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VVIX

X Marks the SpotMister X marked the spot. He did it again in January of 2023. And apparently, he called it again. Unfortunately for the markets, mister X has a double identity. Mr. ❎ = Mr. ➡️ (mister x is my homie mister right) Classic technical analysis proves them right. 1. Volatility VIX is compressing, forming a triple bottom. (amongst other taboo signals) 2. Volume Stock market growth commonly shows volume divergence. ES1! Volume helps us see a clearer picture on SPX. After each instance, pain followed. Will this time be different? I may follow up to this idea with further information. I may not. Either way, be careful on who you trust (and when). One thing may be for certain. The time will come when X will miss the spot. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. For more information on volatility, you may take a look at the idea I posted a while ago.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by akikostas
SPX | Don't fall for the trap...SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train. Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar! But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves. Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain. Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX. And VIX is as bullish as it gets. But not all is VIX. It is important to analyze the volatility of volatility. We are really entering inception levels here. Volatility is too low and too stable . It is as if it is pressured to make all-time-lows. With such a low VVIX reading, we can conclude that VIX is having no second thought on dropping even further. Curiously, the VVIX/VIX ratio is a neat SPX tracker. I have posted about it ages ago. So what can we conclude about volatility? Historically, similar volatility traps have lead to severe crashes in the stock market. Will this time be any different? So what is in for the future? Perhaps an all-time high for SPX will come first. It is not that far... Then, perhaps some SPX divergence against VVIX/VIX. SPX to move higher with VVIX/VIX moving lower. And then darkness. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
V
by akikostas
11
The Bear Steepener Analysis US10Y/US01YLooking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook: Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already shifted towards a risk-off sentiment. Similar pattern consolidations/breakouts occurred during most recent systemic risk offs, below is the one we've had during Covid: Dot Com s3.tradingview.com 2008 With the only exception, a major fakeout being the 1995-1998 period. Now, when we consider the VVIX/VIX ratio, it offers a noteworthy perspective on the potential alignment of this bear steepener breakout with the possibility of breaching the bottom support. Barring any unforeseen developments that could disrupt this pattern, it appears that we are receiving indications or early warnings of an impending risk-off event. Additionally, when we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average (MA), it confirms our decision to shift towards the long side just over a week ago. Moreover, there's a chance that this move could trigger a final squeeze. How long might this squeeze persist? My assessment suggests that it still has some room to run, and I would only recommend exercising caution once we start approaching the 60's in this particular indicator.
TVC:US10Y
by EdwinPus
SPX | Early AccessI have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful to smoothen the "fog" the standard chart creates. In the end I will add the link to the inventor. I took great care on drawing these trendlines. I tried to get into the mind of the investor back then, and drew the lines that best made sense, and could provide some actual meaning. On the chart, red arrows are drawn. These are the times when the VVIX/VIX chart violates decisively it's trendline. On the same dates, I created arrows on the SPX chart to get an idea of just how early this method warns us. While this method may not be useful for traders (I am not a trader, I am just passionate analyzing charts), I find it incredibly interesting on how these two correlate, and make actual sense. I find VIX by itself completely useless. Don't get triggered by what I said. How on earth is VIX = 20 a good buy-in strategy? It is as about as useful as RSI getting below 80. Again don't get triggered by it and flame comments down below. Numbers and money don't mean nothing. It is perspective and values that make sense. Now onto some charts: In 2008 we were notified from VVIX/VIX all the way back in February of 2007, and got a confirmation on April of 2007. This is not a typo, 1 year before the GFC. Curiously, this happened when FED's tightening schedule was near it's end. Also interesting is the April-September period of 2008, when the VVIX/VIX chart showed signs of hope when it broke above it's trendline. And compared to now: We can conclude similarly for the 2010-2015 period. And the 2016-2020 period. And the 2020-2023 period of course. Are we approaching this hopeful period before the crisis? A comparison between 2008 and 2023, in the period of deadly hope. Link to the inventor of the WLSMA indicator: Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity. Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment. Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices. Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up. An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by EpicEconomics
