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Usdjpyanalysis

USDJPY Analysis : Major Move Loading Towards Target Zone🕵️‍♂️ Overview The USDJPY pair is approaching a critical turning point within a well-established descending channel structure. After several months of corrective movement and internal structure shifts, the market is now displaying multiple layers of confluence pointing toward an impending major reaction or reversal. Let’s break down this chart step by step. 🧱 Market Structure Analysis 🔹 Descending Channel: The entire chart is governed by a broad descending channel, with price making lower highs and lower lows since early March. Each touch of the channel support has led to a bounce, and the price is now once again near channel resistance, creating a possible reaction zone. 🔹 Volume Contraction Phase: In the mid-section of the chart, we observe volume contraction, indicating liquidity drying up and buyers/sellers entering a phase of uncertainty. This contraction is typical in accumulation or re-accumulation phases, which often precede strong impulsive moves — exactly what followed here. 🧩 Structural Breaks and Trendline Clarity 🔸 Minor Break of Structure: A recent high was taken out in early July, marking a minor break of structure (BOS), showing the first signs of bulls taking short-term control. 🔸 Major Break of Structure: A more significant high (marked on the chart) has also been broken, confirming a major BOS — this implies institutional positioning or a shift in market sentiment. 🔸 Trendline Break – Extra Confirmation: The bullish push came after breaking a clean internal trendline, which acted as diagonal resistance. Once this trendline broke, price aggressively accelerated upward — this is a classic market maker cycle (MMC) Phase 2 (expansion) move. 📍 Confluence at Next Reversal Zone (149.00 – 150.00) The green highlighted zone is the next potential area for bearish pressure to return, based on: Key Supply Zone: Historical area where sellers previously dominated. Channel Resistance Confluence: Top of the descending channel aligns with this zone. Psychological Level: 150.00 is a major psychological round number — often attracts profit-taking and institutional activity. Fibonacci (if plotted): Likely 78.6% – 88.6% retracement from last swing high. Overextended Rally: Price has rallied strongly since early July with very little correction — it’s approaching exhaustion. 🔄 Market Maker Cycle (MMC) Alignment This move perfectly reflects the Market Maker Cycle: Accumulation: During volume contraction phase. Manipulation: Fakeouts near channel support to trap shorts. Expansion: Break of structure + trendline, aggressive rally. Distribution (Next): Likely to occur at the 149–150 zone with a sharp rejection. 🧠 Trader’s Plan – What to Look For 📈 If Bullish: Targets: 148.80 to 149.80 zone Hold until rejection signs (bearish candles, volume spikes, divergences) SL: Below recent swing low/trendline (~146.00) 📉 If Bearish (After Rejection): Watch for: Strong bearish engulfing candle or shooting star RSI/MACD divergence (not shown but suggested) Break of short-term ascending trendline Targets: Back toward 145.50 or mid-channel (dynamic) 🔖 Summary USDJPY is showing clear signs of bullish exhaustion near the upper channel resistance and major structure levels. If price respects this zone (149–150), expect a healthy corrective leg or full reversal. Multiple layers of technical evidence, including structure breaks, trendline breach, and MMC phases, are aligning for a high-probability play. This is a textbook setup for experienced traders watching key zones with proper confirmations.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
DeGRAM | USDJPY fixed above the descending channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Dollar-yen has punched through the 16-month descending channel top and twice retested it as support (false-break tags), carving a rising trend line that now guides price away from 144.90. ● Inside the break zone a smaller pennant is forming; a 4 h close above 147.18 completes the pattern and activates the channel-height target at 150.80 near the November swing cap. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● US 2-yr yields pushed to a three-month high after hotter CPI core-services and Barkin’s “inflation progress has stalled”, while the BoJ July minutes flagged only “gradual” QT—widening the policy gap and reviving carry demand for yen shorts. ✨ Summary Long 145.2-146.2; pennant break >147.18 targets 150.80. Bias void on a 4 h close below 142.80. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
USDJPY – Key Support Bounce with Macro TailwindsUSDJPY is bouncing off a key trendline and 61.8% Fib zone (143.25–143.60) with confluence across multiple JPY crosses (EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY). This area has historically triggered strong upside momentum, and the current setup aligns with both technical structure and macro drivers. 