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Winter

Really as Simple as it seems- Very simple case for NG bulls on a long (2-5 year) basis. Macro trend simplified with nothing more than trendlines - Shorter term bear play will be described in another post - NG appears to be making a Jesse Livermore accumulation megaphone pattern as it did in the 90s/2000s 1) red long term downtrend line broken to the upside and retested beautifully. 2) weekly chart shows higher highs and higher lows beginning to develop on a longer time frame after the nasty drop from 2021 highs to lows which bottomed in the 2$ vicinity. 3) Shorter term black trendline still providing resistance upon the 3rd test. Confirmation of a breakout here is yet to be seen (this was where the short play revolves around) 4) major resistance around the upper red horizontal line at roughly 3.19. Lesser resistance just below red horizontal line. Conclusion: NG has been and continues to be extremely cheap historically. As NG resolves these resistance zones it appears a 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 megaphone pattern will generate as NG eventually reaches the 12-14$ area within the next few years. Natural Gas expected to tag lower trendline and upper trendline of megaphone pattern accordingly with seasonality and resistance levels along the way. Volatility is expected as the cylinder widens and price action becomes more erratic, though long term, the trend is bullish, but the Widowmaker is not for the faint of heart. Scaling in, and buying near lower trendline tags is likely most likely to increase probability of maximum profit.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Commodity_TA_Plus
The Winter Is Coming: Oil, the Essential Fuel for Staying Cozy While the immediate future of crude oil remains shrouded in uncertainty, the recent price correction could signal an imminent technical rebound. Moreover, the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere is poised to heighten demand for heating oil, potentially bolstering prices. This is not financial advice, merely my personal opinion. I am willing to accept the potential for financial loss stemming from this belief, which I consider to be well-founded. Boost the idea with your likes for more content.
TVC:USOILLong
by SabahEquityResearch
Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 . As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now. As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action. Natural gas storage Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March. The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020. While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years. These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high? Unseasonal weather One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating. Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states: “Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.” The EIA adds: “We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.” High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas… Price Seasonality Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January. Price Action On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance. On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility. To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by inspirante
2
Market Update - October 27th Bitcoin hits $35k amid more encouraging ETF news: BTC soared from ~$30k USD to ~$35k earlier in the week, before settling around $34k USD by Friday. Spurring the price action, news began circulating on Monday that BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, with the ticker IBTC, was listed with the DTCC, leading to speculation that the ETF was nearing approval. Bitcoin open interest on CME hits all-time highs: Open interest for bitcoin derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit 100,000 BTC (~$3.4 billion USD). The trend may reflect growing interest in bitcoin from institutional investors as the conversation around a coming spot bitcoin ETF continues to heat up. SEC directed to review Grayscale’s spot bitcoin ETF application: A US federal court issued a mandate directing the SEC to review Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin ETF. Grayscale submitted a registration statement to the SEC on October 19, stating its intention to list shares of its spot bitcoin ETF on the New York Stock Exchange Arca under the ticker GBTC. Q3 GDP beats estimates, and treasury yields continue to rise: Third-quarter US GDP showed robust growth of 4.9% on an annual basis, surpassing estimates of 4.7%. Treasury yields continued to rise, putting additional pressure on equities. Yields on the 10-year treasury surpassed 5% on Monday, hitting its highest level in over a decade, but has since dipped to the 4.8% range. 🤝Topic of the Week: Basic Trading Order Types ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
A simple sell strategy for Heating OilWith price and “commodity premiums” that we track showing signs of a structural shift, we think these represents potential tradeable set-up in the mid to long term as supply and demand finds some way to normalization after the pandemic & war shocks over the past 2 years. Hence, we think commodities will continue to be where the actions at. With winter just about over, we thought it would be perfect time to look at the ‘talk’ of pre-winter, Heating Oil. After a staggering 600% run-up from the depths of 2020 to the peak pre-winter last year, Heating Oil might just be on the opposite journey now. On a weekly timeframe, Heating oil has decisively broken the uptrend established since 2020 and now sits on the support level for the 2011-2014 period of 2.75. Zooming closer on the RSI, the current level proves to be a pivotal point for heating oil’s trend, as each time the RSI crosses below the 40-level, it is followed by an accelerated move lower. In fact, taking a short position every time the RSI crosses below the 40-level would have netted an average of 27%, if you manage to catch the bottom! Even if you can’t catch the bottom, following the strategy, where we build a short position in heating oil when RSI crosses below 40, and hold it until RSI crosses back above 40, would still make a respectable 18.3% average return. On a shorter timeframe, Heating Oil seems to be trading within a descending channel, with the trend pointing lower. Another thing we like to look at is the relationship/premium between Heating Oil and Crude Oil. However, as the two types of contracts are quoted differently, we have some work to do to rebase the prices into a comparable format. Given that Heating Oil is quoted in US Dollars and Cents per gallon, while Crude Oil is quoted as US Dollars and Cents per barrel, we can convert Heating Oil to be denominated in barrels. 