ORBEX: Has the Santa Rally Started Already?In today’s market insights I explain why equities are not affected by reports that China wants existing tariffs removed in order to proceed with phase one of a deal! Perhaps, investors couldn't care less about the consistent back and forth between US and China before they go home for Christmas...
I reveal how I expect the S&P500 to perform in December, and while at it, I also analyse the US index!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Usindex
ORBEX: Weekend Trade News Likely to Affect SPX, DXY!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY .
SPX takes a breather from all-time highs offering some pocket-relief to short-term bulls, however, with weekend trade headline news the rally could continue higher.
The US index looks bid too despite the medium-term bearishness as the economy performs incredibly well, supporting the dollar.
From a technical perspective, there's more room to the upside for both. The index, however, will most likely have a harder trip moving higher as its upside is limited. Unless if of course a sharp bullish move occurs, taking out breakeven stops and then reversing rapidly to everyone's surprise.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ORBEX: EQUITIES REACH FRESH ALL TIME HIGHS!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY .
SPX keeps hitting fresh highs despite Fed's message to keep rates on hold until 2020. Trade wars do seem to be influencing flows more than anything else right now? Whatever the case, sharp upside and overbought hints to exhaustion!
The DXY's recent upside though should be watched closely. It's either an expanded flat or a zig-zag correction, so, could expect either a decline or a correction.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ORBEX: SPX, DXY: What's Next For Indices?In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #SPX and #DXY.
SPX keeps going up, and with structural variances playing in we could see fresh highs reached in no time. Will the US-China situation and a dovish #Fed boost appetite for equities more?
The US Index, on the other hand, should be watched cautiously. Will this upside impulsive move turn out to be another correction or the real bullish deal?
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ORBEX:SPX,DXY - Equities Upbeat As Phase-1 Agreed in PrincipleIn today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about China's comments on Phase-1 of a potential trade deal with the US and last Friday's #NFP numbers.
I look at the SPX and DXY as both are affected by the above events in a different way; the S&P500 remains upbeat on Friday's sentiment whereas the dollar index, although yields were seen ending the week higher, was a likely is going to remain under pressure on safe-haven outflows.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX:SPX,DXY -Tradewar Deal Next Month! Brexit Today, Tomorrow?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX and #DXY #Indices!
Equities and Cash Indices are both affected by growing confidence surrounding #tradewars, #Brexit and of course, the upbeat US earning reports that keep coming out!
With Mr Trump expecting a #tradewar deal by the middle of next month and BoJo willing to push through his latest EU-agreed deal through parliament today or tomorrow, it's going to be an interesting start to the week.
Meanwhile, the economic calendar is light today, Monday, making headline news a good market mover!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX: #Tradewar #Brexit: Two Deals, Not One, TWO DEALS!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX500 and #DXY
SPX Bid on:
- US-China limited deal
- Brexit front optimism
*Performance depends on deal details and US earnings!
US Index Down on:
- Trade optimism
- Fed willing to cut again
And despite UoM was upbeat!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX: DXY, SPX - FED to Delay Cut? Trade Talks Resume ThursdayIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #dxy and #spx
Both affected by:
- post-NFP flows (seen as positive for now, delaying Fed cut)
- Poor ISM last week (numbers affected by tradewars)
- Expectations on trade talks (resume on Thursday but looking pessimistic)
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
How to Trade the SPX in October 2019Look for the SPX to trade rangebound between 2960 and 2880 for 2 to 3 weeks, followed by a significant move either to the upside or downside.
Its too early to tell which way the move will resolve, so be watching closely. My bias is towards the downside, specifically towards the trend-line at 2790, but considering the amount of liquidity the Fed has already pumped into the market, I would not be surprised to see the S&P shoot higher.
ORBEX: DXY, SXP Affected by US-Sino TradeWar ReescalationIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse the US Index and S&P 500
What affects #DXY and #SPX:
- China cancels a visit to US farms
- Trump says no need for trade deal before 2020 elections, in response to Chinese cancelation
- US President also says won't do a partial deal, only complete deal
- Fed rate cut
- Dovish banks
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Dow Jones: Lower Buy opportunity and continuation level.Having successfully hit both of our bearish targets on the MA20 1D sell signal:
, the index is trading inside a 1D Descending Head and Shoulders pattern (RSI = 30.952, MACD = -335.400, Highs/Lows = -556.4643) with clear sell/ buy pressure points. We are currently approaching the strongest buy level (24,600) which is for us an automatic long order to 25,070. If 25,200 breaks and gets re-tested successfully as a Support, it will be a long continuation signal towards 25,800.
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Dow Jones below the MA20. Caution. At least -1.40% underway.DJI has crossed below the MA(20) for the first time since late March. 1D has turned neutral (RSI = 50.457) calling for attention.
Since the aggressive bull market took a pause in January 2018, Dow Jones crossed below the MA(20) 12 times. The dynamics of each break out vary but on average the price dropped -4.94% before the next sustainable rise. The highest decline was -14.10% (December 3, 2019) and the lowest -1.40% (May 29, 2018).
Since the index has already pulled back -0.94%, it is fair to assume that more selling in underway.
If it drops to the minimum -1.40% then the bottom will be made around 26,050.
If it drops to the average -4.94% then expect a bottom around 25,100.
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