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USOIL - A Long Term Outlook- 4 months ago when oil price was going down to $30/barrel, I told my colleagues to long oil because of its low price. What happened ? Oil touched $26 and started going higher. Now its $50/barrel, almost double !!! - 2 months ago when oil price was $43, I told them again to long oil due to a technical break out in the weekly chart and oil would go to $50 and that exactly what happened. Don't worry. You have not missed all of it. Well, the chance is not over to long this commodity again. Take a look at this weekly chart. What do we see: - Price has a break out of the long term downtrend line. - Bullish divergence on a weekly chart - a V-bottom ABC on a weekly chart - Support @$40-$45 (Yellow areas) - First Resistance @$60, then Second Resistance @$80. (Red areas) After reached $50, oil price may retreat a bit to $40 to $45, the support areas. From there we can start buying this commodity. There will be an inverted head and shoulders pattern if price breaks neckline at $50. So here are my recommendations: - Buy limit from $40 to $45 - Stop loss under $40 on a monthly close - Take profit half @$60 then half @$74. Stay Tuned.
FX:USOILLong
by GOLDTREND-NET
SILVER - A BIG CORRECTION IS COMING ?Silver has been in a correction since reaching $21.1/oz. The last attempt only could bring silver to $20.76/oz before again sliding to the support zone at $19.2/oz. In fact, silver has been in a range from 19.2 to 20.7 (yellow box as charted). However, the last attempt failed to made a new high and that is a first sign of bearishness. Plus price has broken down the daily trend line drawn as chart. Silver again tried to retest that trend line but seems like it can't hold above there. This is a second sign of bearishness. I think silver will fall more from here to the bottom of the box. Once the major support area at $19.2/oz can't hold, silver will be expected to fall heavily and quickly to the next major support area at $18/oz. Trade Plan: Sell 1 contract @$20.0 Stop loss over $20.8 Take profit $18.2 (might take partial profit at $19.2) Thanks for reading. Stay tuned.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD - BREAK OUT OF TRIANGLE PATTERNGold has been trading within range market, a symmetric triangle pattern to be exact. Elliot Wave theory says a triangle is overlapping five waves affair that subdivides 3-3-3-3-3. The chart shows how I draw those five waves pattern in the triangle. Wave 'e' seemed to end with a shooting star candle, which shows rejection from the resistance area 1355-1360. Gold has tried that zone 3 times but failed. If the five wave pattern unfolds exactly as shown above, gold will likely to move lower and break the support trend line. Many people would wait for a break out to trade. But as I mentioned above, accordingly to Elliot Wave plus a shooting star candle appeared on the downtrend line, I would want to short this market with a tight stop loss. Once gold breaks out to the downside, it will go quickly to the support around 1310. Otherwise a daily close above 1350 would confirm a break out to the upside. That's where I want to put my stop loss. Trade Plan: - Sell 1 contract at $1346/oz. - Stop loss above 1350 (on a daily close). - Take profit 1310. Stay Tuned.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
3
USOIL - A LONGTERM OUTLOOK (PART II)If you do not read part 1 yet, this is a link for the first part Also, if you have short position, you might wanna take partial or full profit. Check out this post also as I have shorted and already taken full profit yesterday. Here is the link So this is a predicted correction and oil will go much higher from the support area around $38-$42/barrel to $60/barrel, even $80/barrel. I think point B, the last low at $26.03 is the medium term low because: - Downward trend line was broken. - Point C, the last high at $51.64 is higher then Point A at $50.60 Therefore, if this correction as predicted and oil will find support around this yellow area $38-$42 and bounce back to $50, it could signal a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern which will lead oil to $60 or even $80. A buy is recommend at this level due to several reasons: - Oil has reached our support area $38-$42 - 38.2% Fibo Retrace of the last impulse phase is around $41.85 - 50% Fibo Retrace is at $38.75 Target: $60 then $80 Stop loss: under $35 on monthly close. Trade plan: Bought 1 contract @$41.88 Will add another contract if oil reaches $39. Stay Tuned.