📊 Fundamentals Supporting the Move: ✅ US Yields Stable: US10Y is holding above 4.20%, keeping USDJPY supported. If yields push back toward 4.30%, expect USDJPY to retest 145.30 and potentially 147.80. ✅ BoJ Dovish: Japan shows no shift in policy. Despite weak Tankan data, BoJ remains patient, and no meaningful rate hike or YCC change is expected soon. ✅ USD Macro Resilience: Core PCE held firm at 2.6%. Focus now shifts to ISM Services PMI (Wed) and NFP (Fri). Markets are still pricing a soft landing – supporting risk-on and a stronger USD. ✅ JPY as a Fading Safe Haven: Even with geopolitical headlines (Trump tariff tensions, Taiwan, Middle East), JPY demand remains weak. Traders are favoring USD and Gold over JPY as risk hedges. ⚠️ Risks to Watch: Dovish US Data Surprise: Weak NFP or ISM could drag yields down and trigger USDJPY reversal. Verbal or Actual BoJ Intervention: If we approach 148.50–150, Japan may step in again. Geopolitical Escalation: Any sharp risk-off could trigger safe haven demand for JPY, though this has underperformed recently. 🔎 Correlation Dynamics: 📈 USDJPY is leading JPY crosses like EURJPY and AUDJPY. The recent bounce started simultaneously across the JPY complex, with USDJPY slightly ahead. 📉 If US yields drop or risk sentiment shifts, USDJPY may lag gold or bonds but eventually catch up. 🧠 Trading Plan: 📍 Entry Zone: 143.30–143.60 (trendline + Fib confluence) 🎯 Target 1: 145.30 (38.2% Fib) 🎯 Target 2: 147.80 (channel resistance) 🛑 Invalidation: Daily close below 141.50 with US yields breaking down 📅 Upcoming Events to Watch: Wed July 3: ISM Services PMI (key for USD reaction) Fri July 5: US Non-Farm Payrolls + Average Hourly Earnings JPY Risk: Verbal intervention possible near 148+ 🧭 Summary: USDJPY is positioned for a bullish continuation, backed by: Rising yields Resilient US macro Weak JPY fundamentals Technical structure respecting trendline support Short-term traders can target the 145–147.80 range ahead of NFP, with a tight eye on yield and risk sentiment. 📌 If this analysis helps, drop a like and follow for more real-time macro-technical breakdowns. Stay nimble ahead of NFP! 🧠📈
Long
by ultreosforex
17
USD/JPY) back down Trend Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) on the 3-hour timeframe, anticipating a rejection from a descending trendline resistance and a move down toward key support levels. --- Analysis Overview: Trend Bias: Bearish correction expected Structure: Price is reacting at a descending trendline, which has held as resistance on multiple occasions. Indicators: EMA 200 (144.756): Price is currently above, but projected to break below it. RSI (14): Overbought at ~74, signaling potential for a reversal. --- Key Technical Components: 1. Descending Trendline Resistance: Price is approaching/has touched a well-respected downtrend line, marked by three strong rejections (red arrows). This trendline has consistently capped bullish moves, indicating strong seller interest. 2. Bearish Reversal Expectation: The projected path suggests a potential fake breakout or double-top, followed by a steep decline. A two-stage drop is anticipated, with price first targeting the EMA 200 zone, then extending lower. 3. Target Points: First target: Around 145.244, near EMA 200. Final target: 143.048, aligning with the key support zone (highlighted in yellow), where price previously bounced. 4. RSI (14): Currently overbought (73.29), signaling a likely retracement. Prior peaks at this level led to notable corrections. --- Trade Setup Idea: Parameter Level Entry Near current price (~146.85) if bearish pattern confirms Stop-Loss Above trendline (~147.30–147.50) Target 1 145.24 (EMA 200 zone) Target 2 143.05 (Support zone) This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity if resistance holds. --- Risk Factors: Upcoming economic events could trigger volatility (news icon marked). A clean breakout and close above the trendline (~147.50+) would invalidate this bearish thesis. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary: The analysis suggests a potential USD/JPY reversal from a descending trendline, supported by overbought RSI and prior rejections. The bearish projection targets a move toward 143.048, following a dip below the EMA 200 level at 145.244. Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
4
DeGRAM | USDJPY formed the triangle📊 Technical Analysis ● Price defended the 142.80 confluence (triangle base + channel median), printing a bullish hammer and reclaiming the short-term trendline; structure now forms an ascending triangle inside the broader consolidation. ● Momentum is rising toward 146.50 – the pattern’s 1:1 swing and prior supply – with the next objective the upper triangle wall at 148.10. Invalid if candles fall back under 142.80. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Rebound in US ISM manufacturing and Fed minutes hinting “no near-term cuts” lifted 2-yr yields, while weak Japanese wage growth keeps the BoJ patient. The widening policy gap revives USD/JPY bid. ✨ Summary Long 143.4-144.1; targets 146.5 then 148.1. Exit on a 4 h close below 142.8. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
USDJPY h4 strongly downBearish Expectation Disruption / Bullish Counterpoint Resistance (147.5) Rejection and drop Breakout and continuation toward 148.5+ Breakout FVG Fakeout and reversal True breakout — bullish trend continues Bullish Zone (~144) Clean break below Accumulation zone, strong buying interest may emerge Target (~143) Next leg down May not be reached if price stabilizes above 145 Support (~142.5) Final drop destination Could become irrelevant if trend flips decisively bullish Original Assumption: Market is behaving in isolation from fundamentals. Disruption: If U.S. data (e.g., strong NFP, CPI, or Fed commentary) supports rate hikes, USD/JPY may remain bid and breakout to 148+ instead of reversing. Watch For: Strong dollar narrative or dovish BOJ language.
