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Cardano to follow suit on the Verge (XVG) breakout? (+600% pot.)Verge has been on a rampage the last couple of days, exploding in price with strong momentum. The strongest catalyst being the knowledge of a pending announcement of a very big partnership (announcement planned for April 17th). It is supposed to be an exclusive partnership with a lot of impact. Hence, we have ourselves an anticipatory price movement. Now, first of all, prepare yourself for the typical buy the rumour, sell the news phenomenon. Make sure you have your stop losses set. This might be a timing for the handle to start forming. Verge: ----- Could Verge be running ahead of Cardano? In my previous posts on Cardano, I first highlighted that it was not time to catch that falling knife, as the bearish trend remained intact for some time. My first article discussed this back on February 20: "ADA / Cardano - WHEN will the downtrend end?" : On March 19th, I called the bottom and I speculated on a potential cup and handle forming: "Cardano diving into the 2nd part of a cup & handle? (600% + potential)": ------ TODAY: As per today, we are trading near the 78,6% Fibonacci retracement level (blue horizontal line), we have made a bull cross in the MACD a little while ago, and basically we seem to be set for that second part of the cup. If we look at the Verge graph, we see several similarities, and whereas Verge has its big announcement the 17th of April, Cardano will be making announcements somewhere around or after that time (with a.o. a roadmap update in the beginning of May). This could indicate a similar price movement for ADA as we see now for Verge (which is basically a bombastic ride up!). ------- This is of course only a scenario, but one that still seems to be panning out. Make sure to put some stop losses for Verge (buy the rumour, sell the news), and have a look at Cardano ;) As always, DYOR, and thumbs up on this post are highly appreciated! All the best
Long
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
1
Cardano diving into the 2nd part of a Cup & handle? (+600% pot.)I previously posted about the downtrend of Cardano and how & when it would end. The downtrend remained intact (& we know we shouldn’t fight the trend, but wait until there’s a confirmed reversal). Here’s the graph back then: The graph now shows how that downtrend has continued to persist, yet given the likely soon upward curving of the MACD (as you can see quite clearly in the MACD ("1") under the graph, this might bode well for entering the second half of a cup & handle figure. Granted, there might be a bit too much volume to speak of a cup & handle, but I wanted to let the bulls in your head dream a little ;-) RSI confirms a somewhat more bullish stance in "2" as it is about to get out of the oversold area in turning more inclined to a bull trend. You can clearly see that Cardano at its “ATH” , had the RSI in the exact opposite area, just as with the MACD by the way. This makes it at least relevant enough to propose it as a possible scenario that Cardano could be going for! ;-) PS: I previously suggested a similar formation for ICX: Conclusion: if this were to pan out as a cup & handle figure, there lies huge potential in the future price movement for Cardano. The current retracement implies a potential target of +600% to over 14000 sat. PS1: This is ONE of several possible scenarios - I'm just sharing it so we can include it in the ideas list! PS2: This is not investment advice, DYOR.
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
4
LINK - Flirting with a crazy break-out?! (+250% potential)Quick post on Link upon request! - Have a look at this crazy graph of LINK versus the Dollar. Nice curve up. Bloody curve down! Seems like we just hit the 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and we have another strong support beneath that as well. And as is quite obvious, the curve is about to end where we are now... So yes, LINK is flirting like hell with both the end of the curve, AND the end of the triangle. It really doesn't get more exciting than that to see how it pans out. Looking at a potential target of 350% (or +250% versus current price - of course not by tomorrow). Given the upcoming main net launch in Q2 , we also have a strong fundamental catalyst to get this one pumped (e.g. people will then stake their LINK-holdings - cfr. Vechain; + this is required for their highly ambitious plan to get decentralised "Oracles"). Moreover, in the MACD we see a golden cross , while the Stochastic Momentum Index provides a more mixed view (first still some movement down before we can really lift off?) Furthermore, it would make sense that this one starts the second part of the cup and handle here, although volume has been spiking all over the place, which is rather uncommon. We already had some nice green volume in the previous days. If we have that when we hit the triangle resistance somewhere in the next days, that would be great news for a bullish break-out. On the 4-hourly, we indeed see some bearish signals, hinting to a downmove first . But after that, theory suggests we should see some decent uptake. 4hourly chart versus the dollar: Let's check the BTC graph: This one seems to tell a similar story, although it formed a cool cup & handle-ish figure and then made a triangly handle. Now, that would be one ugly and loooooong handle, so I I'm not sure we should consider it like that. But the point remains, it is approaching the end of the triangle with similar signals as in the USD graph. So after this rapid analysis: likely first a leg down before we can go for a break-out test. The chart tells the remainder of the story quite clearly. Good luck. PS: if you liked this post, please give it a like so I know you as a community at least appreciate these posts :-) - I'll update as of 15 likes ;-) .
