Downloading...
Download

Vixlong

VIX - Monthly - BIG UPSIDE ON VIXOn the monthly and daily chart, I see VIX making a bullish comeback which suggest we are about to see crazy volatility in the stock market. Combine that with the recent insider selling from Jeff Bezos of around $2 billion worth of amazon shares and Kimbal Musk (Elon Musk's brother) selling around $100 million worth of tesla shares on Nov 5th and then Elon Musk himself proposing to sell his own shares, We are more than likely to see a market pull back or crash in the coming weeks.
TVC:VIXLong
by abm-trading
Time to sell SPY/Buy VIX imo.Hi folks! If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy) and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink. - Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020 - Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!) - Massive divergence on RSI - VIX at very low levels In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence. Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated), and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market. I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!) of my portfolio in such contracts- DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well! :) Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
2
VIX LONG CALLS OCT $16/17: POP SOON?!I bought 120 of these. Not cheap not for faint hearted. I do NOT recommend this strategy for investors. Pure Speculation, be warned! You need cast-iron cajones to hold this position, been buying these all last week as it gets crushed, the $17 were ~4.90, $16s averaged at 5.30. These got a lotta time in them, patient watch & wait for the pop. Target ~$24-26 will get there fast if ES1 sells off. Triple witching on Friday 20th. GLTA
TVC:VIXLong
by DaddySawbucks
19
The case for VIX right now - Margin Debt down 4.3%Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how to play the situation: The VIX (CBOE Implied volatility from Option premiums on S&P500 for the next 30 days) is currently sitting at a measly 17.12 (albeit after a massive surge from a steal of 15.22 last week) - below its historical average of 19.52. Now, since the margin debt very likely topped out in July and the market tends to follow suit a few months later (in addition to just about every thing else - monetary policy, delta, debt ceiling, labor exodus, inflation etc.), it is reasonable to assume that the probability distribution is heavily skewed to the downside for the time to come. Being able to buy the VIX - which is an estimate of future volatility - below its average at such a state seems worth considering. Based on this idea, I took the liberty to create a chart marking the following - in addition to S&P500 and VIX from 1999: (1) Tops in margin debt (Black verticals) (2) Bottoms in VIX before crashes (Cyan verticals) (3) Sell signals based on concurrent bearish DIV in RSI+MACD (Red verticals) (4) Beginning of market crashes (red cross) (5) Current VIX level (orange vertical) As we can see, the S&P500 do usually take a big tumble a couple of months after tops in margin debt. More interestingly is the VIX bottoms, however - the VIX usually also bottom out some time before markets crash (this makes perfect sense, as bottoms represent states of the market where very few expect volatility). Thus, although it is hard to time the markets, this might be one of the very few really good Risk adjusted bets you can find right now. My strategy since the end of June has been to just sell a little bit of my stock portfolio every week to buy some VIX, and then sell some VIX contracts during periods of small volatility spikes to cope with the future premiums over time. I bought a massive position on Friday and another one today due to the Margin Debt reading. I will continue to buy as long as complacency dominates the market. On another note, I always use historical data to weight my bets according to the Kelly Criterion (ex: www.frontiersin.org) The simplest way to trade the VIX unless you are familiar with derivative platforms is to buy ETFS such as VXX, VIXY, VOOL.DE etc* Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I urge everyone to always do their own research, and never take the word of other for granted. In addition, never take advise from someone who has nothing to lose from giving it to you nor follow the advise themselves - that is why I disclose my positions. I wish you all well! Good luck :)
SP:SPXLong
by TheDots
How Stocks Can Go Up In a Bear Market.Here are some hypothetical numbers I formulated, which by the way you can take with a grain of salt. It is for entertainment purposes only. Some Tabloids you may find interesting: 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot. Jun 29, 2019 Algorithmic trading is accounted for around 60-73% of the overall United States equity trading. Feb 5, 2019 Considered by many wildlife biologists to be one of the most intelligent land animals of North America, bears possess the largest and most convoluted brains relative to their size of any land mammal. Jun 10, 2008 It is thought that loneliness may contribute to cognitive decline through multiple pathways, including physical inactivity, symptoms of depression, poor sleep and increased blood pressure and inflammation. Loneliness has also been found to increase the risk of developing dementia by as much as 20%. Loneliness, it seems, can lead to long-term "fight-or-flight" stress signaling, which negatively affects immune system functioning. Simply put, people who feel lonely have less immunity and more inflammation than people who don't. This increases the risk of contracting deadly diseases and viruses by ten-fold. Aug 4, 2020
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bearliever
Ponzi Factor Invisible. Hello Trenders and Volatility hunters. Scanning hungry for results, I couldn´t belive my eyes when I saw SP500 Volatility Index. This is unbelivable, the most easy and best ROI with security from Feds in the package included, in my best knowledge. Here is hidden the "millionaire gentleman club" , wonderful. I would appreciate every tip as a newbie. The chart does not require any clarification, is a "no comment" one. At this point I will say good luck but as you don´t need it I say BE HEALTHY. M.M.M Make Motherfuc.in Money Be wise: don´t work for the money, make your money work for you.
CBOE:VIXLong
by DeFontain
VOLATILITY B WAVENew all-time highs in the market combined with a creeping VIX are cause for some alarm. Inflation hedges/bets seems to be the talk of late with inflation on the rise.. and this is not unwise considering that money supply is off the chart and velocity is sure to pick up... although velocity is not a necessary component of inflation. Remember that the market is forward looking and when something becomes obvious to you, you are are usually late to that fact. I believe volatility is bottoming in this range and is very likely to start the B wave of a larger wedge. I had expected this to begin sooner. If this is indeed a new, larger wedge, then perhaps it's even bigger than I anticipated. I also believe the market is quite a ways off from any major crash like we had in March of 2020...perhaps years out. But that does not mean we will not have sharp drops with periods of volatility.. I tend to think we are nearing that now. Be on the lookout for market noise and flush-outs. There are likely to be some decent buying opportunities made available in many stocks soon. Hold fast.
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
4
VIX Bottom played outVIX bottom play for the next 7 days. Don't use any technical indicator on VIX if it's too low, just move: I don't need big timeframe to playing this out, so 7 days is far enough. Max profit: $90 Probability of Profit: 47% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 42% Buy Power: $210 (max loss without management) Max loss with my risk management: ~ $100 Tasty IVR: 11.3 Expiry: 7days Buy 3 VIX Mar24' 19 Call Sell 3 VIX Mar24' 20 Call Debit call spread for 0.7 debit each Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $19 Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 75% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 0.95 credit) If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
TVC:VIXLong
by TanukiTrade
1
☢️ 💣Market Volmadeggon: VIX – sky is the limitHi guys, is this VIX chart is like „deja vu“?? At last financial crisis at 2008 the simmilar pattern created like recent months. Treasury spread yields telling the same story again in lower pane. After first cross of its 12-month MA it takes 5 months to firs bigger surge in TVC:VIX . Then it takes 13 bars to yield spread approach to 2%, then volmadeggon begun…. The situation on chart looks familiar now... If history repeats this time not be different but much bigger than 2008 After first cross 12 month MA of Yields spread it takes 3 bars to new higher high on TVC:VIX 37.5 in 2008. This month its 12 bars from TVC:VIX new higher high 85.5 when COVID-19 pandemy started.You can observe same massive vix squeeze as in 2008. So its looks like this year 2021 will be EPIC & LEGENDARY in financial markets As you notice in chart, my target is at 2.61 Fibbonacci retracement level because this level was reached at 2008 too. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tomasgei
8
ridethepig | VIX Exploding 📌 ridethepig | VIX Exploding Morning all... a short post, but one that is full of dramatic events. The 'discovered naked short' from wsb is a wildfire burning...the cleanest place to see the damage is in vol. This discovered vector in GME clarified the damaged relationship between central banks and market pricing while QE infinity provides a cover a 'risk free' environment. It's very similar to the round trip explosion we traded last year from 12 to 85 and back again. When you pin shorts (the root of all evil), whether its GME, BB or VIX... it has enormous mobility. The magic of reddit has exposed Melvin Capital, Blackrock (own +/- 10% of GME) et al, while Citadel cheerlead in the background and will of course be fine and make money either way. Let us take a closer look at the possible moves with the VIX; I find that the 44 pivot which is in the crosshairs can do one of two things; a) The offer can evaporate rather quickly, even if it was previously nailed by barrier, which will trigger a momentum gambit towards 85. b) We can attack and our opponent (sellers) without any anxiety step back in to occupy the control since it is their jurisdiction, i.e. one ladder that is controlled by your opponent. Now consider the latest chart update: Here a) was very much dependent on the October 2020 highs. Bear in mind how unafraid the buyers which are moving with force are. The wildfires are capable of satisfying a healthy appetite from retailers. with that in mind we are going to see capitulation across some more names. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
8
VIX "wall of fear is approaching."VIX "wall of fear is approaching." What characterizes the volatility index indicates increased activity. The analysis shows that fractal construction has taken place in the volatility index. We have reached the ascending stage of this fractal. This indicates increased price movements for different asset classes. This phenomenon indicates panic. Although it can also be seen that a few days, perhaps a week of uncertainty ensues. We can also see that this may be temporary, before another even more significant correction.
TVC:VIXLong
by meszaros
19
UVXY Potential This idea varies from my other ideas because I focus primarily on the fundamentals instead of the technicals. Details are provided on chart. I plan on purchasing shares, not options, due to the low price. From a macro perspective, this upcoming 1-3 months may possess an immense amount of volatility. I will keep this idea updated, as I don't plan on longing quite yet; I'm interested to see what the $900bn stimulus check will do. But as always, do your own DD. Happy trading!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by tacosaucewalkin
7
THE NEXT WAVE OF VOLATILITYMarket volume is drying up and we're seeing historic put:call ratio's on the indices. We have the necessary ingredients in the cake for a another wave of volatility to hit the market. Please see my previous post about the VIX and the compression patterns that often occur. Volatility tends to get bottled up and then erupt. We are likely in a bottling-up zone where fear is gone, and all is calm.. I suppose this can continue but I like to think we're nearing a volatility cycle low. I am of the opinion that the VIX is in a new, giant, price wedge. If you look at this chart, I think (a) will be tagged.. but perhaps it already has? I don't know. It could be now or it could be weeks from now. I'm speculating on the pattern some, but I will be looking to hedge my portfolio with long calls in volatility over the coming weeks.. and even months if necessary. I have learned to completely ignore mainstream news and focus entirely on the data. The math doesn't lie. People do. Something to think about- Let's pretend I'm right about this being a new, giant price wedge. If this forecast turns out to hold water, then the market is likely to go significantly higher over the next couple of years.. I don't want to even mention numbers because this could be a big pattern. Regardless, I'm looking for the next wave of volatility to come rolling in. I've been around long enough to know that the market can creep & creep for weeks or months before pivots. Timing a market top is extremely difficult so one must not be too biased or emotional. Another possibility: What if the VIX is already out of the cage? What if this isn't a new compression wedge? This pattern is my "optimistic" perspective for the markets.. It's possible that the vix could take off like a rocket to new highs where markets completely unravel. In time, the fundamentals WILL take over. I have no idea how much time we have.. all I can do is analyze the data.
TVC:VIX
by gghsusa
8