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Usdjpyanalysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen against its US counterpart for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and reacted weakly to the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was largely unchanged. Aggressive comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida on Tuesday keep the door open for further policy normalisation and continue to serve as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be threatened by weaker US consumer inflation data released on Tuesday, which raised the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least twice this year. This is seen as another factor putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, optimism about a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China continues to keep the market upbeat. This may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the diverging policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed indicate that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding Yen lies to the upside and support the prospects of further downside for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any market-relevant economic data from the US, traders will focus on speeches from influential FOMC members. In addition, broader risk sentiment may give the currency pair some momentum. Trading recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 147.30, TP 146.10
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY) Bullish reversal analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update Technical Analysis USD/JPY suggests a bullish outlook based on the following key technical components: 1. Buying Zone: The chart identifies a green rectangular area labeled "BUYING ZONE" just above the 200 EMA (blue line at 144.079). This implies that price retracement into this zone could be an opportunity to go long (buy). 2. Support & Resistance: Support Level: Clearly marked around 143.00, showing a previous demand area. Resistance Level: Around the 145.800–146.000 region, price previously rejected here. 3. Bullish Pattern: The curved arrow suggests the formation of a bullish continuation pattern (possibly a cup & handle or flag), with the expectation of a breakout toward the upside. 4. Target Point: The target is projected at 148.153, implying a potential move of approximately 291.7 pips from the buying zone—suggesting a favorable risk-reward ratio. 5. RSI Indicator: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 55, not in the overbought zone, indicating more room for upside movement. Mr SMC Trading point Summary of Idea: Strategy: Buy near 145.00–145.20 (Buying Zone). Stop Loss: Just below the 200 EMA or the lower bound of the green zone. Take Profit: Near the 148.153 target. Confirmation: Wait for bullish confirmation/candlestick reversal in the buying zone. Pelas support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
8
USDJPY Trade Plan: Long from Imbalance Zone on Bullish BOSUSDJPY Trade Idea & Analysis Chart Context: The 1H USDJPY chart shows a strong bullish impulse, followed by a consolidation and a potential retracement into a clear imbalance zone (highlighted between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, around 146.76–146.32). The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows. Market Fundamentals & Sentiment (as of May 2025): USD Strength: The US dollar remains supported by persistent inflation and the Fed’s hawkish stance, with markets pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes or a prolonged period of higher rates. JPY Weakness: The Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no immediate signs of tightening. This divergence keeps upward pressure on USDJPY. Risk Sentiment: Global risk appetite is stable, favoring carry trades and supporting USDJPY upside. Trade Plan: Look for a retrace into the imbalance zone (146.76–146.32). Enter long on a confirmed bullish break of structure (BOS) on lower timeframes. Target the recent swing highs (148.65 and above), with a stop loss below the retracement low. Not financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
USD/JPY Bullish Setup – Demand Zone Buy Opportunity Toward 151.5🔍 Chart Overview (4H Timeframe): Currency Pair: USD/JPY Trend: 📈 Uptrend EMA 70: 🔴 (144.776) – Price is trading above it = Bullish Bias --- 🟦 Demand Zone 📌 Zone: 144.804 – 146.324 💡 What it means: Strong buying interest expected here 🟢 Support line + EMA = Confluence zone! --- ✅ Entry Point: 📍 Between: 146.324 – 146.423 🎯 Best area for long (buy) position 📊 Wait for a pullback to this area before entering --- ❌ Stop Loss: 📉 Below demand zone 🔻 Range: 144.705 – 144.776 🛡️ Helps protect against unexpected drop --- 🎯 Target Point: 📈 151.500 🟩 Big reward area 🔥 Previous resistance zone = Ideal profit-taking point --- 🧭 Summary: ✅ Entry: 146.324 ❌ Stop: 144.776 🎯 Target: 151.500 Risk-to-Reward: Excellent!
Long
by Jameshead007
8
USD/JPY 4H Analysis: Demand Zone Re-Test Before Bullish Continua1. Trend Channel 🔼 Uptrend: The pair is moving inside an ascending channel. ▪️ Support: Lower boundary of the channel. ▪️ Resistance: Upper boundary of the channel. 2. Recent Price Action 🔴 Pullback: After reaching the top at 146.199, price is retracing. 📉 Price is now heading toward the Demand Zone. 3. Demand Zone 🟦 Demand Zone (142.405 – 143.180): This zone could act as a strong support Buyers might step in here Watch for bullish patterns or rejections around this area 4. EMA 70 📏 EMA 70 (143.568) is slightly below current price (143.949) — this may offer temporary support/resistance. 5. Target 🎯 Target Point: 146.194 If price bounces from demand zone, this is the next bullish target. Possible Scenario 1. 🔽 Price dips into the Demand Zone 2. 🟢 Bullish bounce → Confirm with candlestick signals 3. 🚀 Upside move targeting 146.194
Long
by Jameshead007
10
USDJPY BEARISH SETUP ONFIRMED.?USD/JPY Bearish Scenario Analysis Trend: Downtrend (bearish bias confirmed by lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe) Current Price Action: After a failed attempt to sustain above the 148.200 resistance level, USD/JPY has shown rejection patterns such as bearish engulfing candles and increasing selling volume. Price is now breaking below key moving averages (e.g., 50 and 100 EMA), confirming momentum shift to the downside Key Technical Levels Resistance: 148.200 – Strong supply zone, multiple rejections seen here. 1st Bearish Target: 143.900 – Recent swing low and minor support zone; break below confirms bearish continuation. 2nd Bearish Target: 141.600 – Major horizontal support from previous consolidation area. Support: 140.100 – Long-term support level; likely to attract strong buying interest or signal a trend exhaustion. Bearish Scenario Setup 1. Entry Zone: Between 147.500 - 147.800 (pullback/retest of broken structure) 2. Stop Loss: Above 148.500 (just beyond the resistance zone to avoid false breakouts) 3. Take Profit Targets: TP1: 143.900 TP2: 141.600 4. Bonus Target (extended move): 140.100 – if selling momentum continues and macro conditions favor JPY strength.
Short
by Zickey_11
3
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which ofThe MACD indicator shows that the DIFF line has formed a golden cross with the DEA line, and the red histogram has continuously expanded, indicating that the upward trend has been established. At the same time, the RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold area to the level of 59.777, suggesting that there is still room for the exchange rate to rise. It is worth noting that the CCI indicator has broken through the 200 level, implying that there is a possibility of a short-term technical correction. In terms of volatility analysis, the Bollinger Bands have widened. The upper band is at 147.845 and the lower band is at 139.942, indicating that market volatility is increasing. Currently, the exchange rate is moving within an upward-sloping triangular consolidation pattern. 150 constitutes an important resistance level in the near term, while 146 forms a key support level. In the short term, if the exchange rate can effectively hold above the 148 mark, it will further confirm the continuation of the upward trend. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USDJPY will it go higher?Hello everyone! I want share my idea about USDJPY. last few week we saw USD weaker than other Currencies, but now we see Trend Change after test 140.000 LVL. If we look at JPY index we will see price moving with strong seller but still uptrend, i think JPY will move lower and dollar will still dominant in the race. If we look at technical with simple Support/Resistance strategy price going higher it broke some resistance levels and had pretty nice reactions from supports i think price will brake easy 140 LVL and will go to check 151 Resistance. Soon we will have China and America meeting which will be about rates, i think it will affect at dollar index and it is starting place which is signal the meeting will go well. FOR COLLABORATION TEXT ME DM! ALWAYS MAKE YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
Long
by elmakacho
USDJPY Buy Opportunity Above 143.525Entry Point: 143.525 (unchanged) Stop Loss: 141.847 (unchanged) Target Point One (TP1): 145.063 (unchanged) Final Target (TP2): Now refined to 147.883 instead of 147.894 — a small, precise update. 📈 Pattern and Structure: Cup-and-handle formation still intact, indicating a continuation pattern. Support confirmation at the 143.5 zone, showing a potential base for a bullish reversal. The chart shows strong upside projection toward the resistance band near 147.8–148.0, highlighted with the upper purple zone. 📊 Risk-Reward Profile: Risk (Entry to SL): 143.525 – 141.847 = 1.678 Reward (Entry to TP2): 147.883 – 143.525 = 4.358 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 4.358 / 1.678 ≈ 2.6R — a favorable risk/reward setup. 🧠 Trade Notes: Entry is slightly above a demand zone. First target is conservative, near a known resistance. Final target aligns with prior highs and the broader ascending wedge’s upper bound. Timing suggests the bullish push may unfold over the next few sessions (likely May 6–8 range, as curved arrow indicates a rounded retest/bounce scenario)
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
13
