The last oneFirst, this stock is a total disaster for every retail holder, including myself. Secondly, this stock is unpredictable since as it seems to my eyes VCs control the game and can do whatever they want... burn it to 0, sell it for $5,$10,$20 etc... or raise capital and dilute. Here are some points to consider though:
1. Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern target $59 +-$1 more on the pattern here ()
2. Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern target $59 +-$1 more on the pattern here (www.tradingview.com)
3. 0.236% Fib Retracement since gap down after wsb pump 2021 at $58.55
4. Russel Rebalancing prior to ex-CEO + founder removal at $58.50
5. Citron last tweet mentioning wish worth $50? (do not take into account this one but just for the sake of the conversation)
Some things in favor of an upward move:
1)FED pause = peak rates = expecting cuts heading into 2024 and beyond
2)Inflation for now is behind us and might be heading to deflation
3)Small caps momentum (wish will get inflows from funds following Russell3000)
4)10y% down = risk on
5)Oil down = more disposable income = increase discretionary spending
6)Heading into US elections, historically a positive year for markets
7)What about China's comeback into the 2024 year of the Dragon?
8)DXY down positively correlated to US stocks going up
Wish turnaround checklist
1)Bad Merchants cleared and quality improved ✓
2)NPS improved (flat rate shipping, faster shipping, lower refund rates, better quality products,more pick up points,better customer support)✓
3)Operational Excellence (fired 2/3, hiring lower cost employees in China) ✓
4)App improved ✓
5)New Website (pending...)
6)New merchant commission structure coming into 2024 ✓
$59 = $1357m valuation
Expected Sales 2024 = 200m... I think the bar here is very low but since they control Ad spending which is highly correlated with revenue the sales number is not that predictable ( i can't be in their head on what they are planning to do)
Cash on hand 445m as of Q3 and going to burn another 50-60m on Q4 so cash at the end of the year should be standing at 385m
2024 cash burn should be 40m less than the previous year due to layoffs so 10m/Q less. If sales number is 200 as projected meaning -30% than 2023 then i would expect total cash burn to be -30% as well = 25-35m / Q leaving wish with approximately 250m +-20 at the end of 2024. But those are all assumption in my head but the big picture says wish 2024 EoY cash to be standing above 200m! which means they will have to take a decision on what they are gonna do in 2025
1)sell it
2)raise money dilution
And something to consider about the Forest not the Tree! Temu success is a proof that wish got the idea right from the beginning but bad management execution failed this company! For me that means that wish business model = mobile low cost e-commerce targeting West shifting downward middle class + Rest of the world shifting upward class(formation of new middle class) is right BUT what can happen to this stock i do not know anymore. All i can do is wait...
Wishstock
The $WISH Turnaround StoryNASDAQ:WISH The Wish Turnaround Story
Technical Analysis: Triple Bottom
Fun Facts:
- Delivery speeds average 8-day y/y improvement in Q1’23
- Customer order cancellation Rate dropped 56% y/y in Q1’23
- Buyer conversion rate improved by 18% y/y in Q1’23
- Customer retention rate improved by ~10% y/y in Q1’23
Financials:
March 2023 Cash Balance: $379 Million
Free Cash Flow:
March 2021 ~$350 Million
March 2023 ~$90 Million
($260 Million Improvement)
Short Term Investments:
March 2021 $154 Million
March 2023 $256 Million
($102 Million Improvement)
Total Debts:
March 2021 $48 Million
March 2023 $18 Million
($30 Million Improvement)
Operating Expenses:
March 2021 $563 Million
March 2023 $110 Million
($453 Million improvement)
* Q3 Savings on Operating Expenses expected to be around $14-$23 Million on Annualized Basis based on 17% workforce reduction *
Current Enterprise Value:
March 2021 ~$306 Million (Priced for Bankruptcy)
$50 Million Dollar Share Repurchase Program
Be warned: This info isn't a recommendation for what you should personally do, so please don't take the data as investment advice. As with any trade, always look first, then dive.
1+1 = ?Are you all gone?
I am still here...
Summer 21 retail bought high because wish was going to the moon with 0 justification and stock +100% in 2 days with zack morris pump.
February 23 retail sold low because wish was a dead company due to earnings and stock went -50% in couple of days from the citron pump.
I am curious if smart money sold high and bought low...
This is either a scam and the company is going to ZERO or a trick and the company will be a hero!
Do your own research
Look First / Then Leap
WISH: FOLLOWER REQUEST / SQUEEZE??? / CONVERGENCE / LOTTO PLAYDESCRIPTION: In chart above I have included an analysis of TICKER SYMBOL WISH as per follower request. Despite it's short market history since IPO price action has seen plenty of volatility and has broken many fundamental supports and has fallen into PENNY STOCK TERRITORY. With that being said refer to FULL CHART LINK DOWN BELOW to see what I am talking about.
