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Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart. Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside. Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels. Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out. There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring. Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea. Disclosure I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys Thanks for reading! Not Financial Advice
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ZachSap
Natural Gas Goes Kaboom!Profits have been secured I the Natural gas trade. That being said I still think Nat gas equities can push higher. On the UNG chart we just saw the 20 day MA & 50 Day MA bullishly crossover each other. Last time this happened Nat gas had a 4-5 day parabolic move. The bulls must be careful to not push this commodity up too quickly because it makes the pattern less likely to have a continued breakout. We are still putting in Lower weekly highs, so the next test of the most recent pivot high is going to be crucial. If the bulls can trigger the weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern there's going to be a great long continuation opportunity. Until we break the pivot high & create a higher high traders must use caution now that we've had a large move occur. AR, EQT, CPK, LNG are all set to push higher if Nat gas holds these gains.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
1
Preparing for Winter: Accumulating Natural Gas and DBC ETFs in ATitle: Preparing for Winter: Accumulating Natural Gas and DBC ETFs in Anticipation of Rising Prices Comment: As colder months approach, I'm positioning myself strategically by accumulating Natural Gas, expecting a significant price surge driven by tight supply and potential demand spikes. Additionally, I'm reinforcing my portfolio with the DBC ETF, which covers commodities within the same sector. With rising energy needs on the horizon, this could be the perfect storm for a strong rally in energy markets.
AMEX:UNGLong
by Maximus20000
Natural Gas: Weak Day / Strong WeekNatural gas had a bit of profit taking today and you can't blame the bulls for trimming especially since we did the same. The Daily chart now needs a couple days of consolidation before another sustainable push. The weekly chart recaptured the 50 Weekly MA...very good near term sign. This can now be used as a support level to trade against for very tight stoploss swing traders. As long as we remain above the breakout neckline we should be likely heading to retest 2.75 & $2.90 Levels below can cause nat gas to fail and fall substantially. Alway remembers the Weekly trend still has Lower highs in place.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas waking up? Nat gas showed some poise today. Holding green in a red market where most commodities saw negative price action. This is impressive to see because Nat gas has a long historical trend of diverging from many commodities. The price action today also saw a red to green reversal further emphasizing the positive potential trend shift. Nat gas stocks were discounted today despite the stronger price action in the commodity. We remain bullish and long UNG, our call positions in the money.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas: are bulls capitulating? The bulls have made 9 attempts at breaking out. All attempts have failed which has led us to this sharp decline. Nat gas is holding the 20 day MA but it does look somewhat vulnerable to going lower. The death cross is getting closer and closer as we approach the 50 MA & 200 MA downtrending intersection. Our members stopped out of the second half of UNG in profits I am now hoping and waiting for a sub $2 pierce retest. we shall see if we get it.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural gas is the downtrend resuming? Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend. Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe. This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price. However historically were still at some oversold levels. Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower. Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA closely...do we get the death cross formation to occur again? Usually this signal provides a near term bounce but medium term decline.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
7
Natural Gas: Do or Die!We secured half of our profits yesterday, however I still think we have a very good chance of higher price. Nat gas needs to make a decision by getting above this key Covid trend line. We are observing another "death cross" formation developing. If price action keeps rejecting the daily 200MA we may go lower. Today inventories came out: consensus was 42B actual -6B This was a dramatic forecast miss & supports higher price / more demand. If Nat gas can get above this key covid trend line, we are well on our way to $3+
AMEX:UNG
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas...New All time lows? Natural gas has seen a failed breakout on the daily chart. After this failed breakout occured its been weeks of relentless sell side pressure. We have lost key weekly and daily supports, which doesn't help the bullish case. There is 1 small positive on the daily chart: a positive RSI bullish divergence. Understanding how this commodity works, one should be prepared for a downside case of $1.60. Its not a guarantee but a possibility. The Nat gas resource stocks are mixed and showing sings of volume accumulation. I'm watching the $1.95 Gap fill on Nat Gas very closely. If the bulls defend that area we could rally quickly. Keep your eye om the "Death Cross" signal, usually a buy signal for a short term bounce.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas: Will the bulls ever come back? Another sell side day for nat gas...what else is new? back to the same technical support trend line for Nat gas. technically this is support. If this trend line holds we will see an epic bounce IMO. If we break this are we could be testing $1.90. I believe that this is still a great risk to reward to accumulate for the long term, while understanding there could still be another 20% down if we break this level...so HODL accordingly.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital