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Usdcadlong

USDCAD WILL DELIVER BY FIREThe USD/CAD trended lower in a volatile manner this week, declining 0.29% on a weekly basis, reflecting the relative resilience of the Canadian dollar supported by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policy and economic data. The BoC maintained its interest rate at 2.75%, in line with market expectations. The BoC's concerns about Trump's tariff policies mirror the widespread anxieties among global central banks regarding the impact of trade wars. The central bank is likely to remain on hold in the short term to observe the effects of trade policies. If employment data turns out to be robust, the Canadian dollar may gain further support. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Long
by Ashbur
2
USDCAD Rebound from Key Support – Bullish Setup in PlayUSDCAD pair has reached a technical inflection point at key support around 1.3700, where it is attempting a rebound after several days of bearish momentum. With recent Canadian data showing underlying economic strain and the U.S. dollar reacting to rate expectations and tariff news, this area becomes crucial for the next directional move. 🔍 Technical Analysis Support Level: Price has respected the horizontal support at 1.3700–1.3685, forming a possible double-bottom structure on the 4H chart. Bullish Reversal Zone: The latest candle shows a strong rejection wick at the support zone, suggesting bullish interest. The structure aligns with a classic bullish reversal pattern. Target Zones: First TP: 1.3849 (previous high / supply zone). Second TP: 1.3860–1.3870 (Fibonacci extension + minor resistance). Invalidation (SL): Below 1.3685, further downside may open to 1.3632. 🧠 Fundamental Context U.S. Side: GDP and NFP data have recently come out mixed, reducing the immediate pressure on the Fed to hike rates further. Tariff uncertainty and appeal plans by the Trump administration are increasing near-term USD volatility. US bond yields are firming again, giving the dollar mild support. Canada Side: Canadian Q1 GDP disappointed at 0.1%, lower than expected. BoC is likely to hold rates steady, but the economy shows weak business investment and softening consumption growth. Crude oil, Canada’s key export, is still under pressure, slightly weakening CAD. ✅ Conclusion This setup favors a short-term long on USDCAD from current levels, targeting the upper resistance zone at 1.3849–1.3860. A break and close above 1.3870 could extend toward 1.3900. However, caution should be exercised with upcoming U.S. labor and trade data that may fuel volatility.
Long
by ultreosforex
13
USDCAD Price Rebounding from Key Support as CAD WeakensUSDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal from key support around the 1.3700–1.3685 zone. The pair had been declining steadily but recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar — driven by soft economic data and oil market uncertainty — is starting to shift momentum back in favor of the U.S. Dollar. As long as support holds, there is room for a bullish continuation toward 1.3860 or higher in the near term. Technical Analysis (4H Chart) Trend Structure: After a strong impulsive drop earlier in May, USDCAD formed a rounded bottom near 1.3685, followed by a corrective bounce. The recent retracement toward the support area is forming a potential higher low setup. Support Zone: Primary Support: 1.3700–1.3685 This is a clean structure zone and previous demand level. Price tested this area on May 24–25 and rebounded sharply. Resistance Zone: Short-Term Target: 1.3849–1.3860 This is the next major horizontal resistance, and aligns with previous price congestion before the latest decline. Price Projection: The chart suggests a bullish wave may develop from the support zone, targeting the 1.3860 level. If broken, a further move toward 1.3920 (May swing high) is possible. Invalidation Level: A daily close below 1.3680 would negate the bullish bias and signal a deeper correction or trend continuation lower. Fundamental Analysis U.S. Dollar (USD) Drivers: Q1 GDP second estimate shows steady but modest growth. Consumer Confidence fell recently, capping upside for the USD short term. The Fed remains cautious, signaling that inflation risks persist — keeping interest rates elevated, which supports USD. U.S. Treasury yields have been stable to slightly higher, also helping support the dollar. Canadian Dollar (CAD) Drivers: Canada's balance of payments posted a larger-than-expected deficit in Q1 — a negative for CAD. Oil prices, which heavily influence CAD, have been under pressure from global demand uncertainty. Domestic demand is softening: flat retail sales and weak trade balance data reduce CAD appeal. Bank of Canada is showing signs of policy caution, especially as inflation slows faster than in the U.S. Conclusion Outlook: Short-term bullish USDCAD is likely to bounce from the 1.3700–1.3685 zone and retest 1.3849–1.3860 if CAD weakness continues. Trade Plan (if trading): Buy Zone: 1.3700–1.3685 Target: 1.3860 Stop Loss: Below 1.3680 (structure break) The pair is fundamentally supported by CAD weakness and technically primed for a rebound — but confirmation from price action near support is critical.
