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Quickpost on ThetaTheta has finally broken its resistance and I see a lot of upside for the rest of the year, maybe into Q1 next year. I am looking to take profit at about $40 and if/when I see some consolidation patterns I will double up at major fib levels with some of the margin I create in the move. Quick look at technicals We are above the SMAs on this break out and the MACD is positive and above the signal line, and both are above zero. Also, the 9 seasons rainbow shows we have established a base and afterwards have established a clear uptrend. On a higher time frame the volatility indicators suggest we are in a uptrend and we have broken above the 20SMA. On the 4 hour we can see that the price action has retested the resistance line as support. It may need to retest further but the lower time frame volatility is likewise favoring a uptrend. Trade Management I am keeping my stop where it is for now until it seems that the chop around finding support on previous resistance is done then I will move my stop loos to guaranteed profit while I let this run. I do expect more chop around each fib level as we move up but I have a good entry for what I feel is a good RRR on a long shot.
Long
by This_Guhy
Bitcoin Volatility and Volume based system still biased bearish.A new month and a new iteration of this system. I developed this volatility and volume based system to help me with the wider view of markets and to help me steady my hands when it is time to let your winners run and also help me cut my losers. It works for me on various time frames so long as I am patient and don't overthink things. I am not qualified to give financial advice though. Key Components Volatility Stop: This is based on the average true range, which is a measure of volatility with a standard look back period of 14. The VSTOP default look back is 20 and on this chart is formatted to appear as dots either above or below price depending on if price has been moving up or down. It helps to determine bias as well as dynamically chart support and resistance Volatility Stop Multiple Time Frame (MFT): an application of the VSTOP but set to a different time frame than the main chart. In this instance it is set to 3x the timeframe of the main chart and would be the quarterly VSTOP. It likewise charts dynamic support and resistance and can identify a major change in trend. On Balance Volume with EMAs: The on balance volume helps look at how much buying and selling volume is really occurring in the market. It can also be used with peak to peak divergences and so if you see an general uptrend will falling OBV you can see that the uptrend is not volume supported and you may see a bearish reversal. Same with valley to valley lows and bullish divergence. To help visualize changes in the OBV against itself there are the OBV Exponential Moving Averages. A cross of the on balance volume with a EMA means that the OBV has roughly been flat for a certain time period and moving flat is the first sign that a trend may be consolidating for reversal. Likewise if the 10 and 20 EMAs cross that is a sign that the OBV has moved sideways and may be poised for reversal. Supplemental Components The humble 20 period SMA: the 20 period SMA is a core SMA as it forms the basis of the default bollinger band midline and is a close approximate of the 20 EMA, which is the baseline of the Keltner channel. During uptrends lots of technical buying happens at the 20 and crossing the 20SMA with a whole body candle above or below is generally a sign of strength or weakness in a trend. MACD: one of the most used indicators and it can provide a lot of high quality signals when used with divergences on the MACD itself and the MACD Histogram as well as when the MACD crosses its signal line or zero. I generally supplement my MACD charts with the MACD EMAs but I won't be going into that here. The Analysis Bitcoin has been below the VSTOP and the MTF VSTOP for three whole periods and has begun this fourth period below as well. There has been some candle wicks above the VSTOPs but so far there has been profit taking at those levels and if we are looking at the VSTOP as dynamic support and resistance they have acted very well as resistance. The history so far is pretty clear, when the VSTOPs are concurrently bearish price action falls below the 20 SMA. Buying 50% below the 20 month SMA has been reasonable given our two data points. It may take a couple of months of chop for it to happen. We only have two previous data points to observe but I am not taking a gamble right now with a long until I see the VSTOPS flip bullish. Historically that takes more than just 4 periods. The OBV has slipped the 10 EMA which further supports the idea that this sideways action is biased bearish. By itself the OBV would not mean much. Remember, the OBV going sideways or slightly below the 10EMA could just be a sign of continuation but a look at the lower time frames does not really support that. Unless there is some massive continuation pattern I have not seen (an ascending triangle, a W pattern, a bump and run bottom, etc). Likewise the MACD histogram is falling which suggest a MACD-Signal cross is likely. Once again, a MACD-Signal cross could just be a sign of sideways consolidation but there is no pattern I see that suggest continuation to the upside at this point, and the Volatility situation is still bearish My personal Posture I have a small short out there on a volatile alt. Aside from that I am stacking what USD/T I can for when I see this tension break. My linked idea regarded a potential ABC correction shows where I plan to enter crypto for a long investment and I am prepared to hold for a while. The other two lined ideas shew where used this system to predict the bear market was upcoming. I am aware that this posture has me against a lot of traders with a lot more experience than me. But if I am wrong the move will be long enough that I still make enough money to stay in the game one more cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
8
DASHBTC apparently developing a head and shoulders at resistanceI had mocked up these bands on the chart with the intent of looking for places to take profit on upside moves but it appears that Dash isn't going to make it through the orange zone just yet. There has been a downward channel with a slight broadening aspect to it since 2017 and seeing a head and shoulders at channel resistance does not make me confident that price will be able to break through at this time. The target on the head and shoulders is shown with a fib retracement that and the primary targets are going to be the 1.618 and 2 levels. That puts us within this half mast continuation pattern on the flagpole that began the multi-year consolidation that created the orange zone. My system for determining bias shows that there was some reason for hope on the weekly chart when DASHBTC hit the VSTOP MTF x3 but we have not followed through. And it also seems that we have slipped the 20 week (again). The MACD is below zero and it appears to be poised to cycle another bearish MACD-Signal cross. It seems that Dash is poised to drop around 55 to 66 percent against bitcoin. Linked ideas will show reasons to be bearish about crypto. I still think Dash has a lot of long term potential but it is certainly getting dogged right now. I am certainly going to keep a long term watch on DASHBTC and especially this trendline resistance. Dashusd has been great for swing trades for me for a long time but every time I look to hodl dash it betrays me.
