Usdchflongsetup
long usdchfusdchf seems to be the only pair bucking the trend. If the pair is rally so much when dollar is weak, what happens to it when dollar starts moving.
I would go long at that TL and a stop below the recent low and the horizontal support.
Target parity, its not too much to ask for is it. ?
USDCHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buyBuy above 1.0000. Stop loss at 0.9946. Take profit at 1.0100.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target as expected. We prepare to buy above 1.0000 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 1.0100 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is fast approaching support at 4% where we expect a bounce from.
Correlation analysis: EURUSD and USDCHF are negatively correlated, meaning they usually move in opposite directions. We’re expecting a drop in EURUSD which goes in line with the rise we’re expecting on USDCHF.
USDCHF testing major resistance, prepare to sellSell below 1.0100. Stoop loss at 1.0160. Take profit at 1.0000.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is now testing major resistance at 1.0100 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a drop from this level to at least 1.0000 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 97% level where we expect a drop from.
Correlation analysis: EURUSD and USDCHF are negatively correlated, meaning they usually move in opposite directions. We’re expecting a rise in EURUSD which goes in line with the drop we’re expecting on USDCHF.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. Advance Retail Sales which is a monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. We’re expecting a positive value here meaning more consumer spending and confidence, leading to strength in the USD. This would go against our bearish USDCHF view today hence is it best to exercise caution on this trade.
USDCHF remain bearish below strong resistanceSell below 1.0068. Stop loss at 1.0114. Take profit at 0.9973.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We continue to remain bearish below 1.0068 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) as we look to play the drop towards 0.9973 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is now on pullback resistance where we expect another bearish reaction to occur.
USD/CHF testing major resistance, remain bearishSell below 0.9991. Stop loss at 1.0040. Take profit at 0.9923.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is testing major resistance at 0.9991 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) where we expect a reaction from for price to drop to at least the 0.9923 support (Fibonacci retracement, short term horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 91% level and also displays bearish divergence vs price, signalling that an impending reversal is coming.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of a decrease which means a bearish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bearish USDCHF strategy view.
USDCHF dropped nicely towards our profit target, take profits anBuy above 1.0063. Stop loss at 1.0037. Take profit at 1.0137.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped nicely towards our profit target from previously. We now take our profits and look to buy instead above 1.0063 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to 1.0137 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is approaching our major 6% support where we expect to see the bounce from.
USDCHF approaching major resistance, prepare to sellSell below 1.0137. Stop loss at 1.0168. Take profit at 1.0063.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We prepare to turn bearish below 1.0137 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a further push down to 1.0063 support (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing low support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 93% level and is currently displaying bearish divergence vs price, signalling a reversal is impending.
USDCHF testing major resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.0090. Stop loss at 1.0118. Take profit at 1.0033.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.0090 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) where we expect a reaction from for a drop to 1.0033 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support).
Stochastic (21) is seeing strong resistance at the 94% level.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a rise from 1.9% to 2.1% which means we could expect a stronger USD, this goes against our bearish USDCHF view, hence, it is best to exercise caution on this trade.
The other major news event driving the USD today is the U. of Michigan Confidence. It assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. A low or falling University of Michigan Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. We’re expecting a higher value which means a stronger USD, which goes against our bearish USDCHF view today too.
USDCHF reached our profit target perfectly, time to start sellinSell below 1.0090. Stop loss at 1.0118. Take profit at 1.0033.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has reached our buying area, bounced perfectly and reached our profit target from Friday. We now turn bearish below 1.0090 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) where we expect a reaction from for a drop to 1.0033 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support).
Stochastic (21) is seeing strong resistance at the 94% level.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes against our bearish USDCHF view, hence, it is important to exercise caution on this trade.
USDCHF potential reversal from hereNice ABCD projection and swing high resistance being tested. Hopefully we can see a drop from here. We keep our stop loss small as if it breaks 1.0125 stop loss then well, all is loss :P
USDCHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to turn bearishSell below 1.0030. Stop loss at 1.0071. Take profit at 0.9961.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price shot up and reached our profit target perfectly. We now prepare to turn bearish below 1.0030 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to 0.9961 support (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing low support, horizontal overlap support).
RSI (34) is approaching major resistance at 69%.
USDCHF prepare to buy above major supportBuy above 0.9959. Stop loss at 0.9898. Take profit at 1.0030.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We prepare to turn bullish above major support at 0.9959 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 1.0030 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) is seeing strong support above the 23% level.
USDCHF testing major resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.0036. Stop loss at 1.0097. Take profit at 0.9935.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain turn bearish below 1.0036 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance) for a push down to 0.9935 (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support).
RSI (34) is seeing resistance below the 66% level and now displays bearish divergence vs price, signalling a reversal is impending.
USDCHF profit target reached, prepare to turn bearishSell below 1.0036. Stop loss at 1.0097. Take profit at 0.9935.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has reached our profit target from previously. We now turn bearish below 1.0036 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance) for a push down to 0.9935 (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support).
RSI (34) is seeing resistance below the 66% level.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving the USD today is the U. of Michigan Confidence. It assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. A low or falling University of Michigan Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. We’re expecting a lower value and a weaker forecast which means a weaker USD, which goes in line with our bullish USDCHF trade.
USDCHF remain bullish with pullback to supportBuy above 0.9958. Stop loss at 0.9900. Take profit at 1.0044.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has broken our long term descending resistance-turned-support line signalling a change in momentum to bullish. It has also made a very nice pullback and recently displayed a bounce above this descending support line. We turn bullish above 0.9958 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, pullback support) for a push up to 1.0044 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).
RSI (34) sees intermediate support above our 36% level.
USDCHF dropping nicely, remain bearishSell below 0.9958. Stop loss at 1.0027. Take profit at 0.9857.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is dropping nicely from yesterday. We remain bearish below 0.9958 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci projection, long term descending resistance, EURUSD negative correlation) for another push down to 0.9857 support (Fibonacci projection, recent swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) has reacted off our 92% resistance as expected and has good downside potential.
USDCHF at major resistance, prepare to sellSell below 0.9958. Stop loss at 1.0027. Take profit at 0.9857.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 0.9958 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci projection) for another push down to 0.9857 support (Fibonacci projection, recent swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) has reacted off our 92% resistance as expected and has good downside potential.
