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Vietnam

Vietnam's Shadow Over Nike's Swoosh?Nike's recent stock dip illuminates the precarious balance of global supply chains in an era of trade tensions. The article reveals a direct correlation between the proposed US tariffs on Asian imports, particularly from Vietnam – Nike's primary manufacturing hub – and a significant drop in the company's stock value. This immediate market reaction underscores the financial risks associated with Nike's deep reliance on its extensive factory network in Vietnam, which produces a substantial portion of its footwear, apparel, and equipment. Despite robust revenues, Nike operates with relatively thin profit margins, leaving limited capacity to absorb increased costs from tariffs. The competitive nature of the athletic wear industry further restricts Nike's ability to pass these costs onto consumers through significant price hikes without risking decreased demand. Analysts suggest that only a fraction of the tariff burden can likely be transferred, forcing Nike to explore alternative, potentially less appealing, mitigation strategies such as product downgrades or extended design cycles. Ultimately, the article highlights Nike's significant challenges in navigating the current trade landscape. While historically cost-effective, the deep entrenchment of its manufacturing in Vietnam now presents a considerable vulnerability. Shifting production elsewhere, particularly back to the US, proves complex and expensive due to the specialized nature of footwear manufacturing and the lack of domestic infrastructure. The future financial health of the athleticwear giant hinges on its ability to adapt to these evolving geopolitical and economic pressures.
NYSE:NKEShort
by UDIS_View
Macro Monday 52 - Vietnam – The Global Food Supply Giant Macro Monday 52 Vietnam – A Global Food Supply Giant & Diverse Manufacturer According to a report by global wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth and investment, Vietnam is forecast to see a 125% increase in wealth over the next 10 years. This would be the largest expansion in wealth of any country in terms of GDP per capita and number of millionaires, according to the New World Wealth. “Vietnam is positioned to see the sharpest increase in wealth growth in the world over the next decade as it cements its status as a global manufacturing hub” New World Wealth. The GDP growth rate for Vietnam in 2024 is expected to meet the government’s target of 6.5% making it one of the fastest growing economies in terms of GDP growth, the GDP growth rate reached as high as 8% in 2022. Vietnam is also home to 100 million people with 70% of the population between the ages of 15 – 69 and 25% under the age of 15, offering some sustainability to the long-term workforce. Vietnam’s top exports: 1. Electrical machinery and equipment: Valued at $187.1 billion (40.8% of total exports). 2. Machinery including computers: Amounting to $40.1 billion (8.7%). 3. Footwear: Contributing $33.7 billion (7.4%). 4. Knit or crochet clothing and accessories: Worth $21.5 billion (4.7%). 5. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, and prefabricated buildings: Totaling $21 billion (4.6%). 6. Clothing and accessories (not knit or crochet): Representing $20.1 billion (4.4%) Footwear experienced the highest growth among these categories, increasing by 85% from 2021 to 2022. Additionally, machinery (including computers) saw a significant 66.3% advance in export sales during the same period. Nike and Adidas have established their main production bases in Vietnam. If there is one thing everyone needs, it’s a pair of shoes, a great staple for the country to specialize in. Food Produce In recent years, Vietnam has quietly transformed from a regional agricultural producer into a global food powerhouse. Its innovative food industry now plays a critical role in shaping the world’s food supply and that has not happened by chance. Vietnams food story is historic but has also been recently significantly leveraged through government incentives and investment. Vietnam’s impressive array of food exports includes rice, coffee, cassava, bananas, mangoes, and citrus fruits. These products not only sustain local communities but also have a substantial impact on feeding people worldwide. If you ate rice recently or had a robusta coffee, there is an increasing probability that it came from Vietnam. Lets have a look at some of the main Vietnamese food exports that are critical to the global food supply Rice Vietnam will likely become the 2nd largest rice exporter in the world in the 2024/25 season, over taking Thailand’s current 2nd place export volume of 8.2 million tonnes annually. Vietnam exported approximately 7.6 million tonnes in the 2023 to 160 countries. This is expected to exceed 8.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. The Philippines remains Vietnams largest rice buyer, accounting for 45.5% of the country’s rice export turnover. It is interesting to revisit last weeks Macro Monday Country, the Philippines and their close trade ties with Vietnam. The Philippines is one of the largest producers of coconut oil. It is starting to look like South East Asia is a diverse set of critical food producers and disseminators. India hold 1st place as the largest exporter of rice in the world, exporting 17 million tonnes annually. We must acknowledge China as the largest producer of rice in the world at 208 million tonnes, however China only exported c. 2.2 million tonnes, making China a lessor contributor to the supply of rice around the globe. Coffee Vietnam is also the 2nd largest coffee exporter in the world, exporting 1.5 million tons of coffee a year. It is their second most exported asset after rice. Vietnam is known as one of the world’s largest producers of the Robusta coffee bean. Remarkably, Vietnam contributes a significant 40% of the world’s overall Robusta bean production, renowned for its bitterness and suitability in well-rounded coffee blends. Similar to the Ivory Coast, the largest producer/exporter of Cocoa in the world that we covered a few weeks ago, there is also a strong French colonial connection in Vietnam. Vietnam was colonised by the French between 1858 and 1900. This is relevant because the exploitation of natural resources for direct export was the chief purpose of most French investments post colonisation. The robusta coffee in Vietnam was introduced by the French during this period which is the only reason the region has the unique robusta coffee production and export ability. Whilst this could be perceived as having a good long term impact on Vietnams economy, there was a segment I came upon which outlined how rice production was significantly increased as early as the 1900’s, then pushed by the French colonists. This segment paints a tragic picture whilst helping us understand how these countries with favourable land and climates where forcefully farmed and natives subjugated; “ Through the construction of irrigation works, chiefly in the Mekong delta, the area of land devoted to rice cultivation quadrupled between 1880 and 1930. During the same period, however, the individual peasant’s rice consumption decreased without the substitution of other foods. The new lands were not distributed among the landless and the peasants but were sold to the highest bidder or given away at nominal prices to Vietnamese collaborators and French speculators.” - Britannica Excerpt Considering the above, it is easier to understand how these countries have become major producers but also major exporters for Rice, Coffee and Cocoa. Robusta Coffee Background Coffea canephora, commonly known as Robusta coffee, has its origins in central and western sub-Saharan Africa. Dutch botanists discovered it in its native form in the former Belgian Congo, and it was later introduced to Vietnam in 1900 after specific coffee rust disease devastated separate plantations in Ceylon(Sri Lanka) and Java (Indonesia). You might recognise these names for the famous name sakes, Ceylon Tea and Java Coffee (Arabica). It appears South East Asias has a strong history of production in not just tea, but coffee also. Coffea canephora boasts several unique features. First, it contains nearly twice the caffeine compared to Arabica beans, contributing to its bold flavour and strength, making it ideal for espresso-based drinks and commercial blends. Second, Robusta plants thrive at lower altitudes (typically below 800 meters) and in hotter climates with ample rainfall. Their resilience against diseases and pests makes them a popular choice for coffee farmers in tropical regions. Lastly, Robusta beans deliver a pronounced bitterness and are less aromatic than Arabica beans, appealing to those seeking a powerful coffee experience. Now lets have a look at The Vietnam Stock Index which is valued in Vietnamese Dong. The Vietnam Stock Index - HOSE:VNINDEX - You can clearly see a long term ascending triangle and a rising 10 month moving average. The targets and trade structure is clear and presents a great long term potential upside over 5 – 10 year time horizon. VanEck Vietnam ETF - HOSE:VNM For a shorter term play, and to take advantage of this growing economy, you could invest in the VanEck Vietnam ETF between now and 2026. - Ideally you would want the price to break out above the red line (POC) and find support above the 200 Day SMA (Blue Line). Once the 200 Day SMA is sloping upwards it would be a matter of riding the trend. - Given price has been gradually making higher lows since 2020, we can presume that this is a long term increase in demand gradually pressing up price. We have a stop placed with a 6.5% downside risk with potential for 77% return or an earlier exit if you wish with lessor percentage gained. - The structure for the trade is clear on the chart and it is there to be played. We have economic information that suggests that Vietnam is going to have a good decade. Based on all our information above and the positivity around the Vietnamese economy, there is ample opportunity over the next few years to establish a good long term allocations in the above indexes or specific stocks in Vietnam. Getting exposure to South East Asia in general is starting to seem like a smart choice. The Vietnam economy, similar to the Philippine economy we covered last week, and the South Korean economy we covered weeks ago, are all signalling that they are likely entering into golden era’s of significant growth. All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the Vietnamese stock market has performed. I hope it’s helpful.