Short
by This_Guhy
6
Symmetrical Triangle Play on DashThis is a simple support and resistance play on Dash with the basic adage: the trend is your friend into the end. We have a 50 day uptrend and a three week consolidation so far within this triangle. That means we have support and resistance trades that really don't require that much overthinking. I am long at the triangle support with a stop loss as shown in the main chart. Take profit will be just short of the fib retracement golden pocket at $345. Risk to Reward is a nice 14. The dotted line is the height of the triangle and it concurs with the fib retracement target at 1.618. Thirty minutes is a pretty low time frame to be looking for hidden bullish divergence but it is there in the chart below. Given we have a 50 day uptrend and that contains a 3 week consolidation pattern we are looking to simply set a stop loss at support with a bit of validation from the indicator. This is our third touch on the triangle support so it lets us get a tight stop on low time frames. The bearish scenario is rather than being a consolidation pattern this is an ABC correction and we would have downside targets around 160 or 120 ash shown below. The rational for that trade would be that the blue line had flipped from support to resistance. Should the price break down from the triangle I would be watching it to retest the previous triangle support as resistance before taking a short. In other words, according to my system I would not be short just yet. And I want to give a fair hearing to the bearish scenario. Based in daily indicators alone this chart looks really bad. But as I said in the beginning, this is a play on continuation to the upside and the triangle support is currently being validated, so I am taking my long in the face of this brutal daily chart. If you are familiar with my system then the chart below makes a lot of sense. I use the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP to determine trend and dynamically chart support and resistance. This play is using continuation to assume the VSTOP will act as dynamic support in this instance hold. If I am wrong I will be stopped out in short order. The linked ideas show some relatively low time frame formations that made target in short order. The BTC head and shoulders did suppose that the formation could over-perform due to how tenuous the bitcoin situation was but when price broke down it went right to the 1.618 fib retracement level before pamping. Likewise on the dashbtc target. I was hoping for more continuation but price went right to the 1.618 level then dumped. This time I am going to be agnostic when it comes to hoping for some over-performance. I will be taking all of my profits, thank you.
Long
by This_Guhy
Bitcoin Bollinger bands, NVT show signs of weakening priceIntroduction Bitcoin is in a very confusing time right now. There are lots of bullish sentiment happening with bitcoin but technically it is looking like the bullishness is beginning to fade and the price action is beginning to look bearish. Whether this is the first sell off or bear trap and price resumes higher in a macro trend remains to be seen. This idea will be focusing on the monthly and weekly bollinger bands and the NVT, with a couple of extra indicators. Bollinger Band Analysis Bollinger bands can be great tools at various stages of the market cycle, especially when combined with other indicators to verify support and resistance. They can also cut you deep when the bollinger bands fail as you think they may act as support and resistance. Once interesting way I have tinkered with the bollinger bands over time is to compare what is going on with the weekly and monthly when it comes to the upper and lower limits. During large upside impulses you will see the weekly upper limit completely above the monthly upper limit. Not shown here, but during these impulses ups you can even see the daily bollinger band complete outside the monthly BB at times. When that happens the times are heady but the hangover will be severe. One sign the party is over is the weekly Bollinger band has completely moved back within the monthly bollinger band. The chart below will show that happened this week. The last two times the weekly bollinger band moved into the monthly bb bitcoin was in a uptrend that ended up being a bull trap and the next move was over 50% to the lower limit of the monthly bollinger band before a serious bounce. Right now that would but us at about $24k. NVT and Hash Ribbon Analysis One thing probably not on most people's radar is the NVT, in particular because most people don't use this color coded version by aamonkey. I have been looking at this on the daily and weekly timeframes to help clear up some signals and right now the NVT is acting exactly like it did last bear market's descending triangle. After a massive sell off the NVT goes green and then price rallies and the top occurs around when the NVT goes red on the daily. This doesn't work for people looking to snipe trades but does let us know broadly what is going on. The weekly NVT trend is likewise similar and something I pointed out when Bitcoin was topping. When the NVT goes above the red limit it signals the end of a bull market and severe retracements. It is only when the NVT finally passes into the green bands that price begins its recovery and never returns to those price levels. The main weakness of this analysis is we have limited history. Many bitcoin investors look to the hash ribbon and its signals to buy and sell. Generally that is a winning strategy. With all of the analysis I have done my gut is telling me that the most recent buy signal is very similar to the buy signal right before the C19 dump. BTC is in the process of basing out when the hash ribbon signals a buy and then very short uptrend occurs then a very rapid dump. That would be a very nice trend to trade due to how quickly traders could get in the money buying the dip. It is painful for holders because the capitation signal came to late to be useful. My personal hierarchy of indicators puts the NVT over the hash ribbons, especially when comparing the weekly chart and the NVT goes above the red limit and then drops into the yellow zone. I see a very high probability that the NVT has to go to green on the weekly. If you view bitcoin for what it was designed to be, which is a trustless payment network with its own native currency , then when the network is overvalued (weekly NVT in the red) you sell the currency into strength and when the network is undervalued (NVT in the green) you look to buy the network's currency during dips. Bearish Scenarios The available history on bitcoin shows that it appears to "like" descending triangles as its topping formation. There is a lot of bearish divergence to work out as well. Since 2014 BTC has formed these descending triangle the Stochastic drops from overbought and falls to oversold and price seems to settle on the monthly Keltner channel before recovery, at least with candle bodies. A repeat seems very feasible. A double top is also possible but that hasn't been bitcoins history. A bullish scenario This has become my minority position but it is what I believe those still bullish will see if price retraces as I see it happening. Both a W and a descending triangle can have a roughly equal low and I think many traders caught in a descending triangle don't see it because the are looking for a W. Likewise, people, such as myself right now, may not see a potential W forming because they think they will be getting the triangle. People looking for a repeat of 2013 will be looking for the W. The most emotionally painful scenario we could see is a symmetrical triangle. This would bet both bulls and bears keyed up and I think would result in the most people losing the most money. Closing thoughts For a while lots of people in crypto have looked to BTC to be the bellweather of the whole market and I am beginning to think that relationship is weakening more and more. I have thrashed out a system to help me determine trends and identify potential key reversals. According to that system BTCUSD has this month to go above and hold above $50,037 to clear both the monthly and MTF VSTOP x3 VSTOP. As the MVF and VSTOP very recently flipped bearish my operating assumption is the bear market just begun. Other cryptos have not shown this weakness. I am no longer comfortable thinking that weakness in BTC will drag down the broader market, and I am not comfortable thinking that a rising altcoin tide will raise bitcoin's boat. More and more I don't think we can say bitcoin is bullish, buy the market, or bitcoin is bearish, sell the market. As I mentioned in the NVT analysis section, Bitcoin is a currency on a trustless payment network. Digital gold is branding and marketing and I think those that are buying it as digital gold, no matter how smart or wealthy they are, or how many laser eyes are posted, are buying it for the wrong reason. If you view it as currency on a trustless system then you buy the currency when the network is undervalued based on your timeframe and sell it when the network is overvalued, again based on your timeframe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
