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Usd-jpy-sell

Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen DownSTRATEGY LONG TARGET 175USD YEN The market thinks the Bank of Japan’s new governor is negative for the yen and a plus for stocks, at least based on his first policy board meeting. In fact, the headline NFP print showed that the US economy added 253K new jobs in April against 179K anticipated, offsetting the downwardly revised reading of 165K. Adding to this, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4% during the reported month from 3.5% in March, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain strong positive traction and provides a goodish lift to the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a goodish recovery in the equity markets - undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and further contributes to the bid tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less hawkish stance holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and keeps a lid on any further gains, at least for now. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak and stalled this week's sharp retracement slide from the 137.75-137.80 region, or a two-month high. Spot prices, however, remain on track to register losses for the first time in the previous four weeks. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets around the major. After Gov. Kazuo Ueda presided over his first meeting, the bank emphasized that it would continue monetary easing to support growth in wages and prices. That was enough to persuade market players that an interest-rate increase isn’t in the cards soon. Late Friday in Tokyo, the yen was trading at around 136 to the dollar, compared with around 134 to the dollar before the central bank’s midday decision. The USD/JPY pair catches aggressive bids during the early North American session and jumps to the 135.00 psychological mark in reaction to the stellar US monthly employment details. USD BULLISH When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid There is no alternative to the US dollar No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
59
USDJPY 24/9/23UJ giving some of the cleanest price action from Thursday and Friday leading us into what we have now which is a swing range to go lower, now we can clearly see we are sitting close to the SWH and have created liquid above the relatively equal highs BUT overall we do want to see some lower prices, if we don't take the high at open and we break down lower id be more inclined to look for sells, as always we will jut wait till its our time to trade then get in where we see fit! Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by PipSurfingSociety
USD/JPY sticks to BoJ-inspired strong gainsSTRATEGY LONG The Japanese yen depreciated past 134.5 per dollar, sliding back toward its weakest levels in seven weeks as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy and made no adjustments to its yield curve control. However, the BOJ said it will remove forward guidance that pledges to keep interest rates at current or low levels. Latest data showed that core consumer prices in Japan’s capital, Tokyo, accelerated and exceeded forecasts in April, keeping the pressure on the central bank to adjust its current monetary settings. Externally, firm expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in May continued to weigh on the yen, though recession fears and renewed concerns about the banking sector in the US limited the currency’s decline. The USD/JPY pair builds on its strong intraday rally and climbs to its highest level since March 10, around the 136.40 region during the early North American session. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips following the release of the US macro data and trade around the 136.00 mark, still up over 1.5% for the day. This, along with a sharp intraday decline in the US Treasury bond yields, keeps a lid on any further gains for the Greenback. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse - as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets - lends some support to the safe-haven JPY and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair amid slightly overbought oscillators on hourly charts. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong gains for the third successive week, also marking the fifth week of a positive move in the previous six. BULLISH FACTS When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid There is no alternative to the US dollar No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth BEARISH FACTS US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged America on verge of losing petrodollar privilege Other regions may need to continue their crusade for inflation, reducing spreads of debt securities yields Combination of lower Fed rate expectations and improved risk sentiment is quintessentially negative No more Fed hikes, potentially lethal to the US Dollar US economy to slip into recession, Fed eventually cut rates quicker than peer institutions Sticky inflation? What is sticky is the downtrend Fed will start cutting interest rates quicker than foreign central banks Backing the US disinflation process and lower US rates Shock growth shows worker supply is rising, inflation to fall, USD to retreat End to monetary tightening should bring the USD's gains to an end Incremental news outside of the US growing more positive Fed to end its tightening cycle and US economic trend to worsen
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
USDJPY Forming a bear flagHey Traders, USDJPY is forming a bear flag and now seems to be approaching an important weekly zone of 132 if we get a decent rejection i would target more lows. Fundamentally US data continue to print soft and signal no more rate hike from fed as inflation tensions are easing so the market is expecting more of a dovish upcoming monetary policies. JPY is considered also a safe haven along with CHF so i expect both to have a likelihood to outperform USD. Feel free to ask any question in the comment section. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
6
USDJPY Breakout and potential retraceHey traders, USDJPY was trading in an uptrend but successfully managed to break it out as the environment of USD continue weakening. Fundamentally there are high expectations on a less restrictive monetary policy from the US as inflation tensions have eased. in a second point JPY is considered a safe haven with current banking sector crisis. Technically we will be watching a potential retrace of the trend around 132.2 support and resistance zone. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
15
USDJPY approaching an important supply zoneHey Traders, USDJPY is trading in a descending channel and extending pullbacks seems to be approaching the channel resistance around 131.7 Supply and demand zone. if the rejection is confirmed i would set the channel support as a target around 127.500 zone. Fundamentally JPY is considered a safe haven with current banking sector crisis and BoJ monetary policy changes expectations and the last FOMC have showed dovish sentiments from the fed since he didn't mentioned any further rate hikes in his speech. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
34
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, USDJPY was trading in an uptrend, but after Friday's NFP data USDJPY managed to breakout the trend and now in a correction phase. i expect USD to be more weak in the short term until the release of CPI data by Tuesday so we can have a more clear vision of fed monetary policy. High CPI indicates more of a restrictive monetary policy so more of a strong dollar and USDJPY upsides. a soft CPI indicates more of a dovish FOMC and then more USDJPY downsides. Technically we noticed the breakout of the uptrend so i will be monitoring USDJPY for a potential retrace of the trend around 136.1 zone. in case CPI is soft by Tuesday i would set 132.7 as a target as it's the next decent resistance and support zone the pair will be facing. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
18