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CRUDE break downCrude oil is breaking down, and is doign that really fast as well. Unfortunately, this is not expected to abate inflation, negligibly if at all. Part of this slide down comes from a surging USD, and the other half is the anticipation of a recession due to the spiking interest rates. The Crude futures weekly chart is all bearish, candlesticks, indicators, etc. The projected downside target of 70 is feasible, but possible for a stall/bounce at 75. The daily chart shows a decisive breakdown out of the support range, heading to the 1.618 Fibonacci projection target at 70. While most indicators are bearish, oddly noted that there is some volume divergence. This is the first hint that an underlying rally might be forming... more on this as it develops.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
CRUDE Bounced off & rehash...As previously expected, Crude bounced off 95 (95.10 to be exact) and it bounced off with gusto, to reclaim 100 support. The bounce was a fast intraday check-in at 95, and the following day clocked a bullish engulfing of sorts. This was then followed by another bullish day to end the week with a long lower tail, indicative that between 95 to 100, likes a lot of demand. The daily technical indicators are starting to crossover. This recovery bounce is also awesome as it broke down and out of the triangle and then returned back in. For technical analysts, we do know that when this happens, there is a higher probability that there will be an exit on the other side... ie. a breakout is imminent. Note that the triangle was updated by readjustment from previously. In the weekly chart, while the technical indicators are still trudging lower, the candlestick shows a temporary spike out of the triangle only to make it back in. This is a bullish indication IMHO. Taken together, expect the bullish run to meet some resistance about 112-114 in the following days of the incoming week. There needs to be a higher low, that bounces off the triangle support... and then we just might get a bull run breakout in early August 2022. Watch this one! ps. Target breakout (dotted green arrow) and upside target of 165 updated. Pennant pattern (fibonacci) projection also added (dashed green arrow)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
Crude in retracementCrude oil prices are in clear retracement this week, in the midst of broad market down trending. Previous week's assessment was that Crude stalled, and the week passed saw Crude reach near target, almost 124, before stalling and retracing. For interest, white arrows show entry and exit points that were taken. Just days after closing the trade, Crude turned down for a retracement, and started with a weekly down candle that wiped out 5 weeks of gains. The daily chart shows that particularly after FOMC announcement of the 75 basis point increment, Crude took a definitive step back, and as the news sunk in, accentuated the slide downwards. Crude is in retracement mode, that appears to target 95 bounce support at the moment. The trajectory is broken, but the target for USD155-160 for 2022 is still in the making; IF Crude prices falls and maintains below 82, then it nullifies the USD155 projection. Weekly and Daily technical indicators are bearish for now. Look for 100 and 95 as supports over the next week.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude pausesThe Crude oil futures weekly chart started the week with a gap up, but ended the week with a doji candlestick, indicating a stall. Weekly indicators are divergent currently, with the RPM clearly pointing out the stalling, but the MACD crossed over to be bullish again. The daily chart shows of a mid-week extension to near the 125 target, missing slightly, and then stalling and retracing at the end of the week. The rate of daily increase is steady, and not sudden spikes, which is good for the trend build up. Meaning, it would probably last longer uptrend. But for now, it appears to be stalling, and the daily technicals are also showing the signs of a stall. Expectations for the coming two to three weeks would be retracements and consolidating for a coil, before the next launch, pending no sudden geopolitical events to trigger price spikes.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil much longer term perspectiveThe monthly Crude Oil chart shows some seriously nasty ranges. From early 2000s, we have had monthly close check-ins from 20-140; and it does appear that the current dash for the upper end of the range is stronger in momentum (acceleration as seen by the slope and the size of the candlesticks). Taking history into account, it should slow down once crude is about 140, but I suspect the momentum should push it beyond, and as far as 155 in an overshoot. IF we are lucky, ensuing years might see it come back down to 42-45 support area. Unless it maintains above 140, then there would be a massive range breakout. Projections from there would give crude oil another 100 more... yes, 240. But for the nearer term, When crude makes a high above 140 by the end of 2022, things should start getting shaky... watch for it! Phwfffftttttt....
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil UP ah!For the past month or so, been talking about higher Crude prices in the making. Here we are closer to that... The Weekly chart closed at a monthly high, and with such gusto that it is the most bullish looking candle in the past 6 weeks! This came after many indications and warnings from weekly candlestick patterns and daily technicals as outlined previously in the last couple of weeks. So, now the weekly technical indicators are showing a bullish turn. The daily chart have a late week Crude Oil price spike, that is meeting a gap resistance, and the coming week should break through... this is supported by the RPM and MACD technicals. 125 then 155... and this is an off-cycle surge, so am expecting a quick surge really.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil giving a heads up onto a massive breakoutI have not seen such bullish candlestick patterns for a very long time now... The weekly chart had an amazing weekly candle where it is a T type doji, with indications of massive upward momentum, pushing with upward pressure. This comes in tow with two or three previous long tail pattern, and the weekly close is highest in the past 6 weeks. Weekly MACD appear to be turning up again, although not yet crossed over. The Daily chart shows how the week developed, with a mid-week bullish engulfing, and a follow through to the end of the week, with a solid bullish marubozu. Just plain bullish indications, if you ask me. Technicals are again turning upwards, supporting the upward march. Simple projections bring Crude to USD124 at the very least, by end May 2022. And... this is just the beginning. Fair warning given previously... now, it is looking that previous expectations are panning out.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil continues upward momentumAs projected previously, Crude Oil prices are spiking and momentum continue to suggest that it is on track, and just might accelerate. Weekly chart closed with bullish momentum pattern and above average of the recent weeks. Long lower tails and close near the weekly tops suggest bullish momentum (also picking up?) The daily chart is now holding above a consolidation range, and technicals support the upward push to the next higher level. Closing above 120 will firmly put 165 in the target zone.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
Crude Oil breakout to the upsideIn an earlier (longer range) post, Crude to spike over USD150 this time... , Crude oil, energy were already earmarked for an upside spike in the coming weeks to months. Yesterday, due to a EU proposal to have a Russian oil ban including an embargo on crude in six months , it sent prices rocketing over 5% for yesterday. This rise was probably fueled further by FOMC's decision not to raise rates by more than 50 basis points. Some ambiguity in the interpretation but it was overall viewed as positive for demand, etcc. The close was nicely above the gap resistance, and so far in Asian trading hours appear to be continuing the uptrend, keeping well clear of the gap range reopening (yellow box) Based on shorter term projections, the triangle breakout targets USD126 in mid-May. MACD is supportive with a widening above the zero line. We have to wait and see if the acceleration picks up over the next two weeks. Short term target close USD126 Longer term target USD165 Please be prepared, a lot of inflationary pain will flow downstream...
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
2
Crude to spike over USD150 this time...Crude aooears to have broken out of trendline resistance, particularly on the daily chart. Closing today above 107.60 would launch the next rally. Fibonacci projections set target about USD165, about mid-June. The weekly chart candlestick is also forming what might be a bullish candlestick with a long shadow at the bottom, suggesting upward momentum. Daily technicals are already indicating the inevitable. Follow through would also mean some rather significant events in either disruption, conflict, or massive return of consumption. Brace brace brace!!!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
5