19
Ethereum Daily EMAs have stacked bullish, SMAs likely to followThere is a lot of power in having the moving averages sorted out either fully bullishly or fully bearishly for people that like to have some confirmation that a prolonged move is coming. During consolidation periods EMAs and SMAs are often not in full agreement because they move at different speeds and people hoping to go long early on the EMA signals may miss the traders using a SMA system looking for resistance. So when both EMAs and SMAs get sorted out then both sets of traders are looking for blue sky moves. The chart below zooms in and shows that the EMAs (on the right) as a few days ago have fully sorted themselves out fully bullishly. Price is above the price action and every EMA is above the the EMAs with a longer time period. The SMAs still need to sort themselves out based on their lower nature. This unsorting on the SMAs may take a month. The 20 should be above the 100 in short order and (with a high probability if) when the 50 gets above the 100 SMA the stack should be complete. There may be some thrash and sideways action which takes a while to get sorted but with the optimism in Ethereum I predict the SMAs will ultimately stack bullish. The main chart shows some previous gains on similar signals, just holding until the 20 and 50 finally cross bearishly. And of course, you can always get in again when the stack is bullish and stay safe during the chop. I very recently flipped my bias on ETH after being bearish using my volatility set ups, which is my preferred system of setting up bias. THe EMAS stacking bullish helps me confirm that post because it suggest with a high probability the bullishness on the daily will carry over onto the weekly. The linked post will show that I flipped my bias on ETH because the breakdown that was occurring on the monthly was reversed the last week of the month and my volatility system showed support was confirmed. Just to make the chart a little noisy I also showed where the EMAs and SMAs have stacked fully bearish. Bear markets are often quicker and more viscous the bull markets and so having that understanding can help you be on the right side of trades. Now the stack is bullish on the EMAs I will be using a basic HA and moving average strategy. Two shadowless green candles on the 12 hour after pull back and I buy the dip. Supplement with some basic charting and divergence indicators and I am good to go. Below is a quick look at the volatility system I use to determine my bias. My linked idea will show the monthly chart. The daily on the left is a clear bullish chart, with the price above the VSTOP and MFF VSTOPx3 and the 20 period SMA. Also, MACD is crossed bullishly. On the 3 day the MTF VSTOP needs to be broken and confirmed ad the price needs to say above the standard VSTOP level around 2719. The weekly chart has just over 2 days to stay above the MTF VSTOP and hopefully in the next week or two confirm the MACD cross. Ultimately I hope to get out of my trades at the 2 line on the fib chart. But that will be another idea. As I mentioned in a previous idea, finding support on the 1 line is incredibly bullish. Also, finding resistance at the 1.272 (literally could not stay a whole candle body above for more than 2 days in a row) shows that the fib channel as a whole is predictive.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by This_Guhy
3
ADA and ADA.D and crazy targetsADA has had an extraordinarily good last 5 days and we are going into the weekend before the weekly candle closes so a lot of the observations on the chart are still pending. This post is just another iteration of my volatility and momentum system that I have developed over the last couple of years. Just grinding what works for me. The Thumbs up are what has flipped bullish and needs to be maintained till the weekly close. The question marks are what still need to develop and are unlikely to develop this period. Getting everything to be thumbs up on the weekly can get us a high probability impulse. Last time we went from 15c to over $2 before the weekly VSTOP flipped. We can outdo that this impulse. The chart below Using the double ichimoku clouds for trends and volatility we can see price action has popped above the kijun (crypto) settings and both clouds are bullish. This is a very good place to be if you are long. The On Balance Volume EMAs are getting themselves stacked bullish once again with OBV above the 10 EMA, which is above the 20, which is above the 100. There is not a lot of detail to the monthly chart but it is clear that no component of my system flipped bearish on this time frame while other top coins did. That puts ADA as a leader. I am not going to give you a powerpoint of death, but ADA is bullish on the daily, 3d and monthly according to my system. It just needs to get the weekly sorted out and I believe that has a high chance of happening. The chart on Ada Dominance is extraordinarily bullish. It may go x3 in 2022 in a bull market which suggest massive gains for ADAUSD. The rising wedge does appear to converge on the 1.618 level and generally that predicts a breakdown to the bottom of the wedge. In blow off tops you can see price action pop out the top of a rising wedge before reversing in dramatic fashion. This will be a chart to watch. Here is my crazy bull market scenario. I have seen enough movements assets to reach the 2 line that I think this has a higher chance of occurring than most people would initially accept. Have a look at TSLA. It consolidated for 6 years and then has gone up to the 3 line and might take out the 4 line on the next upleg. Absolutely crazy target. If you said that TSLA could be at 715 when it was at 50 (accounting for the split) and you thought 1400 was a target people would have called you mad. But a few years later here we are. And ADA has a lower market cap and a faster market cycle. Here is Bitcoin with a fib log channel from 2015 when it was under $200. That 1.618 line has been very predictive of stalls and tops. The 1 line was very powerful as support. I think we will see BTCUSD approach the 2 line, very easily. All that suggest to me that my ADA target is crazy, but doable. My plan? Look for pull backs to buy on the 12h or daily on heiken ashi candles and use those to add to my position and set stop losses. If price is above the clouds and above the 50 period and we go from red to green and get some shadow less candles it is time to look for an impulse. I hope to let my winners run and so I will be doing more of trailing my stops up than taking profits unless we are at a serious level on the fib log channel.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by This_Guhy
12
Amazon (also) Appears to be in Wycoffian DistributionThe main chart has the Wycoffian distribution spelled out and if you want to check it against the criterion you can follow the link below, hit ctrl-f and search for "Distribution: Wyckoff Events" and you will be right there. Not everything is annotated, the chart would be way too cluttered. school.stockcharts.com www.ltg-trading.com As it stands I am still waiting for my entry to buy some OTM puts( I do have some SPXU and SQQQ calls that are going well but I don't feel the stress is worth it). Very often when the price breaks through the ice there is a low volume rally to the ice, or at the lower end of the ice range and that gives you the best chance for an entry into an impulsive move. In other words almost any continuation pattern around the ice should have a high probability of breaking down bearishly and any bearish patterns (like rising wedges) are definitely bearish. On the weekly chart we clearly see that the price action has been rangebound almost straight sideways but the On Balance Volume itself and the EMAS have been trending downward with the 20EMA bearishly over the 10. What remains to be seen is if the 100 OBV EMA will hold the OBV or the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs. If the obv EMAs stack fully bearishly then the price will look like a cat swiped it off the table. We can also see that the MACD has a lot of bearish divergence as well as the MACD histogram. The MTF VSTOP reinforces the trend as being bearish by providing resistance that is automatically and dynamically drawn, so I can't mess it up. The monthly chart below confirms that the ice isn't some random price action I observed, it was the long term VSTOP support. Back testing the chart shows that when the MTF VSTOP gets broken on the monthly we can expect some wicking below the 20 period SMA. Likewise, when the MACD crosses the signal line bearishly or goes red the 20 period SMA is a good place to accumulate. Even in late 2014 when we closed a monthly candle below the 20 we were fine. I have not shown the OBV in the chart below because it does not have any serious signals except the OBV has been trading around the 10 EMA. Some Macro stuff The only way we go much below the 20 period SMA is if we have a the NASDAQ bubble completely pop or a financial crisis like 2008. That scenario is certainly on the table given how horrific the news cycle appears to be and if international trade slows and the news picks up about supply chain problems Amazon is going to be hit particularly hard. Then we start looking for a long term value buy at the monthly bollinger band which is conveniently right around the ascending triangle. It is also rather convenient that the price is distributing right above the target of the ascending triangle. Pure support and resistance traders would be looking for the top of the triangle to be tested as support anyway. Debt is also getting expensive and so there is less easy money for firms and with inflation picking up there should be less items consumed at a higher price, which means less orders from Amazon Please have a look at my Wycoff chart on the NASDAQ Futures if the subject interest you.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by This_Guhy
