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Usdcnhbreakdown

USDCNH | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWe witnessed a 1,000pips run in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purpose) and the confirmation of reversal set-up at the Breakout of Neckline (CNY 6.39500) during last week trading session is the final straw that broke the camel's back for me. Higher US bond yields and hawkish Fed expectations shine the light of hope on the Greenback and we could witness a continued bullish momentum as investors brace for the Fed's meeting next week. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) Observation: i. It has been a mix of Bearish momentum for the USD since the beginning of this year. ii. Finding a bottom twice at CNY6.36800 within the month of October 2021 - this level in recent time sharing memory for Demand (May 2021) could be an opportunity to take advantage of a short term rally. iii. Double Bottom: The appearance of an extremely bullish technical reversal pattern describing a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action may not be a coincidence. iv. And since testing the demand zone the second time, the price continued to find higher highs that culminated in a Breakout of Neckline @ CNY6.39500 on Friday to signify the potential direction majority might be heading in the coming week. v. With this development in place, it will be appropriate that we take advantage of this potential rally at the retest of Neckline. vi. The early hours/days of the new week might witness a further plunge in price to test the Neckline @ CNY6.39500 or below to incite Trend continuation. vii. Hence, above the Neckline remains a comfortable level to take a long position on this pair. NB: Please note that the narrative so far supports a temporary bullish momentum and this is so after putting into consideration the long term downtrend perspective... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 2 to 7days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week The price moved against expectation as it continues to find lower lows in the last one month (you might want to see the link below for reference purposes); As part of China’s move to create awareness of its digital Yuan, authorities in Shanghai is planning to distribute $3 million worth of the central bank-issued currency among residents of Shanghai in the form of a lottery. Coupled with the appearance of a Descending Channel, this development appears to give a level of cynosure for investors as I anticipate a risk of further decline for the USDCNH pair in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Breakdown | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) Observation: i. Since late March 2021, the price has been caught up within a Descending channel as the Greenback experiences risk of further decline in the nearest future. ii. As represented on the chart, connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals a downward trend that appears to hold following the Breakdown and retest of Y6.41000. iii. Below the Key level @ Y6.39600 remains a yardstick for entry opportunity as I look forward to a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (with the possibility of a 78.6%) of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B move @ Y6.32000 area. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 550 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 4 to 8 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWe saw the price decline and move over 1,000pips in our direction since my last publication before the rally began during last week trading session (see link below for reference purposes). Despite the general perception that the USD is on the verge of a rally due to the sudden & rapid rise that appears to be running ahead of itself during last week trading session, I am of the opinion that we are at a juncture in the market where the structure/pattern is "screaming" risk of further decline for the Greenback in the coming week(s). Even though there is room for a possible rally into the major Supply area @ Y6.5100 area, my bias still remains Bearish! Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Harmonic Pattern (AB = CD) | Breakdown | Supply & Demand Observation: i. Since the beginning of the year (2021), Buyers have found it difficult to break the Y6.51000 barrier thereby leaving clues of strong selling pressure at this zone. ii. Continuous rejection of the Y6.51000 area followed by a complete Breakdown of Key level (Y6.4600/6.4400) at the beginning of the month (Feb 2021) is a sign emphasizing the strength of sellers. iii. I am of the opinion that the rally that began on the 15th Feb 2021 is a Correction of the Impulse leg AB (expressed on the chart). iv. Last week trading session saw price close at Y6.4600 area - exactly 61.8% retracement of AB with the possibility of extending into the Major Supply zone @ 78.6% retracement (appearing to be a rejection of key level) before the decline begins. v. The setup evolving at this juncture might transpose into ABCD pattern parameters explained below; a. Leg A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is currently hovering at 61.8% (with a possible 78.6% in the future) Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move. vi. It is hereby required that we become patient and wait for a strong Reversal pattern on lower time frames for confirmations... Best of luck and Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 1,000 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3 Potential Duration: 7 to 14 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
6
USD/CNH Can Plummet FurtherThis has been plummeting for the best part of a year. It recently broke another support and is now retesting it as resistance. If we see MACD turn lower and EMA's do not cross higher then this should continue down to the next supports. Keep in mind this has been oversold on RSI since September so don't be too overconfident as there is always the chance of a correction. I have marked out 3 levels where to expect support so these can be the targets. TP 1 - 6.38367 TP 2 - 6.31515 TP 3 - 6.23602 Once this turns SL can be added just above the resistance.
