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Uselections2024

USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544. On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44. On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
by morrisgitau
THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL THE KOG REPORT: This week’s KOG Report is a little different this week due to the upcoming elections. For that reason, we’re going to share the levels and potential movement since we are almost guaranteed to see some extreme movement over the coming sessions. The chart was shared in Camelot together with the analysis 4yrs ago which worked well. On the left chart you can see the 2020 reaction to the elections giving a powerful movement across the markets and gold moving over 2000pips in days. We’ve shown this chart to make new and less experienced traders aware of what can happen based on any result! Price will whipsaw, they will chop and change direction and when they move, it will really move. IF, and it’s a BIG IF, you’re going to attempt to trade it, please make sure your lot sizes are sensible, and your risk model is flexible enough to adapt to sudden changes in direction. Now the chart on the right. We have drawn a path, but it’s based more on a potential fractal rather than set in stone. The levels however are important, and potentially if targeted can give traders opportunities to capture the bounces or, give them a better understanding of where price can go before taking a breather. We’re close to the 2800 level but as you can see, we’ve struggled to break it, this usually just means that price has travelled enough to take a slight pause in direction, and requires a pullback, which is what we analysed and traded last week. How far thought, with extreme news and volatility entails caution, our immediate support and resistance levels hardly work in these scenarios. So, when we look at extreme levels on the chart we can see the following: We have resistance above on the daily at 2745 which needs a daily close above to go higher. This flips our support level into the 2715 level which looks like a decent level for price to attempt in the coming sessions. Our order region is sitting at the psychological level of 2700 with the extension of the move into the 2680-5 level. This, if attempted could give traders and opportunity to take the long back up towards the 2730-35 red box level which will have also flipped into resistance. This is the level currently in play and needs to be monitored as this is the order region they’re using to propel the price in either direction. It’s also the reason they’re accumulating here and start the pre-event range. Break above, and we should see bulls’ step in and force price higher, as shown in the illustration on the chart. The range is big, the high in sight is the 2820-34 region, which if attacked and rejected can give us opportunities to capture the larger short trade, while the 2575-65 level is sticking out for the undercut low. To be totally honest, knowing what can happen and how price can move, it’s the same strategy as trading NFP and FOMC. Don’t trade the volume driven candles, wait for price to move, use the levels and the red boxes, and then, with a risk model in place take a sensible trade if you’re going to trade it. The above is just our view and more for educational purposes. We will continue to use our proven red box strategy, indicators and our trusted algo Excalibur to guide us through the markets. Good luck for the week ahead! KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 2744 with targets below 2720, 2714 and below that 2702 Bullish on break of 2744 with targets above 2792 and above that 2803 Red boxes: Break above 2744 for 2753, 2765, 2780 Break below 2730 for 2715, 2705, 2695 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
Gold out Lookthose who are bearish should see weekly Rejection till the trend line price broke its daily recent trend line and got back in i suggest that gold will remain bullish over this week as it has not broke its trend line to the downside if it does so and breaks below 2678 level of support we can consider it will drop towards 2661 and then 2648-45 level of support and will not come upwards easily then another confluence is gold has closed back in position and remained near 2700 level and retested it several times
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wakeel_Saab
BTC DOMINANCE After a Trump victory the markets are booming, a new BTC ATH pushed bitcoin dominance to new local highs of 60.6%. Now we've seen a decent retracement on the daily candle and BTC is still in price discovery. This indicates to me that we have an altcoin resurgence on our hands, returning confidence in crypto and the green light for crypto support by America is a very important to this current rally. I could see BTC dominance dropping to 59.5% before any continuation (bottom of the trend channel) higher and that's not particularly from a BTC selloff although that is possible as a SFP, but more likely is just BTC staying where it is and altcoins making up some ground. RSI has dropped out of the oversold zone with this daily candle, a cool off is eventually inevitable as long as price stays flat while RSI cools it's very bullish. A lot of that altcoin move needs to be from ETH imo, with BTC @ ATH Ethereum is 72% away from ATH... A massive difference and one that should close up going into Q1 2025. The standard process for a crypto bullmarket is: BTC --> ETH --> LARGE CAPS --> MID CAPS --> SMALL CAPS So far we're clearly still in the BTC phase, keeping a close eye on the ETHBTC chart to see if the momentum shifts towards Ethereum but that doesn't seem likely until next year at the earliest.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ProR35
4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead. S&P 500 (SPX) The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy. Gold (XAU/USD) In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher. WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities. The Big Picture From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now. Final Thoughts for Traders Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldCartel
27
TRUMP is the 47th President! Is this bullish for the markets?Donald Trump is the new (47th) President of the United States, coming into office for his 2nd time. The practical question on the investor's mind is of course how will the stock markets react? Even though there is no definitive way to approach this, the fact that Trump will resume power for a 2nd term, gives us a historic data set to have grounds for comparison. Fundamentally anything can be discussed on policies and strategies etc but technically the picture is more objective. As you can see on this Dow Jones (DJI) chart displayed on the 1W time-frame, Trump's 1st Presidential win was on November 08 2016. At that time, the market was trading within a Channel Up that started after a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) double test on January 19 and February 08 2016. Right before the Elections, the index experienced a natural 'Pre-election volatility' phase. The picture during the current election period isn't very different from 2016. As you can see, Dow started a Channel Up pattern after a 1W MA200 test and half-way through the year started to experience the usual 'Pre-election volatility' phase. During that time both in 2024 and 2016, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting and stayed intact. Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar from the time the Channel Up started until the elections. So naturally you are asking what does that mean for us moving forward? Well after the November 08 2016 elections and Trump's 1st win, Dow started to rise aggressively immediately and by March 2017 it almost reached the patterns top (Higher Highs trend-line) before the new medium-term relief pull-back. The post-election Bull Phase was concluded in January 2018, upon completing a +71% rise from the Channel's bottom and 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the volatility phase. So if symmetry acts its part, we may see 47000 by March 2025 and 55000 (+71% from the October 2023 bottom) by the end of 2025. Is this projection definitive? Of course not, nothing is 'absolute' in investing/ trading. But history has shown that the stock market has reacted more than positively after the U.S. elections, particularly in the case of a Trump win. What do you think? Will Trump's 2nd term be bullish? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
1
How would the market react to a Trump or Kamala victory?In recent days, the financial markets have exhibited increased sluggishness as investors await the outcome of the US elections. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump represent two starkly contrasting visions for the future of the United States. This article will explore the potential effects each candidate could have on key financial assets, including Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and EUR/USD. Oil (Brent) If Kamala Harris secures victory in the election, it is likely that her administration will prioritise renewable energy initiatives and stricter environmental regulations, potentially curtailing the use of fossil fuels. This shift could lead to limitations on oil production and a subsequent decrease in supply. With global demand expected to remain stable, this scenario may initially drive Oil prices higher. Conversely, a win for Donald Trump could result in a relaxation of environmental regulations and an incentive to boost domestic oil production. This approach, often articulated by Trump, may increase US supply available for both domestic consumption and export, potentially leading to lower prices, depending on global demand. Trump's administration might also adopt more aggressive policies towards OPEC, adding to market volatility. Gold (XAU/USD) Kamala Harris is likely to support expansionary fiscal policies, including increased spending on social programs and infrastructure projects. This rise in expenditure may lead to a higher federal deficit, contributing to inflationary pressures and prompting the Federal Reserve (FED) to consider raising interest rates to manage inflation. Higher interest rates could initially weigh on Gold prices, as investors might seek the better yields offered by government bonds. However, ongoing support for international conflicts, such as in Ukraine and Israel, could sustain geopolitical uncertainty, which typically favours Gold as a safe-haven asset. Under a Trump administration, fiscal policies may shift towards tax cuts and reductions in welfare programs. Such cuts could depress government spending and lower aggregate demand, potentially leading to a decrease in inflation and creating room for possible interest rate cuts. Reduced interest rates might drive investors towards equities for better returns or prompt them to seek refuge in Gold during market turmoil. Moreover, Trump's focus on domestic security and diminished global involvement could exacerbate existing conflicts, further elevating Gold prices in the short term. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Kamala Harris has yet to articulate a definitive stance on cryptocurrencies, but the Democratic platform generally leans toward increased regulation. A stricter regulatory environment could deter institutional investment in Bitcoin, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price in the event of a Harris victory. In contrast, Donald Trump has displayed a growing enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies during his campaign, which could catalyse an initial price appreciation for Bitcoin. Additionally, his rapport with Elon Musk, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, strengthens the case for potential gains in BTC should Trump win. S&P 500 Should Kamala Harris assume office, her administration is likely to continue implementing economic stimulus measures, which could bolster the S&P 500, particularly in the green technology and renewable energy sectors. However, tighter regulations on oil and