3
Bitcoin's recent volatility has not changed a bearish biasSo far Bitcoin has had a good couple of days and I see lots of people in real life as well online starting to get bullish and looking at putting on some big bets and so far I don't see the justification for that enthusiasm. I will link some ideas that make the macro bearish case to keep this post from ballooning even more. Analysis The bollinger bands can help determine trend merely by how they are angled... up, sideways or downward. You can also see "expansive" moves when the bollinger bands widen and you can see if it has been a really long time since the bottom of the bollinger band has been tested or if the top of the bollinger band has not been tested in a long time. Also, the daily VSTOP very close to the top of the daily BB. I suspect of volatility traders will be expecting the move to end here. The first thing that BTCUSD will have to do before I start to change my bearish bias is start to move the daily BB sideways and then start to get it to move upward. That process can take months so I don't feel I am missing out of I don't rush to put a trade on in the next couple of days. Again, there is is also a very real chance that price action gets ripped to shreds at the top of the daily BB and VSTOP. To be fair, the markets could potentially display a lot of upside potential. Here is the 3 day chart with both the standard and crypto ichi-moku cloud settings. The T-K displayed are for the crypto cloud and the high points are summarized on the chart. There are a lot of powerful moves in both directions when we are in the previous two black boxes but the ultimately we saw a bearish breakdown. It is just a very low probability scenario in my opinion. s3.tradingview.com My Trade Set Up thought Process As it stands on the 12 hour (and below) the RSI is already divergence to price action with hidden bearish divergence. Taking a short at or about the top of the daily BB would be a very technical move as the BB charts potential support and resistance and when it appears resistance or support is being met it can be evaluated with indicators. To try and limit any losses I am going to be waiting for a red shadowless Heikin Ashi candle on the 12 hour on BTC or other crypto to put my short order on. Target setting will be based on the idea BTC is in a head and shoulders. That means I am prepared to short this right shoulder to past the neckline but will be on guard for a return move to the neckline and then another rejection. If I don't get the red candle I want I wait. I can literally just evaluate the charts ever 12 hours for a couple of minutes while I check the list of coins I want to put my shorts on unless I am looking to write an idea. The linked ideas show how I set the macro trend and why I am using a low time frame (daily BB and 12h candles) to set my entry. If you review the watchlist from the main chart I am still on #1 of the watchlist. Which means I personally have a long way to go before I personally start to take longs or move out of stable coins. Rather than buying dips and selling into strength I am looking to short the rip. Linked Ideas summary The first three ideas are my system for confirming market bias using the Volatility Stop on multiple time frames in conjunction with some other simple and fundamental technical analysis. The VSTOP is based of a measure of volatility, the Average True Range. If you read all three you will see plenty of re-iterations of the same concept but you should understand why by bias is so bearish. The last idea is where I think we will see a major stall in downtrend and potential reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
18
Price Action Similarities between the NASDAQ and BitcoinThere is a lot on the main chart but lets go through it directly: Both had a parabolic run up and Over 80% corrections Both Created a W pattern with a higher low around the 0.236 retracement level from the height to initial low BTC intermediate high stalled at the 0.786 while NDX intermediate high was around the lower 0.500 (not shown on chart). Consequentially NDX did not show the same bullishness and perhaps that is why the subsequent uptrend was not as impulsive Both Stalled briefly at the previous high (the 1 level) BTC had a very neat consolidation at the 1.271 and 1.414 levels level while NDX showed a lot of chop BTC entered a clear distribution at the 1.618 Level Forecasting The primary supposition based on this chart is that NDX will enter a technical distribution pattern as BTC did and this process can take a long time. Below is a scenario that I could see replay. Previous resistance gets turned into support and then sets up the trendline of the bull trap. You can see this al over the place when parabolic moves end and there is a fair chance we will see it again. The time measurement on the chart shows from the time the price broke free of resistance until the bull trap was in. We may run into a lot of the same narratives with NDX as we did with BTC. People expecting a blw off top like the 00 bubble pop. Or "Printer go brrrrrr" type analysis. Side Rant It is sadly impressive how people can develop for themselves a system to determine their bias in trading whether to go long or short on a time frame but still get completely torn up and don't get the message. Below is a very important chart for NDX and if you follow me even somewhat closely the system should be recognizable. There is the VSTOP, the VSTOP X3 timeframe, the 20W and the MACD. When the VSTOP, MTF VSTOP and 20M are all below price action it is a clear sign that the macro trend is bullish. You should be taking longs and taking profits. To be honest I took some calls on SQQQ that paid well and some that did not during the last couple of months and it really wasn't worth the stress so I stopped. To continue that point I have seen lots of crypto traders on Youtube or Trading view that had systems that the have appeared to abandon. They were going to be bearish if BTC slipped the 21 EMA or the 20w SMA.... And now they are bullish again somehow despite price action still being below the moving average. Traders that clearly saw the 2018 descending triangle cannot see the head and shoulders. People that used MA cross overs to determine bias have abandoned that, people that use the cloud have abandoned that because they are stuck on a bullish bias even after their systems tell them not to. Same with cloud traders. The cloud for bitcoin is flipped bearish on the daily or three daily and these traders are looking to go long on the 4h chart. Madness. Back to the analysis Since NDX is at a major target level this could be where a trader or investor decides to rotate some of their portfolio out of growth stocks. Into what I recommend anything as I am not a financial advisor. In this system you would not contemplate going short without a clear distribution pattern on the weekly timeframe that could take months or until the VSTOP flipped and then you would short into strength. Once the MACD crosses and price is below all the indicators it is a full multi-year bear market. If (and that is still a big if) we do flip the monthly to a bearish bias the target for the next major consolidation is the 200 month EMA/SMA. Conclusion It is a "big if" if I am correct in several ways. It may take a month or so for this to get shorted out and lots of people may get surprised by an upward trust after distribution. I can see a lot of people getting torn up because they take shorts too soon, or get timed out of their option calls. Relief rallies can blow a bunch of shorter out of the water.
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
7
Ethereum: Confirming a bear market with high probabilityIntroduction Those familiar with my system won't find anything new here, just a simple reiteration of the same system I have used to call bear markets or local highs several times with a lot of sucess. This system helps us confirm a all time high and a top after a massive uptrend and it has many confirming components with each one by themselves should make a case for a change of bias, but all together make a very strong case for long term bullish or bearishness. The linked charts will show where and how I was using this system to call for caution on BTC on the 3d chart at 50k to confirming the bear market on the 1 week and 1 month timeframes. Analysis Top Chart the 20 Week SMA is the baseline of the bollinger band and used in many moving average systems. ETH has slipped the 20 ween SMA, closed a whole candle body below, and is now testing it as resistance. The 2018 top had a much more violent slip below the 20 week and then price action tested the 20 week for around a month before continuing the downtrend. Currently ETH seems to have approached the cliff and slipped off, grabbing the 20W SMA like it were tuffs of grass. Prediction: That hold will slip in due time with new local lows. Volatility Stop. A great indicator to help you determine the trend and place stops. It can also help you visualize dynamic support and resistance. This has been poised bearishly since mid-may and that was a major warning sign for those familiar with the system. Volatility Stop Multiple Time Frame . I have set this to 3x, so this basically shows the 3 week volatility stop . Combined with default Vstop it helps confirm super-bearish or bullish trends. When the VSTOP is broken the red arrow appears and we wait for confirmation and we have been on that condition for weeks now Lower Charts The On Balance volume is a great indicator for determining what is going on with the total volume situation and helps measure the tension between buyers and sellers. It is a bit harder to use divergences with crypto as the process keeps adding new supply but crosses can be very important, especially if you have an exchange where you can somewhat trust volume data. As you can see the OBV has slipped the 10 EMA and is now leaning heavily upon the 20. Very shortly I expect the prediction on the chart and it proceeds in an exceedingly bearish manner. A bearish MACD cross on the weekly timeframe after an all time high by itself is a major warning sign of either major consolidation incoming or a trend reversal. When that is combined with a bearish VSTOP or price action below the 20W SMA it gets even more bearish. Watchlist In order to fully confirm a bear market according to this system we are missing two related conditions OBV below the 20 EMA The 10 and 20 OBV EMAs cross bearish In order to change the bias to bullish we would need to see OBV above the 10 EMA Bullish MACD cross VStop to flip bullish MTF VSTOP to flip Bullish with confirmation Whole Candle Bodies above the 20 W SMA, preferably with a retest Going up a time frame to the 2 week chart we can see that the VSTOP has already flipped bearish, the MACD appears to be approaching a cross, and the OBV is about to slip the 10 EMA. In my mind with my familiarity with this system this would be a good place to take profit or prepare for reversal (bear market) Closing Thoughts I am short an alt coin that looks particularly bad to me right now and that is my only crypto position open right now. I am not a financial advisor or a CMT but I am a guy that spend a lot of time trying to make my own system to remove my bias in determining trend to help me trend trade. And I am bearish.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9
Tezos Facing Key Rejection in Bearish Chart FormationTezos is appearing to have a fundamental breakdown of the key trendline of this uptrend. What was support for over 900 days now appears to be acting as resistance and that is a very key rejection for Tezos to be facing. Simple targeting on the overall structure is shows with the bold black and red fib retracement and the the fib retracement of the head and shoulders is shown on the orange and black retracement. Tezos has been pretty wicky on almost all the exchanges it is traded on and that can make target setting on chart formations rather difficult but I think we have a fair approximation with the orange targeting. Full performance on these target might take a while, like 4-6 months but very likely there will be a standout red candle that makes up the bulk of the move. I do a lot of charting on BTC but that is to help my crypto trading on alts. As it stands right now I am holding stable coins & fiat taking this short. Here us the rundown of why I continue to be bearish, but this time centered on Tezos, using the weekly chart below with the chart above we see Under the 20 week SMA Under both weekly VSTOP and 3x VSTOP Weekly MACD is crossed bearish Weekly OBV is below the 20w SMA Mega bearish reliable chart formation Flipped long term trendline from support to resistance I don't know how your system works, or why you may be bearish or bullish but to me this is a bearish set of circumstances. charts I'm still working on in the background Major stall at what would become the the 0.618. This wedge is the formation that got me looking at this trade. The MACD EMAs are always very interesting to me. I circled where they have crossed on the the main chart (which would be the MACD crossing zero) and where the MACD crosses the signal. Look for interactions way more than I should. I'll be placing a stop for guaranteed profit shortly.
COINBASE:XTZUSDShort
by This_Guhy
5
Quickpost:Dash Looks Like a shortThe main chart says a lot so I am going to go into the 12 hour because that shows a lot. Quite simply price action is still very bearish with both the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP situated bearishly and the 20 period SMA acting as resistance. This is the time frame I have my stops set on and my entry was at $207, My take profit is of course a bit shy of full performance. I am almost but not quite ready to move my stop loss to guarantee a profit. These are very risky times and only the nimble should be trading. This is not the time to learn new skills. If you try and push your limits here with your full account most of y'all will get wrecked, like I got wrecked 3.5-4 years ago. One of the reasons this is a quickpost and I don't need a lot more TA is all the TA I have done recently that points to the begining of a bear market, and I trust my divergences and stop strategy. If I take an L on this it will be a very small one. Here is a quick confirmation on ethbtc, which loosk to be setting up a classic bear trap. Given ETH and BTC .9ish correlation and ETH higher beta it seems we are due for the next leg down marketwide.