BINANCE:LINKUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
5
ETH - This MIGHT be the trend reversal indicatorHi guys. We MIGHT be in for a first small trend reversal as we are having a Heikin Ashi doji candle, highlighted by the white arrow. As in one of the updates of my previous post, I mentioned that the yellow horizontal (top & resistance of June & September) acts as a support for Ethereum. Fair, we actually kind of broke it, but seems like we are keeping close to it and the chart is creating a Heikin Ashi doji just underneath. See the sidenote here below for a quick refresh on what Heikin Ashi candles are. We NEED an upward move (in the form of a green candle) after this doji candle, to be able to start talking about a break-out. Preferably above the yellow line. We are ALSO seeing a golden gross now in the MACD and likewise in the Stochastic Momentum Index below. In the latter, you can see that we haven’t had a bull cross in that low of an area before, hinting to a strong positive signal. Also, RSI is in the clear oversold area (not shown here). While sentiment is still very bearish, and we are more then obvious still in the downward trend channel, we are absolutely not in the clear yet. But always nice to see those hints of hope and trend reversal. Also have a look at that first green volume bar, albeit well below average volume. So… let’s keep attentive of the next candles, volume, and price movement. This might be the beginning of a trend reversal – BUT could easily be dispelled. Best thing to do remains either sitting on the side line or if you are already in there, to HODL HODL HODL. PS1 - this is by no means to be considered formal investment advice PS2 - Always nice if you can gently click on the thumbs up button - it's not a lot of effort but it makes my heart light up! ;-) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sidenote on Heikin Ashi (feel free to skip this) The difference lies in how candle sticks are calculated: Close = (open + high + low + close) / 4 High = maximum of high, open, or close (whichever is highest) Low = minimum of low, open, or close (whichever is lowest) Open = (open of previous bar + close of previous bar) / 2 FYI: A doji candle is a commonly found pattern in a candle stick chart, characterised by being small in length - meaning a small trading range - and with an open - and close price that are virtually equal. FYI2: A spinning top is another Japanese candle stick pattern with a short body found in the middle of two long wicks. FYI3: Heikin Ashi candles can be found in Trading view under the candle stick section and by clicking the 4rd option; these work somewhat differently than regular candle sticks. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
1
(!) BTC - The 2017 DEATH triangle or the 2017 GOLDEN triangleExciting times turning into even more exciting times. Those who were already sitting on the edge of their seats are now about to really fall off. That chair is volatile-ishly vibrating beneath all of our bottoms on what seems to be a hint of an imminent earthquake knocking on crypto’s door. Those who are still sitting on that chair are asking themselves whether they will fall off or whether the chair’s legs themselves will break first, consequently cracking everyone’s ass. Bitcoin is closing in on a crucial turning point. It is once again UP. Or Out. In that regard, we have a very large triangle staring us right in the face – waiting for our move. Will we start buying massively, or do the exact opposite. Either way, a triangle break-out is at hand. Now the ball is in our camp – how will we let this triangle be recorded into crypto history books? Will we name it the “2017 GOLDEN TRIANGLE”, followed by another amazing bull run? Or will we name it the “2017 DEATH TRIANGLE”, directly ensued by EVEN MORE blood in the streets than already is the case. Yes, that’s bloody. Maximum down so far in excess of a 70% correction from a $20K zenith to a nadir at $6K. Such a market reset makes even the largest stock market crashes start to look a little pale. And the next major support zone at $4K only, lurking at us – is awaiting our choice. So… for the moment we have strong support at $7,4K more or less and we are still in a consolidation rectangle. We are approaching the decision zone of the triangle as well. We also have one additional support zone at the 78,6% Fibonacci which was already tested back on February 5th and November 12th. The question is: Do we all wanna become crypto whales – or crypto rekt? The choice is ours. The choice is yours. By the way - any name tagging alternatives? - The Houdini / Crypto Bermuda triangle (previous gains evaporated) - The Golden Bull triangle - The Super Bull triangle - ... PS1 : No specific investment advice here, just philosophic contemplation. Has to be done too sometimes. PS2: Yes, this doesn't provide you much investment advice, or... does it? All the best & good luck in your trading endeavours
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
5
MOD/BTC – Modum = momentum. Trade possibility.In tandem with the overall crypto market, Modum has been crushed as well – losing over 70% of its value. On March 20, we broke out of the downward trend channel that started at the top beginning of January. That was a nice buying moment – albeit I didn’t write about it (can’t be writing all the time can we :-) ) Nevertheless, the new upward trend channel provides some trading opportunities, and in the meanwhile, we just need to keep an eye out on trend reversals. When we zoom in on the graph, we see a nice upward trend channel with up-and down spikes in nice triangle formations. They are always accompanied by a bullish cross in the MACD and in the Chande Momentum Oscillator. Given that we are back at the down part of the trend channel and that we are closing in on a new MACD bull cross, we are likely getting ready for another run up. Targets Place your targets near the Fibonacci lines drawn and cover your position. Fibonacci levels (we’re currently at the 2967 or 38,2% level): - 2851 sat (23,6%) - 2967 sat (38,2%) - 3016 sat (50% level) - 3154 sat (61,8%) - 3287 sat (78,6%) Obviously, we absolutely want to have a stop loss for when we would break out of the trend channel, so place those accordingly. Notice that there is a lot of remaining upward potential apart from the shorter term targets mentioned here. Moreover, we are getting closer to a triangle formation with the support line of the current trend channel as a base! Zoom out of graph for more targets: Triangle formation on the channel support: Conclusion: Place your targets near the upper Fibonacci horizontals, cover your losses near the lower Fibo's and there where the trend would be broken. Or just go up with it as long as the trend is friendly! PS: not to be considered as formal trading advice, DYOR Feel free to like if you like the post :-)
M
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
5
