Weekend
Weekend Reversals on BitcoinNote how since the start of 2018 Bear Market we "reverse" all changes after weekends (spikes in either direction if any) to start mondays at roughly the same price level as before or at least retest that level (probably to sync with the futures). We are currently moving in a down channel and are still being rejected by EMAs, will likely bounce down from the ichimoku flat bottom.
There's also another theory that each 6th of the month we have a notable reversal point. June 6th could be next.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Potential for A Positive Weekend AheadBitcoin Saturday Trades
Bitcoin survived through the night by moving into a triangle
formation off the lows before breaking into the weekend with
a break above the uppermost parallel, followed by a sweet
and successful retest of the same line from above once
broken, before finally rallying again off the dynamic and
triggering the first long for a while now.
Thank F for weekends! Bitcoin's saving grace. It's now on
weekend release...
It's since shot up to 7624 high, to just under the 7644 line on
Bitinex and it has to consolidate here a while before the rally
can recommence.
It should find support from the 7524 line and from 7467 at
worst before it starts to rally again. Am happy, so far at least,
to stay long for the ride.
On the downside Bitcoin will have to break back below 7399
line here and hold under it to consider switching back to short
again from this point.
For now though, it's back to buying dips unless 7399 gives way
at any point further out this weekend.
Bitcoin BTCUSD Weekend Trade OpportunitiesBitcopin Update Saturday 08:45gmt 03:45est
So far the low this weekend is 8223, a couple of points below
the next near term downside target at 8225. Bitcoin is now
counter-rallying back to test the upper parallel at 8330-8350
and should come off again from here and from 8392 at highest
before falling away to 8155 and ideally then to a low around
7946 on Coinbase before making a meaningful rally.
To eascape the downtrend earlier than this Bitcoin has to
break above 8392 and hold up there on the retest. That looks
unlikely at present but we still need to be prepared for it just
in case a reversal occurs earlier than curently anticipated.
Bitcoin Coinbase Weekend Forecast Friday 22:38gmt
This feed had to break below 8660 and the lower parallel to
trigger next short which it did before rallying back up to
break level, exceeding it by 11 points before falling away
again. It's now testing the support line at 8400 which is
previous structure highs.
Although it should put a fight here for a while and can rally
back tot the upper parallel again it should fall away again
later.
Can close out the short here and re-enter on a fall below
8370. It should fall away in stages then to 8225, then 8155
and perhaps finally to a 7946 low.
On the upside Bitcoin has to break above the parallel
controlling the upside to get any near term respite from the
bears .
BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekend Trade PointsBitcoin Weekend Trade Points
We waited patiently all day Friday for the buy signal on the
exit of the continuation pattern (recent buy-points, top-most
green arrow) which finally arrived at the 9670 level on
Bitfinex. Since then Bitcoin has rallied back towards the 9850
line after an overnight high at 9889 before consolidating.
So far the consolidation has taken place inside the the two
top-most lines of support/resistance and inside the spike highs
of Thursday/Friday and off the small rising dynamic
supporting the overnight rally so far. Longs can raise the stop
to just under 9760 as if it breaks below here it will likely fall
away again to 9584-9544 where it becomes a buy again if
tested at any point later today.
On the upside, whilst Bitcoin holds up from the first support
at 9772 the overall trend remains positive - we can stay with
it until the rising dynamic under price fails or better still,
until upside targets are met.
The next upside target is 10089. Bitcoin then has to break
above here to really crank up the volume - all the way to
11687 potentially. Let's see what the weekend brings. All we
have to do is be ready if it comes our way.
Can also add or buy again once the tiny dynamic from the
overnight high is broken to the upside with stops below.
Short XAUUSD ???depending triangel, if break bearish continuation
make some money for weekend margarita :D
ETHUSD A Positive Weekend AheadETHUSD
Still looks in good shape for a test of 741 and then 768 this
weekend and further out in time looks likely to test the 896
level too.
Right now it's waiting on Bitcoin to break higher - which it
should do later on today.
The overall trend remains positive and retests of the lower
parallel are still buying opportunities as the rally moves
higher.
BTCUSD Weekend Trade Points From HereBitcoin BItfinex Weekend Trade Points From Here
The low overnight was 7820 on Bitstamp, some 30 points away from target range.