POINTS:
1. CURRENT DEVIATION is at 0.9.
2. Ceiling for current price action stand at 4 Points while new floor threshold stands at 0.4
3. DOWNTREND MOMENTUM has given way to a DESCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERN.
4. MA'S indicate a tightening of price action (MA LEVELS = 45, 100, 200).
5. MACD indicates POTENTIAL SQUEEZE UNDERWAY with little DEVIATION from MEDIAN.
6. RSI currently does in fact show signs of overbought pressure with current levels oat 64.97.
IMPORTANT: In order to exit PENNY STOCK TERRITORY price action must eventually rise above 4 points to once again be in congruence with previous ALL TIME HIGH.
SCENARIO #1: In a bullish scenario I would only consider a long position if price action is to break above 1.0 to the upside this would confirm current setup and can give way to a potential squeeze.
SCENARIO #2: In a bearish scenario I would consider a shorting position if price action falls anywhere below 0.4 and would not hold any actual stock at that point.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:WISH
Anyone else for $1?Who would have thought that? wish fighting to break 100ma at $1, oh boy I learned my lessons no doubt about that!
So the main question remains: has this stock survived or is it going to 0? is it a buyout? or it's the beginning of a new chapter? We should learn this in the next 12-18 months!
I am selling nada, zero,rien,0 below $5
Good luck to all, do your own due diligence and listen to nobody.
Look first / Then Leap
*Merry X-mas to everybody
How do you feel?If you check at least 3/5 on the below we might be in the right place.
1. Depressed
2. Tired
3. Stressed
4. Scared
5. Out of money to buy more
I do not know about you but I have been through all of the above over the last 12 months! I made tons of mistakes no doubt about that! BUT i wIll not make the biggest one, panic sell at the bottom or in the first rally!
Some things to consider when you try to draw the picture of the next 6-12months
1. Advertising Costs or User Acquisition Costs ⬇ + NPS ⬆ ( What's doing Meow Meow on the roof???)
2. Shipping Costs + Shipping time ⬇
3. West Disposable Income ⬇
Why is Peter Selling? well, for a buyout to take place at least >50% of shareholders must agree! Now retail holds 39% + the previous 10% of Peter before starting selling makes 49%! you understand how dangerous that was for the Funds that they wanted to take over right? Probably the price is already set! nobody else besides peter is selling here! Now have a look here:
Vijay's Contract
"Restricted Stock Units. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted
an award of Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) for that number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock equal to $12,000,000 divided by
the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your
Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share
+
"Stock Options. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an
option to purchase that number of shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock equal to $16,800,000 divided by the average closing
price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded
down to the nearest whole share (the “Option”)"
The average closing price prior to the Start Date meaning Dec 21 was around $3.2 giving to Vijay the option in case he would stay with the company to hold around 9m shares or 1.3%.
So Peter's 10% + Vijay 1.3% + Retail 39% or more at the time since many got liquidated gives us >50%, if one of the funds holding 3-4% could be on their side the acquisition would be even harder to take place. Imo this is an ordered acquisition and Retail will pay for it! What a beautiful game!
Based on 670m shares float here are the % based on (simplywallst.com data and fintle.io)
Holders >1%
1. Vanguard together with its passive funds holds 84,819,961 or 12.65%
2. Blackrock together with its passive funds holds 37,909,425 or 5.65% + iShares (owned by Blackrock) 20,564,283 or 3.069%
3. Formation8 Partners 42,192,476 or 6.29%
4. DST Global 38,301,392 or 5.71%
5. GGV Capital, LLC 25,707,499 or 3,83%
6. General Atlantic Llc 16,888,478 or 2.52%
7. Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 13,519,000 or 2.01% +5m call option + potential 0.74%
8. State Street Corp 13,349,046 or 1.99%
9. Geode Capital Management, Llc 8,442,463 or 1.26%
10. Comprehensive Financial Management LLC 8,406,736 or 1.25%
11. Renaissance Technologies Llc 8,264,800 or 1.23%
All of the above players hold together 47.45%! Peter already sold 3.63% and probably going for >5%, when we learn who bought in i think the price would not be where it is now!
From the 2021 Annual Report
"In addition, in July 2017, FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s announced that they would cease to allow most
newly public companies utilizing dual or multi-class capital structures to be included in their indices. Affected indices
include the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, which together make up the S&P
Composite 1500. Under the announced policies, our multi-class capital structure would make us ineligible for inclusion in
any of these indices, and as a result, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles that attempt to
passively track these indices will not be investing in our stock."
