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USDTRY

USDTRY Cooling After Spike – Where to Next? The Turkish Lira story continues—this time through the lens of USDTRY , which has been rising relentlessly and just recently showed signs of exhaustion after tagging highs near 38.95 . 🧭 As seen on the chart, after months of controlled climbing within a broad ascending channel, the pair is now pausing. We may finally be witnessing the beginning of a retracement. Key downside targets have now emerged: • 33.77 – First area of interest • 27.99 – Mid-level retracement • 22.65 – Deep support within the channel These aren't random numbers—they align beautifully with the multi-year channel and prior volatility zones. 📌 Let's not forget, this journey began with a “New Volatility Alert” back in late 2021, and ever since, the USDTRY has mostly respected structural moves. With the Euro pair also showing signs of topping , this could be the dollar’s turn to cool off against the Lira. 📰 Contextual Fuel: • Turkey’s central bank raised rates to 46% in April—one of the most aggressive tightening moves globally. • Over $25B in FX reserves have been used to stabilize the Lira, as inflation forecasts surge past 29.75% for year-end 2025. • Political volatility and macro risks remain, but short-term speculative flows could now reverse. 🚨 Takeaway: Just like EURTRY, the USDTRY may have finally found its ceiling for now. Traders should monitor price action near 38–39 for possible bearish continuation signs. There’s a decent chance that the Lira gains ground in the short to medium term—technical and macro forces now point to consolidation or reversal. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 EURTRY Chart:
Short
by FX_Professor
4
Is Erdogan’s Gambit Destabilizing Turkey’s Future?Erdogan’s administration continues to engage in high-stakes geopolitical maneuvers by maintaining direct and indirect ties with groups designated as terrorist organizations. His government’s strategic alliances, notably with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), serve immediate military and political goals in Syria, despite significant international controversy and longstanding terrorist designations by the U.S. and other global actors. This risky strategy has had a pronounced impact on the Turkish economy. Investors have increasingly shifted their capital from the Turkish Lira to the U.S. dollar, leading to a notable rise in the USD/TRY rate. Fears of further economic isolation and the looming threat of sanctions—which could cut off Turkey from critical European banking and trade services—have only intensified market instability. The growing strains within NATO and shifting regional alliances are compounding these economic challenges. Erdogan’s pragmatic yet contentious foreign policy raises serious questions about Turkey’s future role within the alliance, as Western partners deliberate potential sanctions and other measures. Meanwhile, evolving dynamics with regional powers such as Russia and Iran add further uncertainty to Turkey’s strategic position and economic prospects.
Long
by UDIS_View
USDT Dominance Weekly Chart Analysis !!The chart shows USDTDominance in the Ukrainian market for several years, indicating distinct trends and patterns. Trend Line Support: A visible upward significant line has been established since 2021. This suggests a fundamental base level from which USDT dominance has historically bounced back. Heads & Shoulders Pattern: The chart item includes the Heads & Shoulders number, indicating a bearish reversal pattern. This means the upward momentum may slow down, and a downward shift may occur. Current Dominance Level: The current level of around 4.53% is significant. A break below this level and a decline may occur, possibly targeting the projected supported area around 2.00% in the long term. Take a look at the support and resistance separation on the chart. The interaction between Trend Travelers and Heads & Shoulders Trend Travelers will be important in predicting the future of USDT dominance. Anticipating a downward movement may be prudent, If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters! Thanks for your support! DYOR. NFA
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CryptoSanders9563
USDTDOMINANCE CHART UPDATE !The chart highlights USDT dominance (USDT.D), which is used to measure market sentiment and money flow into or out of stablecoins such as USDT The chart shows a completed “head and shoulders” pattern, which is often considered bearish in technical analysis. The neckline has been broken, indicating the possibility of further declines. The price appears to be testing a descending triangle, which could indicate a continuation of the decline. The green area below (possibly around 2.5%-3%) could act as a crucial support if dominance continues to decline. The 50-day (red) and 200-day (green) moving averages are plotted. Dominance is trading below both moving averages, which reinforces bearish momentum. A breakdown of the current triangle could lead to further declines towards the marked support area. If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters! Thanks for your support! DYOR. NFA
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CryptoSanders9563
Can Turkey's Lira Dance with the Dollar?Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey, navigating through the complexities of fiscal management and monetary policy to stabilize the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar. The nation has embarked on a strategic pivot towards domestic funding, significantly increasing the issuance of Turkish Government Bonds to manage soaring inflation and debt service costs. This approach, while stabilizing in relative terms, challenges Turkey to balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, a dance that requires both precision and foresight. The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates amidst rising inflation paints a picture of calculated risk and strategic optimism. The bank is threading a needle between fostering economic activity and maintaining price stability by targeting a reduction in inflation over the medium term while allowing short-term increases. This policy shift, coupled with a focus on local funding, not only aims to reduce external vulnerabilities but also tests the resilience of Turkey's economy against global economic currents, including the impact of international political changes like the US election. Globally, the economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties, and Turkey's strategy of maintaining a stable credit rating while forecasting a decrease in inflation sets an intriguing stage. The country's ability to attract investment while managing its debt profile, especially in light of global monetary policy shifts by major players like the Federal Reserve and the ECB, will be a testament to its economic stewardship. This narrative invites readers to delve deeper into how Turkey might leverage its economic policies to not only survive but thrive in a fluctuating global market. The enigma of the USD/TRY exchange rate thus becomes a compelling study of economic strategy, where every policy decision is a move in a larger game of financial chess. Turkey's attempt to balance its books while dancing with the dollar challenges conventional economic wisdom and invites observers to ponder: Can a nation truly master its currency's fate in the global marketplace?
Long
by UDIS_View
USDT.D Update. USDT dominance (USDT.D) appears to form a descending triangle or wedge pattern, with two converging trendlines indicating a potential breakdown. The upper trendline is descending, indicating consecutive lower highs. The lower trendline is relatively flat, but rising slightly. USDT.D is approaching the lower trendline, indicating potential support. The path drawn indicates a potential breakdown below the lower trendline. Downward continuation is anticipated in the orange zone (3.40%–3.10%). Resistance: ~4.20% Support: ~3.90% and orange zone around 3.40%–3.10% If USDT dominance falls, it usually suggests that traders move capital from stablecoins (USDT) to riskier assets like Bitcoin or altcoins, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the broader crypto market. Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments! DYOR. NFA
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CryptoSanders9563
USDT MOON- Do you know what happens when something push too much ? it reverses and goes down. - Sir Fibonacci said one day : " When u launch a coin to the sky, it takes speed, then it stops, then it goes down more fast than it went up " - if USDT grab more Dominance on Cryptos Markets, it would mean we are rolling back in the "Old Financial system" i hope everyone understand that. - That's not gonna happens. - i won't comments much on this analysis, but it speaks by itself. ( everything is in the graphic ) - i won't also speak about what happened recently to UST in Luna Ecosystem because it's sad for the peoples. - Stay in BTC and pray TheKing. Happy Tr4ding !
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by thecryer
12
When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation. The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making. What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Long
by MorMedia
2
USDTRY Approaching the top of the Channel Up.The USDTRY pair has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and the price is now very close to the pattern's top (Higher Highs trend-line). Technically this is were a rejection should take place to reset the market at the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our Target is 33.4000, which is just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, where the last correction bottomed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace USDTRYA Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace the US Dollar The once-dominant Japanese yen has historically been the preferred currency for carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. However, a significant shift is underway, as hedge funds increasingly turn to the US dollar as their borrowing currency. This strategic change is driven by a confluence of factors, including the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, the weakening Japanese yen, and the allure of emerging-market currencies. The Allure of Emerging-Market Currencies Emerging-market currencies have long been a focal point for carry trade strategies, offering the potential for substantial returns. The relatively high interest rates in these economies, coupled with their often-growing economies, make them attractive investment destinations. However, the choice of borrowing currency plays a crucial role in determining the overall risk-reward profile of such trades. The Yen's Diminishing Appeal The Japanese yen has traditionally been a popular choice for carry trades due to its historically low interest rates. However, a combination of factors has eroded its appeal in recent years. The Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, aimed at stimulating the economy, has kept interest rates exceptionally low. Moreover, the yen's weakness against other major currencies has increased the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in yen. The Rise of the US Dollar The US dollar, once a less common choice for carry trades, has gained prominence as a borrowing currency. Several factors have contributed to this shift. First, the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish monetary policy, characterized by interest rate hikes and a reduction in quantitative easing, has made the dollar a relatively higher-yielding currency. Second, the dollar's strength against other major currencies has reduced the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in dollars. The Case of USDTRY One notable example of the shift towards US dollar-funded carry trades is the USDTRY pair. The Turkish lira, with its relatively high interest rates, has been a popular target for carry trade investors. However, the increasing political and economic uncertainties in Turkey have made the lira a riskier investment. By borrowing in US dollars, investors can potentially benefit from the interest rate differential while mitigating some of the risks associated with the Turkish lira. Challenges and Considerations While the US dollar-funded carry trades offer potential benefits, they are not without risks. The US Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions, geopolitical events, and economic fluctuations in emerging markets can all impact the profitability of these trades. Additionally, the increasing popularity of carry trade strategies can lead to market volatility and potential reversals. Conclusion The shift in carry trade strategies from the Japanese yen to the US dollar represents a significant development in the global financial markets. As emerging-market currencies continue to offer attractive investment opportunities, the choice of borrowing currency will remain a critical consideration for hedge funds and other investors seeking to capitalize on these trends. While the US dollar has gained prominence, the potential risks and challenges associated with carry trades should be carefully evaluated before making investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Short Update. USDT dominance is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle formation. The price has been recently rejected at the Ichimoku Cloud resistance level, leading to a slight pullback. However, the 200-day moving average (200MA) remains a key support level beneath the current price, suggesting the potential for a bounce if the price reaches this area. If USDTD breaks below the 200MA, this could indicate a decline in dominance, which may lead to an upward movement in the broader cryptocurrency market. Traders should keep a close eye on these technical levels to anticipate a possible breakout or breakdown, which could provide insight into the next significant market move. Stay vigilant and adjust your strategies according to these key technical indicators. Remember: This is not financial advice. Stay tuned to us for further updates and analysis. Thank you!
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CryptoSanders9563
USDTRY Inflationary uptrend still intact but buy on the right leThe USDTRY pair has almost doubled since our last buy signal (October 27 2022, see chart below): This pair remains one of the most efficient long-term trades long-term as its inflationary uptrend remains intact. We won't turn buyers again however before a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test or a neutral 1W RSI (less than 50.00). Our next Target is 40.0000 (again on the 10-year Higher Highs trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Correction is approachingI see that there is a pattern forming that indicates the beginning of the expected correction of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. Please note that this chart is on a monthly frame. It will take a medium period to be implemented. From my point of view, according to this analysis and data, there will be a small rise near the area of 32 to 34 Turkish liras per dollar, and from there a large three-wave correction will begin and extend for several years to come. Then we will update the market. Good luck. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
by KhaldHegazy
9
Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years. After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028. Targets: First target: Range of 28-29 Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
by MinimumWagerLvl1
5
Right, I'm calling it! 😁💥Overview I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling. The Details 2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻 The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates hiking from 8.50% to 45.00% - and conventional monetary policy seems to have finally arrived😅 Erodgan seems more committed to tackling inflation and having central bank stability Things to consider I am not suggesting that Turkey is on the verge of a boom, though I am not ruling this out; inflation could be peaking, so the Lira may finally see strength. This will create an all-time high on the TRY charts. I suggest that the aggressive uptrend could be coming to an end, even if that means TRY pairs start ranging. The carry trade makes this an irresistible opportunity for me. I have been long TRYJPY since June 2023, which has resulted in generous daily swap payments💰
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
2
#USDT Dominance signalling a Buy Signal, EXIT ALTCOINS OR WAIT?Tether Dominance Analysis: ☑️ A slight rejection is visible; historically, rejection leads to continuation, while a breakout triggers an exit from the market. ☑️ G-Trend has already triggered a buy signal, implying a shift to selling altcoins for USDT. ☑️ For confirmation, altcoins might dip a bit more. ☑️ The blue trendline and the 6% level are crucial points to observe. I exited 40% of my altcoins which had vertical moves on the 4th Jan right before the bleeding started. I have plans to buy back lower but not unless I see some confirmation! Do hit the like button if you like my updates and share your views in the comment section. If you do, I will let you know when the sentiment changes! #PEACE
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Cryptorphic
4