1 barrel equals to roughly 42 gallons, therefore, we can simply multiply Heating Oil price per gallon by 42 to get its price per Barrel. Given Heating Oil is 2.7505 USD per gallon, this works out to be roughly 115.52 USD per barrel. This allows us to see the relationship between Heating Oil and Crude oil. The former is trading at a premium to latter. Over the past winter the Heating Oil premium reached it’s all time high, toping out close to 100 USD per barrel more than Crude Oil. With Spring now in sight, it appears a new season has dawned upon this premium, with the Heating Oil - Crude Oil premium now falling below the previous highs in 2011-2012. Should this continue, then we can expect the price gap between the 2 types of oil to close, with Heating Oil being the likely culprit to drive it lower. The general downward trend in current Heating Oil prices, falling Heating Oil premiums and historical RSI-based sell trigger, all point towards a potentially lower Heating Oil. We would consider setting up the trade in the following 2 ways to express our view: 1) Wait for the RSI to cross below 40 and sell, setting the take-profit based on the RSI crossing back above 40 again to close the position. Each 0.0001-point move in Heating Oil Futures Contract is $4.20 USD 2) Trade the spread between Heating Oil and Crude Oil by taking a short position in the CME Heating Oil Futures Contract and a long position in the CME Crude Oil Futures Contract. Given that 1 Heating Oil Contract is for 42,000 gallons, which is equivalent to 1000 barrels, we can Short 1 Heating Oil and Long 1 Crude Oil to form the spread, in order to match the position size of the contracts. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:HO1!Short
by inspirante
4
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!❄️ Happy New Year!⛄️ We know this past year has had its fair share of ups and downs - but good or bad, these experiences have shaped who we are today and who we will be in the future. May you find the perspective you seek in 2023. As a wise person once said, "Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain". This is the perfect time to turn over a new leaf and follow your dreams. You can do it! Your UnitedSignals☃️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnitedSignals
1
OIL prices WILL RISE during the winter!With this current WAR happening and EU not receiving enough gas. And russia partnering up with middle eastern countries not to sell to EU or USA. Taking all of this information into account, I believe that Oil prices will RISE as there are many protests around Europe because of high cost. Let's see where the world will go, but one thing for sure chaos is coming therefor crisis is coming meaning that OIL prices will rise since during the winter in Europe, GAS will be needed to heat millions of homes. Also European countries have calculated that they should be able to survive the winter with their GAS reserves but they didn't take in to count on how much electricity would the immigrants from Ukraine use. I am bullish on that the price of OIL will rise and everyone and their mother should invest! But not everyone will be able to, since people don't have enough money to even heat their homes.
TVC:USOILLong
by RobertOttoman
Doomsday.Here on the daily chart, we have a rather rare signal. A daily WAVE PM cross, with the CCI pointing bearish. Here is the previous instance, November 2018, where this signal fired. This resulted in a 50% drawdown. We'll know pretty quickly if this scenario is playing out, where if price can recover above the 1900s in the next few days price should hold as an easy opportunity to stop out. If not, expect freefall for the next several weeks. This is an incredibly reliable signal on the daily chart. It happens only one or two times a year and has resulted in a percentile move in the double digits every single time. We'll need a close beneath 17500 today for confirmation.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DadShark
3
ENEL (1W) Pottential reversal for Enel during winter ? Hello Folks, Seems like Energy Sector is attractive right now. Looking at many European companies (Producers and Electricity Suppliers) could reveal interesting bets for mid-term // or several months during Winter. ENEL is one of Such companies. Need to dig deeper into Fundamentals. BUT for now considering Technical Analysis of Chart. Seems like Stock is down 50% from last year top. A) If it Holds price around 4.5 and turn up. It could be last impulsive wave UP (Wave 5 of bigger TimeFrame). Which could last 6-12 months. = Back to Price around 9. Right now the stock can be Attractive with Forward Dividend at 7,71%. P/E at 16 is probably too expensive (Compared to CEZ at 11.7, which should be way better company) B) If it drops below, it means Overlaping of waves marked as 1 and 4. (Forbidden in Elliot Wave theory. So it would be completely different structure and its better to stay away. It could drop to the bottom of GREEN long-term channel at 3.5 or even deeper. For now I Will not enter position, but will dig deeper into fundamentals and certainly let you know very soon. Let me know if somebody follow this company or other European Energy companies ;)
MIL:ENEL
by Longevity_Contrarian
BTC - DustedThe Bit has sh_t. Crypto Winter sees its fourth snow drift pile up and bury the Tribe. At some point, the Con will be an EPIC Buy. That is very well below and many months away. Eron, Cathi, and Michael - the Triad of failures are "hopeful"... Yeah, we're not and after having projected the High between 69-75K, the Con was set to fail. The truly disturbing part, this still has another 89% to go... perhaps more. Hopefully, a solid RT to provide entry into the Sell again. ______________________________________________ Shake it up.
CME:BTC1!
by HK_L61
Bitcoin as I see itNow, I am not dubbed the Nostradamus of Bitcoin or Crypto. I have had some pretty farfetched ideas for short and long term ideas. However, I see a few different (Most likely wrong) possibilities for Bitcoin in the short - medium term: I have 2 different "Bullish" and 2 different "Bearish" scenarios to get wrong! Bullcase 1 (blue opaque line): This could be a very nice dead cat bounce like the 2020 March Crash, leading to a new ATH Bullcase 2 (green drawn line): This is similar to the first scenario, however this one i see taking a little more time. Macroeconomics play more into this play ie interest rate hikes not being as high as previously thought or crypto adoption. Bearcase 1 (black opaque line): a short term bearish continued drop to the lower orange line around $21k-$22k and few month hiatus of battling the $27k range. Fighting resistances along the way, but will take longer to reach a decent $50k zone Bearcase 2: (Red drawn line): A repeat of the "Crypto Winter" that happened in 2018 into 2019. Much like Bearcase 1, a drop to the $21k-$22k level and a slow upwards movement. This one I think could be more likely given the current Macroeconomics (I use this word only because I feel as though it makes me look smart). This will take longer, but gives a lot more buying opportunities for our long term goals! If you read through all of this, I appreciate it so much! I hope my rambling makes sense, and maybe one day this "crazy cat person" might get something right :)
by blewis08