To add to the poor call the stop was lowered to 7917 and the high about 10 minutes later was 7922 - that 5 points was just enough to destroy the short for 80 or so points profit when it might have been more. It also prevented a potential reverse long from triggering in the process.
Not too good but could have been worse.
Since then Bitcoin has formed a smaller continuation pattern within a larger bear flag, emerging from its upside with a nice pulse of green up to the next resistance line at 8163 after a high at 8185.
It should come back to the 8046-8013 range where it should then rally again for a 4th and maybe minor 5th wave up which has to break above 8232 line to fly higher still today and trigger the next long from here with stops 50 or more lower if we see it later on. If it can manage this the next resistance lies off the upper parallel of the flag. A sell again from there if touched at any point later this weekend.
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Bitcoin for the Weekend - Key Buy and sell LevelsBitcoin BTCUSD
Bitcoin rallied to meet the previous peak prior to news of the
lastest hack on Thursday night, precisely on Bitfinex chart,
before falling away again. Right now it's neutral as we await
the next trading signal to trigger as Bitoin moves towards the
apex of the triangle and hopefully reveals its hand so we can
trade off that signal when it arrives.
If at any point the lower dynamic support line gives way and
then 11100 breaks Bitcoin will likely turn negative and trigger
a short back to 10750 at least, and if this gives way back to
10497 where it will become a buy again if touched later
today.
And on upside it has move up above 11230 to trigger a long
with stops under 11100 - resistance levels at 11336 and at
11438 then need to be broken and only when we see this will
Bitcoin begin to attract more buyers again for move up to
11646 and on up through the restsance levels above it to an
upside target at 12950.
It's still positive whilst above the big rising dynamic but slow
and lacking interest, and hence neutral now. So we await the
next signal for the next trade here, as above.
$BTC - Some tests aheadWe are currently might be in a trend-change.
1) The chart could funnel out of the pink triangle up to break the downtrend , down to continue downwards.
2) The second and bigger test is right around the end of the blue triangle, approximately at the end of January.
FIB time zone seems to mark a milestone around there as well, so we might see $BTC getting back at it.
Bitcoin BTCUSD Bitcoin and Klondike Compared/Next Buy PointsBitcoin Weekend Update - Bitcoin and Klondike Compared - Next Buy Points
After the selling climax reached post S Korean news Bitcoin, if it was to continue acting like text-book version of how a coin
should move, was expected to rally back to the very start point of the rout and then consolidate. Overnight Bitcoin
played by the book. Actually the high on Bitstamp was 14468, some 29 points under the actual point of rout, but not bad.
This beast a proper thorough-bred. Earlier yesterday either you got stopped out at 13700 for 1000 points profit, or if using
the 'other' service which cannot be mentioned by name under threat of yet another ban (see top left of sumastardon page,
under big green S for more details of that if a Bitcoin aficionado) will have managed to exit very close to the top of
the run yesterday at just under 14150 for some 1440 points profit, or 10% of Bitcoin in 12 hours flat. We can make some
serious returns on Bitcoin without ever having to 'own' it for very long...too risky! Trading this monster is in reality way
LESS risky than owning it. Since that trade we have gone long around 13600 and lost 60 points and gone long again from
13417-13370 range with the subsequent low being struck at 13391, right in the centre of the lowest downside target, and
has since rallied overnight to retest the S Korea pre-news level to within those few points at 14437. If you closed out
close to those levels that was fine trading and another 1020 points won...so up to 2400 points 'mined' in just 44 hours or so
of frantically...twiddling our thumbs and hitting a button about 6 times. When you stop to compare the hardships we
have to endure to mine a few points/dollars from the rich seam in the sky to those faced by the men who set out to find
their dreams in, say, the Klondike gold rush it makes the head spin. The risks they took and the broken dreams they took
home with them, if they survived the ordeal, bear no comparison. They were looking for something real (gold) and
for the most part couldn't find it. We look for something 'unreal' and seem to find it everywhere. We don't have to
cross oceans and climb 'golden staircases' in deepest winter risking our very lives to find it like some of our ancestors did. Could this have been you in another age?
We can sit at home and watch Bitcoin and chill. Way more exciting than Netflix ever was or could be, no? But there's a
deep irony there too. We are so damn lucky. Do we realise it? Well we really are making it 'real' in some respects. We are
turning something that might still be unreal into something tangible and very real. Bitcoin = points = dollars. E=MC2 for
miners. And so long as we hold the dollars who cares if it's real or not? That is not our problem. Our only 'problem' is
spotting patterns in the seam and trading/mining them. That is all we should be concerned with, pretty much - as well
handling tax returns - which should be quite large unless you're planning ahead...
But back to the now, now. Bitcoin is consolidating overnight gains and now has to push on through that high from overnight and break above 14460 to really power ahead again from here, triggering the next long for 500 points to 14960 - otherwise we wait for lower values. First support is at 14081 but gets stronger at 13965-13900 range ...look to buy the dips still, Bitcoin is beginning to get back on its feet
Bitcoin BTCUSD Key break levels for this weekendBitcoin Weekend Update
Lost the plot overnight with Bitcoin. It lost trck of the parallels but hasn't fallen away again to the lows but instead
has made a good right shoulder at 13700 and has bounced .
That is really positive overnight price action. In the process
Bitcoinn has formed a reverse head and shoulders with the neckline at 14874 and a minimum upside measurement
implication at 18631. We've just seen Bitcoin make a head and shoulders top with a downside minimum measurement target
at 11391 (reached and exceeded by 240 odd points) - it will be interesting to see how it performs in reverse now.
Bitcoin should rally to the necxkline at 14874 and pause ...this line is now the dividing line between bears on one side and
bulls on the other. Tghus is the line in the sand that determines wheether Bitcoin has a great weekend ahead - or
a depressing one, though the bigger parallel above should also present a problem ahead once that neckline is broken to the
upside. Firstly though, Bitcoin has to break the neckline at 14874 and then it should move up to to test the parallel above
it at around 15330 now - will likely recoil on first touch of the parallel and can then come back to the neckline agin to retest
from above...must hold on that retest...then another attempt to breach the big parallel above ...and then once that's
popped and broken through it should really begin to attract buyers again, moving higher to 15814, then 17229 and on up
through the blue lines of resistance to 18631 minimum.
Downside Potential
Until the neckline is breached at 14874 Bitcoin is not out of the woods...the entire zone below here belongs to the bears
now...they will try to force price under the neckline and to keep it there, knowing this and the parallel are their last lines
of defense now. Would be better if this were France and not Russia in WW2 and the bears all ran away at the first shot.
But that looks unlikely. If flat stay that way for now and await the break or can try for a short from the neckline when
touched with stops just 50 points above - Bitcoin will remain vulnerable to tricks like this whilst unable to burst the
neckline- and the longer it goes on the more likley it will fall away again...but if so must hold onto that right hand shoulder
it's spent all night building in China at 14035 preferably and at 13500 at lowest on any declines from here...if it can do this
it's still OK/bullish intent remains strong and will then make another attempt to break the neckline. Only if 13500 is
broken will Bitcoin begin to look very vulnerable again, likely then to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin back into terrible technical trouble and likley force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324. But whilst the right hand shoulder stands firm on retests at 13500 Bitcoin is still overall positive.
Look to buy the break of the neckline when it comes and close again on the test of the parallel above - then get ready to go long again when the upper parallel is broken on the upside.
BTGUSD Full rinse out - ready to go again ahead of weekendBTGUSD Full Rinse Out Ready to go again
Back in the buy zone ahead of weekend- it's been to the lows
at 193 where it was an outstanding buy and may present
another opportunity either from lower down again towards
193 or alternatively once 212 has been regained and holds for
a few minutes. The 191 level must hold up today to avoid
further significant weakness back to 151 (a good
short/reversal level for longs if we see it)
MACD, Elliot wave, Sideways to Ichimoku CloudXBT on bitmex failed to break the ATH this morning and due to lower volumes on the weekend we are expecting to go sideways till Ichimoku cloud tomorrow at 5pm.
After the beautiful aligator and elliot wave confirmed via MACD indicator, we expect low fluctuation today and tomorrow. Make quick trades and sell approaching ATH as we expect will not be enough to support new ATH.
BTGUSD Next Buy PointsBTGUSD Next Buy Points
Well it got to 304, not as quickly as anticipated, taking a
whole 20 hours or so to reach the upper parallel/target for a
34 point win in a tricky market, 2 points hy of the target, but
the hit on the parallel was so good I'm claiming this one as a
victory, imperfectly perfect, is all.
So the next buy point here is around current values down to
287 with stops at 284, next below here will be 272 again if we
see it. And the place to a to these will be on a break above
the parallel...this will free BTG up to fly much higher if we
see it and must be followed (usual drill on a breakout). If it
can manage we have a realy good weekend in store here.
ETHUSD Next Buy Point: Flag Formation - againETHUSD Neutral but underlying still strong whilst working inside the flag
Won't quit. It's spent the last few hours consolidating gains by
hammering out another flag. Two strikes on the lower parallel
shows this is still 'hot'. A buy of the lower parallel but close
out at the upper parallel if day trading. A break above the
upper parallel can be followed for next momentum break but
be careful ...very whippy! (see last break of the last flag).
IF at any point ETH loses the lower parallel of the flag it will
start to unravel for a while. Don't buy rallies if this happens.
Need to stand back awhile at that point if it happens.
This shouldn't really revisit the lower parallel if it's to remain
'hot' from here
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Something for the Weekend Breakout ScenarioBitcoin: BTCUSD Update into the Weekend:Scenarios
The battle continues and finally the bears have made an impression on the upper parallel, pushing price down to 7800,
where pin bars from earlier show some demand (not shown on chart, but significant to the very near term now). There is no
winner yet, though. It can move sideways from here, meeting demand off the parallel and more still at 7717 freezer lid
level and down to 7660 at an absolute pinch, building a new rectangular range between 7717 and 7990-8000. It can move
sideways further, out of the pull of the parallels, large and small, but still be Ok so long as 7717-7660 holds - but it would
be a sign of strength if it could avoid all that, use the large parallel as support and then power higher, and back through
the neck line again - if and when it gathers enough buying power to manage that, this next time could well prove
successful in breaking the last bears that still stand strong at 7990-8000. So far, from their viewpoint, looking down the
mountain from 8000 with stops just above, there's nothing to scare them...yet. OK, that big bear raid first thing in London
didn't work out so well for them this time, but their stops still haven't pinged yet. When that happens and 8000 is broken by
20 points it becomes another breakout/momentum play. It will maybe need China to open to create enough
volume...they like breakouts - but we need to see one now to add to long positions from here...should it come (but think it
will at some point this weekend even if they try to sell it off in China first thing Saturday) it could well be explosive in
nature. Doesn't have to be but could well be. And once 8000 is actually broken the upside is, by nature of the beast,
incalculable. Anyone who says they have a value for Bitcoin is not to be trusted any more than asking your dog how much it's
worth. No one has ANY clue. It could be 15000, it could be 30000, it could be 5000 and it could be 5 one day. No one
knows. You KNOW that though. And it's enough to make money - big money - either way. You don't even have to
believe in Bitcoin per se, just believe what the chart is telling you, and no one else.
And so to the poential for downside this weekend coming: the big parallel remains the first line of support, and then
7717-7660 (stops for remaining longs from 7570 tight under 7660). So if 7717 fails and then 7060 also then fails we have a
near term problem emerging and Bitcoin should fall away to 7531 again and the rectangular range suddenly expands from
8000 at top to 7531 at bottomwith 7717 as the dividing line between the three...fantastic for day traders, trading
between these lines. This could take a large part of Saturday to play out if we see it..again great for day traders, a nice
wide range to play within, potentially developing this weekend as a consequence of this type of price action, if 7717
gives way, as above. But, the bull case is strong whilst above 7717 and still just fine at 7531. But if this fails at any point
this weekend, the bears are getting control again. It's a buy on any retest of 7531 with stop just under 7500 for rally to
7719. Then close if a day trader and only go long again from 7730 to 7980 with a stop under 7700, trading between the
three blue lines.
Long Story short:
Turn aggressively bullish again on a break above 8000 by 20 points, that can be sustained (very careful here as it could
explode upwards, and potentially downwards too, so stops need using and the risk of being hit quite high so they need to
be some way away from 8000 if longs are triggered, at least 100) This is still tough work but the bulls won't quit... That
parallel above, just holding it back now...if it breaks above it soon, then the break out could well follow soon after. Good
for swing traders. Otherwise we'll be heading for a Saturday made for day-traders, as above.
And turn aggressively bearish again only a break below 7531 looking to short rallies back u