KRAKEN:DASHUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Bitcoin one week away from fully confirming full blown bear markWe will be looking at a confluence of three indicators and their close next week for me to formally call the beginning of a bull market that could last over a year. 20 Week SMA. Some people are watching the 21 week EMA and there is little distinction between the two, except the 20W is more important because it is the basis of the weekly bollinger band. If BTC slips the 20w then the bears have a very solid place to look at shorting, and bulls have a place to take profits, and that is the top of the weekly bollinger band or the 20w, depending on what your charting is showing you. DYOR on the last bear market if you wish. Volatility Stop. A great indicator to help you determine the trend and place stops. It can also help you visualize dynamic support and resistance. It is based off of the Average True range, another fantastic indicator that helps spot when an asset is in accumulation. That may be important in a year or so Volatility Stop Multiple Time Frame. I have set this to 3x, so this basically shows the 3 week volatility stop. Combined with default Vstop it helps confirm super-bearish or bullish trends. When the VSTOP is broken the red arrow appears and we wait for confirmation. That is where we are now after the weekly close. If we close with the price action below the MFT of 47,948.22, the MTF flips bearish and the magenta line begins. After the two impulses with the arrows price action closes below the 20 week SMA and has double flipped the MTF VSTOP and the VStop. The red X shows I don't consider the price action as fitting the pattern because in one weekly candle the price ranged over 82% and we clearly have not seen that scenario occur since then. Watchlist The 20 week value as I write this is $49k and the MTF VSTOP is $47.9k. If price closes between that narrow range (unlikely) then there would have been a while lot of volatiliy in the market. If it ends above the 20w SMA some how then we need to tunnel down and reassess. The most likely scenario right now? Price action closes below the 20w and the MFT VSTOP and the bear market is confirmed by some very powerful indicators. As always, please see the linked ideas for some larger context. My personal plan is to look to short what I want to short up until BTC is in the blue area, which seems very similar to me as the last run up to previous bull market ATH to bear market. I will want to see some resistance and support to play as well as the NVT in the green on the daily. That will be a great chance to make or lose some money. I don't have any buy orders on the books just yet. For an investment long if this does flip fully bearish you would be looking for BTC to be down at least 70-80% from ATH and with the NVT in the green on the weekly and absent any bearish structure, like a massive descending triangle like we saw in 2018.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
4
Tezos has a potential cup and handle brewingThis is a higher risk set up than what I normally but what is in the chart is in the chart. This would require not only for this chart pattern to perform but would also require BTC and ETH to behave over the next couple of days to week week as to not confound what is going on here. The main chart has hidden bullish divergence on the 12 hour and the chart below has classic bullish divergence on the four hour. This suggest to me that Tezos should be moving to the neckline of the cup and handle when the falling wedge performs to the upside and from there we can see if there is enough momentum for price to break the neckline and potentially turn the previous resistance into support and have a nice impulse to the upside. The chart below shows that the price action has found support on the 3x VSTOP and also the 20 day SMA so the chart formation has some technical support. A quick review of the 20 day SMA and VSTOP shows that when the price action breaks them as support that the decline is steep, once again meaning this to be a high risk trade and set up if traded without a good stop strategy . Thankfully the wedge gives us a chance for a couple of technical entries. I made mine a few hours ago betting on the wicking action at wedge support is a low. Break out traders could look for trades on the wedge or cup neckline or should price action retest the broadening ascending wedge support later on after a pull back. Risk reward to retest ATH is pretty decent and with the bullish structure I am in the trade. Thanks to the VSTOP and falling wedge I should see this perform sooner as opposed to later. s3.tradingview.com
KRAKEN:XTZUSDLong
by This_Guhy
1
NDX/SPY and NDX/DJI looks like the NASDAQ is popping a bubbleIntroduction For my adult life the advice has been to buy just by ETFs. And for the last decade or so the advise has also to been buy the NASDAQ ETF because it over-performs the other indices. It seems that advice is on the precipice of ending due to some long term indicators on the verge of flipping their switches. The MFV VSTOP is set to 3x and right now price action has gone below the stop. IF we confirm below the arrow stays in place and right next to it we get that black dot which means the move is confirmed. Not shown to keep the main chart clean is the VSTOP on the current time frame which has already flipped bearish. Price action is also leaning heavily on the 20 month SMA which, due to its use in a variety of other indicators is rather important. The Chart also declares that we have a lot of divergence on some popular indicators indicators I could almost exactly use the same write up for NDX/DJI but this chart has the RSI with a double top instead of clear bearish divergence. A look at NDX, SPY and DJI to try and guestimate what this dump could look like is very bearish indeed. The dotcom bubble burst was a historical economic event and it seems its ghost has come to haunt us. SPY and DJI will be less affected by this downtrend but will still take significant beatings over the next coupe of years. The fact that they don't go down as much means they are less likely to get a playable/dupe-able bull trap Here is a replay of the dotcom pop on NDX with my general thoughts. It is on the three day with the daily BB in orange and the weekly in blue. There will be a lot of technical bounces on the way down and a put/short strategy seems very advisable. My Conclusions I am not going to go on at length about the dollar or inflation in consumer staples or the wallstreetbets effect. It looks pretty bad out there when you compare the most bullish US index to its brothers and that is generally bearish for the broader market. I am not a financial advisor and I don't have a CMT... purely self taught. But I am going to look to short in one way or another these bearish continuation patterns and I might even take some opportunistic logs when the price action first hits the weekly bollinger band. There is going to be a lot of pain over the next couple of years but there is nothing moral about being bad with money, or losing money. Here is TSLA based off of my linked idea. Plenty of chances to swing trade in this dumpster fire of an equity if I can get some indicators to back up the TA. The main chart suggest we will get a multi-month bull trap. The chart where I replayed the NDX bubble burst also suggest a multi-month bull trap. Even though the macro situation is bearish you still have to be nibble enough to deal with the rallies however you decide. My other linked idea is how I potentially see BTC affected by the everything bubble
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
12