ETH - The last red mile before the sun sets in?Ethereum has had a bloody couple of months behind it - All time high back to the ground. It crushed major support areas in 1 and 2. Now it is approaching bottom 3. This time might be different. We have a very strong golden cross in the MACD, and an RSI that dipped at 17 and now around 23. That's clearly in the oversold zone. These two indicators by themselves, without even a chart above it, would in theory tell us one thing - b u y. If Ethereum bounces on that level, it can get ready to break the triangle that is forming there. (also note how Ethereum bounced off off the Fibonacci 78,6% level on March 18th - we have a support both on the longer term trend line, but also on the Fibonacci 78,6% retracement!) The Stochastic momentum index shows us that there indeed is some red first to come before we hit the support and before we can start to rebound: I don't think we have to say many more words than this. Can ETH break that support and go even lower? Yes, it can. But the odds are way lower than an apparent bounce. And that bounce is something MACD and RSI are telling us, if not, even yelling. Conclusion : Ethereum will fall some more (as it does already today) before it will bounce from the support level. After that, it can get ready to beat the triangle. The odds are very much in favour of that scenario. So what are you gonna place as your orders? PS: this is by no means to be considered as investment / speculation / trading advice, merely a personal objective analysis. PS2: I would be very grateful if you like the post - gives me some boost to keep posting this free stuff ;)
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
11
Moon potential! Recent ICO coins - AELF (ELF/BTC)In this post I'm taking a completely different approach as usual - looking for the hidden gems or ... recent "ICO" coins that have been dumped in the bear market yet have immense growth potential, and due to the bear market - even more "mooning" potential ! ------- This post is about AELF ("ELF") - a crypto (also labeled at times as the " Polkadot of China ") that aims to solve both the scalability and cross-chain communication (just as Polkadot does) challenge by introducing the concept of " parallel sidechains ". AELF goes one step further by trying to solve the scalability issue as well. I know - this all sounds a bit like blattery & technical Chinese for you probably, well it is also a Chinese coin :D Scalability is one of the major problems preventing blockchain technology in general from achieving any trend of mainstream adoption. E.g. Ethereum still has a quite limited 15 transactions per second (TPS). This is an order of magnitude far too slow for any real mainstream use. Ethereum will take some time in solving that scalability issue, but it is working on it by preparing a move from the "POW" (proof of work) protocol to a proof of stake ("POS") protocol . A good example of the latter is NEO, with a max theoretical transaction processing speed of 10.000 TPS (!). (Fun anecdote: the crypto kitties hype practically crippled the ETH performance for some time, even though it wasn't even such a big fad). So... scalability is crucial to blockchain tech survival, and the race towards providing the best solution (s) is on the table. AELF is in this race. And...it did not even go to the "ICO" stage, because it was completely sold out at the "VC" (Venture Capital) phase (investors were some of the largest "VC" players in Asia) :-) So what more is there to say about this possible "mooner": --> It will release a main net by Q2 2018 (according to its planning, and which is very soon compared to other players) --> It has some serious "VC" backing AND is trying to solve the most crucial challenges to blockchain technology , and seems to be doing a pretty promising job at it so far --> Its market cap currently stands at $150M . If it were to reach the same size as some of the more known players, it could easily double, triple, quadruple, and go to the moon. -------- Today's Technical chart situation: --> We are looking at a golden cross in the MACD, an oversold RSI, and a downtrend that is about to be broken. Let's get some green volume behind that and see if the time is already now! --> Strong support on the light green horizontal line --> Could even be a cup & handle in the making -------- Conclusion: --> This coin was already interesting back in January before the sell-off. Now, after a decent correction that cut the coin's price back from around over $2,5 to about $0.58 today, it is even more interesting to have a look at. The upward potential is considerable. --> China is rather restrictive lately on "ICO"s and stuff, making this investment maybe somewhat less interesting or more risky --> We are still looking at an overall crypto bearish sentiment, so don't expect to make a quick buck on this. On the other hand, if you are patient, it can make sense to buy a small position in this one, simply because of its risk/reward ratio. Be patient for a couple of months - maybe even a year, and the odds are in favour of a pump on this one. Definitely do your own research, I am merely pointing out that some coins out there might be interesting in putting a small position. Huge potential, but risk alike. --> May I ask you, to like this post, if i) you liked it of course; ii) found some value in it; iii') would like to get more of this! All the best!
E
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
7
NEO and the downtrend – when will it end?!As I posted previously , I noticed a rising wedge (bearish) in NEO’s price pattern (also see “1”). Previous post graph: In the meanwhile, that pattern has held true, first resulting in a sideways trading range (see the rectangle in “2”). Support (“3”) was broken in early March, prolonging the downtrend started in February. We are still in that downward trend channel (see “4”). When will it end? Well… I guess we all noticed the turmoil in Bitcoin’s chart, especially yesterday, bottoming again around $8K. For the moment, it’s best to wait this one out, as long as NEO’s in the downtrend, best to stay away or HODL. The fundamentals remain good, but never argue with the trend. Wait for a trend reversal + confirmation and then buy back in / buy more / simply enjoy the ride back up. In the meantime, do notice that we have a nice bullish cross in the making in 7 and we have an oversold RSI in 8. Also note that they are both still trending downward. But at least we are heading in the right direction. For illustrative purposes, also check the last bullish cross in 5, and the bearish cross in 6. I highlighted the Fibonacci levels, and as you can see, the previous support in 3 coincides with the 38,2% level. We are now trading between the 50% and the 61,8%. Don’t let that negative price action get you down! PS1: please like this post if you like it :p PS2: this is not investment / speculation / gambling advice, DYOR :-) PS3: always great to have you following on twitter for the latest stuff and fundamental analysis! All the best
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
2
