Downloading...
Download

Vixcboe

"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility. Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves: The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility. In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general. I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes. I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study: - A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike. - If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal). I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames. In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
TVC:VIXLong
by TheDots
4
VIX Perfect Symmetry through the decades points to turbulence.I've posted this, interesting to say the least, pattern on VIX a few years ago and thought it might be a good time to refresh your memory following the recent (minor so far) pull-back on stocks. As you see VIX has had two major patterns where an initial rise forms a Double Top (made of two market shocks/ catalysts) and then drops back to its 10.00 Support level. The most recent of the two has been the pattern that had Double Tops made by the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the 2020 COVID flash crash. Since then (with the necessary cash injections by the U.S. Government), VIX has dropped to 15.00, below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Like I said, the Support is 10.00, which means there is time left to the markets to stay in relative peace but the 1W MA50 is already on the rise, which is an early signal that the next rise towards a Double Top formation may be starting. It is not panic time yet, but certainly something to keep in mind that volatility in the markets lies ahead. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOE:VIX
by TradingShot
4
The case for VIX right now - Margin Debt down 4.3%Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how to play the situation: The VIX (CBOE Implied volatility from Option premiums on S&P500 for the next 30 days) is currently sitting at a measly 17.12 (albeit after a massive surge from a steal of 15.22 last week) - below its historical average of 19.52. Now, since the margin debt very likely topped out in July and the market tends to follow suit a few months later (in addition to just about every thing else - monetary policy, delta, debt ceiling, labor exodus, inflation etc.), it is reasonable to assume that the probability distribution is heavily skewed to the downside for the time to come. Being able to buy the VIX - which is an estimate of future volatility - below its average at such a state seems worth considering. Based on this idea, I took the liberty to create a chart marking the following - in addition to S&P500 and VIX from 1999: (1) Tops in margin debt (Black verticals) (2) Bottoms in VIX before crashes (Cyan verticals) (3) Sell signals based on concurrent bearish DIV in RSI+MACD (Red verticals) (4) Beginning of market crashes (red cross) (5) Current VIX level (orange vertical) As we can see, the S&P500 do usually take a big tumble a couple of months after tops in margin debt. More interestingly is the VIX bottoms, however - the VIX usually also bottom out some time before markets crash (this makes perfect sense, as bottoms represent states of the market where very few expect volatility). Thus, although it is hard to time the markets, this might be one of the very few really good Risk adjusted bets you can find right now. My strategy since the end of June has been to just sell a little bit of my stock portfolio every week to buy some VIX, and then sell some VIX contracts during periods of small volatility spikes to cope with the future premiums over time. I bought a massive position on Friday and another one today due to the Margin Debt reading. I will continue to buy as long as complacency dominates the market. On another note, I always use historical data to weight my bets according to the Kelly Criterion (ex: www.frontiersin.org) The simplest way to trade the VIX unless you are familiar with derivative platforms is to buy ETFS such as VXX, VIXY, VOOL.DE etc* Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I urge everyone to always do their own research, and never take the word of other for granted. In addition, never take advise from someone who has nothing to lose from giving it to you nor follow the advise themselves - that is why I disclose my positions. I wish you all well! Good luck :)
SP:SPXLong
by TheDots
VIX vs S&P500 A simple correlation for buy/sell signalsVIX has been trading within a Channel Down since late April 2020 after the markets started to correct themselves following the COVID led March 2020 crash. I have plotted the S&P500 on the chart and as you see from the comparison, the pattern is quite useful in determining when to sell stocks and when to buy. When VIX enters its Lower Lows zone, S&P500 starts to correct. If not immediately, then at least some days after it records a lower low from its previous price. Exception is August 6, 2020 when after the VIX hit the Lower Lows zone of the Channel Down, S&P500 continued to rise but still dropped lower than the VIX hit point even though it took it around 1 month to do so. At the same time, when the VIX hits the Lower Highs zone of the Channel, it represents an optimal opportunity to buy stocks as it where S&P roughly makes its bottom. Right now VIX is coming off a (near) Lower High and still has some way to go before hitting the Lower Lows Zone. This indicates that S&P should continue to rise, at least for the current month. Of course every pattern can be broken and this one will at some point but it is a fact that for over 1 year it has been giving the most consistent buy/ sell signals. Until it gets invalidate, the trend is your friend. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> sikret --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOE:VIX
by TradingShot
8
VOLATILITY B WAVENew all-time highs in the market combined with a creeping VIX are cause for some alarm. Inflation hedges/bets seems to be the talk of late with inflation on the rise.. and this is not unwise considering that money supply is off the chart and velocity is sure to pick up... although velocity is not a necessary component of inflation. Remember that the market is forward looking and when something becomes obvious to you, you are are usually late to that fact. I believe volatility is bottoming in this range and is very likely to start the B wave of a larger wedge. I had expected this to begin sooner. If this is indeed a new, larger wedge, then perhaps it's even bigger than I anticipated. I also believe the market is quite a ways off from any major crash like we had in March of 2020...perhaps years out. But that does not mean we will not have sharp drops with periods of volatility.. I tend to think we are nearing that now. Be on the lookout for market noise and flush-outs. There are likely to be some decent buying opportunities made available in many stocks soon. Hold fast.