VVIX Lowest ADX Reading in History - WARNINGThe weekly ADX indicator is sitting at 8 (NO TREND) at the same time VVIX reached it's lowest value since March 2017. EXTREME COMPLACENCY can be presumed. A market without fear is DANGEROUS. Either markets continue higher in the face of continuing rate hikes & QT or markets SELLOFF & VIX spikes catching everyone offsides. I go with the latter. Expecting VVIX ADX to SURGE WITH $VIX. Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. GL
VLong
by EpicEconomics
Financial (in)stability mechanismsI have posted many times regarding volatility, especially the VVIX&VIX relationship. There are times when mechanisms need to activate to stabilize the economy, the psychology, the society. Recessions, wars, pandemics are periods that may justify such actions. It is wise for an investor to understand pressures and their direction. The motto "Don't fight the FED" and "Don't go against the trend" should be applied everywhere. A very rapid growth like in 2016 needed suppression, or else equities would have gone parabolic. Increasing yields makes growth harder. So the thought process back then was to suppress growth. I have some theories on why they wanted growth suppression. My ideas are extreme as they are, so I will try to put them into the suppressing field. After this parabolic growth that occured backstage, the recession nobody remembers ocurred. Yields suppress growth. Yields as a stability mechanism. Yield increases however can cause the opposite problem, money scarcity and liquidity problems. Yields cause recessions. Yields as an instability mechanism. _______________________________________________________ Now onto VIX. This year's recession was a time when financial stability had to occur to calm the markets. Back in 1929 we didn't have such mechanisms. The main chart, VVIX, shows us that there is substantial volatility management backstage. While I don't know the mechanisms for SPX and VIX stabilization, I have some theories. There are now massive hedge funds that can easily stabilize the equity/derivative market. VIX is a traded index, so hoarding contracts could in theory artificially change the VIX value. That is why I advised on volatility analysis by comparing VIX with volatility indicators. Hedge Funds (amongst other mechanisms) suppress volatility. Smart Money as a stability mechanism. I have posted before about the VVIX/VIX chart and how it can help us analyze SPX growth stability. So the question arises, how much and for how long have markets been manipulated? Surely in 1929 there was nothing one could do to stabilize the markets. That is why the recession was so deep and painful. We had no brakes. Manipulation/stabilization works in a consistent manner, when VIX peaks we suppress it. Suppression works by making VIX more predictable and less spiky. So inherently VIX manipulation decreases VVIX. With these charts we can see the stabilization mechanism in action. In the middle of the 2008 recession, in May-June we had this period when psychology briefly changed from pessimism to optimism. It is the denial phase of psychology. More about that in the "VIX | The effect on SPX" idea linked below. It is this vicious cycle during the VIX manipulation period that drags us further down inside the recession. VIX suppression cycle pulls economy into a vicious cycle. Stability mechanisms as instability mechanisms. _______________________________________________________ Onto some speculation: Perhaps we are in a long-term recession, since 2018. Again, look into "The Cake is a Lie" idea. Back in 2018 we were in a recession while equities were rapidly increasing. Now we are growing with equities dropping. This is nuts!!! Look at this VVIX/VIX chart comparison. In this chart I have hidden the price of VVIX/VIX and left just the EMA Ribbon. That is what we live through now. I drew a retracement from this specific point in time so as to better pinpoint the possible targets for VVIX/VIX. This chart suggests that we have never went through the crisis since 2018. I know this is crazy to say, but look at this chart below. RSI divergence confirms that. Perhaps the RSI of SPX correlates better to the VVIX/VIX chart. _______________________________________________________ Conclusion: So where does this leaves us? The fact that we have passed through two periods of upside down phenomena (2018 and 2021), when equities were increasing in a recession, and vice versa. This troubles me, as to how much is hidden. How big of a problem are we in and we have just not realized it yet. Moral of the story again? Don't believe what you are told and what you are shown. Don't listen to me as well. Do your own research. There may still be massive volatility ahead of us. VVIX is suppressed by more than 30%. If VVIX returns to normal levels ~120 and the VVIX/VIX targets are correct, this means that VIX will increase 3.5x from what it is now. As a number it makes sense because it takes us to the peak of the 2020 Black Swan. VIX has every possibility to go incredibly high. QE and Stabilization Mechanisms themselves have caused this fog. In our attempt to stabilize the economy, we have clouded our vision. The suppressing field will be shut off, on the day we have mastered ourselves. On the day we can prove, we no longer need it. And that day of transformation, I have it on good authority, is close at hand. -Dr. Breen
V
by akikostas