Long
by ultreosforex
18
Cautious Bulls Meet Trendline Test: USD/CAD Eyes FOMC CatalystCMCMARKETS:USDCAD OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD extended its recovery for the third day, trading near 1.3833 on modest USD strength following upbeat U.S. data. However, fiscal worries and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025 may limit upside momentum. Traders are cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes and U.S. PCE/GDP data, while firmer Canadian inflation and oil prices could support the CAD. Technically, the pair remains within a broad downward channel and is now approaching key resistance at 1.3856, aligned with the descending trendline. A clear rejection here could spark a bearish continuation toward 1.3711 support. A breakout above 1.3937 would invalidate the bearish channel and suggest trend reversal. Resistance : 1.3856 , 1.3937 Support : 1.3711 , 1.3809
by ATFX_Global
PERHAPS... USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D23 Y25PERHAPS... A REVERSAL BACK TO THE HTF 50EMA's USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D23 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order Block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅15' order block identified ✅Weekly 50 EMA ✅Daily 50 EMA 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDCAD TechnicalsThe pair attempting a recovery following a sharp bearish decline. After a significant selloff, price found strong support in the 1.38300–1.38440 zone, where multiple rejections indicate the presence of demand. This area has now acted as a base for a bullish reaction, confirmed by increasing bullish volume on the most recent candles. The recovery is now pushing back toward a previously broken structure zone around 1.38770–1.38800, which is expected to act as resistance. This is a critical level to watch, as it previously marked a breakdown point. If price manages to push above and hold, it could signal a reversal or at least a corrective rally within the broader downtrend. Momentum indicators are showing early signs of recovery. The RSI has climbed to around 46, rebounding from a low and crossing its moving average. While it remains below the neutral 50 level—still slightly favoring sellers—the upward momentum is strengthening. This supports the current short-term bullish movement, especially if price remains above the 1.3840 handle. The short-term trend is shifting toward bullish, supported by a potential higher low structure forming after the recent dip. A clean break and hold above 1.3880 could open the door for a move toward the psychological round number at 1.3900 and potentially higher toward 1.3920–1.3940. However, if the price fails to hold above 1.3840 and breaks back into the support box with bearish volume, the recovery thesis would be invalidated, suggesting a potential revisit of the 1.3820 level and lower. In summary, the chart suggests a cautious bullish bias with near-term upside potential, contingent on maintaining support above the demand zone and breaking through the resistance around 1.3880 with momentum.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx
USDCAD Consolidation Within Bullish Flag – Targets 1.4130USDCAD is consolidating inside a descending flag structure following a strong impulsive rally earlier in May. The current pullback is orderly and corrective, indicating potential for continuation higher. If price breaks above 1.3960, this flag breakout could extend toward 1.4130 and possibly 1.4225. With CAD weakening on soft oil prices and USD regaining strength from yield-driven flows, the bias remains bullish while price stays above 1.3870. 🔍 Technical Analysis Pattern: Bullish flag forming after a strong rally Support Zone: 1.3870–1.3900 → base of flag Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.3960–1.3980 → upper flag line Structure: Higher lows holding firm Fib confluence near 1.3933 (23.6% retracement) Target Levels: 1.4130 – 50% fib level + previous structure resistance 1.4225 – 61.8% fib zone from March–April high 📈 Bias: Bullish continuation on breakout 🌍 Fundamental Context 🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD) Supported by: Higher bond yields Fed expected to hold rates higher for longer Safe-haven inflows post-Moody’s downgrade fading USD Index recovering broadly across majors 🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Oil prices softening due to global demand concerns (China slowdown, US inventories) BoC likely done hiking — no fresh bullish catalysts CAD correlation with crude oil adds downside risk if energy markets weaken further 🎯 Trade Plan Entry: Break and close above 1.3960 Stop Loss: Below 1.3870 (flag support zone) Targets: TP1: 1.4130 (structure resistance + fib level) TP2: 1.4225 (swing high + golden ratio) ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch If USD sentiment shifts (e.g., dovish Fed speaker) → breakout may fail Crude oil rebound would support CAD and cap USD/CAD upside False breakouts common near 1.3960 — wait for confirmation (strong candle close) 🧭 Conclusion USD/CAD remains in a bullish consolidation phase with a clear continuation setup. A break above 1.3960 would confirm a flag breakout targeting 1.4130 and 1.4225. With the macro backdrop favoring the USD and energy-linked CAD weakening, this setup offers clean structure and potential for follow-through.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