FX:USOILLong
by GOLDTREND-NET
3
OIL - TARGET RECENT HIGHOil has had a nice break out candle today to the upside, breaking out of the downtrend line from $51.6 to $39.2/barrel. A 61.8% Fibonacci retrace and a downtrend line should act as a strong resistance but oil passed by quite easily. This shows that bullish momentum is very strong. Oil may accelerate fast to the recent high at $51.6/barrel. A retest of the trend line may happen but oil should rebound quickly to the upside. A long position is recommended now. If oil retreats to test trend line, I will add one more contract. Trade Plan: Buy 1 lot at $46.5/barrel Target $51.5/barrel Stop loss under $44.5 (on a daily close) If you follow me on the oil trading, you should make a lot of money by now. I have issued a few posts which made excellent profit on trading oil. First it was shorting oil from $50 to $42/barrel which made $8/barrel in profit. Then I recommended buying again from $40-$42 till now. Currently oil is trading at $46.6, that's like $5/barrel in profit. You should make a minimum of $13/barrel in profit total. And that's great. So Stay Tuned Guys !
FX:USOILLong
by GOLDTREND-NET
3
OIL - BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDEOil was in a correction from $51.6/barrel to $39.2/barrel before bouncing to $43.5/barrel. After reaching as high as $43.5/barrel, oil started to retreat to $41 level. However today oil has rebounded 5% to the upside, traded as high as $43.8/barrel. The move today confirmed the low at $39.2 as a short term low. Today move made an engulfing daily candle, which is a bullish reversal signal. Moreover, a break out of the downtrend line on the daily chart is spotted on the chart. A long position is recommended now. If you still have a long position, it is time to hold it and make big profit. Trade plan: - Bought 1 spot contract at $43.30 - Stop loss under $41 - Take profit open (update later). Thanks for reading. Stay Tuned.
FX:USOILLong
by GOLDTREND-NET
3
GOLD - Triangle PatternGold has been in a range 1330-1360 for a couple of days. A triangle pattern can be drawn as chart. A break out of the triangle pattern will signal the next move for gold. Watch the support zone by the support trend line around 1330-1335. A break down of that support area will signal a big move down. Meanwhile, the resistance zone by the resistance trend line is around 1350-1355. A break out of that resistance area will signal a move up. Please note that a triangle pattern is usually a continuation pattern. Therefore I would prefer a move down here since gold is still in a correction phase.
FX:XAUUSD
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD - One More Leg Down ?After touching support at 1330, gold turned up $27 and traded as high as 1357 . However, sellers came in and pushed it back to the 1345 level. What's next ? It seems like gold is still in a correction phase with possibly one more leg down. You can see in the chart gold is trying to climb back to the red trend line and hold above there. The last wave up from 1330 to 1357 can be drawn within a very upward sloping channel. Price is at the intersection of the green support channel line and the red trend line. If price breaks down, it will be a heavy drop. So Watch The Price Action There ! Please note that MACD indicator is having a cross over. Therefore, downtrend is continued being favored here. I have a projection of the move if price does break down those trend lines. By using AB = CD pattern, price can move lower to 1320 level.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD - Retest of Trend LineGold is retesting the trend line that was broken down when gold dropped to 1330 support level. Currently this support at 1330 holds and gold is re-bouncing to 1340-ish. If gold manages to close above the trend line, it will be a bullish signal. If not, gold will likely drop further to the next support level at 1310. You can see the resistance area (red) is around 1342-1345. While the support zone (yellow) is around 1307-1310. I believe the downtrend will continue if gold can't hold above 1350. Here is my trade plan: - Sell limit at 1343. - Stop loss above 1350 (on daily close) - Take profit at 1310. Stay Tuned !