Short
by olly48
USDCNH | Perspective for the new weekIt has been months since I published any speculation as our last publication on this pair saw us bag over 1,000pips ( see link below for reference purposes). China is on the brink of launching its CBDC - Digital Yuan. To facilitate its smooth launch, the digital yuan had to undergo several testings. In line with this, the government in Shenzhen, a metropolis in China, has disclosed plans to distribute 20 million digital yuan (approximately $3 million) to the city’s residents... This could be an exciting development for investors as the Yuan continue to rise against the Greenback in recent times. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Harmonic (AB = CD) Observation: i. Y6.95000 level remains my key level as this zone shall be the yardstick for selling opportunity in the coming week(s). ii. Successful Breakdown of Key level at the beginning of the new year is a sign that the Yuan will continue to appreciate. iii. Presently experiencing traders profiting from the boom that began the year, a correction into 61.8/78.6% is on my radar for a trading opportunity. iv. Suspected ABCD pattern parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is at 61.8% currently (with a possible 78.6% in the future) Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 1,000 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 10 to 20 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCNH | MY PERSPECTIVE FOR THE WEEKWe continue to enjoy profitable Bearish opportunity on this pair in the last 3 weeks as price moved over 350pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes). We might be looking forward to a last Bearish drive as the PBoC intends to promote the healthy development of offshore Yuan market. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Price has been respecting my Bearish trendline in the last couple of weeks with no structure suggesting a possible Breakout of this line soon. ii. Present structure at this phase in the market is screaming Breakdown of my Key level ! 6.93500 in the coming week(s). Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3 Potential Duration: 1 to 6 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. NirvanaForex Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
USDCNH | MY PERSPECTIVE FOR THE WEEKSince my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); price has moved over 500pips in our direction followed by a correction move with the anticipation of a further decline scattered all over the place! As USDCNH risk a further decline in the following week, a retest of my Key level is red flag to watch out for in the following week(s). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Retracement | Trendline | Breakdown | Supply & Demand Observation: i. Breakdown of my Key zone @ 6.98000 followed by a retest of this zone in the following week confirms my Bearish bias on this one. ii. Correction of Breakdown impulse leg appears to culminate at my key zone which is 61.8 retracements. iii. It is also worthy to note how selling pressure has been strong at the corridors of my Bearish Trendline since it's inception in June 2020. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 600 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:3 Potential Duration: 3 to 7 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. NirvanaForex Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
USDCNH | WEEKLY PERSPECTIVEWith over 800pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes), it appears that the Chinese Yuan is not reversing any time soon as USD/CNH risks a potential decline to the 6.9500/6.9300 area in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Harmonic (AB = CD) Observation: i. The fall of the USD since the beginning of this month (July 2020) appears to continue as we anticipate a Breakdown of my Key level 6.98000 leading to a Harmonic pattern. ii. ABCD pattern expectations: a. Impulse A-to-B expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is at 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 450 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 Potential Duration: 1 to 4 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. NirvanaForex Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCNH | WEEKLY FORECASTThe Yuan has been on the rise since the beginning of June 2020 and it does not appear that there will be a "slow-down" in the following week as the Greenback continues to depreciate. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Descending Triangle | Support & Resistance Observation: i. A structure depicted by drawing one trend line that connects a series of lower highs and a second horizontal trend line that connects a series of lows confirms our Descending Triangle . ii. This pattern clearly explains that the Demand for the USD is weakening; iii . As we anticipate price to break below our lower support @ 7.05000 (a psychological level) indicating downside momentum will become stronger in the following week(s). iii . In as much that we shall be wary of false Breakdowns at the lower support, we shall eye a further Breakdown of Daily chart Trendline with engulfing candles as comfort . iv. Please note that as the price keeps putting pressure on the 1st Key level throughout last week, a Breakdown of this level might be a zone to initiate sell order for quick gains. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 450 pips. Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 Potential Duration: 1 to 5 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and NFTI takes no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. NFT&I does not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry