$JPINTR -Japan Interest Rates (June/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
(June/2025)
source: Bank of Japan
- The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its June meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008 and aligning with market expectations.
The unanimous decision underscored the central bank’s cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical risks and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, both of which continue to pose threats to global economic growth.
Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada. Meanwhile, as part of its gradual policy normalization, the BoJ reaffirmed its plan to cut Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion each quarter through March 2026.
Starting April 2026, it will then slow the reduction to JPY 200 billion per quarter through March 2027, targeting a monthly purchase level of around JPY 2 trillion—signaling a measured but steady path away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
USDJPY
USDJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 145.13
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 145.55
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clearshort signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 144.31
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY Bearish BreakdownChart Overview
The USDJPY pair on the 2-hour chart is currently forming a descending triangle pattern — a typical bearish continuation setup.
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Key Observations:
Resistance Line (Upper Trendline): Price is repeatedly rejected from lower highs.
Support Line (Lower Horizontal): Price maintains support around the 144.00–144.20 region.
Bearish Bias: The red arrow projection suggests a breakdown from the triangle, with a potential move toward 140.00 if the lower support fails.
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Potential Bearish Scenario:
1. Break below ~144.00 confirms the triangle breakdown.
2. First target around 142.00, second target near 140.00.
3. Stop-loss ideally above 145.00 if entering short.
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Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
USDJPYHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDJPY?
On the USD/JPY chart, price is currently moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern and is approaching the upper trendline and a key resistance zone.
We expect that upon testing this resistance level, price will likely fail to break above it and enter a bearish phase, potentially falling at least to the specified support level.
For higher-confidence sell entries, it’s recommended to wait for a confirmed downside break of the lower trendline of the triangle, which would validate a bearish continuation.
Will this resistance hold and trigger a drop, or will bulls take control? Share your thoughts below! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
USDJPY - UniverseMetta - Signal#USDJPY - UniverseMetta - Signal
D1 - Formation of a triangular structure + the price is at the upper border.
H4 - It is better to wait for the trend line to break through. It is better to reduce risks if we consider entering at the market. Stop behind the maximum of wave D.
Entry: 144.367 - *144.705
TP: 143.402 - 142.094 - 140.023 - 138.706
Stop: 145.473
Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate UnchangedBank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
This morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged as widely expected. According to Forex Factory, the BOJ Policy Rate remains at 0.5%.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the following:
→ Japan’s economy is recovering moderately.
→ The Bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflationary conditions improve.
→ The situation surrounding trade tariffs remains highly uncertain.
The fact that the decision was anticipated by markets is reflected in price action on the charts.
Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart
A brief spike in volatility occurred on the USD/JPY chart this morning, but it did not significantly alter the broader structure of price movements, which in June have formed a contracting triangle pattern.
In recent days, the pair has been climbing from the lower boundary of the triangle toward the upper edge, forming a short-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue). However, in the near term, this bullish momentum may weaken as the USD/JPY rate approaches the upper boundary of the triangle, which coincides with the psychologically significant level of 145 yen to the dollar (indicated by arrows).
From a medium-term perspective, traders should watch for a potential breakout from the triangle pattern, which could trigger a meaningful trend. One possible catalyst could be news of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?USDJPY 17/06 – Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?
The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating just below the key 144.650 resistance, stuck within a tightening triangle structure. As markets await more clarity from both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed, price action is showing signs of indecision — but pressure is building.
🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview
BOJ maintains a neutral stance: Despite growing speculation of a hawkish shift, the BOJ held rates steady, providing no strong forward guidance. Markets remain cautious.
US Dollar remains resilient amid stable bond yields and expectations that the Fed may delay rate cuts, adding short-term support to USDJPY.
Geopolitical risk is on the rise: Ongoing Middle East tensions are fueling safe-haven demand for JPY, capping bullish momentum.
🔍 Technical Setup (M30 Chart)
Price is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, tightening between 144.652 resistance and 143.126 support.
EMA 13/34/89 are aligned bullishly, but EMA 200 (red) is acting as a dynamic ceiling near 144.300.
Key support zones:
144.071: Minor structural level and trendline test.
143.126: Major liquidity zone and untested demand.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
📉 Scenario 1 – Sell on Rejection at 144.652
Entry: 144.650–144.700
Stop Loss: 145.250
Take Profit: 144.071 → 143.600 → 143.126
Ideal if BOJ shifts tone or USD weakens post-Fed comments.
📈 Scenario 2 – Buy on Bullish Reaction at 143.126
Entry: 143.100–143.150
Stop Loss: 142.700
Take Profit: 143.600 → 144.071 → 144.650 → 145.200
Valid only with clear bullish confirmation on M15–M30 structure.
🧠 Final Thoughts
USDJPY is coiling tightly ahead of a potential breakout. Macro uncertainty from central banks, geopolitical instability, and upcoming CPI data make this week highly volatile. Instead of chasing, let price come to your zones and react accordingly.
🔔 Focus on structure, confirm with price action, and avoid emotional trades. Patience and discipline are key in this compression phase.