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD - HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERNGold has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Now gold is testing the neckline support after forming a right shoulder at 1366. The neckline support should be around 1332-1337. If it breaks down from the neckline, head & shoulders pattern may kick in and gold will drop as low as 1240. Other supports are 1300-1305, 1280-1285, 1260-1265. Trade plan: - Sell Stop at 1330 or Sell on Daily Close if today price closes under 1332. - Take profit at 1250 - Stop loss at 1370. Might consider taking partial profit at supports such as 1290, 1270. Stay Tuned !
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD - RETEST OF THE LOWAfter making an inverted head and shoulders pattern as charted, Gold has re-bounced to the resistance area at 1333. However, a double bottom was formed at the resistance area 1333. Gold has retreated from that area and touched support at 1322. A retest of the recent low at 1310 can happen. Here is a small trade plan. I wanna keep it light and tight. - Sell limit @1330 - Stop loss @1334/1335 - Take profit 1st level @1320 - Take profit 2nd level @1315/1310
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD - LONG FROM SUPPORTGold has been in a correction since it made a double top at 1375. If you follow my last trade on gold and still have your short position, I think it is time to take profit. Gold will probably find some support at 1300-1305. I think there is a long opportunity here according to the chart: - Trend line support. - 38.2% Fibonacci Retrace @ 1307 - Last low at 1305 - Left structure shows major support area at 1300-1310. I see a chance that gold will re-bounce to the resistance area at 1330-1335. The 23.6% Fibonacci retrace is at 1333. Trade Plan: - Buy Limit @ 1304 - Stop Loss @1297 - Take Profit @ 1332 Stay Tuned !
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GOLDTREND-NET
3
AUDUSD - CUP & HANDLE PATTERNAfter touching 0.7500 level, AUDUSD made a retrace back to 0.7300 level as expected. If you have followed my AUDUSD monthly post, 0.7500 is the level that I mentioned pull back would happen and 0.7300 level would provide strong support. If you have added long positions at that 0.7300 level, it would be fantastic because AUDUSD is already boucing back from 0.7300 and trying to break through the resistance @0.7500 now. If you did not, the opportunity has not gone yet. Take a look at the chart. - Cup & Handle Pattern - A possible break away gap from the channel. A break out of the handle of the cup. The gap will act as strong support. - If price breaks 0.7500 level, stop loss will be triggered. Price will accelerate fast. So buy a break out would be a good choice. - Ready to buy pull back at 0.7400 level if price fails to break 0.7500 resistance and comes back to fill the gap. That would make an inverted head and shoulders pattern as well. - Target 0.7800 level. Stay Tuned.
Long
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD SHORT - PART 3 - FOMC TRADEAs I mentioned in my second part about shorting gold, I would look for some kind of reversal pattern on the daily chart to confirm my trade. Now the pattern has unfolded in both daily chart and 4hr chart. In the daily chart, gold made a spinning top candlestick yesterday which indicates some kind of trend reversal. However I have found a pattern on the 4hr chart that could actually indicate a top reversal pattern - a double top. The basic of technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself. And as a technician, your job is try to find patterns that tend to repeat or actually happen before. What do you see from the chart: - Double top @1300. Gold once broke down the neckline, it was a short term top until gold reaches 1200. - Possible double top @1287. Neckline @1277. - Overbought RSI at 1300-1303 and Overbought RSI at 1287-1290. - Divergent RSI at 1300-1303. and Divergent RSI at 1287-1290. If history repeats itself, this will be hell of a break out to the downside. So let's hope it does. Trade plan: - If you have short position @1285-1290, please keep your short position with stop loss above 1303. - If you do not have a short position, you may want to take a trade once price breaks out of the neckline to the downside. Stop loss above 1290. FED may not raise rates, it still does not matter. What matters is how they will approach the rate hike in the next meeting in July. If they are hawkish about hiking rate in July, USD will be stronger and Gold will break down. Thanks for reading and please stay tuned.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
5