USDCAD Is Bullish! Long!The USD/CAD exchange rate consolidated near 1.3980 during the European trading session, after the Canadian dollar (CAD) came under pressure due to falling crude oil prices, enabling the pair to recover earlier losses. Given that Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the U.S., declining oil prices typically dampen CAD sentiment. USD/CAD is displaying a complex technical trend. On the daily chart, the price is currently consolidating around the 1.3980 level. The pair has rebounded from a recent low of 1.3749 and is now attempting to break through the key psychological barrier of 1.4000. If it can surpass both the 1.4000 psychological level and the 1.4050 resistance, further upside toward 1.4150 could be possible. On the downside, key support lies at 1.3890 (the lower edge of the recent consolidation range) and 1.3749 (the recent low). you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
1
USDCAD Analysis: Three Bounce ScenariosHello traders! USDCAD is offering three trading scenarios on the daily timeframe. The first scenario suggests the pair may react bullishly from the currently approached zone, setting up a bounce opportunity that could drive price higher toward the 1.41600 area. The second scenario anticipates a bounce toward the 1.37586 region, where a mean reversion setup may come into play (if buyers step in and price action confirms bullish intent near that support). The third scenario anticipates a bounce toward the 1.34150 region, where a mean reversion setup may come into play (if buyers step in and price action confirms bullish intent near that support). Discretionary Trading: Where Experience Becomes the Edge Discretionary trading is all about making decisions based on what you see, what you feel, and what you've learned through experience. Unlike systematic strategies that rely on fixed rules or algorithms, discretionary traders use their judgment to read the market in real time. It's a skill that can't be rushed, because it's built on screen time, pattern recognition, and the ability to stay calm under pressure. There's no shortcut here. You need to see enough market conditions, wins, and losses to build that intuition—the kind that tells you when to pull the trigger or sit on your hands. Charts might look the same, but context changes everything, and that's something only experience can teach you. At the end of the day, discretionary trading is an art, refined over time, sharpened through mistakes, and driven by instinct. It's not for everyone, but for those who've put in the work, it can be a powerful way to trade.
Long
by davidavasalcai
38
Canadians Are DustedEssentially they have given their nation to communism and will suffer the consequences of poor economic performance especially when compared to the US. Over the long term CAD has only gotten weaker, and if you go back to 2007-2008 you see a massive dollar rally. Due to future economic turmoil I see again the dollar outperforming similar to 07-08 and making new all time highs. We have already seen a retracement of all the gains USD made against CAD this year, in my opinion was expedited due to Trumps tariff tweets, now we shall begin the trend towards new highs. While that is the macro view, my short term trade is that USD will see buys to 1.40. Only at that level is the potential for further downside possible. But till then we will see price move towards 1.40 after a retracement to 1.383 Note my chart is inverted Just to be clear, first we will see shorts to 1.383, then we will see buys to 1.40. So a retracement then a continuation of the bullish dollar.
Long
by CryptoKarmaker
USDCAD – Reversal Setup Ahead of FOMC DecisionUSD/CAD has bounced off strong support near 1.3770, forming a clean bullish structure into a pivotal week dominated by the FOMC meeting. Price action shows higher lows and a tightening range, signaling a potential breakout. With the Fed expected to hold rates but maintain a hawkish tone, the USD may regain strength — especially against the CAD, which remains under pressure from trade risks and weak oil prices. 🔹 Technical Setup: Structure: Rejection at 1.3770 support with ascending trendline developing. Pattern: Bullish flag breakout (visible on 2H chart). Momentum: Recovery candles suggest buyers regaining control ahead of resistance. Key Levels: Support: 1.3770 – 1.3780 Resistance: TP1: 1.3852 (Fib 61.8%) TP2: 1.3891 (swing high zone) TP3: 1.3950 (major breakout target) Invalidation: Below 1.3760 🧠 Fundamental View: USD Outlook: The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on May 7, but officials are pushing back against early rate-cut expectations. Chair Powell is likely to emphasize inflation risks and signal no imminent easing. This stance supports USD resilience, especially if the Fed reiterates “higher for longer” messaging. CAD Outlook: The Canadian economy continues to face export challenges from U.S. tariffs, weakening business sentiment. Meanwhile, softening oil prices reduce support for the CAD. With the Bank of Canada having already delivered several rate cuts, it remains more dovish than the Fed — creating a widening policy divergence. 💡 Trade Idea: Bias: Bullish above 1.3780 Entry Zone: 1.3800–1.3820 Target 1: 1.3852 Target 2: 1.3891 Target 3: 1.3950 Stop Loss: Below 1.3760 📌 Watch for volatility during and after the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference. A hawkish surprise could fuel a sharp move toward 1.39+.