RLCBTC - Break-out moment of truth (>+100% potential)On @Alexander_AG 's request, quick post about RLCBTC: --> Classic triangle formation. Up or out. Bulls are in favour here. We are in a downward trend channel, close to be broken. --> Bullish cross in the MACD --> You can see what happened at previous bullish crosses (very positive signals) and at death crosses. --> Bullish "SMI" typically a little bit before the break-out. --> Note that this is a stock with considerable pumping & dumping, likely due to the low market cap (see the outliers, there are a lot :-) ) -->CCI oversold, trend upward (bullish) --> Divergence in Cumulative volume index versus price (bullish here) Seems like a trade with the bulls in favour of your odds. Definitely 100%+ potential if break-out upwards, given history of this crypto. Trade wisely, use stop losses if necessary. Feel free to follow on twitter (see bio) DYOR – this is not investment advice :-)
R
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
2
XLM - To go or not to go for a trend reversal?XLM has great fundamentals, but just as with the overall crypto market, price has been in a downward spiral since beginning of January. In this post, I want to have a look at the overall picture, and identify some support and break-out levels / signals, looking at the three charts: 1) versus Bitcoin, 2) ETH, and 3) USD. 1. The XLMUSD graph: 1) The CCI is curving upward again (see area under the chart), if you look at the previous times that this happened, we also saw a considerable increase in the chart. 2) MACD is trying to get that bullish cross going for it. We want to see it curve upward as well to get us some momentum. 3) Volume is low as f***. We also need it to spike in the green. 4) Looking at the overall chart, we see two yellow resistances, of which the first one resulted in a downward trend channel between the two yellow lines. We are now breaking out of that channel, and thereby also of the triangle with basis the 38,2% Fibonacci retracement line. We are seeing a green candle there. But this cannot yet be considered a real triangle break-out, given that we lack volume etc. --> Conclusion: still lacking some momentum here, but at least we have a strong support at the Fibonacci 38,2%, an upward bending CCI, and a first green candle trying to break through that negative trend channel. 2. The XLMETH graph: 1) CCI curving upward as well. 2) MACD struggling with that bullish cross as well. 3) Low green volume. 4) Strong support levels as well, see the two white horizontal lines. Note that the highest one of the two is now acting as a resistance + we have a break-out of the triangle formation there, albeit low volume and we still have to break through that white horizontal resistance. 5) We have a Heikin Ashi reversal candle (a doji) just before that last green candle, in theory this is typical for a trend reversal. Support at 0,00035712ETH. Resistance at 0,00041922; 0,00046830. 3. The XLMBTC graph: 1) CCI trending upward. 2) MACD heading right into that golden cross, but still in downward momentum. 3) Again, incredibly low volume. 4) We’ve been in a downtrend against that yellow resistance line, quite clearly. No room to get through until now: a first nice green candle there, with a high against the next Fibonacci level (61,8%; 3259 satoshi) as current resistance level. Support at +-2872 satoshi. 5) Also have a look at how nicely the Fibonacci speed resistance lines (the white fan) shows our support and resistance channels . For example: we hit the 25% line at the bottom in the previous candle. Other remarks: --> Note that in each graph, we are at the very low end of the Bollinger bands . --> Chaikin Money Flow indicator is shown in the main graph of this post, and could be applied to verify accumulation momentum. This is turning positive now. You should typically place bullish/bearish indicator threshold here but that would overcomplicate things. It’s just good to see it curving up a bit. Conclusion: While this could be a bottom with relatively strong support levels and a first bump upward in the right direction, we are still lacking volume – even though we already hit some a first green candle or so breaking the downward trend channels. Hence, we are still not in the clear. So keep an eye out on volume and momentum strengthening – it’s what we need! Note: this post’s intention is mostly to give you a framework on how to evaluate further price movement of XLM. As such its intention is informative, and definitely not to be considered as investment advice.
X
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
4
ICX diving right into the 2nd part of a cup&handle? (+500% pot.)In my previous post I highlighted the downtrend that ICX is currently in, and how there is no clear indication of reversal yet. It actually even broke the lower white triangle support and is now trying to get back in. It could be a coincidence, it could be faith. But because of breaking that triangle for a moment there, a nice fitting cup & handle pattern might well be in the making. We are seeing slow and steady enough price movement so far, to not be speaking about a V-pattern, but something that could become a U-pattern as is typical for the cup. Moreover, we see that volume has been on the decline towards where we are now. We can probably go a couple of days before we finish that bottom in ICX. And if this scenario would hold true (remember, it is just one scenario), we could be in for a nice price bump. To fully fill up this picture, have a look at the "CVI" (Cumulative Volume Index), it is quite typical that this index does the opposite of price, when it is preceding a trend reversal. Here we see downward price movement, and upward "CVI". This could ultimately result in a bullish break-out. Moreover, as you can see, the white triangle resistance is not that far anymore to break out. And we know what happens if we break out there. Moreover, if we look at the MACD, we see a golden cross that has been in the making for quite some time now, it came soooo slowly, but I think it might be there: look at the light bluish dot on the 12th or March (today). Seems like an upward curve, albeit very very gently ;-) Also, RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in the heavily oversold area now,: Conclusion: So... indicators are starting to point more and more in the direction of the bulls: bullish MACD, bullish RSI, divergence in "CVI" and price. And we might have a cup & handle on our plates, and we are close to the end of the triangle formation. (Purple target line on the right upper corner is my current cup & handle target - a bit more than 500% upward potential) Does this mean we are in the clear? No. We still do need the break-out confirmation and that goes hand in hand with a take-up in Volume, getting back in and then breaking the triangle and moving upwards on that steep upward second half of the cup! Many things could go wrong on that journey. Risks: we can fall through to the downside, directly crushing our C&H figure. Luckily, we should be standing on the sidelines now - waiting for a confirmation of this - just a - scenario. Best of luck.
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
5
Bitcoin - Are the bulls sneaking back in or?What is Bitcoin telling us today?! If you had a look at my previous post on " Recognising trend reversals in Bitcoin ", you would have seen this one coming from a mile away! We are already up around 15% in the meanwhile! PS: in my post following the one just mentioned, I was saying that it wouldn't get much more exciting than that moment: make or break! It was break, unfortunately - resistance was tested but we all know what happens if that fails - big price retracement. So let's start heading for another test of that resistance, whadda ya say? First off - again my side note on Heikin Ashi candles: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sidenote on Heikin Ashi (feel free to skip this) The difference lies in how candle sticks are calculated: Close = (open + high + low + close) / 4 High = maximum of high, open, or close (whichever is highest) Low = minimum of low, open, or close (whichever is lowest) Open = (open of previous bar + close of previous bar) / 2 FYI: A doji candle is a commonly found pattern in a candle stick chart, characterised by being small in length - meaning a small trading range - and with an open - and close price that are virtually equal. FYI2: A spinning top is another Japanese candle stick pattern with a short body found in the middle of two long wicks. FYI3: Heikin Ashi candles can be found in Trading view under the candle stick section and by clicking the 4rd option; these work somewhat differently than regular candle sticks. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --> So… let's look at the chart today: we had ourselves another Heikin Ashi spinning top in "4", followed by a first green candle, which is generally typical for a trend reversal (in this case: bullish). --> We also see the Stochastic Momentum Index (“SMI”) hitting a bullish cross at/under the green buy signal zone. That means we are going to see some more upward price movement – and it is already evident in what Bitcoin is doing right now (first nice green candle and upward movement). --> If we look at MACD, we don’t have a clear buy/sell cross yet, but it looks like the blue line is going to cross over the red one, which would be bullish. --> RSI curving upward again --> CCI as well, right from the oversold area As a side note: if we look at the 4-hourly chart, we are seeing a little bit of the opposite, likely a downward bump before we can head a little higher. Downward price pressure isn't gone yet! (look at the CCI and the "SMI"), they are not exactly happily welcoming us (look out for the dojis!) - btw, as you can see, there was also a beautiful doji on the green Fibonacci support line, just before the upward 4-hourly movement started again ;-) )
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
(!) WARNINGS for AAPL holders: strong bearish signals!I’m writing this message as a considerable warning to all AAPL holders. I am a long term investor myself, buying most of my position at the correction leg around $55 as shown in the graph (at point '2") at the first highlighted correction in 2013. I actually wrote a similar post on January 29th, but because it contained some external links, Tradingview blocked the post. You can nevertheless still see the graph I made back then: I found this chart compelling enough to repost it, albeit with a nice update ;) I took some profit back then in February, at around $180, so really at the top. Subsequently, a drop occurred to 150ish. Today, price is back up to the $180 level. But the main story I had back in February still holds true. Even though I'm relatively bearish now, I am still holding a small position just out of principle: I see myself as a long term holder of AAPL. Sidenote: I noticed similar red flags on the leading European index DAX30 , and the S&P500 . DAX30 -------- Now, the bearish-oriented title doesn’t promise much upside for AAPL , & when I look at the longer term graph of AAPL, I get the creeps and shivers. Practically a multitude of indicators & other information on the chart show us flickering red lights all over the place . Here we go: (1): AAPL has been in a long term upward trend channel since 2009 more or less, it has hit upper resistance of the trend channel twice before, and each time it fell right back to the trend channel support. You can see that in "1" and in "3". We are now again touching the upper resistance line in "5", a small breakthrough took place but couldn’t hold, sending the price right back to the $150 area. Nevertheless, the overall momentum in the market remains positive and Apple got a boost to get back to today's $182. That is out of the trend channel, and even beyond resistance. But Apple is already the largest stock on the planet, and no way that it can go vertical like our friend Bitcoin. We can theoretically expect the price to fall back to the lower support of the trend channel around "6"! That would imply a price level of around $140 (-23%) (2) If we have a look at the section just below the graph, The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), theory tells us that if the blue and red line cross each other above zero and the red line comes above the blue line, that we have a bearish reversal. Just have a look at the graph and you can see this happening in 2007-ish, just before 2013, just before 2016, and, well, right now (almost). —> Vice versa, we can see a “bullish” (if not “golden”) cross when the blue line crosses the red line and blue comes on top. This is also clearly visible in the MACD section. (3) The lower section shown here is the RSI or relative strength index. To keep things brief: this indicator can typically be relied upon to confirm a bearish or bullish stance. This holds true quite visibly for AAPL & we are seeing a confirmation of the downward signal in the MACD quite clearly before each pullback. Conclusion: I am a long term holder of AAPL but recently took some profit around $180. Why? Because the technical picture points to a major pending bearish reversal. Long term trend channel since 2009 is acting as a major resistance, MACD is almost showing a death cross, & RSI confirms that bearish stance.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
2
The TRUE buy & sell moments for Vechain (+ the next BUY moment!)In this post I want to zoom out a bit on the Vechain graph, look at the previous incredible bull run, the subsequent correction, &.. the next bull run! I will be writing about several indicators beneath the chart – highlighting them a bit first – & then fully applying them to the chart – so stay with me: --> The indicator just beneath the graph is the quite common MACD. I highlighted the bullish golden crosses (crossing beneath zero where blue line comes on top) & the bearish death cross (where they do the exact opposite above the zero line). --> The "SMI" or Stochastic Momentum Index , which typically talks about a “buy” if we enter the green zone, & a “sell” if we enter the red zone (+ a similar crossing of the two lines as with MACD). --> Moreover, I drew the horizontal Fibonacci retracement levels (support and resistance areas), & the Fibonacci speed resistance fans throughout which price moves along (also support & resistance areas) What we are seeing in this first graph is where the buy signals were for the 'SMI', i.e. When that oscillator hits the green buy zone (it should actually really dive into it). But even then, 13/12 could be considered a buy opportunity, especially as it went together with a bullish cross in the MACD. This provides us our first entry point in Vechain. We then see two red lights in the 'SMI', but momentum is still intact in the MACD & in the overall chart. So we did not have to sell here. However, if we look at the third large vertical in red, you can see that this one coincided with a bear cross in the 'SMI' ànd a death cross in the MACD: big selling time! Furthermore, if we check our chart today, we see that we have severely entered the green buy zone, where the two lines are practically crossing, but not upward yet. Nevertheless, this provides us an almost great buy signal – either now, or when the curve upward takes place. If we combine that with a pending bullish cross in the MACD, we have ourselves a new BIG BUY moment! What else is there? Well, if we take RSI (relative strength index, which has to be above 70 to talk about overbought, & beneath 30 for oversold), & combine this with the 'SMI', we see a similar story. RSI started to curve upward and give vechain a bullish momentum around or before 13/12 or near the buy signal in the 'SMI'. Furthermore, there was no real sign yet of negative momentum in the first red crosses in the 'SMI', BUT the third cross was accompanied by a reversal in the RSI trend from a severely overbought level to all the way down the drain. And...Conclusion: that is where we are today: looking at a severely oversold level in the RSI, accompanied by an almost bullish cross in the MACD, and an 'SMI' going for us as well. And as a last one: the interplay of 'SMI' and Chande Momentum Oscillator. As you can see, the 'SMI' gives us relatively clear buy and sell signals on extremes. The 'CMO' is useful in determining the overall trend and strength, and in combination can also give us better pointers as to whether we should or shouldn’t get out and whether we are still in a downtrend or not. Have a look for yourself: Conclusion: Vechain is a fundamentally super-sound investment candidate (partnership with BMW, etc. - just check my website for the analysis!), & in this post we zoomed out on the graph to verify the next entry point. We are not there YET and might even experience some additional downward pressure first, but we are very close to a major trend reversal and a next bull run comparable to the first one we saw. Vechain is young, has potential, and is just about to get started. Note: this is not to be considered investment advice - DYOR.
VLong
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
9
(!) Bitcoin – It doesn’t get any more exciting than this!In one of my previous posts “ Recognising trend reversals in Bitcoin ” , I showed you how you could call the trend reversals in Bitcoin as soon as they occurred. This by relying on Heikin Ashi candle trading, which is a slightly different way of charting than regular candles. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sidenote on Heikin Ashi (feel free to skip this) The difference lies in how candle sticks are calculated: Close = (open + high + low + close) / 4 High = maximum of high, open, or close (whichever is highest) Low = minimum of low, open, or close (whichever is lowest) Open = (open of previous bar + close of previous bar) / 2 FYI: A doji candle is a commonly found pattern in a candle stick chart, characterised by being small in length - meaning a small trading range - and with an open - and close price that are virtually equal. FYI2: A spinning top is another Japanese candle stick pattern with a short body found in the middle of two long wicks. FYI3: Heikin Ashi candles can be found in Trading view under the candle stick section and by clicking the 4rd option; these work somewhat differently than regular candle sticks. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I showed many examples in the Bitcoin graph, so that you can apply them yourself. In that previous post , I showed you guys that there was a negative trend reversal in 5 on the chart back then ("2") in the new chart - see below: Graph today: Before reaching that point, I also showed how you could have called the bottom, in this post . Anyway, your mind is probably racing now with that one single question - OK, BUT WHAT THE HECK IS HAPPENING NOW?! Well, we have been testing this bright green resistance line a couple of times now. And this time - let's call it the third time - we want that third time to be the charm. We are bursting into the position where the big downward trendline in yellow, and the bright green resistance are crossing, and all the Heikin Ashi candles are still tell us that we can keep going. We are seeing NO DOJI WHATSOEVER, for now. AND, if we have a break-out, we are also crushing that inverse head & shoulders neckline resistance. That would be a major bullish sign - with a target at $15,6K more or less. We have RSI and MACD going in our favour. Note that we are not in the clear YET, we need a break-through. Otherwise we can fall back to $10,5K or even lower. So keep your eyes open on that breach and on any dojis coming to ruin the party. Also, volume is trending a bit downward, we need volume! PS: if we zoom in on the chart to the 1-hourly, then we see, even on that level, that the chart is still making green candles towards that zone of truth. It will be very exciting to see how this pans out. Please do not consider this as any kind of formal investment advice - DYOR and best of luck in your trades and investments. Feel free to follow on Twitter for the freshest updates.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
8
OMG! - Ride that upward trend channel for OmisegoA relatively straightforward piece on request of a reader/follower. OMG has switched from one upward trend channel to another, like missing a step on a ladder but still going to the attic. You can also compare it a little bit to the typical pitchfork analysis and we are now in the lower end of that upward pitchfork. - Given that volume is rather low , I expect this trend channel 2 to hold and hence that we will not move to the previous trend channel 1. - Moreover, we are testing the 38,2 Fibonacci level with current price and this is also more or less the upper resistance of this channel. If we can’t break it, which is the most likely scenario, we will retrace back a little, but I don’t think it will go back more than the lower resistance line of this channel. - We are seeing some overboughtness in the CCI, and have just made a bullish cross in the MACD. I believe the upward momentum remains intact but it should not get ahead of itself, so do expect some red candles too in this channel. And the trend is your friend, so no need to get out of your position here unless something dramatically changes. - Now: if we look at the 2h chart, we see a death cross in the MACD, negative pull in the CCI and the candles bending as well, so we can expect downward movement right now in the very short term. - If we look at the 4-hourly, it is still a bit in the making. Conclusion: expect some up and downs in this trend channel, but the trend remains your friend for the moment – nothing more than that! Resistance levels & targets are shown in the chart: - Upper trend line of the current channel - 38,2% Fibonacci at 195877 - 50% Fibonacci at 221670 Support: - Lower trend line of the current channel - The yellow line at 181405 - Red Fibonacci support
O
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
2
(!) DAX – The next recession!? + attention points!Earlier this week I already posted on the S&P 500 - “A word of warning”. Today is no different. Although, the DAX shows a maybe even worse picture. And I am actually absolute not a "perma-bear"... 1) If you look at the red resistance line, drawn from the 2003 top through the 2007 market top & from there on you see that the 2015 top could have been called at the moment the chart hit that red line again. Guess where we are today? We are touching that red line again, and believe me – we will need a LOT of momentum if we ever want to breach that zone. And EVEN if we would break it, it would be a very momentary thing. 2) As if that isn’t even the worst part, if we ZOOM IN on the graph and just look at where we are now, we see more omens. We actually see a first left shoulder, a very clear head – by the book – and we are likely starting to form a right shoulder RIGHT now. The neckline can be seen as the white horizontal support line just beneath. Likely scenario here is that we will be forming a second shoulder (so some upward movement first) before we fall through that neckline & really tumble down to any of the next support levels – bloody. An alternative is that we already break the support line now – which would be a tad early, but this would more or less result in a same scenario. This downward break-out could recover however to keep forming the shoulder. 3) & if THAT wasn’t enough, guess what we are seeing if we look right at the top white horizontal line). We see a DOUBLE TOP, which is also incredibly bearish – by the book. 4) Looking at the yellow trend channel: in 2015, we got ahead of ourselves and jumped out of the channel, bumping into the red SUPERRESISTANCE line and logically fell right back to the yellow support line (also quite common in charts & channels). It even got that bad that we broke through the yellow support line, right into the 50% Fibonacci, & from there on, we formed a new temporary trend channel depicted by the white upward trend channel. But it didn't take long to get back into that yellow long term trend channel. 5) We were very optimistic again, going for a big burst against the yellow resistance line, & even touched the red SUPERRESISTANCE AGAIN. This obviously failed & we fell right back to the yellow support zone (sounds familiar?). 6) So what? What will happen next? Note that I am certainly not claiming that I can in any way predict the future. I can however make informed decisions based on risk reward assessments & evaluating probabilistic scenarios. In this case, you don’t need to be a math genius to figure it out: we are trading at the very top of a long term trend channel, we have practically no more logical room to keep moving upwards. Maybe there is still a short term 10% gain in the pipeline, but we have a lot going against us fundamentally as well (rising interest rates, tightening QE, etc.). Just looking at the chart should tell you an obvious story: there is a LOT OF RISK here now. Are you willing to take that risk? 7) For info on support levels / targets, please refer to the first comment here below (as the text box is full :-) ) 8) Timing RS: see first update Conclusion I am not here to cast Nostradamic predictions, but I do want to point out that we are currently trading near a market top and that there is not much upward potential left in theory. There is however, a big cliff lurking around the corner, and the slightest bearish signal in the market might start setting of a lot of automated trading algos that could send the market plummeting in an instant. Have a look for yourself, and please make a reflection on how you want to take advantage of this piece of information. DYOR - Not intended as investment advice!
XETR:DAX
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
7
ICX – When will the bulls be back + short term trade opportunity1) ICX has been in a beautiful upward trend channel ever since its listing on Binance on December 19th 2017. 2) When it broke support of that channel beginning of February, it plummeted in a very nasty downward channel from an ATH at 9234 sat to 4577, practically half. 3) Ever since, it’s been in a downward triangle formation where price hits the resistance line each time – and moving around Fibonacci retracement levels in between. 4) We are now trading at 3483 sat, and have hit the light blue 78,6% Fibonacci retracement level (note that the full 78,6% retracement level still shows more downward price potential all the way down to 2409 sat. 5) But basically, for the moment, we are trading near the triangle support ànd the Fibonacci 78,6% retracement. These are still strong support levels for the time being. 6) If we look at CCI , we see clear sell and buy signals (red/green verticals) that align with the up-and downward swings since beginning of February. We are now reaching a new “buy” signal there. 7) Looking at MACD , a similar story unfolds, and again: we are reaching a “buy” signal there. 8) I believe the next move will therefore be to i) 3862 sat (First Fibonacci retracement level), and that there is some more room to ii) 4227ish or so. That is not an incredibly great return potential, but still goes from 10 to 30% in the short term. 9) After that, it will likely need one more pullback before really testing the triangle. 10) In the meantime, one can keep a close eye on the price movement from the sideline and wait for a nice (hopefully upward) break-out of this triangle. Feel free to comment with some potential upward catalysts you deem relevant for the upcoming price movement! PS: this is no investment / speculation / trading advice – just my 5 cents!
Long
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
1
Vechain – 3 days before the big dayLet's have a look at this crazy graph, in our great expectation of Monday 26/02 - rebranding day! In my previous posts I called the first buy and sell moments in 1 and 2 respectively. Then we got to the end of the white triangle formation with all indicators going for it, Vechain broke out. It moved right up to breaking out of triangle number 2. (I made the post there of " Strong support for Vechain Thor" . And it is now very close to its rebranding moment on 26/02 (Monday). This is a Heikin Ashi chart. And as you can see in the last three candles, the dojis and spinning top tell us that there is lots of indecisiveness now regarding where price should go next . This is actually a bullish sign in this case, because the entire crypto market is shaking on its foundations again the last couple of days, with Bitcoin retracing from its almost uber-bull break-out, for which we’ll just have to keep waiting a little longer. So, the market goes down, and Vechain is consolidating at this new price level with no clear direction yet. If we look at the stochastics , we see a bullish cross in the MACD and all the bullish momentum that still has to come from there. The RSI is showing slight upward momentum. Volume is halting a bit… VEN rebranding day shall have to tell us more on the next price movements. But given that the rumours go that they might perhaps announce a BMW partnership together with their rebranding, maybe this time the old adage of "buy the rumour sell the news” might maybe be “buy the rumour and buy even more on the news” - that is: if Vechain indeed would play it clever on rebranding day. Notice that Vechain is also actually trading in a shorter term upward trend channel. Support levels are at - 52922 sat, and 51522 sat - Next support at 45110 sat, and 42278 sat Resistance at - 58409sat - 63896 sat Good luck and have a look at my website where I also explain the fundamental story behind this gem (7 reasons why vechain will soon be one of the crypto top 5) ;-) This is not investment advice, DYOR
VLong
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
6
(!) Bitcoin 2x Inverse Head & Shoulders ((1)55% profit potent.)People have been wish-ful-thinkingly seeing a very early inverse H&S on Bitcoin for some time now, but that very inverse head & shoulders really seems to be forming that last shoulder. Given the difference between the left shoulder and the head being around $4K, and the neckline around $11,5K – this would give us a target of $15,5K for this inverse H&S. Note that if you want to trade this inverse H&S and want to do it by the book, you wait until break-out confirmation above neckline 1. Alternative entry points are when price bounces back after that initial break-out, but those are more complex and require more patience. Volume might also be massive when such a break-out occurs, so who knows BTC doesn’t even go for a retesting of that neckline (but I think it will). So that’s our inverse head & shoulder number 1 – with target at around $15,5K which also coincides with the 23,6% Fibonacci retracement level. The potential party isn’t over yet however – if you look at the chart, you will see a second left shoulder, the head, and if price would be bouncing around somewhat between neckline 1 and target 1, we have a right shoulder as well. In that case, we’re not speaking about 55% profit potential anymore, but $23-24K for Bitcoin or more than double the price now. We would have to wait to beyond May however for that to occur. But who knows, maybe mid-March we’re already at $15K, and you’d probably be glad already ;) So, what do you think?! ;-)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
7