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
4
Volatility is here to stayRecord inflows and volume reported for vix related derivatives in January. Markets are increasingly getting worried about the bubblenomics that the fed has been pursuing investigating cases like GME may be a symptom of an unhealthy market environment. Rampant speculation has insisted since March boosting asset values but at the cost of what? This is a money game and the players with the deepest pockets always win. History repeats and retails investors get left with holding the bag time and time again. Maybe in the new age of finance this time will be different we will see.... January 26. I am Long Vix
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Bearliever
Being Brave when others are fearful. VIX near all-time highContinuation of my previous VIX idea. RSI just crossed 70 and Volumes show that Long Volatility is a crowded trade. I will open the position with the 50% of my idle cash so NOT All-in but not a small bet. I am sure traders can find better/higher prices, but i just don't want to lose this opportunity. SL @97.13, [email protected], Risk/Reward 2 as usual. IMPORTANT NOTE: DO NOT OPEN A MARGIN POSITION with this trade or in this environment, we are in a thin liquidity market. You want to provide liquitidy for margin callers, not demand it for your margin call.
CBOE:VIXShort
by nikvo1990
2
ridethepig | VIX Positional PlayLet me begin by congratulating all shorts from the 85 highs , perfect timing in another flawless VIX swing traded live together...btw that is now sharing its significant anniversary moves with a historic crash in Global Equities. Mission accomplished! Sellers of Vol can now really consider themselves as an integral player caught in decent profit taking areas which also happen to be the middle of a WIDE range and to put the cherry on top, buyers of Volatility are still under further protection from the virus impact.... it's time to pay attention. As you look at it be sure to notice how the inner strength which belonging to those who bought the initial breakout, failed immediately on the 85 target as expected. We could go on to consider many points which are worth considering, but for the sake of today's example we are going to look at the bullish cash here. Before we turn to the next strategy, we must sum things up: Volatility Cycles you see, project a point in defensive or attacking behaviour as they expect strategic advances of capital flows. It always comes down to the same situation: any swing complex which could be called sound, must always take in the brutal component of Volatility. It is the centrepiece for measuring confidence...and the return to 'normal' life after covid-19 (whatever that means) is all down to confidence. How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc. The great charter we have traded together so far has played a vital part in predicting decisions and the economic cycle down. Now it is no surprise...It was an essential ingredient for the insane moves I forecast right on time in Unemployment claims. Economists are the unsung heroes of the financial world and their role as academics will only be recognised by politicians by the time it is too late. Selecting important movers and shakers, preparing flows and insuring facts and history align and summarising the strategy precisely all require expertise, intelligence, care and effort. The moment one starts the think about it, one realises how great an impact economic strategy must have on the development of finance. The VIX is in a position of being able to bring together its own herd of early sellers - those betting on the virus to be a one and done quick bounce, then everything is neatly protected again and the shepherd can turn to other matters with a clear mind. No...the stupid sheep will run away from the shepherd - watch-out for the flock, smells to me like the virus ending has one final manoeuvre and a sweep of 100 for a blockbuster headline would be an easily won ending. Remember, the necessity for sellers to clear shorts from the 85 highs is both strategic and planned! We are entering into key value support. This case for a fresh high in VIX would coincide with a fresh low in Global Equities, another round of demand for USD on the G10 FX board (see related ideas below)....it opens many doors, correct handling of the strategy indicates an extremely difficult few weeks ahead and requires exact knowledge of how to play the advance. So I must leave you, dear reader to your own devices, and hope that fate is kind to you. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | VIX Completing the Swing to 85!!A Vix swing, which did not require "majority" or "consensus", rolled forward under the noses of retail and even some of the larger macro hands. It advanced incredibly far reaching a high of 84.8 ... Don't be a dick for a tick !!! Finally there is an opportunity to clear all targets in the breakthrough. As an example of this, let us turn to the well-know chart VIX - Capitulation Waters. There followed the initial 38 target and 85 extension. The attack was carried out with sufficient substance via Covid-19, if the panic subsides or is reaching a "peak" then Vol must fight for places to make a stand. So the natural indications are 38 and 25 (now that sellers can advance once more). Until this excellent swing was played, the closing of the highs was more of an ideal than reality... Coronavirus turned this ideal into the said reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the notional restraint of price gives way to an information block. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre, the practicality of VIX at these levels creates two new inevitabilities: (1) ... Recession (2) ... Consumer Confidence reaching decade highs Here I would like to point out that, selling VIX remains the correct strategic plan; you can see why in the note in Gold's move. Buyers forsakes the main plan - and tries once more to get in the 1700 highs; but only manages to do so because sellers failed to spot a subtle resource . Naturally in VIX it is pragmatic to aim for 38 and 25 driving Vol buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to subordinate the strategically necessary plan to the idea of recessionary effect. As a whole, the classical weakness for art! Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts and etc coming! I hope it has helped, finally time to unwind a flawless +500% swing to the topside from Q419. Well done all those that caught the move!
CBOE:VIXShort
by ridethepig
23