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US100: Price Will Soon Reach the Area of Interest -INTRODUCTION- US100 is currently moving in a downtrend. This index likes to consolidate within a horizontal channel before breaking down to reach a new low. From the chart, we can spot several horizontal channels formed from the new support levels. Observing closely, we can see that when the price has retraced and reached the top of the channel, it almost always fell sharply down to retest the previous low. -TRADING PLAN- Currently, the price is retracing from the yearly low and reaching the top of the channel. From the $12600 level, we will observe whether the price will break the resistance level or consolidate and drop. US session tomorrow should create some signals. Check out our previous trading ideas below :)
U
by NicoBeau_Capital
US30: Price Forms a Rising Wedge Pattern-INTRODUCTION- US30 currently has two gaps which are not filled. One is the recent low at the $30650 level while another one is at the $31300 level. In 1-hour chart, we can see that the price has formed a rising wedge pattern, along with a bearish divergence in RSI. Therefore, we expect a sharp bearish breakout sometimes very soon, similar to the last retracement breakout. -TRADING PLAN- We will carefully monitor the price movement during the US session today to see whether the price will break the rising wedge pattern. We love to trade rising/falling wedge patterns. Breaking the pattern often creates a strong price impulse, especially when the pattern is formed as a retracement. Check out our recent retracement trading ideas below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
6
Evening Update: Give me 4,000SPX, why can't you give me 4,000? It's not much to ask. This is turning into a mess!!!! The largest US Index needs to get over 4,000 and close there. The chart above outlines an ED. Even me, who is not a trader, will trade for 10% upside. That's the upside if this pattern turns into an ED. But the weakness is concerning to me. Tomorrow is the GDP report. All I ask is let's break out or break down...but tell me something definitively. Until then....all we have is this Gobbly-Gook. Above 4,000 and 4,300 looks good. Below 3810 and 3700 is where we hope price stops....but below 3700 and 3500 seems like the next logical support area. Best to All, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
Price Reached a New Low and Retraced, When to Sell Next?-INTRODUCTION- Last Friday, US30 has reached a new low at the $30650 level. As we forecasted in our previous US30 analysis, the price broke out from its bearish flag channel during the last US session. This indicates that the bearish trend is still very valid and we will continue to look for sell opportunities after a retracement. -TRADING PLAN- The price has retraced and is currently retesting the resistance level of $31600. This is where the previous breakout has occurred. In the chart, we can also see that today's market opening has created a gap at the $31300 level. If the price breaks down from the current retracement uptrend channel, then we expect the price to reach $31300 level first to fill the gap. However, if the price breaks up the $31600 resistance level first, then the price could reach to retest the $31900 level. US30 currently has an unfilled gap and also a new lower low price level which has not been retested. Therefore, there’s a very high probability for the price to arrive at those two levels. Now, we just need to focus on the price action to determine the next sell entry price. US session today should provide a clear path. Check out our recent US indices trading idea below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
US100: Next Sell Opportunity to Catch a Sharp Bearish Impulse -INTRODUCTION- US100 is currently moving in a downtrend. This index likes to consolidate within a horizontal channel before breaking down to reach a new low. From the chart, we can spot several horizontal channels formed from the new support levels. Observing closely, we can see that when the price has retraced and reached the top of the channel, it almost always fell sharply down to retest the previous low. -TRADING PLAN- US100 is moving in a downtrend and currently, the price is retracing from the yearly low. Our plan is to enter sell positions from the top of the horizontal channel, as we can see from the past price actions that when the price began to retrace from the new low, it has reached the channel high everytime. Therefore, our potential sell zone is set at the $12600 level. From that area, we will target the recent yearly low of $11700. Check out our previous US Indices trading ideas below
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
2
US30: A Great Sell Setup From the Bearish Flag Channel-INTRODUCTION- US30 has recently reached a new low at the $31000 level. This makes the downtrend still very valid and we will look to enter sell positions after a retracement. In the 15-minute chart, we can see a sharp bearish impulse movement, followed by a slow retracement. These are good bearish structures indicating that bears are still in control. -TRADING PLAN- The price is moving nicely within the bearish flag channel. Currently, the price is testing the resistance level of $31600. If the price breaks above, then we expect the price to retest the next resistance level of $31900. If failed, then the price should break down the bearish flag channel, falling to retest the previous low. US session today should provide a clear path. Check out our recent US500 intraday trading idea below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
Evening Update: SPX TodayOvernight ES futures are signaling an SPX open right at the lows . As I have written about for weeks...I was calling for an ABC flat to complete wave 4. I am still expecting that to play out but I'll know this morning when the SPX opens if that is going to be reasonable. The issue I have with that pattern now is this decline should be a 3 wave pattern that overlaps (a B Wave). This recent decline looks impulsive and the observer could reasonably conclude that this decline will continue. A continuation would've been my black count that I removed from the chart a couple days ago. This is the primary reason why no one should ever try to trade a wave 4. It's difficult to analyze let alone try to make money in it. Suffice to say if we take out 3850-SPX then we may be headed another 100 points lower rather quickly. Let's see what clues we get today. Best to All, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
Morning Update: Black Count Pathway REMOVEDAs I have been writing about the equal chance of BLUE and BLACK pathways to reconcile lower, this mornings things got a little clearer. This prolonged consolidation higher off of the 3860 low leaves the blue count as most probable. Therefore I have removed the black count from the chart, as it called for immediate continuation of the downtrend. That clearly did not happen. The Blue count puts us in a consolidation area for most if not all this week before we complete blue wave 4. Best to All, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