USD/JPY Faces FVG ResistanceThe USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows a clear bearish setup forming after a recent rejection from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around 145.923, indicating potential distribution and the start of a corrective move. The price is trading below the upper boundary of the ascending channel and has started to show bearish intent after multiple rejections from the FVG resistance zone. The structure appears to be forming a corrective ABC wave or the beginning of a deeper Wave 4 correction within a larger Elliott Wave count. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent low at 142.405 to the high at 145.923 have been plotted to identify potential support zones. Target 1: 144.726 Target 2: 144.283 Stop loss: 145.850
by Money_Dictators
USDJPY BREAKOUT BULLISH PATTERN Technical Pattern Analysis Current Trend: USD/JPY has shown a strong bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This indicates increasing buying pressure and positive momentum. Possible Bullish Patterns Observed: Ascending Triangle: This is a bullish continuation pattern often indicating that buyers are gaining strength before a breakout. Bullish Flag: A short-term consolidation that generally resolves in the direction of the previous trend (upward). Breakout Above Resistance: Recent candles show breakout attempts above key resistance zones, validating bullish sentiment. Key Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Support: 144.50–145.00 1st Resistance / Target Zone: 146.400 2nd Resistance / Target Zone: 147.900 Final Resistance / Target Zone: 150.200
Long
by Zickey_11
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 9, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses part of the previous day's correction from a one-week high. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) March meeting showed that the central bank remains open to further tightening if the economic and price outlook persists. This, along with a rebound in safe-haven demand, is lending support to the Japanese Yen, which, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling, is keeping the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 round figure. Optimism over the start of trade talks between the US and China, which will take place this week in Switzerland, is fading rather quickly amid uncertainty over how a new deal between the world's two largest economies might be structured. In addition, US President Donald Trump has denied that he will reduce tariffs against China, dampening hopes of a speedy resolution to the trade war between the world's two largest economies. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks kept investors on edge and proved to be the key factor that influenced the yen's growth amid the general weakening of the dollar. Trading recommendation: SELL 145.80, SL 146.00, TP 144.90
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceThe hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the market's optimistic sentiment regarding a potential Sino-US trade agreement have driven the overall strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate cuts and the absence of hints of near-term rate cuts have enhanced the attractiveness of the US dollar, providing support for the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has reversed downward from the zero line, which coincides with the reversal on the daily chart, forming a strong reversal pattern. The price is testing the support of the MACD line and the key level of 143.45. If the daily candlestick closes below the 143.45 level, it will open the path for a decline towards 141.70 and even the lower boundary of the price channel near 139.50. If the closing price is higher than yesterday's high of 144.00, it is likely to rise towards 144.75, with a long-term target of 145.91. Considering the actual closing price of 145.0930, the upward scenario has been activated. In addition, the MACD indicator shows that the bullish momentum has been somewhat restored, but it is still in the initial stage of the rebound. The RSI indicator remains above 45 and has not entered the strong area, indicating that the current exchange rate is in the stage of consolidation and accumulation of momentum. Although there has been a certain upward movement in the short term, the overall strength of the bulls and bears has not reached an obviously strong state. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Short
by HilaryBloomer
1
Yen rally ends, markets eyes Fed rate decision and BoJ minutesCurrently, the market sentiment is rather complex. On the one hand, some traders are betting on the restart of negotiations by the US side, believing that policy uncertainty will be alleviated with the convening of the meeting. On the other hand, from the perspective of the capital market, the market's concern about the medium - to - long - term depreciation trend of the US dollar is increasing. In particular, the " $2.5 trillion capital withdrawal" view proposed by the Eurizon SLJ report, if realized, will substantially suppress the US dollar. In the short term, if the USD/JPY exchange rate fails to hold above the 145.5 level, the rebound may come to an end, and the price may test the two key support levels of 143.00 and 141.650. Especially if the Fed's policy language continues to be dovish, the exchange rate may decline further. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Short
by HilaryBloomer