IMO Peter's conversion from B to A opened the door for the acquisition ! Since they will scoop everything from their passive funds!
What's the price????
If the deal is done and you are the SMART MONEY wouldn't you like to purchase all the stock available??? I mean look at that depressed 39% that sits there! IMO 2 paths are possible depending on how the markets will do over the next 6-12months
1. If markets do well there will be an explosive rally to $3-5 towards the EoY, I bet most of you will take your money and leave at that point, the volatility (shaking) is going to be insane! RSI constantly overbought on divergence the opposite of what's happening now!
2. If markets do bad then 0.90-0.70 will do. I think a big % of retail will give up on new lows or on the first 100-300% rally.
Now IF and i say IF there is a buyout what would be the price? I would like to think of a price higher than the institution's average. Wish right now has no major shareholder (Peter is gone) I think VC's will likely dictate the price.
My guess would be something around 4-6x FY23 sales if markets go well! That should be in the range of 4-6b maybe a little higher depending on how sales would look in 23. That translates to a price of more or less $7-9 or Inside the GAP!!!
*Peter's Thiel Fund sold all of it's shares on the WSB frenzy for an average of $12 i think in the best best best case scenario that's the ceiling!
Do your own research and do not listen and trust nobody! In the end, we are all alone in this game!
Keep calm WGMI!
Wishful thinking? Context Logic
Short Term - We look to Sell at 1.64 (stop at 1.79)
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high. The medium term bias remains bearish. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 1.22 and 1.19
Resistance: 1.65 / 1.85 / 2.50
Support: 1.21 / 1.10 / 1.00
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WISH upside momentumWISH is now a shadow of the company that was rumored that Amazon offered $10 billion all-cash to buy it and Wish's CEO didn`t agree!
Now its value is $1.5Bil
But Investors are confident as WISH approaches its next earnings release.
Analysts expect WISH to post earnings of -$0.10 per share, an year-over-year growth of 52.38%.
Instead the consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $211.19 million, down 72.64% from the prior-year quarter.
Will it reach $3.65 or $5?
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Bearish Trend for WISH Almost Complete P2...If you've been a follower of my analyses on WISH, you would know that this stock has been following a downward channel in a grand Elliot-wave sequence. We are coming close to the end of the impulse, which would be around $1.27. After, we will get an ABC wave to the upper trend-line. There are two ways of interpreting the chart:
1) The wave that's about to finish was impulsive wave 3/5. We then get ABC wave 4, unable to break the channel, followed by the last wave down to penny land (~.75)
or
2) The wave that's about to finish is wave 5, evidence of that being macro oversold conditions. We break channel if this is the case for a short-squeeze, super bullish move.
We are currently in the Bear Market territory that we called last year. The entry for both is the same, bottom of the trendline, historically, Fibonacci 2. Things will get interesting soon so have patience and diligence during these times.
Best,
Ash
WISH LONGWish The Company Suffer From SELL-OFF WITH ALL THE GROWS STOCK Small Caps
Still Have 1.2B In Cash
Have A lot Short TERM Problem
Hyper Grow Stock
1Billon Market Cap Something Like This
P\S To Small
Wish Wyckoff showtimeResults were as expected and clearly belong to the previous management team.No no point for the current team to show any improvements. As stated by the newly appointed team the real turnaround results should be visible somewhere in Q2 2022, so for Q1, I expect a Wyckoff accumulation. Retail is so depressed and tired that eventually nobody will be left except me.
Points looking forward
1. Cash on hand $1b, plenty of time for a turnaround, 0 debt.
2. New C-level executives must prove themselves+receive stock bonuses, so their serious effort is granted.
3. Logistics revenue up 45% YoY, when ad spending resumes this should rocket because shipping times will fall dramatically = happy customers
4. Bad merchants are cleared away, quality is improving slowly but steady = happy customers
5. New redesign in platform launching soon = happy customers
6. Institutional accumulating more and more
7. Everybody(retail) is getting tired and is at a loss of -50% or more, now it's time for a slow death. If markets go up then other stocks will fly and this one will keep accumulating making everyone nervous and anxious, so in the end, everybody will be gone.
My targets for this year
Q1 : $3-3.50
Q2 : $5-7.5
Q3 : $9-12
Q4: $15
My targets for 2023,2024,2025
1. $22
2. $32
3. $60
Stay safe and always have a plan.