ADA / Cardano: WHEN will the downtrend end?!Hi guys, A friend asked me to have a glance at Cardano… He asked “ should I buy this stuff? ” I am just going to list the things I notice in the chart, and things you should be attentive to: 1) There have already been two triangle formations with crucial Fibonacci supports as a triangle basis. Both of them failed in breaking the triangle upward, followed by a further downward move in price. 2) We don’t have many longer term Fibonacci supports left as you can seee – only the blue one at 2323 sat. But, we also have a shorter term support line at 3138 sat, which we just tested for a first time just now on the daily. 3) We are closing in on the end of this third triangle . The question will be once more: “up” or “out” ? With the knowledge that as for now, the bearish momentum is still intact (and remember: don’t bet against the trend or in the cheesy way that TA-ers always say “the trend is your friend”!) 4) Not everything is blood on the chart (well…unless if you have been HODL-ing this one since the top), but: MACD is curling - as slowly as possible though – to a bullish cross . That will be good news someday soon. Moreover, RSI is now in the heavily oversold area! So…we are looking for that bullish cross giving us a first buy signal. We want that to be confirmed by an upward curl in the RSI (let’s get that momentum back up!) 5) We are looking even more at the candle sticks . They are as red as can be for now. Given that this is a Heikin Ashi chart ( see my previous posts on TV for more explanation ), we want to see a doji or spinning top candle first AND a break-out confirmation on that candle (i.e. We want to see some green candles follow the doji / spinning top candle to the extent that the resistance of previous candle sticks gets broken. See example “X” and “Y" in the chart. 6) We want volume! Green volume! We have none for the moment. Only ugly red little bars. Let’s replace those. Conclusion: - We are entering a new zone of truth: up or out of this triangle formation. - Bearish sentiment is still intact for the moment. We are looking for signs of reversal. - Signs of reversal already closing in : RSI is heavily oversold + almost a bullish MACD cross on the daily - Signs of reversal we are still looking for : a doji candle signaling trend reversal, FOLLOWED BY green candle sticks that break the resistance formed by previous red candles + (more simply) break-out of that ugly downward trend channel (as represented by the upper white triangle resistance line). - Lots of green Volume!! - NOTE: this is purely the technical story. If you have important info on the fundamentals that might help us out in a trend reversal (e.g. Partnership announcements, rebranding, etc.) let my friend know in the comments! ;) - No need to start a trade on this one yet. At least not when looking at the daily picture. Be patient, prudent, and with your eyes open :-) (and the short answer - just to bully you I put it in the end - is: stay away for now, it is still too early to make a (purely technically motivated) buy decision). PS: this is by no means intended as formal investment / speculation / gambling advice
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
5
BTC – An exercise in recognizing trend reversals in BitcoinHi guys, welcome back for the big crypto show – today’s edition. In this post, I want to focus a bit more on how you can be attentive to potential trend reversals , via a method I’ve been using in some of my previous posts: the Heikin Ashi candle sticks, and more specifically looking at the Doji / Spinning top indicators. FYI: A doji candle is a commonly found pattern in a candle stick chart, characterised by being small in length - meaning a small trading range - and with an open - and close price that are virtually equal. FYI2: A spinning top is another Japanese candle stick pattern with a short body found in the middle of two long wicks. FYI3: Heikin Ashi candles can be found in Trading view under the candle stick section and by clicking the 4rd option; these work somewhat differently than regular candle sticks. -------- A previous post that is another good example of this is the one on ADX or the one on Cardano . First off, always best to start by drawing your overall trend lines, as well as your Fibonacci retracement levels. This way, you will also likely notice that these doji candles have a tendency to occur near resistance and support areas . This is quite logical, as we typically find a support somewhere so that we can lift off again from that point. However, even though likely straightforward now I mentioned it, it is a reflection that is not made quite often. For example, have a look at “1” on November 13th, near the red support line, we see a red spinning top popping up, signalling a POTENTIAL trend reversal . Two candle sticks later, the trend reversal is confirmed by a break-out of a previous resistance level (cf. Candle stick “C” breaking through the light blue horizontal resistance line). Now, the somewhat tricky thing here is that these dojis and spinning tops can generally mean two things: i) a pending trend reversal; ii) pure indecisiveness on where price should go next. To illustrate this, I highlighted some dojis that tell us there is a trend reversal (and remember that confirming a reversal via a break-out is crucial in that regard), and I highlighted some that merely show temporary indecisiveness before price continues in a given direction. Numbers 2 & 4 are clear examples of trend reversal indicators near a resistance (in case of number 2) or support (in case of number 4, where the preceding candle actually touched the longer term support line). Number 3 is a good example of sheer indecisiveness & nothing more. Now the big question is of course: what’s happening in number 5!?!?!?! We have just broken the red line as resistance & are likely going to have it act as a support in the short term. Moreover, the spinning top actually formed right on the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, which also acts as support. If you paid close attention to what I said here above, you know that dojis either will mean a trend reversal, and then we will have to wait for a break-out confirmation (and if that happens, best to get out in time), otherwise, it might simply be short term indecisiveness before continuing the move. Given the recent strong upward move of Bitcoin, the latter is definitely not an option to be left aside. Finally, if we look at RSI: the upward momentum got curved down a little bit. MACD on the contrary is still moving upward. As such, we are getting mixed signals, on the daily chart at least ;) Note that this post is not intended as a full price analysis of Bitcoin. It mostly aims to provide you an additional tool to apply in the future! Moreover, it is by no means intended as formal investment advice.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
1