Fear curve inversionWe are all familiar when a bear market starts. The fear instantly hits us, the cold sweat. We've all been there... To study bear markets and crashes, we need to study human psychology. Curiously, it is very predictable. This is your mind, my mind, everyone's mind. Either you go through depression, either through financial disaster, it is the same. I tried analyzing psychology before in this idea down below, I really enjoyed it. As a trader, you might use two moving averages, for example one 50 day and one 200 day. To make sense of where you are, you need two measures. VIX is a measure of what we think future volatility will look like. So to make sense of it, you need something to compare it to. Answer? Current volatility. TradingView offers a neat little tool called "Historical Volatility". So we have a way to estimate current SPX volatility and compare it to what everyone thinks volatility will be like in the next 30 days (VIX). So I devised this chart, on top we see SPX. On bottom white we have a moving average of VIX index. On bottom orange we have the current volatility as measured by the indicator. Let's head to a period of a "bear market". A period when relative calm exists and noone expects a crash. During this period, we see that whenever there is a drop followed by a bear rally, the future expected volatility (VIX) decreases. Actual volatility (orange line) increases. It shows that everyone expects LESS volatility in the future ahead. Since a significant part of investors were convinced the bottom was in. The same we witness now. This is a vicious circle, something fundamental has to change in psychology to change the outcome. Either we find the button to fix all our problems, or we face the consequences that are fated to come upon us. Down below I add some screenshots showing the periods where orange was above white. This is a period when we are hopeful of the future ahead of us, after we pass some trouble that came. If you need more info, do read the linked idea called "VIX | The effect on SPX" PS. Just like yield curve inversions, there is room for error. A fear curve inversion means that you just have to stay alert. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
2
Warning VIX model is now set up to SOAR My work posted a few days back call for a drop to below 20 .Today we saw this and I was 85 % plus net long goint into this morning in trow spy qqq smh aapl and calls I HAVE SOLD EVERYTHING net gain 3.5 to 4.6 % I am now back to 100 % cash the net gain for 2022 is now back above 64.2 % . I stated this rally would be very strong into jan 3/10 2023 see 1973 chart dec 15 . The issue is now that the VIX did not get up to mid 24 /27 as I had hoped . So what is next well we had 4 days below the bb bands which on odds rallies min back into it and we saw that today . I do NOT like the pattern in the vix see the arrows and this formation the last 4/5 times the VIX SOARED > I am flat and I will not short . I am NOT SURE with this setup I must PROTECT GAINS as everyone else takes losses of min 20 % see forecast dec 2021 model min drop 20% for 2022 well 2023 I think we will see another 16.8 to 21 % drop I am working on the cycles as well as the SPIRALS . best of trades WAVETIMER
TVC:VIX
by wavetimer
2
VIX | The effect on SPXI would like to do some qualitative analysis on VVIX/VIX, and it's behavior/effect on markets. We will try to pinpoint some "wave types". A. The most consistent/stable growth for SPX occurs in times of stable VIX and stable VVIX. Their ratio remains the same. B. At times of decreasing VIX and increasing VVIX, we have an unstable, impulsive upwards wave. This occurs after a VIX peak. While everyone expects a lower VIX, as time passes markets get increasingly indecisive about the future of VIX. Therefore VVIX increases. VIX measures the sentiment of SPX, while VVIX the sentiment of VIX. C. A period of unusually low VIX leads to speculative growth. This growth in the end, traps both the VVIX/VIX chart, and the price chart. D. In the above waves, VVIX/VIX is either trending up or horizontally for prolonged periods. A variation from it is a period of prolonged VVIX/VIX drop. During this period, sentiment is homogenous, everyone believes that VIX will increase. A consistent belief in the VIX fate, is pushing VVIX lower. An unusually low VVIX describes a period like now, or 2008. Everyone is preparing for the drop. Some examples will follow: D WAVE (2008-2009) I have highlighted two very important points during this drop. First, the small circles. This is the point of a rapid sentiment change. Curiously, this point is many months after the FED is done with rate hikes. It is actually when it begins to drop rates. The big circles are in a period of denial, a period during which everyone believes that the bottom is in. VVIX/VIX attempts to escape the descending channel. B WAVE (2009-2011) A WAVE (2012-2015) C WAVE (2016-2018) I find very interesting the retracements that occured after this rapid growth. C WAVE (2020-2021) D WAVE (2022) Just like 2008, the shift in sentiment in September 2021 is very apparent. Likewise, now we are witnessing the period of denial. As a final thought, what we are witnessing with the D waves is not the effect of FED, it is the effect of sentiment on it's own. We witness the specific points of sentiment change, which don't depend (?) on the FED hike schedule. And curiously, they are in identical spots as in 2008. One before the peak, one in the point of denial. Perhaps what everyone fears is the terminal rate. Or we fear the drop, we fear of losing. I don't know...
V
by akikostas
2
How VIX follows SPXVIX is a measure of volatility. It takes the last 30 days of SPX, and measures it's variance. I would guess that VVIX does the exact same thing to VIX, it takes the recent 30 days of VIX, and measures it's variance. These two, along with SKEW are some of the methods investors calculate risk. I don't have the technical/financial knowledge on the ways investors can use risk management for better financial decisions. If we do some "magic" we can transform these notoriously unchartable indices. I am aware that since VIX takes the value of SPX, gets affected by both the volatility and the price of SPX. So technically from it's nature VIX tracks SPX. If, for example, we plot the chart (1-VIX) we will see the following: As we already know, he inverse of VIX follows SPX. Low volatility equals high SPX. The calculation logic of the chart is: Scale down VVIX such that it is in a similar scale to VIX. Then subtract one from the other. SPX is scaled down, after we divide it by M2SL. I would guess that from 2009 to 2019, the growth was sustained because VIX was consistently low. I also noticed that VVIX this year is incredibly low. One would expect that with such this year's recession that VVIX would also pick up the pace. During periods of very high volatility like the Great Recession, VVIX tracks VIX. Not this year however... As a fellow trader pointed out quite some time ago: Now VIX is higher and it's behavior with VVIX is very similar to 2008. We could say that the current situation is much similar to 2000 or with 1970s with stagflation and not 2008. Some things however, they smell foul. The elephant in the room maybe... SKEW is in an all-time low. This could encourage investors to over-expose. THAT is when crashes happen. Overexposing when liquidity is being dried up from the FED, is a recipe for disaster. Even if we grow from here and everyone wins, who will have the money to pay back all these winnings? Especially now, with everyone investing like crazy, over-leveraging and such. And if EVERYONE is buying, who is selling? "Buying the dip" is part of the equation... I believe that the bottom is NOT in yet. And since charting indirect stuff like VIX, like housing, yields, energy, all point to the same direction, I cannot ignore them. PS. The elephant is the collapsed worldwide-production-chain. The elephant is that we are one step away from war or famine. And maybe, just maybe, the elephant is long gone... we just don't know it yet. And we are talking about how the DOW will not fall. We are convinced that we are in the bottom and we are buying the dip. We are dreaming of more money quicker. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori I am not a trader, I am a father of a cat named Alyx. Don't take what I say as trading advice.
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by akikostas
VVIX vs VIX - What can we tell from itBelieve it or not - The Stocks volatility index (VIX) has it's own Volatility index (VVIX) - and if we compare the two, it looks like VVIX has touched onceagain bottom trendline - how did that reflect on VIX? VIX bottoming was always delayed for 9 to 100+ days after VVIX bottomed. What to expect ? That in an average range of 40+ days VIX should bottom and start going up - And according to my overall analysis - we are just before a big fall - therefore this is the last moments for stocks. In other words - Bullish until EOY.
VLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 Currently the volatility for this week is around 12.11% , up from expected 8.8% last week. According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 10th percentile. Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is : BEAR : 9.4% from the opening point of the weekly candle BULL : 11.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle At the same time, currently there is 22.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to break and close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 29.3 BOT: 24.5 Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a : 35% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high 60% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
TVC:VIX
by exlux
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions. are we trending or ranging? - a series of higher highs, higher lows - sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold discount? - we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block - Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38 managing trade? - Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75 - Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs. In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5