USDCHF – Reversal Setup Building Above 0.79 SupportUSDCHF has broken out of its steep downward channel and is now forming a potential bullish reversal base above the key support zone at 0.7940–0.7870. Price action suggests momentum could be shifting in favor of the bulls, with upside targets sitting at 0.8100 (Fibonacci 38.2%) and 0.8210 (previous resistance and 61.8% retracement).
🔍 Technical Structure:
Clean descending channel now broken.
Price holding above May–June lows, forming a potential higher low.
First target: 0.8100 zone.
Final target: 0.8210 resistance.
Stop: Below 0.7870 structure low.
🧠 Fundamentals:
USD Outlook: Bullish tilt as Fed members push back against early cuts. Markets eye July 11 CPI, which could confirm inflation stickiness and reinforce USD strength.
CHF Outlook: Weak bias, as the SNB has turned more dovish. With safe-haven demand easing and growth outlook softening, CHF is losing favor across the board.
Global sentiment: Risk appetite improving as geopolitical concerns (e.g., Strait of Hormuz, Iran) temporarily ease—removing upward pressure on CHF.
⚠️ Risk Factors:
A surprise drop in U.S. CPI this week could shift USDCHF sharply lower.
Renewed geopolitical tensions may revive CHF demand suddenly.
Fed speak and yields must remain supportive for this structure to play out.
🔁 Asset Dynamics:
USDCHF tends to lag behind DXY and USDJPY. Watch those pairs for confirmation. It can also follow moves in US10Y yields and react inversely to Gold volatility (safe-haven flow shifts).
✅ Trade Bias: Bullish
TP1: 0.8100
TP2: 0.8210
SL: Below 0.7870
Event to Watch: 🇺🇸 U.S. CPI – July 11
📌 If CPI confirms sticky inflation, USDCHF could rally toward the upper retracement zones quickly. Watch for confirmation candles near breakout.