HOSE:VNINDEXLong
by PukaCharts
VFS VinFast $0.40 Price Target after the Pump and Dump schemeShares of VFS VinFast experienced a significant surge as they made their debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange following their merger with the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) known as Black Spade. Given that a substantial 99% of the company is under the control of VinFast's founder, Pham Nhat Vuong, the limited availability of the stock renders it susceptible to increased fluctuations in its value. This situation draws a parallel with other EV SPAC deals, such as Lucid, which served as the foundation for Black Spade's initial valuation of VinFast at $23 billion. Subsequently, Lucid's shares have witnessed a decline post-listing, now being valued at less than $15 billion, representing a nearly 40% reduction compared to its $24 billion SPAC valuation in 2021. VinFast's pursuit of additional capital poses a potential challenge to its lofty valuation. CFO David Mansfield revealed that the company is engaged in discussions with various investors, including sovereign wealth funds, with the intention of securing additional funding within the next 18 months. In May, Founder Vuong had expressed the possibility of VinFast selling 50,000 EVs in the current year. As of the first seven months, the company has successfully sold over 16,000 units, inclusive of sales within Vietnam. Notably, this figure encompasses only 137 units of its VF8 model sold in the United States, which is currently the sole model available in that market. According to consultancy firm AlixPartners, it is estimated that EV manufacturers need to achieve annual sales of 400,000 vehicles to reach a breakeven point, even in China where most are grappling with financial losses amidst a fierce price competition for market share. Comparatively, VinFast's EVs are relatively expensive when contrasted with Tesla's offerings. Specifically, the Tesla Model Y is approximately $7,000 more affordable than VinFast's VF8 after accounting for federal subsidies. Considering the fundamentals, my Price Target for VFS VinFast is $0.40, for a Market Capitalization of around $1 Billion. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NASDAQ:VFSShort
by TopgOptions
6
Vietnam ETFSouth East Asia Emerging market :Vietnam Sign of uptrend holding -Candlesticks moving above MA200. Challenged MA200 and continue moving above it (circled) -Uptrend Line B 1:1 Fib extension of uptrend line A, similar magnitude within a shorter period of time(represented b the dotted line) -Retracement R1 which from Higher Low (HL) : Retrace 0.618 fib of Line A. -Retracement R2 which from Higher low (HL2): retrace 0.5fib of line B -Challenging the ichimoku cloud soon volume indicator fail to provide much information
LSE:XFVTLong
by Inquiring_H
Shortterm Pooh, Longterm HuiThe relatively small economy is one of the "big" Southeast Asian states in terms of economic growth. The gross domestic product of the Asian developing countries was $ 216 billion in 2017 and is expected to grow by 6.5 percent in 2018. Despite an authoritarian communist regime, the market is considered open, privatization of state-owned enterprises is progressing slowly, and the current debt-equity ratio of 62 percent of gross domestic product is below that of Germany, with foreign debt of around $ 90 billion at 42.6 percent of GDP. The savings rate of the 56.5 million inhabitants is a high 28% of GDP and the national income is 41% in the services sector, 33% in the industrial sector and only 16% in the agricultural sector. Foreign direct investment increased the Vietnam index by 48 percent in 2017. Most of the capital comes from Asian companies such as China, Japan and Korea. The advantages of the young, well educated and, of course, cheap workforce have been recognized by the Asian neighbors. Many factories use the Asian workbench, and sales and earnings soar and stock prices soar to April 2018. Now, the sharp rise since the high point of 1,211 points has been corrected and is likely to bottom out somewhere between 661 and 778 points (61,8 - 78,6% Fibo). There the entry into the market should be looked for and the StoppLoss is from today's point of view is at 644 points. Note: It is important to consider the US dollar before getting started. If the US dollar rises, the external debt will increase at the same time and could, in the event of a significant increase, lead to a great fiscal deficit.
HOSE:VNINDEXShort
by StefanBode
GBPJPY analysis for Week 5Hi traders, on weekly perspective we can see that last week GBPJPY failed to remain above 155.00 key level. Very weak bullish candle close might indicate that GJ now want to go down to find a lower high. On daily time frame, I can see a huge shooting star candlestick that closed below the 8 EMA. We have a 0.168 Fibonacci line-up perfectly with my key level at 152.500 which could be my first target on the pair. However, this is just a short-term bearish trade. My long term bias on this pair is still quite bullish !
Short
by MinhDucPham
GBPAUD analysis for Week 5As I mention in my analysis last week, my long term bias on GA is pretty bearish. Last week, we came all the way to 1.7700 to test the 0.618 Fibonacci level. After that, GA formed a evening star candle, with extreme bearish close on Friday. I will expect some futher down side momentum on this particular pair, 1.72500 will be my first target. Depend on the price action around such level, I will then update my analysis on this pair. Now, I personally will wait for any retracement on H2 time frame to actually execute a short.
Short
by MinhDucPham
AUDUSD analysis for Week 5Hi traders, last 2 months what a incredible move for AUDUSD. Last week, we broke 0.8100 and create a 2-year high since May 2015. Price on Daily time frame was guided accurately by the MA. Now what I actually do is wait for the reaction of the pair around 0.8100 level of resistance. It has been tested 3 times last year and failed to closed above. My first scenario is a strong close above 0.8100. Price then find a historical level of resistance at around 0.8200, go back to retest 0.8100 then go much higher. Combined to the DXY analysis, I actually prefer this one to happen Second scenario: It's a fail break, then 0.79250 will be my next target on the pair Let's wait and see what will happen next week!
by MinhDucPham
1
Bear market slows down.Expect price going sideway for sometime. Hello traders, we all experienced XRP price going to the moon since Dec 2017 with more than 1000% gain in a month. Looking at the Fibonacci, now we are stalling at 1.2000 support area, after testing 0.786 Fib. On the H4 time frame, the bearish are slowed down with a triangle pattern and waiting for a break. All my MA are staying close to each other. Me personally would expect this pair to go sideway for sometime. My target for ripple at the end of the month is 1.60 to be reached again and 4.0 for the next month.
by MinhDucPham
2
GBPAUD analysis for Week04Short-term bullish, long-term bearish Weekly: Last month, the pair created a higher high at 1.8000, evening star formation then formed as a sign of retracement. With weekly time frame, especially on GBP pair, I would expect something like 0.786 Fibonacci to be met. 1.7000 would be my main target for GBPAUD until the end of the month. Daily: On daily time frame, after 4 weeks of consistently bearish, price found a support at 1.7100 and was pushed up slightly. This is just a retracement for a long-term bearish. I believe that price could retest the 1.7500 key level and then fall to 1.7000 by the end of January
by MinhDucPham
GBPJPY analysis for Week04Weekly: Weekly time frame is filled with choppy bullish candlesticks. We are still in a pretty clear bull trend. 155.00 was a target for my previous week. Now I would like to wait for the reaction of the pair around 155.00 once again. Daily: On the daily time frame we created a higher high last week. 8EMA is crossed over. We could continue bouncing in the parallel channel or a huge break through the 155.00 could be considered as another scenario. Let wait and see!
by MinhDucPham