USD/JPY) Bullish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe, and it presents a bullish continuation setup. Here's a breakdown of the key elements and the idea behind the analysis: --- 1. Ascending Channel Formation The price is trading within an ascending channel, suggesting a controlled uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows confirm the trend structure. 2. Key Support and Fair Value Gap (FVG) There’s a well-identified support level where price has bounced before (highlighted in yellow). A Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone is marked slightly above the support level, which could act as a short-term demand area. Price is currently pulling back into this zone, potentially setting up a buying opportunity. 3. EMA 200 Support The 200 EMA (~143.78) is acting as dynamic support just below the current price. If price drops further, this level may offer strong technical support. 4. RSI Momentum RSI is above 50 (currently 56.37), supporting the bullish trend and showing room for continued upside. 5. Target Point The chart anticipates a bounce off the support/FVG zone and a rally toward the upper boundary of the channel, targeting 147.153. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary of the Idea: This is a bullish continuation setup within an uptrend channel. The analyst expects a potential long entry around the FVG/support zone, with a target at the channel top (147.15). Confluence from the EMA 200, RSI, and previous structure supports this bullish bias. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
15
Analysis of the Latest SignalsRecently, the situation in Ukraine and Russia has remained tense, and the conflict in the Middle East has escalated (such as the confrontation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen), prompting funds to flow to traditional safe - haven currencies. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained a dovish stance last week and did not clarify the interest - rate - hike path, which limited the upside potential of the yen. Although inflation in Japan persists and wage growth is strong (the largest increase in 34 years), the BoJ's cautious attitude towards economic recovery has led the market to lower the interest - rate - hike expectations for June and July, putting pressure on the yen. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USDJPY Retest of Supply Zone Before Bearish ContinuationUSDJPY pair is reacting to key supply around 143.70–144.00 but shows signs of weakness after failing to hold above this level. With renewed risk-off sentiment and escalating global trade tensions—especially involving Japan and the U.S.—this pair may be setting up for a bearish continuation. Here's what both the chart and macro backdrop suggest. 📊 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart) Key Supply Zone Retested: The pair retraced into a previously broken structure zone (blue box), rejecting the 143.70–144.00 area multiple times. Price is now forming lower highs, indicating bearish pressure building beneath resistance. Bearish Continuation Pattern: Price action resembles a bear flag, with a minor pullback likely before continuation lower. A retest of 143.00–143.50 could serve as an ideal sell zone. Major Support Levels: 142.04–142.02: Immediate support, already tested. 140.16: Key structure low from late April. 138.04: Final measured move target based on Fibonacci extension and prior demand zone. Bearish Trade Setup: Entry Zone: 143.00–143.50 Stop: Above 145.35 TP1: 142.00 TP2: 140.15 TP3: 138.00 🌐 Macro Fundamentals Trump Tariffs Stir Instability: President Trump is pressing Japan in trade talks with threats of new tariffs, already impacting investor confidence A 25% tariff on Japanese auto exports has gone into effect, disrupting trade negotiations. Urgency for a Deal, But No Progress Yet: Trump says multiple deals are “coming,” but little substance has emerged. Analysts fear economic fallout and potential global recession if tensions continue JPY Strengthening on Safe-Haven Flows: With U.S. economic indicators weakening and global uncertainty rising, the yen may benefit from risk aversion. ✅ Summary USDJPY remains vulnerable to downside continuation from the 143–144 resistance zone. If price breaks below 142.00 again with conviction, expect momentum to build toward 140.15 and potentially 138.00.
Short
by ultreosforex
4
Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgeThe exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen shows a slight downward trend. The opening rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen on that day was 144.8740. During the trading session, it hit a high of 144.9890 and a low of 144.085. The latest trading price is 144.082, which is 0.60% lower than the closing price of 144.9180 in the New York foreign exchange market on the previous trading day. Buffett has warned of the risks of the US dollar, and funds may flow to safe - haven assets such as the Japanese yen, which may have had a certain impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. On the other hand, from a technical perspective, according to the chart data, the "Daily Chart PP" of the US dollar / Japanese yen shows that its pivot point is at 158.27, and the maximum coverage range of the corresponding support and resistance is 157.29 - 159.33. The current exchange rate is at a relatively low level and may be attracted by the lower support level. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
1