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#USDJPY 1HUSDJPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) Timeframe: 1-Hour (1H) Pattern: Rising Wedge A rising wedge pattern has developed on the 1-hour chart of USDJPY. This pattern is formed by two upward-sloping trendlines that converge as the price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. While the price is trending upward, the narrowing wedge suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, typically signaling a potential reversal. The rising wedge is considered a bearish pattern, as it often leads to a downside breakout once the price breaks below the lower trendline. Forecast: Sell Given the current formation, the forecast recommends a selling opportunity. The price is likely to break down from the rising wedge, leading to a potential reversal and a decline in the pair's value. A confirmed breakdown below the lower boundary of the wedge would signal further bearish momentum. Technical Outlook: Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge, where buying pressure could weaken. Support Level: The lower boundary, where a breakout would trigger a selling opportunity. Key Levels to Watch: A break below the wedge’s support line would reinforce the bearish forecast, signaling a potential downward move. Traders should look for confirmation through bearish candlestick patterns or increased selling volume to validate their short positions. Monitor for key economic indicators, particularly US dollar movements influenced by Federal Reserve policies or safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen, which could impact this pair’s direction.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
USD/JPY tries to break from triangle USD/JPY tries to break from triangle Despite release of mostly negative employment data on Friday, the currency exchange rate managed to break through 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00 and the upper-boundary of one-month long symmetrical triangle. As the pair has crossed already most of the technical indicators, the surge is expected to conitnue. On the other hand, in order to continue moving towards the weekly R1, the rate needs to break through the upper trend-line of a larger symmetrical triangle. In smaller perspective this pattern might halt the soar of the buck. However, in monthly perspective, it is still expected to continue heading upwards, thus trying to reach the boundayr of a one-year long dominant descending channel.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY moves between two SMAsUSD/JPY moves between two SMAs In the end of the previous week the currency exchange rate made a breakout from the rising wedge formation. However, because of a decreased liquidity that was caused by Christmas holidays it failed to make a rebound from the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel. At the moment, it is moving horizontally being squeezed between the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. As there are no important data releases scheduled today, such steady movement is expected to continue. In larger perspective the pair might slip back to the weekly PP because of existence of an alleged resistance zone located near the 113.35 and 113.40 marks. However, there is a need to take into account that almost 56% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to buy.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY falls to 50% Fibo at 112.45USD/JPY falls to 50% Fibo at 112.45 Due to interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the currency exchange rate got a downside momentum, which lasted until the pair reached the last combined support level formed by the weekly S1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 112.45. A successful recovery of the buck looks unlikely, as the rate will need to cross a combination of the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and another 50% retracement level near the 113.00 mark. In addition to that, the northern side is strengthened by the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. From the opposite direction, the pair, in contrast, faces no notable support levels up until the 112.10 mark. In support of this assumption, majority in pending orders in 100-pip range are set to sell.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY fails to bypass 113.68USD/JPY fails to bypass 113.68 Most of the previous trading session the currency rate spent moving towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level located at 114.03. Nevertheless, this target was not achieved due to resistance area formed near the 113.70 mark. As for today, a minor retreat back to 113.20 is possible. However, the Yen unlikely to gain much value due to pressure from the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. On the other hand, it looks like the pair is moving in a new rising wedge formation, which presupposes a breakout towards the 50% retracement level. In case of such mixed signals there is a need to turn to the overall fundamental picture, which is in favor of the buck, as markets anticipate the interest rate hike.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY heads towards 112.70 as expected USD/JPY heads towards 112.70 as expected As it was forecasted yesterday, after making a rebound from combined support set up by the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the lower trend-line of a new junior descending channel the pair started moving in the opposite direction and even managed to bypass two other moving averages. The surge happened despite release of negative employment data, which means that markets are mainly focused on situation related to tax reform and the US government shutdown. Today the upward movement is expected to continue as well, even though there is a high chance that it will be stopped, first, by resistance zone near the monthly PP and then by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00. However, a change in information landscape or aggravation of situation with North Korea might alter this generally bullish scenario.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY falls from rising wedge by 1.22% USD/JPY falls from rising wedge by 1.22% An announcement made by General Flynn that led to rapid sell-off of the buck against all major currencies perfectly matched with a breaking point of a readjusted rising wedge formation. Fortunately, bulls managed to create support near the 111.80 mark that was surrounded by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the bottom boundary of an ascending channel. As this event occurred shortly before markets got closed, new trading session the pair started straight from the pre-fall 112.80 level. Accordingly, the pair has once again returned back into boundaries of the above rising wedge pattern. Since further path to the top is obstructed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 113.00 and the weekly R1 at 113.11, the pair might actually make another turnaround. If a rebound happens, it might confirm validity of a new junior channel down.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY breaks two-week long channel downUSD/JPY breaks two-week long channel down For the first time in many weeks, reports about another ballistic missile launch made by North Korea did not led to appreciation of the Yen. The news from Asia most probably was beat by a series of positive news coming from the United States. From technical point of view, strengthening of the buck led to breakout through strong resistance formed by the upper boundary of a descending channel together with the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Although certain signs point out on formation of a new ascending channel, this view might be premature, as further path to the north is obstructed by resistance zone surrounding the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 111.65 as well the weekly PP at 111.78 that is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. In other words, today the pair is likely to plunge back to 111.20.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY slips to monthly S1 at 112.04USD/JPY slips to monthly S1 at 112.04 Contrary to trade patterns theory, the currency rate did not make a breakout from the falling wedge formation to the north. Moreover, the safe haven Yen was quoted higher despite release of disappointing trade data. For this reason, the fall of the rate was most likely based on worries about vote for the new tax reform and Merkel’s failure to form a new government. On the one hand, the fact that the monthly S1 located at the 112.04 level sustained under such heavy pressure indicates on an upcoming recovery of the buck, which will tend to reach the 112.62 mark. This scenario is partially supported by the aggregate market sentiment, which is 59% bullish. On the other hand, the falling moving averages are likely to continue pushing the pair to the bottom in the nearest future.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY moves to south as expected USD/JPY moves to south as expected As it was expected, the currency exchange managed to break below both the psychological 113.00 level as well as the weekly S1 located at 112.86. A release of better than expected American retail sales and inflation data did not ruin this achievement. In contrast, it simply accelerated a rebound from the bottom trend-line of the currently active descending channel. Generally, the exchange rate is expected to resume the movement upwards. However, there is a little chance that it will manage to climb above new combined resistance set up by the monthly PP and the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. To put it differently, the pair is expected to make another rebound and continue heading to the south. The main factor that might alter this assumption will be the upcoming US release of manufacturing data.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY trades in descending channelUSD/JPY trades in descending channel During previous trading session the currency exchange rate expectedly approached and made a rebound from the upper-boundary of the current descending channel. As a result, now the pair is expected to continue moving to the bottom. This direction is also supported by the fact that the 55- and 100-hour SMAs are located above the current market price. Nevertheless, deprecation of the Yen might be hampered if bears fail to push the pair through the monthly PP at 113.25. In addition to that, there is a need to take into account existence of a junior ascending channel that formed as a part of the larger pattern and might also obstruct the further plunge. Finally, some volatility in the markets might also be caused by a speech that will be delivered by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda at the University of Zurich.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY slips in new channel downUSD/JPY slips in new channel down As it was expected, different news coming from the United States and Asia created a downside momentum that allowed traders with bearish outlook to push the currency pair down to the 113.65 level. The further deprecation of the buck was stopped by a slope consisting from October 16 and October 31 minimums. An existence of this support barrier as well as President Trump’s arrival to China suggests that the currency rate might resume the surge despite the pressure from 200-, 100- and 55-hour SMAs. On the other hand, over the last two days the pair has formed a minor descending channel, which implies that the above moving averages should be strong enough to force the rate to make a rebound from the upper boundary of that pattern.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY approaches 113.80USD/JPY approaches 113.80 New trading week the currency rate stared in a limbo between the 200-hour SMA from the bottom and a combination of the weekly PP, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the top. Such neutral movement reflects anticipation of the Bank of Japan Policy Rate announcement. But since there is high probability that the central bank will left the monetary policy unchanged, the pair is not expected to act unpredictably. Such assumption is partially supported by presence of two extremums, which have already forced the rate to make a rebound more than once. The first is located near the 114.30 mark, while the other at the 113.34 level. A breakout through one of these barriers is likely to follow after the FOMC Statement, which will be delivered on Wednesday.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY fails to surge above 114.20Morning outlook - USD/JPY fails to surge above 114.20 Although the currency exchange rate was fluctuating in an ascending triangle, releases of better than expected American data forced the pair to stop testing the weekly R1 at 114.19 and make a breakout in the southern direction. As the rate has already passed through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, it is expected to continue the plunge. However, there are two support barriers on the way that might turnaround the pair one more time. The first one is located between the 113.25 and 113.21 marks, while the second one represents the rising 200-hour SMA. Daily chart suggests that the pair will not manage to slip below the 113.00 level, as that that area represent location of the lower support line of the dominant rising wedge pattern.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY surges to 114.00 amid Abe’s victoryMorning outlook - USD/JPY surges to 114.00 amid Abe’s victory In accordance with experts’ expectations, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party secured their seats for another term. Anticipation and confirmation of this result led to sharp appreciation of the Dollar against the Yen, allowing the pair to reach a new cellar at the 114.00 mark. This advance signified a breakthrough through the upper resistance line of large falling wedge. This fact allows assuming that the buck is going to continue strengthening at least until the clash with the monthly R1 at 114.75. But in shorter perspective the pair is likely to return back to the 113.35 mark and make a rebound from the bottom edge of a junior ascending channel that will be backed up by the rising 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY tries to reach 112.60 Morning outlook - USD/JPY tries to reach 112.60 During previous trading session, the Greenback continued to strengthen against the Yen, fluctuating in two minor ascending channels. At the moment, the turnaround of the rate seems unlikely, as the southern side is reliably secured by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs in conjunction with the weekly PP at 112.13. In contrast, the closest resistance level except for the 200-hour SMA is located only near the 112.57 and is formed by the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of one of the above patterns. In larger perspective there is a need to take into account that the pair is approaching the upper boundary of a dominant falling wedge pattern, which means that another rebound most probably is going to happen in the nearest future.
by UnknownUnicorn890690