Traders, it's time to pay close attention! 🚨 USDJPY 4H Setup Alert – High-Probability Play Unfolding! 🚨
Traders, it's time to pay close attention! 🧠📊
The USDJPY pair has just perfectly tapped into a key bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the 4-hour chart — a classic move in the smart money playbook. What’s more? We've just seen a clean sweep of internal range liquidity (IRL) — a textbook liquidity grab that signals potential accumulation by larger players. 💥💼
This is not just noise — it's a significant signal. The market structure is hinting at a possible shift in momentum, and bullish pressure is building. The trap has been set, the weak hands have been shaken out, and smart money may be preparing for a strong upward push. 📈🐂
🔮 What’s the next move?
All eyes are now on the external range liquidity (ERL) — a prime liquidity pool sitting above current price levels. If price accelerates toward it, this zone could act as the magnet and the catalyst for the next explosive move upward. 🚀
🔥 Key Points to Watch:
Bullish FVG reaction ✅
IRL liquidity swept ✅
Bullish market structure forming 🏗️
ERL liquidity resting overhead — potential target 🎯
Volume profile & order flow confirming accumulation? 👀
⚠️ Stay alert and don’t chase — let the setup come to you.
Smart money might already be stepping in, and if this momentum follows through, we could be witnessing the beginning of a strong leg up.
Mark your charts and monitor closely — opportunity is knocking. 📍🕵️♂️
AUDUSD TECHNICALS AND FUNDAMENTALS DETAILED ANALYSISAUDUSD has officially broken out of a multi-week ascending triangle structure, and momentum is now building for a bullish continuation. The price is currently trading around 0.6533 after a strong breakout above the 0.6520 resistance zone. This consolidation was forming higher lows, signaling accumulation and bullish intent. The clean breakout above the horizontal resistance confirms buyers are in control. With this pattern validated, my short-term target is 0.6700–0.6750, aligning with the measured move projection.
From a macro perspective, AUD is gaining strength due to a divergence in monetary policy outlooks. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains hawkish, supported by sticky inflation data and a tight labor market, while the Federal Reserve has recently hinted at a dovish turn, acknowledging signs of economic slowdown. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar index (DXY) and rising commodity prices—especially iron ore and copper—are tailwinds for the Australian dollar. These fundamental shifts are reinforcing the bullish technical breakout.
On the 8H chart, the ascending triangle is a clear signal of bullish pressure. The zone around 0.6450–0.6520 acted as strong demand during the consolidation phase. A successful breakout retest of this zone could offer secondary entry opportunities. The risk-reward ratio is attractive, with a defined invalidation below the trendline and a target extending toward yearly highs near 0.6750.
This setup stands out as high-probability. With bullish price action, supportive fundamentals, and risk-on sentiment returning across FX majors, AUDUSD is primed for further upside. I’m holding long with conviction, expecting continuation toward the projected breakout target. This trade aligns with current market structure, trend strength, and macro drivers—perfect timing in a trending market environment.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 17, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to experience significant pressure against the US dollar (USD), showing a three-day decline and trading above the key psychological level of 145.000. This weakening is largely due to growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay raising rates until the first quarter of next year. The main reason for this delay is said to be the continuing uncertainty surrounding future US tariff policy, which could have a significant impact on global trade flows and Japan's economic growth. Moderate but steady growth in the US dollar is also contributing to the strengthening of the USD/JPY position, pushing the pair to new highs during the Asian trading session.
However, market participants are cautious about aggressive bearish bets against the yen ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. This meeting is seen as a critical event that could provide additional signals about the central bank's long-term policy outlook. Any hints of a change in tone or new assessments of the economic situation will be carefully analyzed by traders.
In addition to central bank decisions, growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may help limit deeper losses for the Japanese yen. As a traditional “safe haven,” the yen typically attracts investors during periods of global instability, which may offset some of the negative impact of interest rate differentials. In addition, the outlook for the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the growing recognition that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower borrowing costs in 2025. Expectations of future Fed rate cuts could hinder further strengthening of the US dollar and thus limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. Overall, the market remains in anticipation of key decisions that will determine the future trajectory of one of the world's most actively traded currency pairs.
Trading recommendation: SELL 144.550, SL 145.000, TP 143.600
Bearish breakout off major support?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and a breakout of this level could lead the price to drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 144.51
1st Support: 143.74
1st Resistance: 145.22
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY – Triangle Complete? Wave (v) Setup BuildingWave (iv) appears to be ending with an (e) wave tag into the 0.764 retracement.
📉 Price remains capped within the contracting triangle — watching closely for breakdown confirmation.
If this plays out, wave (v) of C could now begin unfolding with initial focus on 140.00 and below.
