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US02

Gold ready for Sell-off in 1957/73 zone for targets 1925/12/021. Gold has reached Daily supply zone 1957-73 2. 1960 is also the lower end of long term Weekly supply zone. 3. Gold is also near the top of the descending channel from May 2023 high 1981.82 4. Fall in DXY and drops in US yields did not lead to growth in Gold today. Sell in the 1957-1973 supply zone for : Short term targets - 1925/1912/1902 Medium term target - 1855 Please boost the idea, comment if you like any part of it. For deeper fundamental insight, pls read the details of previous idea (the last one). Happy trading! Tarang
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by FX-trader-
3
S&P vs UST YieldsYields are going crazy right now. Everything seems like a disaster. Oddly enough, when these particular yields invert (gray boxes), the 10/2, it is historically not the best time to go short, but rather you would have benefited if you had shorted AFTER yields uninverted above 1.0(red dots). Now, okay, maybe this time is different, a ratio of 0.87 isn't exactly sane at this point and maybe the whole thing comes crashing down. It's also true that about a third of this chart represented a fundamentally bullish and arguably much more healthy market, and this is true, we could have samples that don't exactly reflect current conditions. What I'm not so certain about is the idea that the market being bearish or bullish is somehow a barometer of what's going to happen next. At the end of the day, monetary policy rules market prices and perhaps this can be taken as sign that perhaps we don't *really* know what's going on behind the scenes, which strings are being pulled, and how hard. The market is not the economy. The FED has a trading desk at the NY Stock Exchange. Let us ask this question: if it is not absolutely necessary in their eyes to have such a trading desk, why would it exist? Could it be the case that it's simply there and yet they aren't using it? I think that is the less probable scenario. Take it as you will. Considering the sharp cataclysm of yield inversion, I'm not sure this could constitute trading advice, but I thought it was interesting, as it could be considered bullish evidence for a "last rally" into a mammoth sized selloff. What do you think? Still bearish? Bullish all the way? Even more confused now!? Have I gone completely crazy?? Let me know! Thanks for taking a look, take care, and don't forget to hedge your bets.
TVC:US10YLong
by fringe_chartist
6
ridethepig | US Yields Breaking Higher!So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report. This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are talking about is taking measures outguessing the road to normalisation of rates which we have not yet recognised as such. Now we turn to the analysis of play in unemployment claims, despite how the media are selling business as usual we have a long (and likely sluggish) road to recovery, because of the poor handling of lockdowns and closures. The one who is playing the macro data always has the upper hand, but this is especially the case once we clear the 'knee-jerk reaction' from the virus. The recurring bankruptcies, layoffs, social unrest and shutdowns have been forgotten about after politicians promising diversions! Smart money will not move so easily. Retail will pay their tribute in the form of horrible losses to an unconditional truth. Vix has completed the round trip, first prize to all those riding it from 85! Of course the swing from 85 was no less imaginative than the swing from +/- 11 lows: We are entering into a new development for volatility, my models are forecasting a dramatic expansion into year-end which will make it very difficult for manual or emotional players. 2022/2023 looks like the start of the next bull run in global equities, expectations are for advanced conditions to remain with us for 12-18 months.
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2020.04.10An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets. A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC completion from a strictly technical sense to complete the pattern. It will make things a lot easier for later in the year / into 2021 (and beyond). On the map a very simple area to track: Steel Resistance 0.89 <=> Strong Resistance 0.77 <=> Soft Resistance 0.69 <=> Mid-Point FLIP 0.6 0 <=> Soft Support 0.48 <=> Strong Support 0.39 <=> Steel Support 0.30 Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc... jump in with your questions and views!
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | US02Y Market Commentary 2020.02.25Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is condemned to death, it is quite understandable for those wanting to sell Bonds are the highest price possible. Generally speaking, such a telegraphed move is much stranger to the novice than an experienced: Virus worries and Japan confirming recession is trigger a move in vol, and it makes the US05Y-US02Y attractive. Treasuries will outperform for the coming months, Equities will remain soft until later in the year. Hesitant to build full sized positions till we have a technical break as we are aggressively outguessing the next move from FED. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming via likes and comments! Jump in with your charts below!
TVC:US02YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 2s10s Curve Breaking HigherI have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up: This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and diverging at the prior lows in a long-term swing. A mixture of profit taking and momentum tiring. A break above is triggering the flows, with next key levels in play at 35.5bps, 49bps and 60bps as the final target. US10Y DE10Y As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversation in the comments with your views/charts.
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 2s5s Curve Screaming Recession in 2020A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout. (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. (2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". (3) The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. For those tracking the renewed steepening there are plenty of opportunities if you know how to capture the symmetry; for example Banks outperforming was a no-brainer: Defensives outperforming: Rotation in full swing: End of the Cycle? Smells like it... Recession is calling... Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle... this chart will be one for the history books.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
2
US02Y: Aug 2019 - time to panic?Good afternoon. This is the chart that everybody yelling about. May this year price close below monthly support. Today (Aug 2019) we have a green 9 and doubts. The importance of this level is significant, but first let's compare 1991 vs 1995 vs 2000 vs 2008 vs NOW(2019) You can do it yourself and come to any conclusion you will, but I want you to know that since our last cycle longed for 12 years I believe our next cycle is going to long 12 years as well just like it did in 1991(5Y cycle) and 1995(5Y cycle) with the worst years of recession falling on the 2030's from this point of view. So the worst could be right upon ahead of us and still there is quite significant time we have till this recession and who knows maybe even 2012 was THE lowest low and so something going to change that trend in future since it is a 3rd time in last 3 decades(!) Everything possible. This is not about predicting the future, this is about predicting opportunities that may come in future. Be well, my friend!
TVC:US07Y
by sequentialvision
US10Y - 2019: A Race to the Finish Line?Looks like we can anticipate another impulse wave on US treasury yields as we follow our thesis that the US10 yield will kiss the upper boundary historical trendline before we see a reversal. Implications here will likely result in a rebounding/consolidating stock market and a strengthening of the USD against many major currencies while markets undergo major trend changes. ***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
TVC:US10YLong
by Trader6127