Bitcoin: Big Alarm Bells about to be rung (VSTOP, NTV and BB)There is a lot in the chart but we can go bullet by bullet. I am using the three day intra-week setting but will look at other time frames as we dig in. VSTOP - A way of setting stops using the Average True Range, a measure of volatility to help chart trends. I have decided to only show the VSTOP acting as resistance to simply the chart. VVSTOP MTF - A multiple time frame VSTOP set to three times the default setting. In conjunction with the VSTOP it can show dynamic support and resistance, For visibility I have tweaked the charts to have the flag indicating the bullish MTF was breached show high on the chart. A black dot within a bulb occurs when the MTVSTOP is breached and then we close a handle below to confirm the break. Investigation: In 2017 there was a massive run up on BTC and at a high we had the VSTOP present bearishly and in short order the 20 period SMA was breached and the MTF VSTOP was breached and confirmed in short order and a massive bear market ensued. We see we are very close to having all three conditions met currently. We have 16 hours to close the candle and if we have flipped the VSTOP it will be another 3 days to get a black dot in the bulb and we start printing bearish MTF. 1 Week Chart This chart is a bit wonky. The log Growth curves are used to contain the vast majority of price action and the bolded lines show a lot of significance over the years. In part, if the are breached we can expect to transverse from one to the other rather quickly and either consolidate or proceed to the baseline of the upper limit. I altered the MACD to only show the histogram because to show the crosses on the log chart is basically impossible, so we can just focus on the histogram. The blue boxes show where the MACD crossed the signal and therefor the histogram flipped from green and positive and red and negative. But that is not the only condition for a blue box. The NVT had to transition from Red into Yellow signaling lower network value/transactions. Historically those conditions being met are devastating for BTC price. Now this chart is BLX and so it is a day behind. Here is our current chart. The MACD is clearly red and the bearish cross of the MACD and signal is upon us. We have not closed, but there is a breach of the log growth channel of interest. Another look at the weekly chart with the bollinger band in blue and the monthly bollinger band in green. This is simple, if we slip into the monthly bollinger band with a weekly MACD cross we are in a bear market. You can take your shorts at either the baseline of the weekly chart or at the top of the monthly Bollinger band. Here is a similar circumstance in 2013 and 2014. We have the MACD cross and slip into the monthly BB and we have a bear market. Also, the uptrend has been marked by falling volume and RSI going into this MACD cross In summation 3 day VSTOP bearish About to convert the 3d MTF VSTOP to bearish Broke the 3d 20SMA Weekly NVT and MACD combo look like hell Weekly and Monthly Bollinger and MACD combo bands look like hell Volume and is declining with rising price very suggested of the end of an uptrend on the weekly timeframe. Me Personally I am tethering up what I can except what I need to maintain some shorts. I had my some very long calls reach target and was willing to deal with the normal pull backs in crypto but at this point I cannot risk the upcoming volatility if I don't think we can return to these levels in a couple months or maybe even a year. If I am wrong I miss some gains till I see more strength in the charts. Oh well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
2
Divergence between VStop and Stan Weinstein’s 30MA* I call Stan Weinstein’s 30MA my most definitive MA line because this is the level where breakouts take place as Stage 1 transients to Stage 2. * As long as price point remains above the 30MA, the counter will stay in an uptrend and according to Stan Weinstein, we should continue to hold position provided it is is an uptrend. However, if the price point dips below the 30MA, it’s time to exit especially if you’re still holding any position. * Based on my observations, VStop (Volatility Stop), on the other hand, seems to adhere to the 30MA: lower limits denoted by green+ surface whenever the price point stays above the 30MA while upper limits denoted by yellow+ surface when the price point dips below the 30MA. So it appears that VStop follows Stan Weinstein’s 30MA line. * Well not so. Through my analysis/observations, divergence between the VStop and the 30MA does appear some times and I find them to be significant for Entry Signals. Taking DOMO as an example, yellow+ began surfacing on 6 Jan which is a divergence from the 30MA. Technically, VStop should be surfacing the green+ as price point is above the 30MA. The VStop green+ only converges on 14 Jan and this is a good Entry Signal to go long. So far, I have verified this finding with other indicators like RSP and MACD amongst others and it appears that my prognosis is correct which is why I’m sharing this with you. * Word of caution: this is my first sharing as a rookie trader. I always do due diligence whenever someone mentions a noteworthy counter. Just so you know, I’m long on DOMO like yesterday (14 Jan) at $68 which I reckon is a good price point for entry. Although my stop loss is at 30MA, baring any unforeseen situations which may result in earlier exit, I plan to ride this trend as do all trend followers.
NASDAQ:DOMOLong
by Jamxliu
2
Battleplaning: Bitcoin just printed a massive buy signalThe Volatility stop is a very simple way to track areas of support and resistance and when combined with the Multiple Time frame VSTOP we get some indicators taht do some autocharting for us. Throw on some simple moving averages to help with timing trades with retests and I have hopefully developed a system that will help me time my entries on leveraged trades for this next uptrend/bull market. The pluses on the chart are the normal timeframe VSTOP and they show our basic support and resistance. I have made the green bullish VSTOP just a big bigger than the red bearish VSTOP to highlight support The MTF is shown in blue or pink lines. When it gets hit by price and the candle closes above it it fades the line. It isn't until a candle is completely above the MTF VSTOP that a bearish VSTOP will flip to bullish. These first touches are shown with the red triangles. The flip in bias is shown the black circle within the VSTOP. The key point of this post is the weekly VSTOP just turned bullish. The monthly VSTOP flipped in the beginning of the month on the BLX ticker but as we were under the weekly VSTOP breaishly it would be more likely that you would get stopped out of a position. With this alignment BTC is now bullish on the 1D,1W, and 1M timeframe. This makes playing with margin a lot more tenable. It is also comforting to see a potential rising channel coming out of this ascending triangle, which was a very strong right shoulder on a inverse head and shoulders... one bullish formation after another. My linked post is about the a mutli time frame analysis on the VSTOP and BTCUSD and I waited until very recently to put my position on, itching for things to get lined up. What we are also looking for over the next couple of months is for price action to retest a significant horizontal level. Last time it was a long wick candle that set up long term consolidation and a resistance that we would operate under for over a year. That is $490 set by the black ray and green and red arrows. The level that I suggest we need to retest in a few months, and to steady investors hands, is of course detailed in orange at $13.8K. That is shown on the main chart. I have entered a position for the breakout of the orange horizontal level at the base of this rising channel. The plan is for me to trail stops up on a lower timeframes. with my gains I'll use the USD to buy the dips around the 20w and trail buystop down on lower timeframes to get taken in with my leveraged XBTUSD trades. I'll look to close any positions against the MFT VSTOP when things flip. My bias will change from bullish to bearish when the the 20w and the MTF VSTOP are both above price action. If you see me posting about sorting before then slap me. I will probably go long into an altcoins opposed to shorting BTC.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
1