Short
by Zara_FVG
21
USDJPY Price Accumulated|Time For Bullish Distribution|Setupsfx|The price has accumulated nicely and is now distributing. We have three targets in mind, but set your own based on your analysis. Our approach is purely technical, but also includes a basic fundamental approach. This analysis concludes over 1500 pips and is a swing move. Please use this analysis as educational purposes only, as it does not guarantee that price will move exactly as predicted. If you like our idea, please consider liking and commenting on it. Good luck and trade safely! Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
16
USDJPY1. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern This is a classic bullish reversal pattern. You've marked the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, and the neckline is broken to the upside. Breakout confirms trend reversal from bearish to bullish. 2. Break of Trendline A long-term bearish trendline was clearly broken. Price broke above it with momentum, showing bullish strength. 3. Fib Confluence Entry area is around the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone. Combined with support zone = high-probability reversal area. 4. Change of Character (CHoCH) CHoCH confirms that the market has shifted structure from lower highs/lows to potential higher highs/lows. You can see the higher low (HL) forming already. 5. Strong Bullish Candles The breakout move is supported by strong bullish candles, showing buying pressure. We're entering on a confirmed bullish reversal – Inverted Head & Shoulders breakout, trendline breach, and bullish market structure shift. Fib zone confluence seals the setup. Buy-side pressure is in control.
Long
by AzdrenBytyqi
USD/JPY Range- weekly chart setupUSD/JPY abhi ek strong range-bound structure mein trade kar raha hai jisme clearly defined support aur resistance zones dikhai de rahe hain. Chart par price 144.50 ke aas paas consolidate kar raha hai, jahan se dono directions mein breakout ka potential bana hua hai. 📉 Resistance Zone: 145.80 – 146.20 📈 Support Zone: 142.30 – 142.70 🔍 Current Price: 144.50 (As of July 6, 2025) 🧠 Trading Scenarios: 🔽 Bearish Scenario: Agar price 145.80 zone se reject hota hai, to short-term selling pressure dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jisme target 1: 143.50 aur target 2: 142.50 ka ho sakta hai. 🔼 Bullish Scenario: Agar price support zone (142.50) se strong bounce karta hai, to range ke upper bound (145.80) tak ka upside move expected hai. Breakout ke baad extended target 147.00+ tak ho sakta hai. 📊 Timeframe: 4H 📍 Setup Type: Range Trade | Mean Reversion | Breakout Watch 💬 Idea by: Liquidity_Gold_FX 🔔 Follow for more FX setups and updates.
Long
by Liquidity_Gold_FX
19
USDJPY 4-Hour Technical Analysis (Smart Money Concept Breakdown)📈 Overall Market Structure Overview: The chart reflects a multi-phase Smart Money playbook, consisting of: Bullish channel structure Breakout followed by liquidity sweep Supply zone flip to demand Price mitigation and structure shift Anticipated reaction zone for upcoming move 🔎 Phase-by-Phase Analysis: 🧱 1. Ascending Channel Formation Price was moving upward in a controlled bullish ascending channel, suggesting institutional accumulation with planned distribution above highs. The channel breakout was the first significant liquidity event, where early breakout traders were baited. 💧 2. Fakeout and Supply Interchange into Demand (Ellipse Zone) Once the channel broke, price sharply reversed, retracing into a previous supply zone. However, institutions defended this zone, flipping it into a demand area. This behavior, marked with the blue ellipse, signals “Supply Interchange in Demand” – a core SMC concept. Here, orders were absorbed Liquidity was trapped below A bullish push confirmed institutional intent 🎯 3. Previous Target Hit – Completion of Bullish Leg Price made a strong rally from the demand zone, hitting the previous target near 147–148 zone. This bullish leg created a Major Break of Structure (BOS) confirming bullish dominance at that phase. ⚠️ 4. Distribution Begins: Shift in Momentum After reaching the Major BOS area, price failed to hold higher levels. A decline followed, indicating distribution by smart money. The reaction was sharp and consistent, creating lower highs, signaling weakness. 🔄 5. Minor CHoCH Formation – Early Reversal Signal A Minor Change of Character (CHoCH) occurred around the 144.000–143.000 area. This is a key transition, where smart money transitions from bullish intent to potential bearish delivery. 📦 6. Next Target Zone – Bullish POI (Point of Interest) The chart identifies a next target demand zone around 141.800–141.200, marked in green. This zone: Holds unmitigated demand Sits below a recent liquidity pool Aligns with past support This is where Smart Money could re-enter, offering a long opportunity if a bullish CHoCH or BOS forms from that zone. 📊 Trade Scenarios & Forecast: 🔻 Bearish Short-Term Play (Sell Setup): If price respects current resistance (144.500–145), and a lower high forms: Short entry opportunity Target: 142.000–141.200 demand zone Confirmation: Strong bearish candle, CHoCH below minor support 🔺 Bullish Reversal Play (Buy Setup): At the demand zone: Look for bullish reaction + CHoCH or BOS Long entry potential Target: Retest of 144.000 or even 147.000 if liquidity allows 🔐 Smart Money Tactics in Play: Liquidity Engineering: Price trapped both bulls (at highs) and bears (below ellipse zone) Supply into Demand Flip: A classic trap where supply becomes a launchpad for bullish delivery Minor CHoCH: Early signal of intent change Next POI (Point of Interest): Potential reaccumulation zone below major liquidity grab 🧠 Educational Takeaway: This analysis illustrates: Why breakouts are often traps without confirmation How to identify real institutional zones The role of CHoCH/BOS in planning ahead Importance of waiting for price to come to your levels, not chasing ⚠️ Risk & Caution: News catalysts can cause deviation from technical levels Always use stop loss and proper risk management SMC is about patience and precision, not prediction ✅ Summary: USDJPY is showing early signs of a smart money distribution and a potential pullback toward demand. Watch closely for confirmation at the key zone (141.800–141.200) before engaging long. Until then, short setups on rallies may be favorable.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
1
Unlocking the Bull Vault: USD/CAD Heist Setup🕵️‍♂️💼 The Loonie Vault Raid: USD/CAD Buy Blueprint 💰🔐 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 To All Currency Conquerors, Market Raiders & Profit Seekers 💸🚁🕶️ Welcome to another Thief Trading Style playbook, crafted for bold traders ready to infiltrate the Forex vaults with precision. 📜 Mission Brief – The Loonie USD/CAD Buy Op: Using a blend of 🔥strategic market intel🔥 (technical + fundamental), we’re gearing up for a targeted buy operation. The goal? Extract max profits and vanish before the guards show up. 🏃‍♂️💨 🎯 ENTRY POINT – Authorized Access Only! 🎯 Buy Zone #1: Around 1.37000+ 🎯 Buy Zone #2: Around 1.36400 (Caution: This is Market Maker Trap turf – approach wisely) ⏳ Wait for pullback signs & reversal confirmation before execution – The real pros enter when the crowd hesitates. 🛑 STOP LOSS – Backup Plan if Things Go South 🧠 Wise raiders always have an exit route! 🔹 SL Strategy 1: Nearest Swing Low on 2H timeframe (e.g., 1.36000) 🔹 SL Strategy 2: Institutional Buy Zone SL (1.34000 or deeper) 💡 Position sizing and risk tolerance are your call, but don’t skip this shield. 