrounding Covid. Once again High Yield Spreads shoot up in a dramatic fashion, warning bells should be going off in markets. Much like 2 of the previous 3 examples, FedFunds had also been in a "hiking" cycle. And right on cue, Unemployment skyrockets; completing our 3-way from Hell. We now find ourself in E). In the Oval we see our significant rise in High Yield Spreads, but this is accompanied by rising FedFunds, so we do not have our "danger" signal. Unemployment also remains low. We now however see High Yield Spreads beginning to turn up, with talks of Rate Cuts to FedFunds, as well as Unemployment rising. History may not repeat, but it does often rhyme. Are we starting to see warning signs flashing? Only time will tell, but as stated in previous posts... It's definitely not a time to be leveraged, or riding on large gains you haven't secured. TLDR; High Yield Spreads followed by Fallings FedFunds and Rising Unemployment = Market/Economic Stroke. As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management. And thank you for your time.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
by mrjones2020
240812 Market OutlookLast two weeks adjustment was aligned with the rise in Unemployment Rate and associated worries about the possible US economic slowdown. A week ago gap was closed last Friday, but there still remain another gap on Aug-2, which slightly increase the probability of further rise in US stocks. The focus of this week is inflation data from US, including PPI on Tue, Inflation Rate on Wed and Retail Sales on Thu. Additionally, investors should pay attention to Initial Claims on Thu and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Fri.
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic? Understanding the Economic Data Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession. In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time. Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern. Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around. With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves. Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets. Understanding the Market Trends While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound. The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts. The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell. The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk. This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy. Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation. Concluding Thoughts While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
AMEX:SPY
by QuantitativeAlpha
Differentiate between rate cut and low interest rateNo important economic data from US this week, only trade balance and initial claims to observe on Tue and Thu respectively. US stock market continued decline on Fri, following weakening labor market conditions and earnings from big tech companies last week. In expectations of rate cut, big shots are reducing portfolios. The situation may last until we actually see the first rate cut in the cycle and longer. The rise in stocks is usually associated with low interest rate, I would expect the adjustment in S&P to continue along the path of rate cut. So investors should differentiate between rate cut action and low interest rate, which are presented as two distinguished market conditions.
SP:SPXShort
by moncap2023