Silver Versus the NASDAQ II: Moving Averages and Volatility StopMy use of VSTOP and the Multiple Time frame VSTOP has become part of my "autocharting" procedures to identify a price action that triggers a VSTOP to flip and then price action will trigger the VSTOP to flip and then price action to impulse to the MTF VSTOP. We see the black circle and arrow a time where the VSTOP flipped to bullish and shorly thereafter the price action impulses to the MTF VSTOP The last time that happened was Feb 2001 and silver went up 9.5x against the NASDAQ after that. This system I am tinkering with is still in its nascent stages and so I don't have a lot of back testing to look at to show results. Buyer (of this free post) beware. A Key point: First touch of the MTF either leads to a long term consolidation or rejection. The "touch" may not even connect so typically a take profit a few percent below appears to be prudent. This does not neccesarily apply to this because silver was still in accumulation. If this uptrend is simular to the last we should see most, if not all, of the following price actions occur: mostly green months as the price action soldiers through to the top of the EMA ribbon a burst through the EMA ribbon to the MTF VSTOP, a retest the EMA ribbon as support, price action goes on an absolute tear. On this tear there should be a retest of the MTF VSTOP as support and the base of the EMA ribbon. That would be the biggest sign to long and to go big. That is shown at the purple arrow. The EMA ribbon is going to be retested multiple times but the biggest retest will be when it has completed its bullish stack, with all short term EMAs above the longer term EMAs. Going big there will be emotionally difficult. We see that it happened at the bottom of the Great Recession. Also, the VSTOP is set to calculate at the close. If you see a mega green candle on the monthly chart that is so big that the VSTOP is pregnant, or inside the candle, it is generally time to go down to a lower timeframe and use the stop on that timeframe, which should be higher, to get more gains. That is a sign that the top is about to blow off. Finally we can see through the black parallel channel that price action between this pair can still channel or create tradable chart patterns over a decade. The signal there, in hindsight, is very clear VSTOP bearish MTF VSTOP bearish EMA ribbon confirmed as resistance Channel Support flipped to resistance Over the next 10-15 years I would be delighted to see a channel to help me trade silver against the NASDAQ. Please see the linked idea as to price targets on the Silver NASDAQ pair.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by This_Guhy
4
TD Sequential and VSTOP: The next 4 days are crucialThe Left Chart I have been using iterations of the chart on the left for a while now. Bitcoin is testing previous support as resistance and so this is a key decision point. Failure to break resistance right here signals very real macro-weakness. It would have been the third lower high since 2017 and at the least would set up more continuation sideways. Even more bearishly would be the low of late 2018 and early 2010 being taken out and we would be legging it down. The monthly level to beat is determined by the VSTOP, being set to close, at 11,321. Closing above that to end the month flips the VSTOP similar to what happened in 2016. A look at early 2016 shows we can also chop sideways for another for months or so against this VSTOP. The idea of chopping sideways for a couple of months might be enticing for many, as it gives you a place to accumulate for the next leg up. Normally I would agree, but as I said, we are on our third consecutive lower low at double resistance. I will continue to personally wait for the VSTOP to flip bullish because I am looking for a long term trend here and the chance of reversal is still to high for me. The Right Chart There is a lot of potential bullishness on this timeframe and I know why many are licking their chops. Price action has just cleared the TDST (Tom Demark Setup Trend) and a close above that is our clear buy signal on the weekly timeframe. I have boxed out the area between the TDST and the 1m VSTOP The Daily Chart The box shows how price action is in No Man's Land between the bullishness on the weekly chart and the resistance on the monthly chart. Forbebodingly, there is a "Perfected 9" which is clearly higher than the highs of bars 6 and 7. This means we are at a very technical place for reversal. Summation: Monthly : still bearish until a close above the VSTOP and double resistance. Patience if you want to go long or tunneling down timeframes if you want to go short. Weekly : BUYBUYBUY so long as you ignore the other timeframes Daily : Trend is at resistance and could break out. Perfected 9 on the TD. Decent place to simulate straddle with opposing positions if you think TD could go to 13 or close above the monthly resistance but want to keep yourself safe. Not financial advice though. I am still familiarizing myself with the TD and VSTOP combination with experimentation. I remain neutral on BTCUSD for now with no trades on. Come August 1st that may change with a close above 11,321.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by This_Guhy
SPXUSD Volatility Stops and 9Season (4h, 12h, 1d)Partly working on a new indicator set so these ideas are part me working out my thoughts. see more at the bottom for those thoughts. The two volatility based stops, the VSTOP and the Chandelier, are both based off the average true range. Link to the 9Season idea Key points for all timeframes Support fails Volatility stops flip bearish (mostly) Bearish 9 season rainbow. 4h Price action for the ending of both uptrend shows price action finally breaking the black trendline then consolidation at the red arrow before the next leg down with both the Chandelier and VSTOP creating a ceiling. The 9 Season for the first bearish move showed yellow on multiple timeframes (which is clear resistance) and the lowest timeframe flickered lime green which is crazy overbought and generally unsustainable This current uptrend has flicked straight to bearish for 4 timeframes and at the highest timeframe has gone from yellow to lime green to weak bull. I expect it to go to bearish shortly as well. 12h The volatility stop for both movements still show the price action slipped the trendline and the volatility stops created a ceiling. The last move down had yellow at the higgher timeframes which was proved to be very bearish. The higher time frames for this move down are still green for a bullish move but the lower timeframes are yelling exhaustion. With the 4h timeframes looking so bearish I expect the 9Season to look bearish on all timeframes shortly. 1d for the last leg down the 9Season lagged a clear entry until the lowest timeframe went yellow to red and that was no better than shorting the trendline break. Also currently there is no daily signal on the 9Season. But the Volatility based stops were in pretty good agreement. Currently the different volatility stops are not in agreement. The VStop said we should have gone short either the last trading day or the day before, using the VSTOP beneath the trendline as a sell stop (very provisional notion here) while the Chandelier has us stopped out. The chandelier would have had you in the uptrend trade from 2640 to 3000 which is pretty good. The Vstop would have had you on this uptrend from 2450 to about 2773 then if you reentered from 2773 to 3170. Not bad either but re-entering is psychologically difficult. In conclusion 4h - Bearish and short 12h Bearish and short 1d Mixed, either close long and wait for clearer signal or use V-Stop Not financial advise as I am not a certified market technician, and this is a new system I am trying to work on. Have the same problems as many, not letting my winners run and not cutting my loses soon enough so my account could have gone up a whole lot more than it did the last 4 months. One thing I am looking at is changing the VSTOP and Chaelier setting to 2.1 or 2.2 to avoid some of those narrow wickouts . Prioritizing letting my winners run by giving them just a bit more space than getting a super quick entry. Other things I am looking at is doing some of my standard TA (MACD, OBV divergence, Bollinger band, etc) at one time frame, and then cutting the time fame in half to look for my entry. So if I am looking at a weekly chart for a move that could last months I would be looking at entry on the 3d chart. If I am looking at the daily chart for a move that should last a week or two? Maybe a month? Enter on the 12h (crypto, futures) or 4h (normie securities). Still very provisional.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy