🟨 FundStrat - Top 10 Worst CPI ReactionsIn 2022 we got 2 of the top 10 Worst CPI Market Reactions
The forward looking returns are quite bullish given the other dates.
Worst
Worst trade of the week GBPCADHolding this trade against sentiment looking for a reversal to happen next week.
🎯 WORST JANUARY SINCE INCEPTION OF NASDAQ?If $IXIC doesn't rally 2.1% on MONDAY we will witness the worst month since inception of $NASDAQ.
So far this title is held by JAN 2008, where we finished down 9.9%
Worst vs RestI was following the x4 OPEX closely last week because options are the market.
The amount of QE liquidity in options over the past 2yrs has been distorting this bull trend for 2 yrs but also causes predicable dips during OPEX.
So it wasn't a surprise Thu-Fri Dip to 20 50 EMA was this predictable.
The only question now remains.
Do we rally back next week OR does the real correction start?
Most of the evidence I observe points to a rally.
But there is a mounting case for further correction to the downside.
Further downside would trigger liquidations and amplify bull capitulation.
Next week is THE week. Christmas Rally or Coal.
Choose a side.
August worst month for Trading? And why? *We just used DXY as the example. This is true across the board!
The Big Drought
A 10-year analysis on the S&P shows that the markets remain the poorest in the three summer months – June, July and August. Most traders tend to sell their positions in May, and try to reinvest in a fresh positions once the summer is over.
August Is the Worst Summer Month
Most investors and Forex traders in Europe and the North America go on holidays during the month of August. This leads to lower trading volume and significant price actions. Just for example: August 2008 was misleadingly good for the S&P, advancing 1%. However, August 2010 was completely miserable for the S&P, dipping 4.5%, and August 2011 was also miserable for the S&P 500, plunging almost 10%. The month is characterized by sideways trends and momentum swings. However, the trend typically breaks right after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., and most traders returns to active trading once again.
Post-Summer Months (September-December)
A surge in trading activity usually occurs just after the end of summer, and traders invest in fresh portfolios and positions. These three months therefore represent the best three months to trade in the year.
Another Vacation Spot during the Second Half of December
Forex traders once again stay away from the market in the second half of the December, and celebrate the Christmas Day and the New Year’s Day.
Winter-Spring Action Still Better
The January-May period returned a mediocre 3% on average for the last 10 years, and therefore still does better than the summer months, providing excellent opportunities for traders, continuously for the first four months of the year.
Thee THREE worst months (Summer): June, July, and particularly, August.
The FOUR best months (Autumn): September, October, November, and December.
The FIVE good Months (Winter-Spring): January, February, March, April, and May
What Is The Reason For This Divide?
Any vacation period represents drying up trading volume, and the months following these vacations represent a refreshing return to trading, like rain after a drought.
USOIL - Third Case, zig-zag for Wave-2Hi,
My third idea for Oil (and the worst of the three) is that we're in a zigzag (5-3-5) pattern for Wave-2. I decided to keep Wave-C above 50% retracement of the larger Wave-2, so that we could actually be in Wave-2 and be impulsive. Doesn't need to be the case.
I don't care because I will be dead before Wave-3 in this case, haha. Something like 2080 before Wave-3.