finance industries might adversely impact certain sectors. Therefore, a moderate appreciation of the S&P 500 is plausible, especially if fiscal stimulus supports domestic consumption. On the other hand, a Donald Trump victory could propel the S&P 500 into a strong upward trend, driven by corporate tax cuts and a less interventive regulatory environment. The financial markets tend to react favourably to tax reductions and deregulation, and a decrease in government expenditure could lower inflation in the short term, providing the Fed with room to reduce interest rates. This scenario could enhance credit access and stimulate domestic consumption, benefiting both corporations and the S&P 500. EUR/USD A Kamala Harris presidency may adopt a more cooperative and diplomatic approach to international relations, particularly with the European Union. This stance could strengthen the euro, potentially driving the EUR/USD pair higher due to improved trade relations. Furthermore, robust spending policies might weaken the US dollar, increasing demand for the euro. Conversely, if Donald Trump wins the election, the euro could depreciate against the dollar as his protectionist and aggressive trade policies tend to favour the dollar in the immediate term. Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan underscores his commitment to bolstering domestic trade and the dollar. Consequently, any policy that negatively impacts trade with the EU, such as tariffs or aggressive trade measures, could further weaken the euro while benefiting the USD. Preparing for Diverse Market Outcomes In conclusion, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerges victorious could result in markedly different consequences for the financial markets. It is crucial to recognise that the market is likely to wait and observe which policies will be implemented in practice. The repercussions of the US elections may resonate for months ahead as market participants acclimatise to this new reality. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
by Marketscom
GOLD OUTLOOK Gold a safe heaven as we have taken bunch of profits today as it was our lucky day now as we see all day activity gold price remained very choppy price didn't broke above 2748 price level of resistance also didn't broke below 2731 price level of support as price has formed immediate resistance level of 2746-48 Now we again predict a fall in price as from H4 to H1 we can observe price is in a bearish momentum although price is showing some bearish signs over Daily Time frame but still price is in a bullish trend daily as we haven't observed any CHOCH on daily TF GEOPOLITICS As Geopolitics is concerned tight situation between iran and israel has loosen up to some extent of some tension increases we can see a bull run over price US ELECTIONs As far as today's big news is concerned gold is under effect of US Congress elections and what we have observed today is election effect tomorrow at 6th we can see any predictable price movment till now we are bearish over gold as price is all sideways
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Wakeel_Saab
Phemex Analysis #32: BTC to $70,000 Amidst US Election VolatilitPHEMEX:BTCUSDT.P has surged past the $70,000 mark and is now testing the formidable $72,000 resistance level. This bullish momentum has ignited excitement among crypto enthusiasts, but the looming US Presidential Election adds an element of uncertainty to the market. Potential Scenarios 1. Bullish Continuation: If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $72,000 resistance level, it could trigger a significant upward movement.Strong buying pressure and positive sentiment could propel the price to new all-time highs. A clear and decisive victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential Election could further fuel bullish momentum. 2. Bearish Reversal: If Bitcoin fails to break through the $72,000 resistance level and encounters strong selling pressure, it could lead to a price correction. A highly contested or uncertain election outcome could create volatility and risk aversion among investors, potentially leading to a sell-off. Trading Strategies I. Bullish Strategy: Buy the Breakout: If Bitcoin breaks above the $72,000 resistance with strong volume, consider buying. Take Profit: Set a take-profit target at a higher resistance level, such as $80,000. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss order below a key support level, like $65,000, to limit potential losses. II. Bearish Strategy: Short Sell: If Bitcoin fails to break above the $72,000 resistance and starts to decline, consider short-selling. Take Profit: Set a take-profit target at a lower support level, such as $65,000 or $58,900. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss order above the $73,850 (all-time high) resistance level to limit potential losses. III. Buy the Dip Strategy: If Bitcoin experiences a correction during a bearish scenario and you maintain a long-term bullish outlook, consider buying the dip at key support levels like $65,000 or $58,900. Short-Term Profit: For short-term gains, you can take profit at $72,000 or $73,850. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss order at the next support level. For example, if you enter at $65,000, consider placing a stop-loss below $58,900. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent surge and the upcoming US Presidential Election have created a dynamic market environment. While the potential for further upside exists, it's crucial to remain cautious and manage risk effectively. By carefully analyzing market trends, understanding key support and resistance levels, and implementing appropriate trading strategies, investors can navigate the volatility and capitalize on potential opportunities. Tips: Elevate Your Trading Game with Phemex. Experience unparalleled flexibility with features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time adjustments to strategy orders. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution. Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
by Phemex