US100: A Roadmap for the Next Sell SetupLast week, US100 has made a new low at $11700 level. This price movement indicates that the bearish trend is still very valid and therefore, we will continue to look for sell entries after a retracement. Currently, we can see a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern in making. Thus, we will monitor for a breakout from the neckline area. If the price breaks above, we will then expect the price to reach $13000 level first. If price continues to break above, then it could reach the next resistance level of $13600. $13000 and $13600 are two key resistance levels from where we will prepare to enter our sell positions. From one of those two resistance levels, the price could fall to retest the previous low of $11700. Check out our previous US indices trading ideas below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
US30: The Next Potential Sell Zone After a Retracement Last week, US30 has arrived at a new low at $31200 level. Therefore, this indicates that the downtrend is still very valid, and we will continue to look for sell entries after a retracement. From $31200 level, we can spot a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which could indicate the start of a retracement. Our area of interest to enter sell positions are at the resistance level of $33200 and $34100. After the price has retraced to those levels, we will look for a consolidation/reversal pattern. We can see that during the previous price retracements, prices all have formed double tops first, and then broke and retested the neckline area before resumed its bearish trend to make a new low. Therefore, we will be looking for a similar scenario during this retracement. Check out our previous US indices trading ideas below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
Morning Update: Does the Market Prefer Black, Blue or GreenThe overnight futures are signaling an open right into the 1.0 Fib Extension. Under the BLACK count (which is my primary expectation) we go back down. This would take us into the 3726 area over the next couple of days. From there we would consolidate back into the 3960 area over the course of the next couple weeks. This would be a proper wave 4 as our wave 2 was short and shallow. Afterwards we would see a precipitous decline into the 3500 level for a final wave 5 bottom. If my primary expectation is wrong we should know today. This would involve a rather boring day of consolidating but with an upward bias back above the 4,000 area and maybe getting as high as 4024 - 4060 by early next week. This is represented in the BLUE count (which is my alternative expectation). What comes to mind today is the Old Market Adage of "The Markets NEVER bottom on a Friday". I still maintain having lost positive divergence on the daily chart, I feel a bottom is in the making...but it just got prolonged. That is why the BLUE count is NOT my primary as it completes this decline rather expeditiously. So, my primary expectation is we will face lower prices in the future before we have a sustainable rally. Having said that, we may end up prolonging this bottom even longer with a serious curve ball to market participants. This entire 5 month decline has been an A wave whereas we will spend the bulk of summer gradually advancing in a countertrend B wave, only to CRASH in the 3rd quarter into the low 3,000 level. This pathway is outlined in the above chart in GREEN (a second alternative expectation). Traders must always be looking for alternative outcomes to be best prepared. This is an SECONDARY alternative and as of right now I have no information to it's probability. Only that it is a rational explanation for a prolonged bottoming pattern. It would involve us advancing past 4060 - 4090....which seems unlikely to me. BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Who said tracking the market's moves is easy? Best to All, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
S&P 500: Intraday Gap Trading OpportunitiesIn the 15-minute chart, we can see that there are two gaps which are not closed.  We name them Gap A and Gap B. Currently, we can see that price has formed an inverse head and shoulder pattern. If a breakout occur, we believe that price will retrace to fill the two gaps before it can drop to a new low. Trading Roadmap: First, we wait for a clear breakout from the neckline area. After a clear breakout, we will wait to capture the retracement at the neckline area. From there, we will enter our buy positions targeting the GAP (B) and GAP (A). Once the GAP (A) is filled, we think the level of $4300 would be a good sell zone because we can see many rejections have happened from that level. Price failling below the $3960 level before a breakout would invalidate this setup .
SP:SPXLong
by NicoBeau_Capital
US30: A Bullish Candlestick Pattern Appears at the Support LevelRecently, US30 has arrived at a key support level of $32000. As we forecasted in our previous US30 analysis, the price had more rooms to drop, eventually testing the yearly low of $32200 level. We can see that past prices have bounced up from this level. Clear bullish candlestick patterns can be seen to support the start of each correction. As we zoom in current 4-hour chart, we can see a doji-star followed by an engulfer candle. This is a bullish sign which could indicate the start of a correction from this level. US session today should provide more directional momentum. Seller should halt the sell entries as the bullish signals take place
U
by NicoBeau_Capital
A Lower Low Validates Sell Opportunities for Every RetracementPrevious US100 Chart Update: Last week, US100 has made a new lower low in the $12550 level. This provides a great opportunity to sell at every retracement. US Dollar Index has just made a new high since 2004. This further confirms that a bearish reversal for DXY is unlikely to take place in the near future. Therefore, we will be looking for potential sell opportunities in US100. Currrently, the price is consolidating in the new lower low area. Therefore, we have no immediate trading action for now. Our plan is to wait for price to retrace to the area of $13600 ~$13700, which is the level where all recent retracements have reached. From there, our first sell target will be in the price level from where the price has bounced up.
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
3
A Wide Horizontal Channel Provides A Great Buy OpportunitySince February, US100 has been moving in a $2200 wide range. This range is very wide, but the price has succeeded in reaching the resistance and support levels multiple times. This shows that an immediate break is not likely at key levels and might at least require multiple short-term re-tests before the levels can be broken. From 13000 support level, we can see that the price has bounced up twice from this level and the price rejections were quitely strong. After a doji candle was formed, a large bullish engulfing candle immediately followed, creating a strong bullish momentum. Therefore, as the current price goes near the support level, along with a RSI exhaustion, we need to carefully observe the price action. A preferable candlestick combination would be a doji star followed by a bullish engulfing candle. After a reversal formation is confirmed, we will set buy stop orders a few pips above the engulfing candle. Our first target will be in the area of 14260.
ULong
by NicoBeau_Capital
5