#WISH Finally Reversing ?!!Wish been in downtrend for a while we might see a reverse closing 15.09$ wave then will update other than this if the company is not going to be close we must see a reversal :) JK
MANAGE YOUR OWN RISKS this is only my opinion
WISH finally gets a turn aroundNot a financial advisor.
WISH has been badly beaten down. It appears that we will finally see a 3 white solider candle reversal.
We a looking to get a break through the 50 day moving average at $3.19 however it should form an impulse wave before breaking through. I would expect to see a flag form around the $3 mark for healthy chart movement. If it breaks through the 50 MA we will need to see it hold support above the 50 MA in order to show strength.
As you can see numerous indicators are pointing bullish TSI MACD RSI MOM
This will be the spark to the much needed reversal.
Elliot Wave should be a pattern to keep an eye on.
WISH SYMETRICAL FAN PT $302022 complete inverse of 2021. DEMs to continue to play virus card. Virus is good for e-commerce and we just beat the covid high of holiday retail YoY. Let's see what happens.
Wish OCD planWish ocd charting, a dream come true... that's my last ch-art for 2021! Happy new year to everyone
WISHWish (NASDAQ:WISH) seems to be forming a bottom and it will be complete once stock closes above $3.32 on daily charts targeting the 4 areas next.
Future of WISH - Best TAI truly see this playing out - WISH is in a zig-zag pattern (bearish). The 5th wave will end when we touch the bottom trendline. The timeline for this bearishness is 4-6 weeks with a target of $1.7-$2. Depending on the time it takes, the equivalent price on the trendline will be the bottom. We will then get an ABC recovery, following our historical WISH ABC Fractal which will take us to the upper trendline. The only way this gets invalidated is if they release PR early.
Charting WISH is so easy :) Be diligent and good-luck!
Do you think the bottom is in?NASDAQ:WISH I think there could be decent upside now. This is the idea that I am trading.
#NotAFinancialAdvice #DYOR
I WISH things get better I'm not an investor in Wish. I merely trade the ride down. As the market is correcting, expect better deals soon. I will love to see WISH at $2, conforming to my ultimate ultra bear impulse count. If that were to happen, it would be near New Year's Eve, touching the trendline. WISH needs good PR ASAP for the bullish fractal to play. As per my last post, I got in at $3.55 and sold at $3.99 as a trade. Wish will moon one day, but who knows in this market... Already oversold so keep an eye out!
Wishful thinking is needed for investors. Stay diligent & good luck!
Run Wish RunThese lines makes no sense so do not take them seriously at all!
This is an abstract painting!!!
Runnnnnnnnnnnnn
I have no fear left Technicals ✓✓✓ (multiple divergences)
Short ratio ✓✓
Upcoming changes in platform / CEO ✓✓
Retail psychology ✓✓
Institutions buying ✓✓
Lockdowns possibility after x-mas ✓
E-commerce growth - especially mobile ✓
If these are not enough for you in a $2.5b market cap with $1-1.2b in cash, around $2.5b in sales 0 debt and estimation from management to break even during the next Qs i don't know what is.
*Selling shitty products and all the rest comments i read here and there are no-sense... if they were to sell shitty products with one month plus shipping time how the hell did they manage to do Billions in sales? ( you might say ads and high acquisition costs) still they have a beautiful buyers pool which if they play it right:
1. Quality control
2. Higher shipping rates
3. Local pick ups
They can thrive!!! This bet needs a good vision and an even better stomach! if it plays as i see it $100-150b could be on the horizon.
**There is also a chance they get acquired but risk/reward here (possibility of going bankrupt or even become a zombie company in the ERA OF E-COMMERCE) seems too ridiculous for me.
*** I have a position in wish with average cost of $8.5, therefore as of know my estimates are wrong and for sure i was terrible in timing this but i hold and believe on the above. Worst case scenario i lose a bet but in the best case i expect my returns from here to be of minimum 2x. Do your own research and think for yourself
$WISH Wish Context Logic Analysis $Wish Context Logic Analysis
NOTES:
- Wish is currently at all time low-ATL
- There are currently 2 RSI takeaways:
-- RSI Divergence is shown on the chart: followed by price correction, white line chart on RSI
-- RSI Convergence is shown on the chart last week: will follow by price upward momentum, shown in yellow on RSI
TAKEAWAY:
- Price will move higher towards the mid-level support line at around $4.75/s
- WATCH the mid-level support line at $4.75.
-- IF BOUNCE the price will move lower
-- IF BREAK the price will continue to $6/s range
REMEMBER: if you have a stock in mind, let me know I will upload a TA.
Something is cooking here2 key points with huge volume
Do you guys believe Wish is on about to be acquired?
Anything below previous lows is an EXIT from the position for me.