Long
by ultreosforex
4
USDCAD Massive Long! BUY!The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at a critical juncture, and the Fed's interest rate decision will be the focus of the market in the near future. Traders generally expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, but the market is more concerned about Powell's statement at the press conference, especially his response to tariff uncertainty and the political pressure from Trump to cut interest rates. However, the domestic data in Canada is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index in Canada in April was much lower than expected, dropping from 51.2 in the forecast to 48.0, indicating that business sentiment is deteriorating. Recently, after the exchange rate broke through the important psychological level of 1.3900, the kinetic energy has further increased, and it has quickly approached the 1.3750 support area. The RSI indicator is currently at the 35.49 level. Although it has not yet entered the strict oversold area, it is already close to this level, which may mean that a technical rebound will occur in the short term. Currently, the 1.3750 - 1.3700 range has become a key support area. This area is both a key technical position and a psychological support. If this range is broken, the next target may be the 1.3610 level. The resistance levels above are first 1.3900, and then the psychological level of 1.4000. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USD/CAD - Wedge Breakout (06.05.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3893 2nd Resistance – 1.3928 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
16
Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgeCurrently, the USD/CAD is in a crucial support area. The weakness of the US dollar and the improvement in the fundamental aspects of the Canadian dollar have created a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Traders are adopting a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range of 1.3760-1.3844. Once the resistance/support level is broken through, they will follow the trend accordingly. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USD/CAD: Time to Go Long?On the monthly chart, USD/CAD has found strong support, signaling a potential bullish continuation. With anticipated USD strength in the coming weeks, there’s a clear opportunity for the pair to move higher. We are targeting 1.40180 as the first objective, with the potential to extend towards 1.41500 if momentum continues. On the daily chart, the price is showing signs of weakness but also bullish intent, suggesting a possible retracement before a move higher. Ideally, a pullback into the 1.38490 – 1.38450 zone would offer a high-probability long entry.
Long
by Wiiso
1
Analysis of the USD/CAD Exchange RateAs of last Friday, the USD/CAD exchange rate traded in the range of 1.3800 - 1.3850, down 0.0217% compared to the previous day. The key resistance level was 1.3844, and the support level was 1.3760. In the short term, the fluctuations are dominated by the US non - farm payrolls data and trade policies: strong US employment data may support the rebound of the US dollar. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USDCAD: New month, first green dayHello traders and welcome back to my channel, as always, my analysis are not a way to predict the market, but long and short are just a signal regarding the setup I'm looking for the day. Guessing the direction is not part of my job, entering setups in line with my thesis, that's my job! A little consideration before analysing this current week, the previous week, placed the monthly low, and retested it completing a pump and dump template. We are currently into the April monthly low and I'm looking for a long opportunity considering the potential volume trapped down low. But what happened this week and why I'm bullish? Monday, is the opening range of the week, weekly boundaries are now in place and short breakout traders are involved in the market. Tuesday, initial balance, expanded the range lower, triggering again shorts in the market. Wednesday, midpoint of the week, breakout lower again, stopping the traders long from the April monthly low and closing the day in breakout, going in consolidation into the end of the day. To me, this aspect is pretty important, triggering traders down low, with not really a strong momentum, typically gives me the signal of a potential reversal. Thursday, pretty much Asia and London session consolidated down low around the closing price, breaking the daily high for the first time during the week (which is to me a break in structure). The day closed as first green day, which is a potential long signal, especially when appears down low. Today, Friday, last day of the week and first day of the new month, I can see a potential dump and pump setting up for the day, but NFP is on schedule and it can mess up completely the overall setup. How I'm gonna take this trade? Well, first of all no action will be taken before news release at 8:30am NYT, after that, if the dump and pump is still intact during NY session, I will be willing to position myself in the market, accordingly with my entry criteria (typically bullish price action coiling for a long move). Can the market go lower? Absolutely yes! As I said, I do not predict any direction, but overall today I won't be interested in shorting USDCAD, because typically shoring into the weekly low, is not a very profitable trade opportunity, and I typically don't like to stuck in a trade for ages! :) I will update anyway the intraday overview during the NY session, starting in a couple of hours! Gianni
Long
by GianniPichichero
17
USDCAD LONG POSSIBILITY SIGNALUnder current market conditions, the area near 1.3821 has been identified as a critical support zone, where the AI model detects a high-probability trade setup. From a technical perspective, the AI algorithm has recognized a clear directional bias based on recent price action patterns. Suppose the market demonstrates increased volume and price stability above key moving averages in the 1.3821 area. In that case, traders are advised to monitor for trend-continuation entry opportunities in alignment with the prevailing momentum. Profit targets are defined at 1.3855 and 1.3904, corresponding to logical technical resistance zones. These levels are designed for staged profit-taking across different trade management styles. Stop-loss should be strictly enforced at the designated level; once breached, the strategy is considered invalidated in order to limit potential downside.
Long
by FOREX_CRYPTO_MASTER
1