🏴‍☠️ TARGET – Where the Loot Lies 🎯 Aim for 1.39500 or exit early if the heat rises (volatility spike/consolidation stalls) 💼 Remember, the best thieves know when to grab the bag and bounce. 💹 Scalpers Advisory – Shortcuts to Riches 👀 Only ride the bullish tide. 💰 If you’ve got capital muscle, dive in. If not, roll with the swing crew. 📌 Trail that SL like a pro – don’t get caught slippin’. 📊 Why We Strike Now – The Big Picture USD/CAD is showing bullish signs backed by: ✔️ Macro shifts ✔️ COT reports ✔️ Sentiment shift ✔️ Intermarket synergy ✔️ Smart money positioning 🔗 Full intel available – KlicK & explore! ⚠️ High Alert: News & Chaos Protocol 🚨 News drops = alarm bells. To survive: 📌 Avoid fresh trades during major releases 📌 Use trailing SL to protect your gains 📌 Don’t overexpose – one vault at a time 💖 Support the Crew – Hit BOOST Your boost helps fund the next mission. Show love, share strength, and become part of the Forex Heist Syndicate 🕵️‍♂️💵💼 One chart at a time, we rewrite the game. 🎯 Stay locked in – next mission drops soon... 🤑💻🚀
Long
by The-Thief
USD/JPY) Back support level Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY pair using a combination of price action, resistance/support levels, and indicators. Here's a breakdown of the idea behind the analysis: --- Chart Breakdown (2H - USD/JPY) 1. Key Zones: Resistance Level (Yellow Box at Top): Price has previously been rejected from this zone multiple times. Recent bearish wicks and aggressive sell-offs are marked by red arrows—showing strong seller interest. Support Level / Target Point (Bottom Yellow Box): Price has found strong buying interest around 142.142. This zone is the anticipated downside target if the bearish scenario plays out. 2. Bearish Bias Justification: Liquidity Grab / Fakeout (labeled “fug”): The price briefly broke above the smaller resistance block but quickly reversed. This "fake breakout" often traps buyers, strengthening the bearish case. EMA 200 (Blue Line): Price is currently near or slightly under the 200 EMA (144.553), suggesting a potential rejection area aligning with resistance. RSI Indicator: RSI shows divergence and has not confirmed a bullish breakout. The values (56.77 and 42.82) indicate loss of bullish momentum. 3. Projection (Black Lines): The black zig-zag lines represent a forecasted drop to the support level. Suggests a short setup near 144.50–145.00 with targets near 142.14. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary: Bias: Bearish Entry Zone: Near resistance area (144.50–145.00) Target: 142.142 (support zone) Invalidation: Strong break above 145.00 and hold Confirmation: Rejection from resistance with bearish candle pattern --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
5
USD/JPY) bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's a clear breakdown of the idea presented: --- Overview of the Setup Current Price: 144.620 EMA 200 (Blue Line): 144.973 – price is trading below the EMA, indicating bearish momentum. Resistance Zone: Around 145.000 – 145.500 Support/Target Zone: Around 142.799 RSI Indicator: ~51.11 – neutral zone (not overbought or oversold) --- Interpretation of Chart Structure 1. Resistance Level: Price tested the resistance zone and sharply rejected it. This zone has held multiple times historically, making it strong. 2. EMA 200 as Resistance: Price rejected just under the EMA, further confirming downside pressure. 3. Bearish Flag / Rising Wedge Breakdown: There is a visible bearish continuation pattern (likely a rising wedge or bear flag). Price is projected to break down from this pattern, continuing the downtrend. 4. Measured Move Projection: Previous drop of ~230 pips (-1.5%) is mirrored for the next expected move. The same size move projects the price to reach the target zone around 142.799. 5. Support/Target Zone: Marked as the final take-profit zone. Corresponds with historical demand and likely buyer interest. --- Trade Idea Summary Bias: Bearish Entry Idea: After breakdown confirmation below wedge structure or rejection from resistance zone. Target: 142.799 Stop-Loss Consideration: Above the resistance zone (~145.500) or just above the recent swing high. Confirmation: Breakdown of rising wedge + below EMA + repeated resistance rejections. Mr SMC Trading point --- Key Considerations Upcoming News Events (Three Icons): These symbols signal potential USD or JPY volatility, so watch out for data releases that could disrupt the pattern. RSI Neutral: RSI is not yet oversold, allowing room for more downside before hitting exhaustion levels. False Breakouts Possible: Price may fake a break upward before continuing lower – wait for strong candle confirmation if entering a trade. plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
7