🧩 Structure: (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) triangle complete
📏 Final wave (e) aligns with 0.764 retracement and structural resistance
⚠️ RSI divergence + weakening momentum support the bearish scenario
USD/JPY SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USD-JPY uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 144.203 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the USD/JPY pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Stronger Dollar Pressures Yen on Geopolitical RisksThe Japanese yen fell past 144.2 per dollar on Monday, marking a second day of losses, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on increased safe-haven demand. This followed renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, with both sides targeting energy facilities and pushing oil prices higher. The rise in energy costs may reduce the chances of a near-term Fed rate cut as inflation and trade risks persist. Meanwhile, focus turns to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the inflation impact of rising oil prices amid global uncertainty.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
USDJPY Long potential setupWhat's going on?
USDJPY – Reload Zone Marked. If They Take Me Out, I’ll Be Waiting Lower.
Discipline means you don’t chase. You wait where the market must return.
Currently in 2 buys, one is an added position, then I moved my stop in from the purple line— but if those get wicked out, I’m hunting the next key demand zone just beneath 144.10. Where we'll have a textbook spring setup!
🧠 What I See:
We're forming a potential micro accumulation structure.
If the current position gets taken out, I’ll reload lower at the spring aligned with the prior reaction low + liquidity sweep zone.
🎯 Next Area of Interest:
Zone: 144.00 – 144.10
📌 Target Remains:
144.76 → 145.36
1.618 extension aligns with supply inefficiencies & range completion
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> “Stop loss isn’t failure. It’s recon. The second entry — that’s where pros feast.”
I’m not trading emotion. I’m trading plan + precision + execution.
Potential bullish reversal?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could rise from this level to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 143.79
1st Support: 139.64
1st Resistance: 148.91
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Bounce Off the 50%Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 143.74, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 144.79, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 143.29, a pullback support.
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Still keeping a close eye on a potential USD pop...Although the EUR/USD and GBP/USD popped higher late last week, I'm still keeping a close eye to stay short on the EUR/USD considering the bearish rising broadening pattern coupled with a yearly pivot point inter-median level and negative divergence on the MACD. This is all based on the daily chart.
Many factors are in play right now with what's going on between Israel and Iran along with FOMC this week and Tariffs still in play.
On a purely technical analysis point of view, I potentially expect a bullish retracement in the USD while remaining long term bearish across the board.
we'll see how this one develops.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 143.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 142.88
Why we like it
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 144.38
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Bearish continuation?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3595
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3644
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3545
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY – 4H . [[ TRIANGLE PATTERN ]]Technical Breakdown:
Symmetrical triangle pattern clearly formed with clean ABCDE wave structure.
The price has broken out from the upper resistance (trendline), confirming a bullish breakout scenario.
Next key area to watch is the supply zone near 145.800 – 146.200, where price may either:
Face resistance and retrace,
Or break through for continuation.
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🔍 Key Levels:
Support Base (Retest zone): ~143.000
Breakout Entry Trigger: Above 144.200
Supply Zone Target: 145.800 – 146.200
Invalidation Level (Break Below Triangle): <142.500
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🧠 Analysis Insight:
This is a classic triangle consolidation breakout, with price respecting both ascending and descending boundaries before thrusting upward.
Look for possible pullback retest entries before continuation to the supply zone.
Volume and momentum confirmation on breakout is key for sustainability.
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🎯 Strategy Note:
Use low-risk entry setups on breakout retest.
Ideal for scalp to swing trades, with strong risk-reward structure.
USD/JPY) Bearish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC trading point update
Technical analysis iUSD/JPY on the 30-minute timeframe, showing a rejection from resistance zones and a potential move toward lower support levels.
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Analysis Breakdown
Technical Components:
1. Resistance Zones:
Primary Resistance: Near 145.500 (upper yellow box), which has previously been rejected multiple times (red arrows).
FVG (Fair Value Gap) Resistance Level: Around 144.400, also acting as strong resistance, especially near the EMA 200.
2. Downtrend Line:
The price is moving below a downward trendline, respecting bearish structure.
Last rejection from both the trendline and FVG zone confirms selling pressure.
3. EMA 200 (144.075):
Price is hovering around this level, showing indecision.
Bearish bias remains unless price breaks and holds above it.
4. Target Zone:
A clearly marked support level around 142.543, shown as the bearish target.
Includes multiple event markers (potential news catalysts or key dates), suggesting added volatility.
5. RSI (14):
Currently near 55.23, with a prior rejection from higher RSI levels.
Bearish divergence not clear, but no overbought conditions.
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Bearish Idea Summary:
Thesis: Rejection from resistance zones + trendline + EMA suggests continuation to downside.
Expecting: Price to either:
Retest the upper resistance zone (around 145.000–145.500) and reject again, or
Break below current levels and continue lower toward 142.543.
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Trade Idea Concept:
Entry Option 1: Sell on confirmed rejection from FVG zone or upper resistance.
Entry Option 2: Sell on break and retest below 144.000.
Target: 142.543 (support zone).
Stop Loss: Above the resistance zone or trendline (e.g., >145.600).
Mr SMC Trading point
Risks to Watch:
Invalidation: Clean break and close above 145.500 would invalidate the bearish setup.
News Impact: Note the icons near the target zone – monitor economic releases around that time.
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